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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
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Fri, 26 Nov 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
Sat 11/27: High pressure builds in behind a cold front. Sunny skies, windy and cold temps with high of 44.
Sun 11/21: High pressure remains over us providing sunny skies, less wind and cold temps. High 46.
Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter.

posted: Nov 26 2010 at 1:57 pm

[/weather/nov10] permanent link
Thu, 25 Nov 2010
First Snow Flakes of the Season -Thurs AM
I haven't been paying attention to the model details this week, but the first snow flakes of the season are falling here at 10AM. Checking the GFS model output, it did show snow for just about this time frame, due to cold air aloft. (Surface temps are about 40 degrees.) Things are expect to quickly change to light rain in about an hour or so.
Light rain of varying intensities is expected through mid-day Friday with the lightest precip later tonight, picking up Friday morning.

posted: Nov 25 2010 at 10:55 am

[/weather/nov10] permanent link
Wed, 24 Nov 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Wed AM
The latest models have a less potent low pressure system affecting us on Thursday, Thanksgiving day. Only light rain expected during the afternoon hours. The actual frontal system associated with this low has slowed and will pass through mid day Friday, so much of the shower activity will be Thursday night into Friday morning. Windy and cooler conditions for the Friday night and Saturday. An upper air disturbance will bring some cloudiness on Saturday. Sunday will be more tranquil.
Climate Forecast Discussion Nov 2010: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter.

posted: Nov 24 2010 at 7:56 am

[/weather/nov10] permanent link
Sun, 21 Nov 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Sun PM
This coming week will feature a pattern change-- the current zonal jet flow with weak disturbances and temperature changes will be replaced by a relatively deep upper trough moving through and hanging in for the the Thanksgiving weekend.
Low pressure is expected to move in from the west on Thanksgiving Day, bringing rainy conditions. There are differences in the models with the degree of development and the speed of the system. The front may hang up a bit for Friday, with continued showers. The NOGAPS has a much steeper and colder trough than the GFS. I'll fine tune during the week
Climate Forecast Discussion Nov 2010: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter.

posted: Nov 21 2010 at 6:29 pm

[/weather/nov10] permanent link
Sat, 20 Nov 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sat PM
There were even more clouds than anticipated today. Sunday will start with some cloudiness, but skies will brighten with some'sun mid day before cloudiness returns during the afternoon ahead of a weak warm front approaching Sunday night.
The long range has rain or showers likely for Thanksgiving day, although recent model runs shear much of the rain to our north and south.
Sun 11/21: Considerable mid level clouds with breaks of sun mid day. Clouds return in the afternoon. Cooler. High 49.
Climate Forecast Discussion Nov 2010: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter.

posted: Nov 20 2010 at 8:50 pm

[/weather/nov10] permanent link
Fri, 19 Nov 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
High pressure will maintain dry conditions for the weekend. A fast zonal jet flow will bring several weak disturbances through both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will have the most sunshine.
The long range has a rain storm possible for Thanksgiving day.
Sat 11/20: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Some mid-level cloudiness in the afternoon. High 54.
Sun 11/21: Considerable mid level clouds with breaks of sun. Lower level clouds later in the afternoon. Cooler. High 49.
Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter.

posted: Nov 19 2010 at 10:31 pm

[/weather/nov10] permanent link
Thu, 18 Nov 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thu PM
Yet another beautiful weekend on tap as high pressure builds in and the jet stream takes on a fast zonal flow. The fast zonal jet flow will bring in a weak front through early Sunday.
The long range has a rain storm possible for Thanksgiving day.
Sat 11/20: Sunny and pleasant. High 53.
Sun 11/21: Considerable cloudiness. Cooler. High 48.
Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter.

posted: Nov 18 2010 at 8:28 pm

[/weather/nov10] permanent link
Thu, 11 Nov 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thu PM
Another beautiful weekend, as a northerly surface flow brings clear skies and mild temps. Very dry dew points, in the 30s.
Sat 11/13: Sunny and beautiful. High 60.
Sun 11/14: Sunny and beautiful. High 60.
Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Add this to the increased thermal background of greenhouse warming and I expect to see much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms are more likely than snow for us.

posted: Nov 11 2010 at 10:51 pm

[/weather/nov10] permanent link
Sat, 06 Nov 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sat AM
Ooops...forgot about this forecast! High pressure will be in control of our weather this weekend as a steep upper air trough moves through. Clear skies expected based on the GFS model, although the NAM has some clouds Saturday afternoon due to instability aloft.
Sat 11/6: Sunny, some low level cumulus clouds possible in the afternoon. High 50.
Sun 11/7: Sunny, some mid-level clouds possible late afternoon. High 50.
Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased. Add this increased thermal background to the greenhouse warming and I expect to see much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms are more likely than snow for us.

posted: Nov 06 2010 at 9:17 am

[/weather/nov10] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 26 Nov 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM Sat 11/27: High pressure builds in behind a cold front. Sunny skies, windy and cold temps with high of 44. Sun 11/21: High pressure remains over us providing sunny skies, less wind and cold temps. High 46. Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter. posted: Nov 26 2010 at 1:57 pm [/weather/nov10] permanent link Thu, 25 Nov 2010 First Snow Flakes of the Season -Thurs AM I haven't been paying attention to the model details this week, but the first snow flakes of the season are falling here at 10AM. Checking the GFS model output, it did show snow for just about this time frame, due to cold air aloft. (Surface temps are about 40 degrees.) Things are expect to quickly change to light rain in about an hour or so. Light rain of varying intensities is expected through mid-day Friday with the lightest precip later tonight, picking up Friday morning. posted: Nov 25 2010 at 10:55 am [/weather/nov10] permanent link Wed, 24 Nov 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Wed AM The latest models have a less potent low pressure system affecting us on Thursday, Thanksgiving day. Only light rain expected during the afternoon hours. The actual frontal system associated with this low has slowed and will pass through mid day Friday, so much of the shower activity will be Thursday night into Friday morning. Windy and cooler conditions for the Friday night and Saturday. An upper air disturbance will bring some cloudiness on Saturday. Sunday will be more tranquil. Climate Forecast Discussion Nov 2010: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter. posted: Nov 24 2010 at 7:56 am [/weather/nov10] permanent link Sun, 21 Nov 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Sun PM This coming week will feature a pattern change-- the current zonal jet flow with weak disturbances and temperature changes will be replaced by a relatively deep upper trough moving through and hanging in for the the Thanksgiving weekend. Low pressure is expected to move in from the west on Thanksgiving Day, bringing rainy conditions. There are differences in the models with the degree of development and the speed of the system. The front may hang up a bit for Friday, with continued showers. The NOGAPS has a much steeper and colder trough than the GFS. I'll fine tune during the week Climate Forecast Discussion Nov 2010: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter. posted: Nov 21 2010 at 6:29 pm [/weather/nov10] permanent link Sat, 20 Nov 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sat PM There were even more clouds than anticipated today. Sunday will start with some cloudiness, but skies will brighten with some'sun mid day before cloudiness returns during the afternoon ahead of a weak warm front approaching Sunday night. The long range has rain or showers likely for Thanksgiving day, although recent model runs shear much of the rain to our north and south. Sun 11/21: Considerable mid level clouds with breaks of sun mid day. Clouds return in the afternoon. Cooler. High 49. Climate Forecast Discussion Nov 2010: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter. posted: Nov 20 2010 at 8:50 pm [/weather/nov10] permanent link Fri, 19 Nov 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM High pressure will maintain dry conditions for the weekend. A fast zonal jet flow will bring several weak disturbances through both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will have the most sunshine. The long range has a rain storm possible for Thanksgiving day. Sat 11/20: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Some mid-level cloudiness in the afternoon. High 54. Sun 11/21: Considerable mid level clouds with breaks of sun. Lower level clouds later in the afternoon. Cooler. High 49. Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter. posted: Nov 19 2010 at 10:31 pm [/weather/nov10] permanent link Thu, 18 Nov 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thu PM Yet another beautiful weekend on tap as high pressure builds in and the jet stream takes on a fast zonal flow. The fast zonal jet flow will bring in a weak front through early Sunday. The long range has a rain storm possible for Thanksgiving day. Sat 11/20: Sunny and pleasant. High 53. Sun 11/21: Considerable cloudiness. Cooler. High 48. Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter. posted: Nov 18 2010 at 8:28 pm [/weather/nov10] permanent link Thu, 11 Nov 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thu PM Another beautiful weekend, as a northerly surface flow brings clear skies and mild temps. Very dry dew points, in the 30s. Sat 11/13: Sunny and beautiful. High 60. Sun 11/14: Sunny and beautiful. High 60. Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Add this to the increased thermal background of greenhouse warming and I expect to see much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms are more likely than snow for us. posted: Nov 11 2010 at 10:51 pm [/weather/nov10] permanent link Sat, 06 Nov 2010 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sat AM Ooops...forgot about this forecast! High pressure will be in control of our weather this weekend as a steep upper air trough moves through. Clear skies expected based on the GFS model, although the NAM has some clouds Saturday afternoon due to instability aloft. Sat 11/6: Sunny, some low level cumulus clouds possible in the afternoon. High 50. Sun 11/7: Sunny, some mid-level clouds possible late afternoon. High 50. Climate Forecast Discussion: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased. Add this increased thermal background to the greenhouse warming and I expect to see much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms are more likely than snow for us. posted: Nov 06 2010 at 9:17 am [/weather/nov10] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.