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Miscellaneous
Sun, 30 Apr 2006
Weather Oulook for this week - Sun Update
Several more splendid days, although the blocking pattern is breaking down mid week and the models are probably having difficulty capturing the developing new pattern. Low confidence with this week's forecasts during a generally poorly defined weather pattern.
More mild temps through Wednesday. A transitional pattern as the GFS says another trough will develop causing cooler temps and unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend. Too far away to take this seriously at this time. Enjoy the good weather!
Sat 5/6: Cloudy.
Sun 5/7: Cloudy.
posted: Apr 30 2006 at 10:04 am
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Sat, 29 Apr 2006Week Weather Outlook - Sat Update
Update on temperatures
Sat 4/29: Sunny, beautiful, crisp. High 66.
Sun 4/30: Sunny and milder. High 69.
posted: Apr 29 2006 at 8:25 am
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Fri, 28 Apr 2006Week Weather Outlook - Fri Update
No change in the forecast, as high pressure will bring a northerly flow of cool air and clear skies.
Sat 4/29: Sunny, beautiful, crisp. High 63.
Sun 4/30: Sunny and milder. High 66.
posted: Apr 28 2006 at 6:24 am
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Thu, 27 Apr 2006Week Weather Outlook - Thurs Update
High pressure is still expected to build in from the north for the balance of the week, as the jet stream dips over us, providing cool, clear weather. An upper air blocking pattern will keep low pressure from approaching us.
Sat 4/29: Sunny, beautiful, crisp. High 63.
Sun 4/30: Sunny and milder. High 68.
posted: Apr 27 2006 at 6:24 am
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Wed, 26 Apr 2006Week Weather Outlook - Wed Update
The WRF did well in predicting the showers/thunderstorms to skip over Philadelphia over the past evening.
High pressure is expected to build in from the north for the balance of the week, as the jet stream dips over us, providing cool, clear weather. While this pattern is expected to last through the weekend, any breakdown of this high pressure will allow low pressure to move in earlier than currently expected.
Weekend Outlook:
Sat 4/29: Sunny and beautiful. High 62.
Sun 4/30: Sunny and milder. High 68. Possibly some increase in clouds later in the afternoon.
posted: Apr 26 2006 at 6:29 am
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Tue, 25 Apr 2006Week Weather Outlook - Tues Update
The models did poorly in predicting the thunderstorms this morning. Looking back at last night's data, even the WRF didn't pick up the heavy rains in PHL. Let's see how it goes for tomorrow (Tues)where the models are suggesting that the thunderstorms develop to our east and south.
The pattern for this week is a return to a colder flow from Canada, as the jet stream will dip down and allow cooler temps.
Tuesday: Cloud on the increase about 2 PM. The models have showers skipping over us about 6 PM and forming to our south and east. High near 72.
Weekend Outlook:
Cooler temperatures. Looks like a good weekend coming up, high pressure blocking the advance of a low pressure system. Highs in the 60s.
posted: Apr 25 2006 at 6:29 am
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Mon, 24 Apr 2006Week Weather Outlook - Monday Update
The models did poorly in predicting the thunderstorms this morning. Looking back at last night's data, even the WRF didn't pick up the heavy rains in PHL. Let's see how it goes for tomorrow (Tues)where the models are suggesting that the thunderstorms develop to our east and south.
The pattern for this week is a return to a colder flow from Canada, as the jet stream will dip down and allow cooler temps.
Tuesday: Clouds by late morning. Light showers possible late in the afternoon; the models are keeping heavier rain to our east and south. High 71.
Weekend Outlook:
Cooler temperatures. The GFS is hinting at showers later Saturday and Sunday. Last night's DGEX keeps us dry, as does the NOGAPS model. It's too soon to make a call for this weekend.
posted: Apr 24 2006 at 4:45 pm
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Sun, 23 Apr 2006Week Weather Outlook
The GFS MOS did a good job at predicting the clouds early and the clearing later today.
A quick moving disturbance will bring some light showers early Monday morning. Tuesday has a deeper low pressure system bringing rain in the afternoon.
A cooler dry pattern for the end of the week and into the weekend. Some showers possible Sunday.
posted: Apr 23 2006 at 5:15 pm
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Weekend Weather Update- Sun
The rain has exited as expected this morning from Philadelphia. The question of the day is will we see any sun?
The model output statistics (MOS) have backed away from sunshine, with both the NAM and GFS MOS showing clouds through much of the day.
The WRF model continues to show a sector of drier air moving over us during the late morning and early afternoon giving us the possibility that the sun will burn through for a time. Even the WRF brings clouds back later in the later afternoon as a weak disturbance in western PA moves through, mostly to our north. There's the possibility of a brief shower, especially north of Philadelphia late in the afternoon.
Sun 4/23: Lingering clouds very early, brightening skies mid day with possibly some sun poking through. Clouds again in the afternoon with a very slight chance of a brief shower late. High 67-70.
posted: Apr 23 2006 at 7:51 am
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Sat, 22 Apr 2006Weekend Weather Update- Sat
For the remainder of the evening, rain, heavy through midnight. Rain tapers off around sunrise. Some sun possible in the morning, then some cloudiness likely as a result of instability due to cold air aloft...a possible shower also in the afternoon. Most of the day will be dry.
Sun 4/23: Lingering clouds very early, then partly sunny through mid-day Variable clouds again in the afternoon with a chance of a brief shower. High near 70.
posted: Apr 22 2006 at 6:32 pm
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Weekend Weather Update
The heaviest rain for the morning has already passed to our north. A warm front to our south is showing little movement north, so I don't expect that we'll see any sun or warm sector temperatures today.
Another wave is expected to move up from the south through this afternoon and this evening.
Following a relative break in the action this morning (just light drizzle/showers possible), heavier rain will develop during the afternoon hours into this evening as this wave moves over us.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain early, then a break in the action late morning as things dry out a bit. Rain re-develops in the afternoon and evening and will likely be heavy. High in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Cloudy early, then partial clearing with breaks of sun possible. Clouds move back in later in the mid afternoon with showers re-developing. High near 70.
posted: Apr 22 2006 at 9:51 am
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Fri, 21 Apr 2006Weekend Weather Update- Fri Eve
No significant change with this afternoon's models. Due to the change to daylight savings time, only the new NAM data is available at this hour of the night. The NAM cranks out measureable precipitation every 6 hour period through Saturday evening. We'll see if there's any breaks in the precip tomorrow.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain, heavy in the morning and heavy again Saturday evening. Chilly with highs in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Lingering clouds very early, then partly sunny. Clouds again late afternoon with showers possible again. High 74.
posted: Apr 21 2006 at 9:50 pm
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Weekend Weather Update- Fri Afternoon
Enough speculation of a more optimistic forecast....the latest GFS and WRF models are out from this morning and HEAVY rain, without any letup, is forecast for Saturday. Early model runs hinted at a break in the action, but the latest model runs don't support that. (Was trying to be optimistic here.)
The GFS cranks out over 2 inches of rain, starting well before daybreak on Saturday and continuing heavy through the the first half of Saturday night. It tapers off around daybreak on Sunday. Some clearing Sunday and perhaps some sun mid-day before clouds come back in the afternoon with showers again Sunday night.
I'll update later tonight.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with heavy rain for much of the day. Chilly with highs in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Lingering clouds very early, then partly sunny. Clouds again late afternoon. High 74.
posted: Apr 21 2006 at 11:55 am
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Fine-tuning the Saturday Forecast
I'll update later.
Waves (areas of vorticity) revolving around an upper low in the Great Lakes will affect our weather. The WRF and GFS models have come back in line with the bullseye of precip rotating over our area during the night time hours. (With past closed lows, sometimes the bullseye of rain that develops is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.)
The big issue will be timing, since both models suggest that the major rains will be occuring Friday night and Saturday night. During the daytime period of Saturday, I expect the rain to significantly taper off; brightening skies and even some sun may peek out between the major impulses passing through during the night time hours.
Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area.
posted: Apr 21 2006 at 6:44 am
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Thu, 20 Apr 2006Clarifying the Weekend Forecast- Changes
This morning's GFS model continues to have the closed upper air low parked over the Great Lakes, however the 'bullseye' of heavy rain has shifted considerably into western PA. As mentioned in this morning's forecast, this often happens with closed lows -- The distance outside the low where the most lift and moisture convergence occurs is often hard to pinpoint. Showers are still expected but much less, according to the GFS. The WRF model (experimental Weather Research Forecast model) has things drying out during the day, with almost all of the activity in western PA. (As mentioned, I'm evaluating the WRF model for my forecasts. The WRF is good for only 60 hours in advance.)
(With past closed lows, the bullseye of rain that actually develops sometimes is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.)
Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area.
I'll update again later.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with showers early, then a break in the action late morning as things dry out a bit. We may even have some sun. High in the 60s.
Sun 4/23: Cloudy with lingering rain, then partial clearing skies late morning. Some sun. High near 70.
posted: Apr 20 2006 at 1:58 pm
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Rainy Saturday; Questionmark for Sunday.
Unlike last weekend, where the models were inconsistent, this week, the models have been very consistent predicting rain for this coming Saturday. Upper air low pressure, stuck over the Great Lakes will rotate areas of spin (vorticity) up from the southwest. The GFS has been consistent with the bullseye of rain being right over our area.
(With past closed lows, the bullseye of rain that actually develops sometimes is more east or west than predicted by the models. We'll have to see how well the models perform this time around.)
Sunday again is looking better with most of the showers exiting our area.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain likely much of the day. Cool. High in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Clouds with some sun possible by mid day. Much of the day will be dry. High near 70. Some uncertainty with this forecast.
posted: Apr 20 2006 at 6:13 am
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Wed, 19 Apr 2006Rainy Saturday; Possibly more Rain on Sunday
A consistent forecast for the formation of a closed low over the Great Lakes with disturbances rotating over us during the weekend. The current trend has been towards heavier rain for Saturday; This afternoon's DGEX (Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension) model shows a fair amount of rain again on Sunday afternoon.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain likely much of the day. Cool. High in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Clouds and some sun possible mid day, then showers again during the afternoon. High in the low 60s.
posted: Apr 19 2006 at 7:41 pm
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Rainy Saturday, Unsettled Sunday
A consistent forecast for the formation of a closed low that will drift over us during the weekend. The current trend has been towards heavier rain for Saturday, with just a chance of showers on Sunday. Cool temperatures.
Sunday looks like the better day. Things can still change.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain showers likely, morning through noon. Cool. High in the 50s.
Sun 4/23: Clouds and some sun possible. Light showers still possible during the day, especially the afternoon. High in the low 60s.
posted: Apr 19 2006 at 6:25 am
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Tue, 18 Apr 2006Rainy Weekend?
This morning's models continue to show the development of a blocking pattern with closed low pressure lingering in the northeast and another system to close off and linger over the weekend near the Great Lakes.
A cool, rainy weekend is currently being shown by the latest GFS model. Things can still change.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with rain showers likely, especially in the morning. High in the 60s.
Sun 4/23: A mix of clouds and some sun. Showers still possible during the day, especially the afternoon. High in the 60s.
posted: Apr 18 2006 at 7:38 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Tues
This morning's models continue to show the development of a blocking pattern with closed low pressure lingering in the northeast and another system to close off and linger over the weekend near the Great Lakes.
For today, moisture from the low off the coast may retrograde westward towards us, giving us some cloudiness. Otherwise, nice weather expected for the week, but moisture around the Great Lakes low will be over us by Saturday.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with showers likely. High in the 60s.
Sun 4/23: A mix of clouds and sun. Cool and unsettled with still a chance of a shower. High in the 60s.
posted: Apr 18 2006 at 6:51 am
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Mon, 17 Apr 2006Week Weather Outlook
A generally uneventful and nice spring weather week ahead, although we're in the midst of a pattern change where a blocking situation will cause low pressures systems to cut off and linger. For the beginning of the week, we'll be in a good flow with low pressure off in the Atlantic.
For the weekend, a low is expected to move up to the Great Lakes area and cut off, into a closed low. Rain, showers and unsettled weather is the current outlook for this weekend. Again, it's far off in the future and things will likely change.
Sat 4/22: Cloudy with showers likely. High in the 60s.
Sun 4/23: A mix of clouds and sun. Cool and unsettled with still a chance of a shower. High in the 60s.
posted: Apr 17 2006 at 6:08 pm
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Sun, 16 Apr 2006Weekend Weather Update
Low pressure near Nova Scotia continues to bring in dry northwesterly winds. The GFS continues to have high level cloudiness increase for most of the day, but sunshine should pass through this cloud layer.
Sun 4/16: Sunny, then sun passing through high clouds. High temp 66-70 degrees.
posted: Apr 16 2006 at 8:33 am
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Sat, 15 Apr 2006Weekend Weather Update
The WRF experimental model continues to be my model of choice right now. It correctly predicted the moderate levels of sun through clouds today. For Sunday, the latest WRF shows somewhat higher humidity fields than today (somewhat thicker clouds), although no precipitation is expected.
Sun 4/16: Early morning clouds, then sun through a variable layer of clouds through the day. Similar to Saturday's weather only a bit thicker clouds. Somewhat cooler temps as a northwesterly flow at the surface cools things off. High temp 66-70 degrees.
posted: Apr 15 2006 at 3:27 pm
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Fri, 14 Apr 2006Weekend Forecast
Last night's WRF and GFS have backed away from rain in the morning on Saturday.
Once today's rain moves out, a beautiful and warm weekend is the current outlook. (It's been a roller coaster of different forecasts this week. Let's hope this one sticks. :))
There remains differences in the models for this weekend. A stalled frontal boundary to our south will be the focus point for showers, according to the WRF. Small changes in the position of this front will affect the forecast. Confidence with this weekend forecast remains below average.
Sat 4/15: Very early morning clouds, then sunny. Warm. High 79.
Sun 4/16: Sunny. Warm. High near 80.
posted: Apr 14 2006 at 7:16 am
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Thu, 13 Apr 2006Yet Another Forecast Change...
Expect additional changes as the weekend approaches. Confidence in the weekend forecast is lower than usual.
Numerous disturbances in a fast jet flow are difficult to time with the models.
The first disturbance comes through on Friday, with showers during much of the mid-day hours. The latest WRF and GFS shows another disturbance now coming through on Saturday morning, with showers in the morning possibly through noon.
posted: Apr 13 2006 at 6:34 pm
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Weekend Outlook
Expect more changes as the weekend approaches. Confidence in the weekend forecast is lower than usual.
Numerous disturbances moving in the zonal flow across our area are expected over the next few days. The GFS model has had troubles with timing these distubances. A 12-24 hour difference in timing will make a significant difference in the sensible weather.
The first distubance is expected on Thursday, and a second disturbance with showers, is expected on Friday (instead of Saturday). A disturbance on Saturday is expected to pass to our south now, while a somewhat stronger disturbance may bring light showers on Sunday late afternoon.
posted: Apr 13 2006 at 6:56 am
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Wed, 12 Apr 2006Continued Forecast Changes
Expect more changes as the weekend approaches. Confidence in the weekend forecast is lower than usual.
Numerous disturbances moving in the zonal flow across our area are expected over the next few days. The GFS model has had troubles with timing these distubances. A 12-24 hour difference in timing will make a significant difference in the sensible weather.
The first distubance is expected on Thursday, and a second disturbance with showers, is expected on Friday (instead of Saturday). A disturbance on Saturday is expected to pass to our south now, while a somewhat stronger disturbance will bring showers on Sunday.
posted: Apr 12 2006 at 6:42 am
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Tue, 11 Apr 2006How Things Change...
The upcoming weekend, which previously looked just great, now has much uncertainty, as the latest GFS model has a weak distubance from the west redeveloping over us giving us showers for early Saturday. Another disturbance approaches for Monday. I expect things to change further as the weekend gets closer.
Before we get to the weekend, though, another small disturabance will give us light showers on Thursday.
Sat 4/15: Cloudy with showers ending in the morning. Becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High near 72.
Sun 4/16: Sunny in the morning, clouds later in the afternoon. High 68.
posted: Apr 11 2006 at 6:43 am
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Mon, 10 Apr 2006This Week's Weather Outlook
An uneventful week ahead, weatherwise, as high pressure and a mostly zonal flow brings milder temps to our area. Clear skies most of the week, with some clouds on Thursday. Possibly a shower on Thursday as well. The coming weekend looks good.
Sat 4/15: Sunny. High near 70.
Sun 4/16: Sunny. High near 70.
posted: Apr 10 2006 at 6:45 am
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Sun, 09 Apr 2006Sunday...and the Week's Weather Outlook
The WRF model did fairly well yesterday, although the actual axis of precipitation was a bit further north than it had predicted, which resulted in a clearing pattern that occurred somewhat later than had been predicted. Rain amounts were above the 0.5 inches predicted by the GFS.
An uneventful week ahead, weatherwise, as high pressure and a mostly zonal flow brings milder temps to our area. Clear skies most of the week. Possibly a shower on Thursday. Next weekend, while days away, looks very good.
Sun 4/9: Sunny, breezy and cooler. High 56.
posted: Apr 09 2006 at 7:25 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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