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Miscellaneous
Mon, 31 Dec 2007
Weather Update- Forget the snow
This morning's NAM model has things much warmer at the ground on Tuesday. Some rain, likely mixed with wet snow, as the front goes through late Tuesday morning. (More snow to our far north.) Skies clear in the afternoon, but windy conditions expected. Things looked much different yesterday.
Happy New Year!
Speaking of the New Year, once we get past the next several days of cold, dry weather, things really will warm up for us by next week.
posted: Dec 31 2007 at 5:18 pm
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Sun, 30 Dec 2007Weekend Weather Update - Sun PM [2]
Low pressure moving up the coast will bring rain about 4 PM to our area. Moderate rains this evening, will change to sleet and then light snow a few hours before ending before daybreak. Warmer ground temps and wet surfaces will keep accumulations to, at most, a wet coating in the immediate Philadelphia area. Exact amounts impossible to determine.
For the Mummers on Tuesday, a strong front will be moving through during the morning. The GFS model has about 1-2 inches of snow during the morning here in Philadelphia, although above freezing surface temps may limit accumulation to much less. Too soon to tell. Strong winds during the morning and especially the afternoon may present a problem for Mummers.
posted: Dec 30 2007 at 6:41 pm
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Weekend Weather Update - Sun PM
Low pressure moving up the coast will bring rain about 4 PM to our area. Moderate rains this evening, will change to sleet and then light snow a few hours before ending before daybreak. Warmer ground temps and wet surfaces will keep accumulations to, at most, a wet coating in the immediate Philadelphia area. Exact amounts impossible to determine.
For the Mummers on Tuesday, a strong front will be moving through during the morning. The GFS model has about 2 inches of snow during the morning here in Philadelphia. Strong winds during the morning and especially the afternoon may present a problem for Mummers.
posted: Dec 30 2007 at 5:11 pm
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Weekend Weather - Sun AM
Low pressure moving up the coast will bring rain about 4 PM to our area. Rain, heavy at night, will change to light snow a few hours before ending. Ground temperatures will be at or above freezing, so little or no accumulation, perhaps only a wet coating, is expected in the immediate Philadelphia area, more north and west.
For the mummers on Tuesday, windy conditions with possible light rain/snow showers during the afternoon before a strong cold front moves through.
Sun 12/30: Some bright spots in the early morning, then cloudy. High 45. Rain will develop around 4-5 PM and become heavy during the evening. Towards morning, the rain will mix with sleet and then snow before ending at daybreak on Monday. Warmer temps will keep accumulations to, at most, a wet coating in the immediate Philadelphia area.
posted: Dec 30 2007 at 8:39 am
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Sat, 29 Dec 2007Weekend Weather - Sat PM Update
Mild conditions will fade on Sunday as somewhat colder air moves in, giving us partly cloudy skies. Another storm is expected to develop and slide off to our south and east on Sunday night.
Model Trends: The precip will start earlier (Sunday afternoon) and the atmosphere will be warmer during much of the precipitation. Mostly rain!
A very cold outbreak will affect the East coast by late Tuesday (New Years Day) into Wednesday. Temperatures may not get out of the 20s on Wednesday! The cold outbreak will affect areas as far south as Florida.
Sun 12/30: Some sun in the morning, then becoming cloudy during the afternoon. High 45. Rain will develop during the afternoon, mix with sleet and then snow before ending daybreak on Monday. Warmer temps will keep accumulations to just a wet coating in the immediate Philadelphia area.
posted: Dec 29 2007 at 6:14 pm
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Weekend Weather - Sat AM Update
Mild conditions will fade on Sunday as somewhat colder air moves in, giving us partly cloudy skies. Another storm is expected to develop and slide off to our south and east on Sunday night.
Last night's NAM and GFS models shows a somewhat warmer atmosphere than had been showing earlier. It looks like it will be mostly rain in the Philadelphia area Sunday night.
A very cold outbreak will affect the East coast by late Tuesday (New Years Day) into Wednesday. Temperatures may not get out of the 20s on Wednesday! The cold outbreak will affect areas as far south as Florida.
Sat 12/29: Showers ending in the early morning, then becoming partly sunny and windy. High 52
Sun 12/30: Sunny in the morning, then becoming cloudy during the afternoon. High 45. Rain will develop at night, mix with sleet and then snow before daybreak. Warmer temps will keep accumulations to just a wet coating in the immediate Philadelphia area.
posted: Dec 29 2007 at 8:01 am
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Fri, 28 Dec 2007Possible light snow Sunday Night- Fri PM Update
I'm still on vacation, in much warmer climes, but keeping track of the Philadelphia weather when I get the chance.:-)
Low pressure, moving up along a frontal boundary will cause rain on Saturday, especially the morning hours. Mild conditions will fade on Sunday as colder air moves in, giving us partly cloudy skies. Another storm is expected to develop and slide off to our south and east on Sunday night. The NOGAPS model and the GFS statistical ensemble, as well as the Canadian ensemble, has light snow here late Sunday night, tapering on Monday.
Tonight's WRF-NAM model has 2-3 inches of snow by daybreak Monday morning.
It looks like a very cold outbreak will affect the East coast by late Tuesday (New Years Day) into Wednesday. Temperatures may not get out of the 20s on Wednesday! The cold outbreak will affect areas as far south as Florida.
Sat 12/29: Showers ending in the early morning, then becoming partly sunny and windy. High 50
Sun 12/30: Sunny in the morning, then becoming cloudy during the afternoon. High 45. Rain will develop at night, mix with sleet and become all snow later Sunday night. 2-3 inches possible by daybreak on Monday. Further north and west, precip amounts will be less.
posted: Dec 28 2007 at 10:26 pm
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Possible light snow Sunday Night
I'm still on vacation, in much warmer climes, but keeping track of the Philadelphia weather when I get the chance.:-)
Low pressure, moving up along a frontal boundary will cause rain on Saturday, especially the morning hours. Mild conditions will fade on Sunday as colder air moves in, giving us partly cloudy skies. Another storm is expected to develop and slide off to our south and east on Sunday night. The NOGAPS model and the GFS statistical ensemble, as well as the Canadian ensemble, has light snow here late Sunday night, tapering on Monday. (The GFS model has us too far north.)
It looks like a very cold outbreak will affect the East coast by late Tuesday (New Years Day) into Wednesday. Temperatures may not get out of the 20s on Wednesday! The cold outbreak will affect areas as far south as Florida.
posted: Dec 28 2007 at 7:45 am
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Thu, 27 Dec 2007Still Away [2]
I'm still on vacation, in much warmer climes, but keeping track of the Philadelphia weather when I get the chance.:-)
Low pressure, moving up along a frontal boundary will cause rain on Saturday, especially the morning hours. Mild conditions will fade on Sunday as colder air moves in, giving us partly cloudy skies. Another storm is expected to develop and slide off to our south and east on Sunday night. The NOGAPS model has light snow here before daybreak on Monday. The GFS and DGEX models keep it to our south.
It looks like a very cold outbreak will affect the East coast by late Tuesday (New Years Day) into Wednesday. Temperatures may not get out of the 20s on Wednesday! The cold outbreak will affect areas as far south as Florida.
posted: Dec 27 2007 at 10:02 pm
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Still Away
I'm still away, in much warmer climes, but keeping track of the Philadelphia weather when I get the chance.:-)
Low pressure, moving up along a frontal boundary will cause rain on Saturday, especially the morning hours. Mild conditions will fade on Sunday as somewhat colder air moves in, giving us partly cloudy skies.
It looks like a very cold outbreak will affect the East coast by late Tuesday (New Years Day) into Wednesday. Temperatures may not get out of the 20s on Wednesday! The cold outbreak will affect areas as far south as Florida.
No snow seen for our area of any consequence at this time.
posted: Dec 27 2007 at 4:55 pm
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Tue, 18 Dec 2007Vacation
The Weatherguy.net will be off duty for the next week or so. The weather will have to continue on without me. :-)
Check back around Dec 30th for updated weather info.
Happy Holidays! And thanks for making theweatherguy.net your alternative source of real weather info for the Philadelphia area!
posted: Dec 18 2007 at 8:11 pm
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Sun, 16 Dec 2007Storm Update - Sunday AM [2]
The Upper low is still in Ohio this morning. It's not clear how dry the afternoon will be or how many breaks in the clouds, if any, we'll see. I'm wondering if the models are handling the current configuration that well. Will be interesting to see if the precip cuts off as shown by the NAM
Sun 12/16: Rain will taper off by noon today, with a scattered light showers possible this afternoon. Winds subside about noon, but pick up from the northwest mid afternoon with strong gusts, as colder air rushes in. Chance of a snow shower this evening. Highs in the 40s, falling towards freezing later this afternoon.
posted: Dec 16 2007 at 10:22 am
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Storm Update - Sunday AM
The double centered low pressure will consolidate over CT later this morning and precipitation will end as we enter the dry slot.
Winds will die down as we approach noon, then cold, drier air will begin to rush in behind the low for later in the afternoon. We may even see some breaks of blue sky and some sun later. A few snow showers are possible this evening.
Sun 12/16: Rain will taper off by noon today, with just a scattered light shower possible this afternoon. Most of the afternoon dry. Winds subside about noon, but pick up from the northwest mid afternoon with strong gusts, as colder air rushes in. Some breaks in the clouds likely especially later afternoon. Chance of a snow shower this evening. Highs in the 40s, falling towards freezing later this afternoon.
posted: Dec 16 2007 at 7:51 am
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Sat, 15 Dec 2007Storm Update - Sat Afternoon
The NAM continues to advertise well over an inch of water falling after midnight and before daybreak Sunday. This heavy rain will cause some small stream and urban flooding late tonight and before daybreak.
The temperature has been a bit colder than predicted by the models, and I think from areas north and west of Philadelphia, there will be a fair amount of sleet and freezing rain before the turn-over to all rain after midnight. Temperatures will slowly rise during the night, but perhaps not until 3 AM, then they move towards the 40s, if the models are correct.
With all the models showing similar things, there isn't much likelihood of much surprises. The only [unlikely] possibility is that coastal development occurs further south than predicted by the models, giving us a colder storm. Only one ensemble model member suggests this.
Sun 12/16: Rain, heavy very early, in the morning, tapering during the morning to mostly cloudy conditions with light scattered showers in the afternoon. Some snow showers possible after 5 PM. High near 48, plummeting to 30 by early evening. High winds, especially early morning and especially later afternoon. Very windy and cold Sunday night.
posted: Dec 15 2007 at 5:02 pm
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Storm Update - Sat AM
The latest NAM and GFS model raw data has become available. Very similar with temperature profiles, with surface temperatures warming above freezing by midnight tonight in Philadelphia, somewhat later north and west. The NAM has forecasted extremely heavy rain late tonight, before daybreak Sunday. Windy conditions. Rain will taper off after noon on Sunday, with just light showers at times.
Sat 12/15: Some sun early, then becoming increasingly cloudy. Light precip, mostly sleet (with some snow flakes) starts about 7-10 PM, then changes quickly to a mix of sleet and rain, then rain. Rain becomes very heavy towards morning. Urban flooding possible some areas late tonight. High 38.
Sun 12/16: Rain, heavy very early, in the morning, tapering during the morning to light showers in the afternoon. Continued cloudy some snow showers after 5 PM. High near 48, plummeting to 30 by early evening. High winds, especially early morning and again later afternoon. Very windy and cold Sunday night.
posted: Dec 15 2007 at 11:04 am
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Fri, 14 Dec 2007Weekend Weather Update - Fri PM
The NAM and GFS models are similar enough for this approaching storm. Precipitation starts with light snow/sleet between 7-9PM changing to all sleet and freezing rain. Ground temperatures remain at or below freezing for areas north and west of Philadelphia until before daybreak on Sunday. Then heavy rain for the morning, tapering in the afternoon.
The NAM continues with light rain, through the afternoon, with rain showers changing back to snow showers about 5 PM Sunday. Temperatures plummet early Sunday evening into the 20s with high winds. The GFS has mostly cloudiness Sunday afternoon, snow showers late afternoon.
Sat 12/15: Some sun early, then becoming increasingly cloudy. Light precip, mostly sleet (with some snow flakes) starts about 7-9 PM, then changes quickly to all sleet and freezing rain. Rain becomes heavier towards morning. High 36.
Sun 12/16: Rain, heavy early, in the morning, tapering after 1 PM to showers. Snow showers after 5 PM as temperatures plummet into the 20s. with winds. High 35.
posted: Dec 14 2007 at 3:19 pm
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Weekend Weather Update - Fri AM
The latest models have the approaching storm later on Saturday and the warm core of the storm will be close enough that this will be a essentially rain event, except for areas in central Pennsylvania and west.
The precip may start as sleet Saturday evening, but will quickly turn to heavy rain. There is a concern that there may be some freezing rain at the onset which may linger, especially north and west of the city.
The models are having the storm develop right over us, with the triple point moving through. Some thunder/lightning is even possible with this storm.
Sat 12/15: Some sun early, then becoming cloudy. Some light snow, mostly sleet starts about 6-10 PM then changes quickly to freezing rain, then rain during the night. Heavy rain at night. High 36.
Sun 12/16: Around daybreak, Rain changes back to snow showers before ending. Cold and windy conditions develop in the afternoon, possibly some breaks in the clouds. High 35.
I'll keep an eye on this one!
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posted: Dec 14 2007 at 6:05 am
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Thu, 13 Dec 2007Weekend Weather Update - Thurs PM
The latest models have the approaching storm on Saturday reaching us somewhat later and the warm core of the storm will be close enough that this will be a essentially rain event, except for areas in central Pennsylvania and west.
The precip may start as sleet Saturday evening, but will quickly turn to heavy rain. There is a concern that there may be some freezing rain at the onset which may linger, especially north and west of the city.
The models are having the storm develop right over us, with the triple point moving through. Some thunder/lightning is even possible with this storm.
Looking at the maps, we have to keep our eye on the amount of cold air just to our north. If high pressure builds further south, it may supress the system eastward, giving us snow. That's my two cents...the 20 stastical ensemble runs of the GFS suggest this possibility, but the regular models don't seem to show that.
Sat 12/15: Becoming cloudy. Sleet starts about 5-7PM then changes quickly to freezing rain, then rain during the evening and night. Heavy rain possible at night. High 35.
Sun 12/16: Around daybreak, Rain changes back to snow showers before ending. Cold and windy conditions develop in the afternoon, possibly some breaks in the clouds. High 35.
I'll keep an eye on this one!
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posted: Dec 13 2007 at 5:52 pm
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Wed, 12 Dec 2007Active Weather Pattern - Wed PM
First, for Thursday, some heavy rain during the day which may start as sleet and end as sleet. No snow or accumulation in Philadelphia expected for Thursday
For late afternoon on Saturday, the approaching storm will bring in warm air aloft. While it may start as some snow and sleet, it will quickly turn to all sleet and freezing rain in the immediate Philadelphia area, then rain into Sunday morning. Cold air may rush in Sunday morning to turn it back to snow, but only a coating to an inch is expected at this time.
Sat 12/15: Becoming cloudy. Light snow starts between 3 and 5 PM, then changes to sleet and freezing rain, then rain during the evening and night. High 35. Heavy rain possible at night.
Sun 12/16: Rain changes back to snow showers before ending. Windy conditions develop in the afternoon, possibly some breaks in the clouds. High 35.
Things continue to change, so stay tuned.
posted: Dec 12 2007 at 6:58 pm
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Active Weather Pattern - Wed AM
While it will be stormy Saturday night through much of Sunday, I don't expect a "snow storm" at this time. Looks like mostly rain with sleet in the Philadelphia area.
First, for Thursday, some heavy rain during the day which may start and mix with sleet at times. No snow in Philadelphia expected for Thursday at this time.
At this time, the large storm expected for Sunday doesn't look like we'll get much snow in the Philadelphia area. Last night's GFS was more progressive, meaning that the jet stream is positively tilted and the storm will move away faster than thought. Additionally, the storm track will put us on the warmer side of the storm, with a mix of rain sleet and snow. There may be some snow and sleet and ice problems at the start, Saturday evening and night.
posted: Dec 12 2007 at 7:37 am
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Tue, 11 Dec 2007Large Nor'Easter Forecast for this Weekend- Tues PM
Before we get to Sunday, there may be sleet on Thursday, as temperatures will be moving downward and there may be cold air at the surface.
The models continue with a major winter storm to move into our area late Saturday through Sunday. The storm undergoes explosive cyclogenesis near us as it slowly moves away.
There is a range of solutions forecast by the models. The NOGAPS has us on the cold side of the low, but the low is so far offshore, that we get little in the way of snow.
The GFS and the DGEX (a combination of the ETA and GFS models) shows the low pressure system exploding right over us, but with much warm air trapped, it will be start as snow, then change to sleet then heavy rain and then back to snow Sunday night before ending, with accumulations not impressive.
The statistical ensemble, a set of 16-20 runs of the GFS model with known statistical perturbations introduced, shows only a 60-70% chance of snow for Philadelphia. This sounds high, but below 80%, we generally get a mix of sleet and rain.
In the event that the storm develops half-way between the NOGAPS and the GFS, we'd have a major snowstorm here on Sunday.
Right now, I'd favor the GFS/DGEX model. Either way, it's gonna be interesting for barometer fans out there.
posted: Dec 11 2007 at 8:59 pm
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Pattern Continues- Big Storm on Sunday??- Tues Update
The same pattern of clouds and over-running moisture continues through Thursday, with heavier rain expected on Thursday. High pressure builds in for Friday and early Saturday.
The GFS model has jumped onto a solution first posed by the NOGAPS model a few days ago, with a major storm affecting us late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday's storm may be a rain storm changing to snow storm. Details too early to call as this time. The NOGAPS now has the major development north and east of us, while the GFS has a bombogenesis occuring right over us.
posted: Dec 11 2007 at 7:14 am
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Mon, 10 Dec 2007Uncertain Week Forecast - Mon AM
The heavier rain predicted by the models for last night didn't occur.
The same poorly defined pattern of warm air over-running colder air at the surface, with small areas of low pressure running up along a stalled frontal boundary will continue through Friday. Exact timing of heavier rain will continue to elude the models.
More uncertain is next weekend's forecast. The GFS has us finally clearing out with high pressure building in. The NOGAPS has a deep, low pressure system affecting us Saturday through Sunday. We'll have to see!
posted: Dec 10 2007 at 7:20 am
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Sun, 09 Dec 2007Sunday Forecast Update
The latest models have changed their tune again for today. The NAM and GFS has most of the rain now waiting for the evening hours. Much of the afternoon will be just cloudy....any precip will be scattered and light. The Eagles will be playing in better conditions than previously thought.
Again, confidence in this forecast is below average.
Sun 12/9: Mostly cloudy this afternoon. Showers pick up late in the afternoon and heavier rain this evening. High 41
posted: Dec 09 2007 at 11:34 am
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Sunday Forecast- Update
The uncertainty of this weekend's forecast has just manifested itself, as precipitation has moved into our area 12 hours before the models had predicted. So much for the GFS accuracy for today.
The rapid onset of precipitation, along with building high pressure to our north will cause this precipitation to be ice and freezing rain in areas north of Philadelphia. Again, this was not captured by the models.
For Sunday, it appears that we may have frozen precip in the morning, despite the models having it otherwise. It should turn to plain rain as the day progresses. Obviously, confidence in this forecast isn't high, as the near-term model forecast is already in error.
Sun 12/9: Freezing rain and sleet likely before daybreak in Philadelphia and areas north. Changing to rain. High 41 late in the day. Check back for updates.
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posted: Dec 09 2007 at 1:15 am
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Sat, 08 Dec 2007Sunday Forecast
The GFS model didn't do too badly today. The sun broke out, even earlier than expected.
For Sunday, the GFS and NAM are in surprising agreement, with very light precipitation (drizzle, light showers) starting as early as noon or 1 PM on Sunday, then gradually increasing in intensity, as temperatures stay steady or warm.
Sun 12/9: After a clear night, becoming mostly cloudy by daybreak. Light drizzle and showers start as early as noon-1 PM and increase during the afternoon and night. High 41.
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posted: Dec 08 2007 at 8:48 pm
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Fri, 07 Dec 2007Uncertain Weekend Forecast Continued- Fri PM [2]
Specifics of the upcoming weekend forecast continue to be difficult to discern. An over-running pattern of warm air over cold surface air is developing.
There is already evidence that the models aren't capturing the scenario very accurately. The NAM is out to lunch, with a very dry forecast for today, Friday. The GFS is underestimating the precipitation and is over-estimating the temperatures aloft. As a result, we're getting more snow this afternoon than either model showed.
When the models get the near time period wrong, you can't really be confident about the later periods. Anyhow, the GFS has more light precip for Saturday morning, but with the sun breaking out by the afternoon.
The 1 PM run of the GFS has precipitation waiting until the afternoon on Sunday.
Here's the best guess for the weekend. Confidence is low and details may change.:
Sat 12/8: Light showers or drizzle in the morning, some sun in the afternoon. High 46.
Sun 12/9: Becoming cloudy by noon, then light rain later in the afternoon and night.
posted: Dec 07 2007 at 5:16 pm
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Uncertain Weekend Forecast Continued- Fri PM
Specifics of the upcoming weekend forecast continue to be difficult to discern. An over-running pattern of warm air over cold surface air is developing.
There is already evidence that the models aren't capturing the scenario very accurately. The NAM is out to lunch, with a very dry forecast for today, Friday. The GFS is underestimating the precipitation and is over-estimating the temperatures aloft. As a result, we're getting more snow this afternoon than either model showed.
When the models get the near time period wrong, you can't really be confident about the later periods. Anyhow, the GFS has more light precip for Saturday morning, but with the sun breaking out by the afternoon.
If skies really clear Saturday afternoon and early evening, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop enough that the precip on Sunday will start as ice pellets or freezing rain.
Here's the best guess for the weekend. Confidence is low and details may change.:
Sat 12/8: Light showers or drizzle in the morning, some sun in the afternoon. High 46.
Sun 12/9: Mostly cloudy with sleet or freezing rain in the early morning, then a chance of showers or drizzle later in the day. Temperatures in the 30s rise in the evening to the 40s.
posted: Dec 07 2007 at 2:16 pm
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Thu, 06 Dec 2007Uncertain Weekend Forecast- Thurs PM
Specifics of the upcoming weekend forecast are difficult to discern. The cold pattern will relax somewhat over the coming several days, as warm more humid air in an upper southwesterly flow works its way in. Should the warm flow move in principally aloft, an over-running condition will set up with clouds and very light showers/rain at times. The weekend will be mostly dry, but with considerable cloudiness. No large disturbances will affect us until next week, but these weak over-running impulses will be hard to time. The precipitation will be predominantly wet, not frozen, unless some of this light precip occurs in the cold pre-dawn hours.
Here's the best guess for the weekend. Timing of precip and amount of cloud cover may change:
Sat 12/8: Light showers or drizzle in the morning, cloudy in the afternoon. High 44.
Sun 12/9: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers or drizzle through the day. High 42.
posted: Dec 06 2007 at 6:18 pm
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Uncertain Weekend Forecast- Thurs AM
Specifics of the upcoming weekend forecast are difficult to discern. The cold pattern will relax somewhat over the coming several days, as warm more humid air in an upper southwesterly flow works its way in. Should the warm flow move in principally aloft, an over-running condition will set up with clouds and very light showers/rain at times. The weekend will be mostly dry, but necessarily very sunny. No large disturbances will affect us until next week, but these weak over-running impulses will be hard to time. The precipitation will be predominantly wet, not frozen, unless some of this light precip occurs in the cold pre-dawn hours.
This pattern, while not imminently a problem, may result in a more significant snowstorm later next week as cold air re-establishes itself here.
posted: Dec 06 2007 at 11:29 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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