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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
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Sat, 29 Oct 2011
Winter Weather Update- Sat 1 PM
The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model predicts considerable snow accumulation just outside the city limits, north and west. Temps are running considerably lower than had been forecast.
The HRRR now predicts an inch or two inside the city, but, with an increase in distance north and west, as much as 6-8 inches in northern Montco and Bucks and western Chester counties.

posted: Oct 29 2011 at 9:09 pm

[/weather/oct11] permanent link

Winter Weather Update- Sat 11 AM
OK, will this storm make the weather models and meteorologists look bad? Possibly. The usual parameters don't support snow at this time. But, I look out my window and there's plenty of snow falling, despite temps being several degrees above freezing and 500-1000mb thickness levels being above 540dm.
My previous post was based on the NAM and last night's GFS.
The latest high resolution Rapid Refresh Model now shows wets snow with accumulations slight and increasing with distance north and west of the city. Nothing in NJ.

It's still unclear how much snow will accumulate. Ground surfaces are wet and above freezing. Wet slush or coating expected in the evening. Accumulation, if it occurs in PHL and its immediate suburbs, will occur mostly on grassy surfaces and trees. A coating to an inch possible on sidewalks. Or maybe we just don't know with this storm??? :-)

posted: Oct 29 2011 at 10:56 am

[/weather/oct11] permanent link

Winter Weather Update- Sat 10 AM
Low pressure is developing along the DE VA coastlines as expected. Some mix of snow flakes is occurring due to dynamic cooling (rapid pressure decrease).
Atmospheric thickness levels are not expected to get into the snow support range until after 5 PM. Dynamic cooling may mix in snow flakes before that time. No accumulation during the daytime hours is expected in the immediate PHL area.
The high resolution Rapid Refresh Model has a mix of rain and wet snow for the morning in PHL with more wet snow mixed in to the west and north.
The new NAM model run is just becoming available. It depicts cold air moving in about 4-5 PM in Philadelphia, sooner to the west. But the influx of cold air will likely cause the precip to stop earlier than previously thought.
It's still unclear how much snow will accumulate. Ground surfaces are wet and above freezing. Wet slush or coating expected in the evening. Accumulation, if it occurs in PHL and its immediate suburbs, will occur mostly on grassy surfaces and trees. A coating to an inch possible on sidewalks.

posted: Oct 29 2011 at 10:30 am

[/weather/oct11] permanent link
Thu, 27 Oct 2011
Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu PM
The models develop a compact coastal low that brings rain to our area on Saturday. Both the NAM and GFS have come together with both having fairly heavy rain during the day into the early evening. Both show the upper atmosphere chilling down by late afternoon for the precip to mix with and even change to wet snow towards evening. Accumulation is not expected, as surface temps stay close to 40.
Sat 10/29: Cloudy, with periods of rain, possibly heavy Wet snow mixes in before ending during the evening. Windy and chilly. High 44.
Sun 10/30: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy and cool. High. 51

posted: Oct 27 2011 at 9:43 pm

[/weather/oct11] permanent link

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu AM
The models develop a compat coastal low that brings rain to our area on Saturday. The GFS continues to forecast a more robust storm, with enough cold air to have the possibility of wet snow mixed with rain in the northern and western suburbs. The new NAM is closer to the GFS model with last night's model runs.
Sat 10/29: Cloudy, with periods of rain. Wet snow flakes mixes in north and west of PHL. Windy and chilly. High 45.
Sun 10/30: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy and cool. High. 51

posted: Oct 27 2011 at 7:25 am

[/weather/oct11] permanent link
Wed, 26 Oct 2011
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Wed PM
This weekend will be a good test for new NAM model-- the new NAM model suppresses the developing coastal low pressure to the east, missing our area (except for the NJ shore).
Meanwhile, the GFS model develops a compact coastal low that brings rain into the Philadelphia area for Saturday.
So we will see if the new NAM is an improvement. For now, I'll go with the GFS forecast.
Sat 10/29: Cloudy, with periods of rain, especially from PHL south and east. Windy and chilly. High 49.
Sun 10/30: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy and cool. High. 53

posted: Oct 26 2011 at 4:05 pm

[/weather/oct11] permanent link
Fri, 21 Oct 2011
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri PM
High pressure will control our weather over the weekend. For Saturday, an upper cyclonic flow may result in some cloudiness (similar to today), according to the new NAM Model but the GFS maintains more sunny conditions. Warm air returning late Sunday afternoon may result in cloudiness towards evening.
Sat 10/22: Sunny with some cloudiness in the afternoon. Breezy. High 60
Sun 10/23: Sunny. Some cloudiness late afternoon towards evening. High 62.

posted: Oct 21 2011 at 4:49 pm

[/weather/oct11] permanent link
Sat, 15 Oct 2011
NEW NAM WEATHER MODEL GOES LIVE ON TUESDAY, OCT 18th
The NAM model gets a major upgrade and the new version becomes operational this Tuesday, Oct 18th. It's been run as an experimental parallel model for quite some time. I've noticed some significant differences in this newer model, but perhaps the best summary statement is that it's much closer to the GFS output than it used to be. It will be interesting to see how the NAM does in predicting snow this coming winter.

posted: Oct 15 2011 at 9:44 am

[/weather/oct11] permanent link

Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Sat AM
Following the cold front yesterday, high pressure will build in, but the upper pattern will be cyclonic due to a deep low in Canada. An upper air disturbance rotating around this deep low in Canada will pass through our area late Sunday giving us cloudiness.
Sat 10/15: Mostly sunny, some clouds at times, windy and cooler. High 69.
Sun 10/16: Mostly sunny early, then increasing cloudiness during the morning, becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon. No rain expected. High 67.

NEW NAM MODEL GOES LIVE ON TUESDAY, OCT 18th-- The NAM model gets a major upgrade and becomes operational this Tuesday. It's been run as an experimental parallel model for quite some time. I've noticed some significant differences in this newer model, but perhaps the best summary statement is that it's much closer to the GFS output than it used to be. It will be interesting to see how the NAM does in predicting snow this coming winter.

posted: Oct 15 2011 at 9:39 am

[/weather/oct11] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 29 Oct 2011 Winter Weather Update- Sat 1 PM The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model predicts considerable snow accumulation just outside the city limits, north and west. Temps are running considerably lower than had been forecast. The HRRR now predicts an inch or two inside the city, but, with an increase in distance north and west, as much as 6-8 inches in northern Montco and Bucks and western Chester counties. posted: Oct 29 2011 at 9:09 pm [/weather/oct11] permanent link Winter Weather Update- Sat 11 AM OK, will this storm make the weather models and meteorologists look bad? Possibly. The usual parameters don't support snow at this time. But, I look out my window and there's plenty of snow falling, despite temps being several degrees above freezing and 500-1000mb thickness levels being above 540dm. My previous post was based on the NAM and last night's GFS. The latest high resolution Rapid Refresh Model now shows wets snow with accumulations slight and increasing with distance north and west of the city. Nothing in NJ. It's still unclear how much snow will accumulate. Ground surfaces are wet and above freezing. Wet slush or coating expected in the evening. Accumulation, if it occurs in PHL and its immediate suburbs, will occur mostly on grassy surfaces and trees. A coating to an inch possible on sidewalks. Or maybe we just don't know with this storm??? :-) posted: Oct 29 2011 at 10:56 am [/weather/oct11] permanent link Winter Weather Update- Sat 10 AM Low pressure is developing along the DE VA coastlines as expected. Some mix of snow flakes is occurring due to dynamic cooling (rapid pressure decrease). Atmospheric thickness levels are not expected to get into the snow support range until after 5 PM. Dynamic cooling may mix in snow flakes before that time. No accumulation during the daytime hours is expected in the immediate PHL area. The high resolution Rapid Refresh Model has a mix of rain and wet snow for the morning in PHL with more wet snow mixed in to the west and north. The new NAM model run is just becoming available. It depicts cold air moving in about 4-5 PM in Philadelphia, sooner to the west. But the influx of cold air will likely cause the precip to stop earlier than previously thought. It's still unclear how much snow will accumulate. Ground surfaces are wet and above freezing. Wet slush or coating expected in the evening. Accumulation, if it occurs in PHL and its immediate suburbs, will occur mostly on grassy surfaces and trees. A coating to an inch possible on sidewalks. posted: Oct 29 2011 at 10:30 am [/weather/oct11] permanent link Thu, 27 Oct 2011 Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu PM The models develop a compact coastal low that brings rain to our area on Saturday. Both the NAM and GFS have come together with both having fairly heavy rain during the day into the early evening. Both show the upper atmosphere chilling down by late afternoon for the precip to mix with and even change to wet snow towards evening. Accumulation is not expected, as surface temps stay close to 40. Sat 10/29: Cloudy, with periods of rain, possibly heavy Wet snow mixes in before ending during the evening. Windy and chilly. High 44. Sun 10/30: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy and cool. High. 51 posted: Oct 27 2011 at 9:43 pm [/weather/oct11] permanent link Philly Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu AM The models develop a compat coastal low that brings rain to our area on Saturday. The GFS continues to forecast a more robust storm, with enough cold air to have the possibility of wet snow mixed with rain in the northern and western suburbs. The new NAM is closer to the GFS model with last night's model runs. Sat 10/29: Cloudy, with periods of rain. Wet snow flakes mixes in north and west of PHL. Windy and chilly. High 45. Sun 10/30: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy and cool. High. 51 posted: Oct 27 2011 at 7:25 am [/weather/oct11] permanent link Wed, 26 Oct 2011 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Wed PM This weekend will be a good test for new NAM model-- the new NAM model suppresses the developing coastal low pressure to the east, missing our area (except for the NJ shore). Meanwhile, the GFS model develops a compact coastal low that brings rain into the Philadelphia area for Saturday. So we will see if the new NAM is an improvement. For now, I'll go with the GFS forecast. Sat 10/29: Cloudy, with periods of rain, especially from PHL south and east. Windy and chilly. High 49. Sun 10/30: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy and cool. High. 53 posted: Oct 26 2011 at 4:05 pm [/weather/oct11] permanent link Fri, 21 Oct 2011 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri PM High pressure will control our weather over the weekend. For Saturday, an upper cyclonic flow may result in some cloudiness (similar to today), according to the new NAM Model but the GFS maintains more sunny conditions. Warm air returning late Sunday afternoon may result in cloudiness towards evening. Sat 10/22: Sunny with some cloudiness in the afternoon. Breezy. High 60 Sun 10/23: Sunny. Some cloudiness late afternoon towards evening. High 62. posted: Oct 21 2011 at 4:49 pm [/weather/oct11] permanent link Sat, 15 Oct 2011 NEW NAM WEATHER MODEL GOES LIVE ON TUESDAY, OCT 18th The NAM model gets a major upgrade and the new version becomes operational this Tuesday, Oct 18th. It's been run as an experimental parallel model for quite some time. I've noticed some significant differences in this newer model, but perhaps the best summary statement is that it's much closer to the GFS output than it used to be. It will be interesting to see how the NAM does in predicting snow this coming winter. posted: Oct 15 2011 at 9:44 am [/weather/oct11] permanent link Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Sat AM Following the cold front yesterday, high pressure will build in, but the upper pattern will be cyclonic due to a deep low in Canada. An upper air disturbance rotating around this deep low in Canada will pass through our area late Sunday giving us cloudiness. Sat 10/15: Mostly sunny, some clouds at times, windy and cooler. High 69. Sun 10/16: Mostly sunny early, then increasing cloudiness during the morning, becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon. No rain expected. High 67. NEW NAM MODEL GOES LIVE ON TUESDAY, OCT 18th-- The NAM model gets a major upgrade and becomes operational this Tuesday. It's been run as an experimental parallel model for quite some time. I've noticed some significant differences in this newer model, but perhaps the best summary statement is that it's much closer to the GFS output than it used to be. It will be interesting to see how the NAM does in predicting snow this coming winter. posted: Oct 15 2011 at 9:39 am [/weather/oct11] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.