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Miscellaneous
Mon, 29 Oct 2012
Severe Storm Sandy Update- Mon 6 PM
As you've heard, Sandy has made landfall south of Atlantic City about 5:15 PM. The models did extremely well in predicting this anomalous storm path. Areas at the shore and areas from PHL and south were maximally impacted by the rainfall and winds. For Philadelphia, the maximum wind and wind gusts are expected between 6 and 9 PM tonight. Incredibly, current barometric pressure is 28.44 and expected to go lower!
Check out this website for earlier posts.
posted: Oct 29 2012 at 6:17 pm
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Sun, 28 Oct 2012Severe Storm Sandy Update- Sun 7 PM
The latest GFS has joined the NOGAPS (which has been the trendsetter in predicting this storm) in moving Sandy to northern NJ, just south of NYC as it retrogrades through NJ, then into northern PA into north central PA. That said, the area of maximum precipitation will still be in our neck of the woods, but the very highest winds may be further north of us. Still, this storm is large and the other features of heavy rain and high sustained winds of 30-40 mph still hold. The storms hits the coast about 7 PM Monday.
The heaviest rains will be Monday from morning through evening, coinciding with the highest winds.
Check out this website for earlier posts.
Here are my concerns about this storm.
I've been following this storm since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 28 2012 at 7:06 pm
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Severe Storm Sandy Update- Sun 1 PM
Not much change with last night's and this morning's models. This storm will be disruptive. The NOGAPS favors taking Sandy into northern NJ while the GFS model has it coming in towards central NJ. It makes little difference, since all the models have kept PHL in the area of maximum precipitation of about 6 or more inches rain, maybe much more. Everything you've heard about this storm remains true, with the tropical Sandy becoming a monster extratropical Nor'easter cyclonic system that retrogrades into PA under the influence of a blocked upper air trough. For "Barometer Fans", the central pressure will pin your barometer down to the rare low of about 28.20 inches! Sustained winds will be 30-35 mph for long periods, with higher gusts.
The heaviest rains will be Monday from morning through evening, coinciding with the highest winds.
Check out this website for earlier posts.
Here are my concerns about this storm.
I've been following this storm since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 28 2012 at 1:59 pm
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Sat, 27 Oct 2012Severe Storm Sandy Update- Sat 11 PM
This afternoon's NOGAPS continued to show the storm hitting the coast further north (North Jersey, NYC or LI). Tonight's NAM model has Sandy coming onshore in North Jersey, near NYC about 6 PM Monday. The all important NOGAPS and GFS models don't become available for another hour or so.
Despite a likely shift to a bit further north, the precipitation shield is highest in our area, with at least 6 inches of rain occurring with sustained winds of 30-40 mph. The heaviest rains will be from morning through midnight on Monday. Updates tomorrow.
Check out this website for earlier posts.
Here are my concerns about this storm.
I've been following this storm since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 27 2012 at 11:25 pm
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Severe Storm Sandy Update- Sat 4 PM
While this morning's NOGAPS gave some hope that the storm would move away to our north and east, the latest GFS and NAM models continue predicting the track of the storm into southern NJ. Still not sure if this recent run of the NOGAPS was a fluke or a trend setter. Stay tuned.website for earlier posts.
Here are my concerns about this storm.
I've been following this storm since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 27 2012 at 4:10 pm
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Severe Storm Sandy Update- Sat 12 PM
The latest NOGAPS just available keeps Sandy offshore from us and heading into New England! I know the official track is into Delaware, but this model run of the NOGAPS is the first suggesting a major shift in the path of the storm that would reduce its impact on us. Will have to see if this trend is picked up by the other models. You heard it here first! Check my website for earlier posts.
Here are my concerns about this storm.
I've been following this storm since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 27 2012 at 12:26 pm
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Severe Storm Sandy Update- Sat 9 AM
Last night's NOGAPS and GFS continue to show Sandy transitioning from a hurricane to an extratropical Nor'easter that undergoes explosive cyclogenesis as it retrogrades westward into the NJ shore. The trend has been for more of a central/northern NJ coastline entry, but due to it's transition to an extratropical cyclone, its size will affect large areas, regardless of where the center moves.
Rainfall totals will range from 6-13 inches of water and central barometric pressure is expected to be about 28.15 inches mercury. (Average sea level pressure is just short of 30.00 inches). Winds are expected to be a sustained 30 mph with higher gusts near 50 or more.
Rain starts Sunday, but the actual storm effects of wind and heavy rains will begin before daybreak on Monday and increase during the day as the storm moves onshore around Monday evening or night.
Here are my concerns about this storm.
I've been following this storm since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 27 2012 at 9:03 am
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Fri, 26 Oct 2012Severe Storm Sandy Update- Fri 11PM
The latest NAM model just available supports the NOGAPS in timing with Sandy coming onshore (in cental NJ) about 6 pm Monday evening. New NOGAPS wont be avaiable until after midnight.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 11:31 pm
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Severe Storm Sandy Update- Fri Eve
This afternoon's model runs are in- the NOGAPS continues with the storm retrograding towards the NJ coast and over Philadelphia! The ECMWF is similar to the NOGAPS. The GFS brings it up further towards Long Island, but retrogrades it back towards NJ and Pennsylvania.
Earlier today, it appeared that the trend was a bit away from us and less intense, but these model runs restore the storm track and intensity to that expected yesterday.
The big issue still is timing, with the NOGAPS at least 12 hours earlier with the storm than the GFS. The NOGAPS has landfall in NJ early evening Monday, while the GFS has it waiting until Tuesday morning. That said, the early effects of the storm will be felt by Monday morning, with rain starting as early as Sunday afternoon. Updates late tonight or tomorrow morning.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 7:53 pm
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Severe Storm Sandy Update- Fri Afternoon
The latest models are looking more optimistic for our PHL area, keeping Sandy off the coast to the vicinity of Long Island, then retrograding it westward to Northern NJ. This would keep a direct strike away from our area. Both the NOGAPS, NAM and GFS seem to have made this change. Updates later.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model. Updates later.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 12:52 pm
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Severe Storm Sandy Commentary- Fri AM
From a meteorologist's point of view, this upcoming storm will be very impressive and interesting. Barometers will be pinned to very low readings and the duration of the storm will be memorable.
Looking over the models and expected surface features (wind, rain), I don't believe we, in the immediate Philadelphia area and suburbs, will see hurricane force winds or items being blow across streets.
The main concerns with this storm in the PHL area will be the long duration of heavy rain, stream and urban flooding, and power disruptions from trees. Rainfall totals are likely to be 6-12 inches with locally higher amounts by sometime Tuesday. With so many leaves falling from trees, and trees falling as well, obstruction of normal street draining will be the main difficult, making driving extremely hazardous. In center city, you are in an area that doesn't experience frequent power disruptions, this will just be a very miserable two or three days of wind-swept rains.
At the immediate NJ shore, things will be more significant with, higher winds, flooding and possibly significant wind damage.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model. Updates later.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 11:36 am
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Severe Storm Sandy Update- Fri AM
There have been few changes in the models from yesterday, although the GFS and NOGAPS models are more similar in time frame a bit- the real action begins Sunday evening and continues through Monday. The NOGAPS continues to bring the hurricane/extratropical storm into NJ and PA, while the GFS keeps the storm off shore until almost NYC, then retrogrades it into NJ/PA. Both models show explosive cyclogeneis of the tropical system into an extratropically structured Nor'easter. The NOGAPS shows earlier weakening on Tuesday, while the GFS maintains a deep active cyclonic structure through early Wednesday.
Sat 10/27: Cloudy and mild. Some light showers late in the day. High 70
Sun 10/28: Cloudy with light showers, becoming heavier in the evening. Winds start increasing during the afternoon and evening. High 60.
Mon 10/29: Depending on the track- Severe Nor'easter- heaviest rains and strong winds either in the morning (NOGAPS or in the afternoon and evening (GFS model). High 59. Winds 30-40mph with higher gusts. Locally heavy rains, some flooding in urban areas possible. Stormy conditions continue into Tuesday.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
The current track on the NOGAPS is now being adopted by the National Hurricane center, which has an increasingly similar track. This remains to be a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm and needs to be watched. Updates tomorrow.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 9:57 am
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Thu, 25 Oct 2012Hurricane Sandy Update- Thurs Eve
The latest NOGAPS model continues to forecast explosive cyclogenesis with Sandy, as a transition from a hurricane to an extratropical monster Nor'easter occurs off of the NJ/DE shoreline and then negatively tilts toward a westward track into Pennsylvania! High winds and flooding rains still predicted to occur, with possibly devastating effects at the shore due to high astronomical tides associated with a full moon. The timeframe of the NOGAPS brings the storm into NJ/PA late Sunday into Monday, with rain as early as Saturday evening.
The latest GFS model has a somewhat similar track as the NOGAPS, BUT is slower in bringing the storm into the NJ coast. It has the storm not moving inland until Monday night and Tuesday morning. Incredibly, the GFS model has the storm even stronger than the NOGAPS!
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
The current track on the NOGAPS is now being adopted by the National Hurricane center, which has an increasingly similar track. This remains to be a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm and needs to be watched. Updates tomorrow.
posted: Oct 25 2012 at 7:44 pm
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Hurricane Sandy Update- Thurs PM
The latest NOGAPS model continues to forecast explosive cyclogenesis with Sandy, as a transition from a hurricane to an extratropical monster Nor'easter occurs off of the NJ/DE shoreline and then negatively tilts toward a westward track into Pennsylvania! High winds and flooding rains still predicted to occur, with possibly devastating effects at the shore due to high astronomical tides associated with a full moon. The big change is the timeframe, which now is now similar to the slower GFS model, with the peak effects occuring Sunday night into Monday, as it comes onshore. The other change is the appearance that it may stay more tropical and somewhat smaller upon landfall, and then become more extratropical and larger in structure and size.
The current track on the NOGAPS is now being adopted by the National Hurricane center, which has an increasingly similar track. This remains to be a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm and needs to be watched. Updates later.
posted: Oct 25 2012 at 12:52 pm
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Wed, 24 Oct 2012Possible Major Storm Sunday into Monday- Wed PM Update
The latest two runs of the NOGAPS model continues to have Hurricane Sandy undergo explosive cyclogenesis as it transforms to a severe Nor'easter near the New Jersey coast and phases with the upper air trough associated with a stallling cold front. The tilt of the system becomes extremely negative and the storm moves westward and inland. (Even the latest GFS has this event occuring, although the GFS waits for it to move toward New England.) With the NOGAPS, having much continuity from model run to model run, confidence in the storm disrupting and affecting our area is increasing. The NOGAPS has rain moving in as early as late Saturday afternoon with at least 24 hours of high winds and very heavy rains.
Stay tuned for updates.
posted: Oct 24 2012 at 6:32 pm
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Possible Major Storm Sunday into Monday- Wednesday Update
Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to move up from the Caribbean, intensify along the eastern Florida coastline, possibly become a hurricane, and then move up along the east coast of the US, possibly coming inland around NJ as a hurricane or major extratropical Nor'easter.
While the computer models show varying tracks, with some of them keeping the storm far off the coast, my regular readers know I favor the Navy NOGAPS model for predicting tropical tracks. The NOGAPS takes this tropical storm/hurricane and transforms it into a dangerous extratropical monster-- a deep Nor'easter that brushes the NJ coastline and affects eastern PA with heavy rains and high winds. Should the NOGAPS be correct, this would be a major disruptive storm.
Wednesday AM Update: The NOGAPS and the European ECMWF models continue with the idea of intense deepening of this system undergoing almost "explosive cyclogenesis" as the tropical storm that moves westward to phase with the slow moving upper air trough/cold front. The NOGAPS is faster with bringing the storm into our area, with rain starting by late Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday. The ECMWF moves the timeframe from Sunday into Monday.
The GFS continues with curving the storm track away from PA and NJ, although its track has moved westwart last night.
posted: Oct 24 2012 at 8:53 am
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Tue, 23 Oct 2012Possible Major Storm Sunday into Monday- Tues Update
A tropical storm is expected to move up from the Caribbean, intensify along the eastern Florida coastline, possibly become a hurricane, and then move up along the east coast of the US, possibly coming inland around NY or New England as a Hurricane or major extratropical Nor'easter.
While the computer models show varying tracks, with some of them keeping the storm far off the coast, my regular readers know I favor the Navy NOGAPS model for predicting tropical tracks. The NOGAPS takes this tropical storm/hurricane and transforms it into a dangerous extratropical monster-- a deep Nor'easter that brushes the NJ coastline and affects eastern PA with heavy rains and high winds. Should the NOGAPS be correct, this would be a major disruptive storm. This situation needs to be watched. Updates tomorrow.
posted: Oct 23 2012 at 8:27 am
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Thu, 18 Oct 2012Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu PM
A frontal system associated with a deep surface and upper low pressure system will pass through on Friday, giving us some rain early Friday. Skies are expected to clear later Friday as large high pressure moves in from the west. The large surface high should keep skies clear and dry for the weekend. ( An upper air closed low may bring some clouds, so there is some uncertainty in the forecast. ) Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the weekend and even moderate further next week.
Sat 10/20: Mostly sunny, some clouds in the afternoon. High 66.
Sun 10/21: Sunny and very pleasant. High 65.
posted: Oct 18 2012 at 11:15 pm
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Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu PM
A frontal system associated with a deep surface and upper low pressure system will pass through on Friday, giving us some rain early Friday. Skies are expected to clear later Friday as large high pressure moves in from the west. The large high will keep skies clear and dry for the weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the weekend and even moderate further next week.
Sat 10/20: Sunny and beautiful with some fair weather clouds in the afternoon. High 66.
Sun 10/21: Sunny and very pleasant. High 65.
posted: Oct 18 2012 at 7:29 pm
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Fri, 12 Oct 2012Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri PM
A large area of cold high pressure will drift over our region Friday night into Saturday. Colder temps will be with us tonight and Saturday. A return flow of much milder air on Sunday will push temps back over 70.
Sat 10/13: Sunny, crisp and cool. High 58.
Sun 10/14: Sunny, mild and beautiful. High 73.
posted: Oct 12 2012 at 5:52 pm
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Fri, 05 Oct 2012Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri PM
Highly amplified jetstream will cause a front to stall after it passes through our area on Saturday. Low pressure will form along the front giving us rain Sunday late morning and afternoon. The atmosphere chills down considerably with the frontal passage and we expect high temperatures to be at most near 50 on Sunday.
Sat 10/6: Clouds in the morning, partial clearing in the late afternoon. High 62.
Sun 10/7: Cloudy and chilly. Rain develops by in the morning and lasts most of the day. High 51.
posted: Oct 05 2012 at 11:47 pm
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Thu, 04 Oct 2012Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu PM
Highly amplified jetstream will cause a front to stall after it passes through our area on Saturday. Low pressure will form along the front giving us rain Sunday late morning and afternoon. The atmosphere chills down considerably with the frontal passage and we expect high temperatures to be at most 50 on Sunday.
Sat 10/6: Clouds in the morning, clearing in the afternoon. High 62.
Sun 10/7: Cloudy and chilly. Rain develops by late morning. High 50.
posted: Oct 04 2012 at 9:51 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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