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Fri, 31 Jul 2009
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri AM
Following today's showery and possible stormy weather, things clear out for Saturday, as a drier northwesterly flow moves in. Another disturbance in the surface southwesterly flow will interact with the upper cyclonic flow on Sunday, giving us clouds and showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat 8/1: Some clouds early, then mostly sunny very warm. High 89.
Sun 8/2: Cloudy, some bright spots possible. Showers and thunderstorms during early afternoon. High 90.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-28-09: The visible sun is again spotless. There is a bit of increased solar activity rotating into earth view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68.4. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 31 2009 at 8:04 am
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Thu, 30 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Thurs AM
No change in the forecast. For the next several days, a humid southwesterly flow will interact with a cool cyclonic flow aloft resulting in a recurrent chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms. This feature looks to be with us through late Friday night. Things dry out for Saturday.
The NAM and GFS have afternoon showery weather returning on Sunday. Saturday looks like it will be the better of the two days.
Just as we saw this past Sunday, most of the day turned out quite nice and the degree of showers was over-estimated. The same may occur for the weekend.
Sat 8/1: Some clouds early, then mostly sunny very warm and humid. High near 90.
Sun 8/2: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms in the late morning or early afternoon. High 90.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-28-09: The visible sun is again spotless. There is a bit of increased solar activity rotating into earth view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68.4. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 30 2009 at 7:37 am
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Tue, 28 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues PM
For the next several days, a humid southwesterly flow will interact with a cool cyclonic flow aloft resulting in a recurrent chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms. This feature looks to be with us through late Friday night.
Yesterday, it appeared that things would clear out for the weekend, but the latest GFS has the same afternoon showery weather returning on Sunday. Much uncertainty with the timing and details at this point, but right now, Saturday looks like it will be the better of the two days.
Just as we saw this past Sunday, most of the day turned out quite nice and the degree of showers was over-estimated. The same may occur for the coming days and weekend.
Sat 8/1: tentative: Cloudy early, then mostly sunny very warm and humid. High near 90.
Sun 8/2: tentative: Partly sunny, showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-28-09: The visible sun is again spotless. There is a bit of increased solar activity rotating into earth view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68.4. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 28 2009 at 9:56 pm
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Sun, 26 Jul 2009Weather Update - Sun AM
As I tweeted yesterday afternoon, the models did show sunshine for today, but also significant showers and thunderstorms. Any sun will fuel the thunderstorms.
Last night's models backed off considerably on the showers and thunderstorms, although the NAM continues to show very high instability, especially this afternoon. This morning's NAM data just became available and it continues to show fairly heavy showers and thunderstorms for this aftenoon and this evening.
Timing these exactly is impossible but anytime from 1 PM to 6PM is a good bet.
Look for interim updates via Tweeter. Follow me as "theweatherguy".
posted: Jul 26 2009 at 10:37 am
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Sat, 25 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Sat AM
Same synoptic aspects as yesterday, but both models (NAM and GFS) are predicting a wet Sunday.
Expected high temperatures have dropped back a bit. The big change will be the increase in humidity, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70.
Sat 7/25: Mostly sunny, hazy, very warm and humid. Chance of a late afternoon or early evening scattered thunderstorm. High 89
Sun 7/26: Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and extending into the afternoon. Very humid and warm. High 85.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-25-09: The visible sun remains spotless. Solar activity and solar wind remains quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 25 2009 at 8:26 am
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Fri, 24 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Fri PM
Things have changed for Sunday. High pressure will provide a southwesterly flow of very warm (maybe hot) and humid air for Saturday. A frontal boundary approaching on Sunday may cause showers and thunderstorms in the morning and possibly into the afternoon.
Sat 7/25: Mostly sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Chance of a late afternoon or early evening scattered thunderstorm. High 90
Sun 7/26: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Very warm and humid. High 85.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-24-09: The visible sun remains spotless. Solar activity remains quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 24 2009 at 9:50 pm
[/weather/jul09] permanent link
Quick Weather Update
Catch more quick updates on Twitter. Follow me as-- theweatherguy
Latest NAM has thunderstorms for later afternoon Friday and some rain/thunderstorms Sunday morning.
posted: Jul 24 2009 at 11:59 am
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Fri AM
High pressure will provide a southwesterly flow of very warm (maybe hot) and humid air for Saturday. A frontal boundary approaching on Sunday may cause showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Most of the weekend will be dry.
Sat 7/25: Mostly sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Chance of a late afternoon or early evening scattered thunderstorm. High 90
Sun 7/26: Cloudy early, then brightening skies with some hazy sun by late morning. Very warm and humid with thunderstorms possible late in the afternoon. High 89.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-24-09: The visible sun remains spotless. Solar activity remains quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 24 2009 at 9:02 am
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Thu, 23 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
Summer is here. High pressure will provide a southwesterly flow of very warm and humid air for Saturday A frontal boundary will cause thunderstorms on Sunday.
Sat 7/25: Mostly sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Chance of a late thunderstorm. High 90
Sun 7/26: Considerable cloudiness, very humid with thunderstorms likely. High 86.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-21-09: The visible sun is again spotless. STEREO satellite images of the sun show no sunspots on the side of the sun rotating into view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 67. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as @theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 23 2009 at 9:00 pm
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Tue, 21 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Sat PM
High pressure will provide a southwesterly flow of very warm and humid air for Saturday, as an approaching frontal boundary will cause thunderstorms later in the day. Partly sunny skies return for Sunday.
Sat 7/25: Mostly sunny, hazy, very warm (maybe hot!) and humid. Thunderstorms likely later in the afternoon. High 89.
Sun 7/26: Partly sunny, some clouds, less humid. High 85.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-21-09: The visible sun is again spotless. STEREO satellite images of the sun show no sunspots on the side of the sun rotating into view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 67. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as @theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 21 2009 at 9:58 pm
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Fri, 17 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Fri PM
The front is moving through much earlier than expected. Saturday will be dry and nice.
Sat 7/18: Early clouds give way to sunshine and warm temps. High 86.
Sun 7/19: Sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 84.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-14-09: The visible sun is again spotless. STEREO satellite images of the sun show no sunspots on the side of the sun rotating into view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 67. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as @theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 17 2009 at 2:25 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Fri AM
The frontal passage has speeded up and much of Saturday may be dry. Updates later
Sat 7/18: Showers early, then partial clearing. High 78.
Sun 7/19: Sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. Chance of a widely scattered shower. High 79.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-14-09: The visible sun is again spotless. STEREO satellite images of the sun show no sunspots on the side of the sun rotating into view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 67. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as @theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 17 2009 at 6:17 am
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Wed, 15 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
A frontal boundary ahead of an amplified upper cyclonic flow will pass through our area on Saturday. Low pressure is expected to form on this boundary and may give us heavy rain for Saturday.
This unusual amplified upper air cyclonic flow (something usually seen in winter) may produce instability clouds for Sunday due to the cool air aloft. A shower can't be ruled out.
Sat 7/18: Cloudy with rain, possibly heavy, in the morning and early afternoon. High 78.
Sun 7/19: tentative- Sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. Chance of a widely scattered shower. High 79.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-14-09: The visible sun is again spotless. STEREO satellite images of the sun show no sunspots on the side of the sun rotating into view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 67. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as @theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 15 2009 at 9:05 pm
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Tue, 14 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues PM
A frontal boundary ahead of an amplified upper cyclonic flow will pass through our area on Saturday. Low pressure is expected to form on this boundary and may give us heavy rain for Saturday afternoon.
This unusual amplified upper air cyclonic flow (something usually seen in winter) may produce instability clouds for Sunday due to the cool air aloft. A shower can't be ruled out.
Sat 7/18: tentative- Early sun gives way to clouds and showers and thunderstorms by late morning. Some of the rain may be heavy. It will be humid. High 80.
Sun 7/19: tentative- Sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. Chance of a widely scattered shower. High 79.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 07-14-09: The visible sun is again spotless. STEREO satellite images of the sun show no sunspots on the side of the sun rotating into view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 67. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as @theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Jul 14 2009 at 9:55 pm
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Sat, 11 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
The Bermuda high pressure stays put for most of Saturday, giving us a warm and humid summer day. A cold front pushes through late Saturday, and showers and thunderstorms develop late afternoon and evening. Heavy rains possible. It now appears that the front will be far enough to our south on Sunday to keep the area dry.
Sat 7/11: Partly sunny, warm and humid in the morning and early afternoon with increasing clouds late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop (possibly very late afternoon) but most likely in the evening. Rain may be heavy. High 84.
Sun 7/12: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and less humid. High 83.
Solar- Climate Update: The visible sun is again spotless. STEREO satellite images of the sun show no sunspots on the side of the sun rotating into view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, now below 70. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern may extend well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jul 11 2009 at 9:05 am
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Fri, 10 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Fri PM
The Bermuda high pressure stays put for most of Saturday, giving us a warm and humid summer day. A cold front pushes through late Saturday, and showers and thunderstorms develop late afternoon and evening. Heavy rains possible. It now appears that the front will be far enough to our south on Sunday to keep the area dry.
Sat 7/11: Partly sunny, warm and humid in the morning and early afternoon with increasing clouds late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop late afternoon and in the evening. Rain may be heavy Saturday evening. High 84
Sun 7/12: Partly sunny/cloudy and less humid. High 83.
Solar- Climate Update: A new, cycle 24 sunspot area developed over last weekend but is rotating out of view soon. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, slightly over 70. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern may extend well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jul 10 2009 at 4:44 pm
[/weather/jul09] permanent link
Thu, 09 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
The Bermuda high pressure stays put for most of Saturday, giving us a warm and humid summer day. A cold front pushes through late Saturday, and showers and thunderstorms develop late afternoon and evening. Heavy rains possible. Another disturbance approaches on Sunday, with some showers/rain possible in the afternoon.
Sat 7/11: Mostly sunny, warm and humid in the morning and early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop late afternoon and in the evening. High 87
Sun 7/12: A mostly cloudy in the morning, clouds and showers possible in the afternoon. High 82.
Solar- Climate Update: A new, cycle 24 sunspot area developed over last weekend but is rotating out of view soon. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, slightly over 70. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern may extend well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jul 09 2009 at 10:53 pm
[/weather/jul09] permanent link
Wed, 08 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
The Bermuda high pressure stays put for most of Saturday, giving us a warm and humid summer day. A cold front pushes through late Saturday, but the current GFS has the showers shearing off to our north. Another disturbance approaches on Sunday, with some showers/rain possible in the afternoon.
Sat 7/11: tentative: Mostly sunny, warm and humid. Showers and possible thunderstorms, if they occur, will be late or in the evening. High 87
Sun 7/12:tentative: A mix of sun and clouds in the morning, clouds and showers possible in the afternoon. High 82.
Solar- Climate Update: A new, cycle 24 sunspot area developed over last weekend but is rotating out of view soon. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, slightly over 70. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern may extend well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jul 08 2009 at 8:37 pm
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Tue, 07 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues PM
A Bermuda high will bring some summer-like weather for us on Saturday. But the generally cooler than normal pattern continues, as the Bermuda high moves off the coast and a weak cool front moves through late Saturday afternoon or night. An upper cyclonic flow continues to bring disturbances through our area for Sunday.
Sat 7/11: tentative: Partly to mostly sunny, warm and humid with a good chance of thunderstorms later in the afternoon. High 87
Sun 7/12:tentative: A mix of clouds and sun. Chance of an afternoon shower. High 84.
Solar- Climate Update: A new, cycle 24 sunspot area developed over last weekend but has begun to fade over the past day as it rotates out of direct line. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, slightly over 70. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern may extend well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jul 07 2009 at 8:50 pm
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Wed, 01 Jul 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM
A generally dry weekend in store, but the persistent upper trough will keep the chance of an afternoon shower with us.
Sat 7/4: Partly to mostly sunny. High 85.
Sun 7/5: Partly to mostly sunny. Some increasing cloudiness late in the day. High 84.
Solar- Climate Update: We will likely remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux is at about 68 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less total solar irradiance. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, likely well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jul 01 2009 at 7:32 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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