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Miscellaneous
Sun, 29 Apr 2007
Weekend Weather - Sun AM
The cold air aloft that brought instability clouds to us yesterday is finally moving away. Another weak area in the upper flow will bring some clouds to us later this afternoon, but much nice than yesterday.
Sun 4/29:Mostly sunny in the morning, some cloudiness during the mid to late afternoon.. High 72
posted: Apr 29 2007 at 6:16 am
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Fri, 27 Apr 2007Weekend Forecast- Fri PM
Upper air disturbances with colder air aloft will result in more cloudiness than previously thought on Saturday. There's even a chance of a light spit towards evening. Sunday should dry out a bit better, but some clouds still around.
Sat 4/28: Some breaks of sun in the morning, but the day will be mostly cloudy with occasional bright spots. High 68.
Sun 4/29: Partly sunny. High 72
posted: Apr 27 2007 at 7:09 pm
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Thu, 26 Apr 2007Weekend Forecast
Low pressure will move across our area on Friday, but weak low pressure will linger over the NE for the weekend, according to the latest GFS model.
Sat 4/28: Partly cloudy/sunny and breezy. High 68
Sun 4/29: Partly sunny/cloudy High 68
posted: Apr 26 2007 at 6:16 am
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Wed, 25 Apr 2007Spring Continues- Wed AM
A stalled frontal boundary to our south will allow low pressure systems to form and move along the boundary. Periods of rain will be with us from this evening and again Friday.
The models have things clearing out for the weekend!
Sat 4/28: Partly cloudy and breezy. High 68
Sun 4/29: Sunny and nice. High 68
posted: Apr 25 2007 at 6:19 am
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Sat, 21 Apr 2007Beautiful Weekend - Sat AM
High pressure will dominate our area for the next few days. Warm flow will allow springlike conditions to finally move in.
Checking the long range models, we're nice and seasonably warm through the end of April...the extended GFS model has cold temperatures returning for a brief stint around May 5th. Don't be in a rush to put out those spring plants/flowers.
Sat 4/21: Sunny and springlike. High 78
Sun 4/22: Sunny and nice. High 80
posted: Apr 21 2007 at 10:39 am
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Fri, 20 Apr 2007Beautiful Weekend - Fri AM
High pressure will dominate our area for the next few days. Warm flow will allow springlike conditions to finally move in.
Sat 4/21: Sunny and springlike. High 76
Sun 4/22: Sunny and nice. High 76
posted: Apr 20 2007 at 4:53 am
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Wed, 18 Apr 2007Beautiful Weekend - Wed AM
High pressure builds into our area by Friday, as the deep low pressure circulation moves away.
Sat 4/21: Sunny and springlike. High 72
Sun 4/22: Sunny and nice. High 69.
posted: Apr 18 2007 at 5:56 am
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Tue, 17 Apr 2007Weather Update- Tues AM
Upper low pressure will continue off the coast of NJ/LI for the next few days. Disturbances (areas of vorticity) will rotate around this low, bringing clouds and the chance of light showers at times, although most of the day will be dry.
As the pressure fills in, winds will continue for the next several days. The weekend looks good at this time!
posted: Apr 17 2007 at 8:06 am
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Mon, 16 Apr 2007Storm Update- Mon AM
As I mentioned yesterday late afternoon, the GFS suggested that the rain would mix with wet snow on Monday. Well, the atmosphere has cooled even more than expected, so wet snow is falling and accumulating! (in April!) Latest GFS model output from 2AM has another 0.36 inches of water falling today, as snow. We could have as much as 2-3 inches, mostly on grassy surfaces. (The roadways will mostly melt, as soon as the solar insolation gets stronger with the sun higher in the sky behind the clouds.) Continued very windy, winds peaking during the afternoon.
Winds will pickup later.
posted: Apr 16 2007 at 5:55 am
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Sun, 15 Apr 2007Heavy Rain Update - Sun PM
The low pressure system has just reached the coastline, and is developing off the DE coastline.
Heavy rains will lighten somewhat later this evening. The afternoon model runs of the GFS and NAM has some rain/showers continuing through Monday. About another 0.65 inches of water after 8 PM. according to the NAM. The GFS suggests that wet snow may mix in with the rain showers during the day Monday. (No accumulation)
Winds will pickup later.
posted: Apr 15 2007 at 5:59 pm
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Heavy Rain Update - Sun Late AM
Latest NAM and GFS models now in. The NAM continues with an additional 2-3 inches of rain between now and 8 PM this evening. The GFS less, but still over an 1.5+. (We've had over two inches of rain already.) The NAM is doing well with this storm.
Looking at the current surface data analysis, the low pressure coastal storm, believe it or not, has just started forming off of the DE coastline. (This rain is from the surface low that was in Tennessee.) It will be interesting to see how the rain continues as the energy and angular momentum of the inland low becomes transferred to the circulation of the coastal system. The winds will start picking up this afternoon as the coastal low pressure starts bombing out.
Updates later
posted: Apr 15 2007 at 11:42 am
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Heavy Rain Update - Sun AM
I can't believe it, but last night's (2AM) NAM cranks out well over 5 inches of rain for us. I have never seen the NAM have numbers this high, except during a hurricaine. The GFS cranks out 4 inches of rain! Wow.
It looks like we'll have some snow showers on Monday. I'll update again later this morning when the new models come out (10-11 AM)
Sun 4/15: Cloudy, very WINDY with heavy rain. Precipitation will approach 5 inches of rain! High 49. Winds continue into Monday with possible snow showers Monday.
posted: Apr 15 2007 at 6:55 am
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Sat, 14 Apr 2007Heavy Rain Update - Sat PM
The lastest NAM data just became available. The NAM cranks out almost 4 inches of rain for our area on Sunday! And it predicts a prolongation of the rain throughout the day. This QPF value for our area is not one I have seen in a long time. The better GFS model output is not yet available, but the two models have been in general agreement. This afternoon's GFS model using the NWS Bufkit software cranked out over 3 inches of rain.
Sun 4/15: Cloudy, very WINDY with heavy rain. Precipitation will approach 4 inches of rain! High 49. Winds continue into Monday with possible snow showers Monday.
posted: Apr 14 2007 at 9:28 pm
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Sunday Nor'easter Commentary- Sat AM
The news media is really hyping up this coastal storm. Quite honestly, the latest models have a more signficant storm for Long Island and Connecticut than for us, as the surface low pressure will become 'vertically stacked' with its upper low a bit further north than had been previously forecast. Thus, the storm is a bit more progressive than the original stalled version off the NJ coastline.
As a result, a dry slot will move through our area by early to mid-afternoon on Sunday, cutting off the heavy rain. Barometer buffs like myself will enjoy seeing their barometers hit a deep low point (984 millibars), but this will be just a bad rainstorm.
posted: Apr 14 2007 at 8:13 am
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Stormy Sunday- Sat AM
Latest model trends from both the NAM and GFS- the heaviest rain will occur before 8 AM Sunday with the bulk of the precipitation on Sunday exiting by 2 PM.... As much as 1.5 inches will fall in a 6 hour period before daybreak Sunday, with another half inch Sunday morning. Indirect effects of the storm - wind- will increase in the afternoon Sunday with intermittent showers. So the trend is for the heaviest rain to be before daybreak and earlier in the day on Sunday.
Sat 4/14: Sunny early, increasing clouds and mostly cloudy by mid afternoon. Chance of a shower very late in the afternoon. High 53.
Sun 4/15: Cloudy, very WINDY with heavy rain, especially before daybreak and during the morning. Winds increase during the afternoon. Snow showers possible Sunday night.
posted: Apr 14 2007 at 7:00 am
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Fri, 13 Apr 2007Stormy Sunday- Fri AM
The GFS has been very consistent with its prediction of rather potent and slow moving nor'easter to form and hug the coast from Sunday through Monday. Heavy rain, wind and at the shore, beach erosion, is likely. The upper low supporting this storm will cut off and cause unsettled conditions into Tuesday. Upper cold air may allow for some snow flurries. Colder than normal temperatures remain with us.
Sat 4/14: Sunny early, increasing clouds and mostly cloudy by mid afternoon. Chance of a shower very late in the afternoon. High 53.
Sun 4/15: Cloudy, very WINDY with rain likely throughout the day. Rain likely will be very heavy. High 47.
posted: Apr 13 2007 at 5:32 am
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Thu, 12 Apr 2007Interesting Weather Weekend- Thurs PM
The models continue to predict a rather potent and slow moving nor'easter to form and hug the coast from Sunday through Monday. Heavy rain, wind and at the shore, beach erosion, is likely. This sort of storm is more commonly seen in the Fall, instead of Springtime. Colder than normal temperatures remain with us.
Sat 4/14: Sunny early, increasing clouds and mostly cloudy by mid afternoon. Chance of a shower very late in the afternoon. High 53.
Sun 4/15: Cloudy, very WINDY with rain likely throughout the day. Rain may be very heavy. High 47.
posted: Apr 12 2007 at 4:38 pm
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Wed, 11 Apr 2007Interesting Weather Weekend
The models are predicting a rather potent and slow moving nor'easter to develop and hug the coast from Sunday through Monday. Heavy rain, wind and at the shore, beach erosion, is likely. This sort of storm is more commonly seen in the Fall, instead of Springtime. Colder than normal temperatures remain with us.
Sat 4/14: Sunny early, increasing clouds during the day. Chance of a shower late. High 52.
Sun 4/15: Cloudy, very windy with rain likely throughout the day. Rain may be heavy. High 49.
posted: Apr 11 2007 at 7:24 pm
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Mon, 09 Apr 2007Week Weather Outlook - Mon PM Update
Somewhat more seasonable temperatures return for the end of this week, but there'a a bunch of disturbances that will be approaching our area. Big differences in timing of these low pressure systems-- the NOGAPS has heavy rain on Friday and Sunday, while the GFS now has the major rain storm coming through Saturday and exiting early Sunday afternoon.
So it's not certain which day of the weekend will be rained out at this time. Very cold weather returns for later Sunday into Monday!
posted: Apr 09 2007 at 7:43 pm
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Sun, 08 Apr 2007Week Weather Outlook - Sunday
Interesting weather for April, as a cold flow continues and gradually subsides this week. Low pressure shears off Wednesday through Thursday, with a chance of showers Thursday. Temperatures approach 60 by the end of the week. This coming weekend, Saturday looks like the better day, as the GFS MOS has a 100% chance of rain for Sunday.
I'll update during the week.
posted: Apr 08 2007 at 5:44 pm
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Sunday Update- Sun AM
A continued upper cold flow will result in instability clouds forming during the day, along with the possibility of snow showers.
Sun 4/8: Mostly cloudy with occasional sunny breaks. Snow showers possible. Windy and cold. High 44.
posted: Apr 08 2007 at 6:57 am
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Sat, 07 Apr 2007Cancel that snow- Sat AM Update
The NAM forecast was apparently correct, with the snow staying to our south and east. Last night's GFS (which I didn't stay up for...which becomes available hour later now that it's daylight savings time) also had eliminated the snow in Philadelphia from the forecast. There is significant snow just to our south.
Sat 4/7: Mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks possible, windy and cold. Some flurries still possible. High 44.
Sun 4/8: Mostly sunny, windy and cold. High in the mid 40s.
posted: Apr 07 2007 at 4:50 am
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Fri, 06 Apr 2007Light Snow for early Saturday Morning! - Fri Afternoon Update
Latest GFS model continues to predict about a coating to an inch of snow, falling before daybreak and tapering mid morning. The NAM model has it east of us into NJ, missing Philadelphia. Latest QPF values of the GFS are 0.08 inches water falling as snow for NE airport and 0.13 inches for PHL airport before daybreak. Strong solar insolatiion through clouds will melt any accumulation on roadways by mid morning.
Since this low pressure system hasn't formed yet, exact amounts and coverage are not possible with this system.
Sat 4/7: Light snow very early, about 1 inch of accumulation possible, becoming partly sunny, windy and cold in the afternoon. High 44.
Sun 4/8: Mostly sunny, windy and cold. High in the mid 40s.
posted: Apr 06 2007 at 4:54 pm
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Winter's Last Attempt? - Fri AM Update
Upper trough pattern, more like late winter than spring, will give rise to the development of a coastal low near VA. The northern-most extent of the snow will graze our area before daybreak on Saturday. A dusting to coasting of light snow is possible, especially just south of the city. As the low departs, sun will break out, but it will become windy.
Sat 4/7: Light snow/flurries very early, the partly sunny, windy and cold. High 44.
Sun 4/8: Mostly sunny, windy and cold. High in the mid 40s.
posted: Apr 06 2007 at 9:11 am
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Thu, 05 Apr 2007Weather Discussion- Thurs AM
An upper air pattern more typical of early March will be with us through the weekend. Low pressure is predicted to form off the coast Friday night, but the current models have any precip (read wet snow) staying to our east and south. We'll need to watch this, though.
Sat 4/7: Partly sunny, partly cloudy, windy and cold. High in the mid 40s.
Sun 4/8: Mostly sunny and cold. High in the mid 40s.
posted: Apr 05 2007 at 6:39 am
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Sun, 01 Apr 2007Weather Discussion- Sunday evening
The rain that was supposed to arrive this evening did arrive on schedule, but last night's GFS and NAM didn't capture the showers this morning and the GFS incorrectly had rain during the afternoon. Springtime is a difficult time for the models, with large transitions occuring.
Speaking of transitions, the next two days will have temps in the 70s, but temps start to fall on Wednesday and it will be cold and windy for the first full weekend in April. High temps currently expected to be in the mid 40s.
I'll update during the week.
posted: Apr 01 2007 at 6:24 pm
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The models got this one wrong- Sun AM
The rain that went through early this morning was not forecast by either the NAM or GFS models. When the models can't get the early period correctly, they rarely accurately capture the later period forecast. Confidence in today's forecast is low. Not an April Fools forecast.
They currently show rain for this afternoon, starting about 12 PM, a big change from yesterday's forecast.
Sun 4/1: Cloudy with showers this afternoon. High 54.
posted: Apr 01 2007 at 6:13 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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