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Miscellaneous
Tue, 30 Oct 2007
Week Weather Outlook - Tues AM
High pressure continues through the weekend, as the coastal tropical low gets shunted to our east. An upper air trough moves through on Sunday. No precip expected with this. Colder temps move in during the day on Sunday.
The GFS model is showing the first signs of cold air moving into the continental US. The first phase will be on Sunday.....a more significant upper trough and colder temps will move in during the first full week of November.
posted: Oct 30 2007 at 8:13 am
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Mon, 29 Oct 2007Week Weather Outlook
After the soaking rains of the weekend, a large area of high pressure is expected to dominate the area for the next week. Some weak frontal boundaries will move through, keeping temperatures from rising too high, but no precipitation is expected through the coming weekend.
All of the models currently show the tropical storm in the Caribbean to curve out to sea, after moving close to Florida.
posted: Oct 29 2007 at 7:27 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Sat, 27 Oct 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM
The front moved through as expected, and cooler, dryer air is moving in tonight. The latest models suggest a brisk and cool Sunday, with moderately windy conditions.
Sun 10/28: Mostly sunny, some fair weather clouds. Windy! High 59
posted: Oct 27 2007 at 9:57 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Weekend Weather Update- Sat AM
A dry slot is developing, as expected, to our southwest and the rain will cut off between 12 and 2PM today.
The actual front is in western PA, so breezy conditions expected before the frontal passage. The sun is predicted to break out between 2 and 4 PM, with the GFS LAMPS forecast of closer to 3:30PM.
Sat 10/27: Rain, heavy at times in the morning, tapering off between 12 and 2 PM. Breaks in clouds with some sun mid to late afternoon. Windy. High 68
Sun 10/28: A mix of sun and clouds. High 61
posted: Oct 27 2007 at 10:15 am
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Fri, 26 Oct 2007Rain Ends Saturday Afternoon- Fri AM Update
The upper low rotates another patch of rain into our area today, Friday, through the morning on Saturday. It interacts with additional lifting dynamics of the passing cold front Saturday morning, giving heavy rain, ending early afternoon on Saturday. High pressure builds in on Sunday.
Sat 10/27: Rain, heavy at times in the morning, tapering off between 12 and 2 PM. Breaks in clouds possible mid to late afternoon. Breezy. High 68
Sun 10/28: A mix of sun and clouds. High 61
posted: Oct 26 2007 at 6:06 am
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Wed, 24 Oct 2007Rain through Saturday- Wed PM
The GFS model has done the best job at accurately predicting the rain rotating around the upper closed low that has begun to affect us. The NAM has joined the GFS with periods of rain through Saturday, especially heavy rain on Friday.
The upper low lifts into an approaching upper trough on Saturday. Heavy rain again on Saturday expected. The cold front moving through will end the rain by Saturday night. Sunday should be windy and much cooler.
Again, we're talking about an upper low, so things can change.
posted: Oct 24 2007 at 9:24 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Tue, 23 Oct 2007More Uncertainty in the forecast
As is often the case, the models do very poorly predicting weather associated with a closed low, and the situation this week is no different. Already, the rain predicted by the models for tonight into Wednesday is now uncertain because the NAM and GFS are handling the closed low somewhat differently. The GFS is much wetter over the next several days, while the NAM has high pressure building in by Thursday. I would bet on the GFS this time.
The forecast for the coming several days is dependent upon the movement of a closed low, now over the central portion of the country.
posted: Oct 23 2007 at 9:36 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Change in Today's forecast- Tues
The NOGAPS continues to forecast a tropical storm or hurricane early next week for the western side of Florida.
The original forecast for today, Tues, was that there would be a cold front passage late in the afternoon, with rain and thunderstorms possible. The GFS now has the front slowing down and stalling over us tonight into Wednesday, giving us rain late tonight into Wednesday.
posted: Oct 23 2007 at 7:38 am
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Mon, 22 Oct 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Mon PM
A strong low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes, as its associate cold front moves through late afternoon or evening on Tuesday.
Behind the front, somewhat cooler temperatures are expected, but still above seasonable averages. Another front moves through late Friday into Saturday, with showers likely during the afternoon on Saturday. Much cooler weather moves in for Sunday and Monday.
Of interest...the NOGAPS has a tropical storm or hurricane moving through the Caribbean/southern Florida early next week. Tropical moisture may move into our area the middle of next week.
posted: Oct 22 2007 at 9:15 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Fri, 19 Oct 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
A cold front will move through on Friday, clearing us out for the weekend. As mentioned two weeks ago, the amount of 'cold air' in our immediate vicinity isn't impressive. Temperatures will be mild over the weekend, despite the frontal passage.
Sat 10/20: A mix of clouds in the morning, more sun in the afternoon. Breezy. Still mild. High approaching 72.
Sun 10/21: Sunny and quite nice. High 74.
posted: Oct 19 2007 at 8:28 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Thu, 18 Oct 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs PM
A cold front will move through on Friday, clearing us out for the weekend. As mentioned two weeks ago, the amount of 'cold air' in our immediate vicinity isn't impressive. Temperatures will be mild over the weekend, despite the frontal passage.
Sat 10/20: Sunny and windy. Still mild. High approaching 70.
Sun 10/21: Sunny, less wind. High 72.
posted: Oct 18 2007 at 6:22 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Wed, 17 Oct 2007Week Weather Outlook- Tues PM
The models have moved the passage of the cold front from Saturday to Friday evening, so the showers and thunderstorms will occur on Friday instead of Saturday. Things clear out on Saturday, with breezy and sunny conditions. Overall seasonable to above seasonable temps continue.
posted: Oct 17 2007 at 9:00 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Sun, 14 Oct 2007Week Weather Outlook- Sun PM
The GFS medium range model has warm air returning to our area for much of the week as high pressure develops a warm moist flow, especially Wednesday through Saturday. The models are suggesting a chance of showers from Tuesday night through Saturday, but it appears that the most impressive rain will be on Saturday as a strong cold front will pass through the area during the day. Windy and colder conditions return for next Sunday.
The current GFS has temps in the 70s and even approaching 80 later in the week.
posted: Oct 14 2007 at 4:28 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Fri, 12 Oct 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Winds will subside as the closed low moves away and high pressure builds in for the weekend. Seasonably cool temperatures expected.
Sat 10/13: Mostly sunny and somewhat breezy. High 64
Sun 10/14: Sunny with diminished winds. High 66
posted: Oct 12 2007 at 9:36 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
The upper closed low moves away, reducing winds Saturday and Sunday. More seasonable temperatures as highs will be in the 60s.
Sat 10/13: Mostly sunny and breezy. The NAM is windier and bit cloudier with some fair weather clouds in the afternoon. Near seasonable temperatures. High 64
Sun 10/14: Sunny with diminished winds. High 66
posted: Oct 12 2007 at 6:08 am
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Thu, 11 Oct 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs AM
An upper closed low has provided the rain for the past two events. The NAM was more accurate with the precipitation amounts than the GFS for last night's rain.
Despite low confidence in closed low forecasts, the models are in general consensus that the closed low will move northeast and not affect us during the weekend. High pressure is expected to build in for the weekend.
Sat 10/13: Mostly sunny and breezy. Perhaps some fair weather clouds in the afternoon. Near seasonable temperatures. High 68
Sun 10/14: Sunny with diminished winds. High 68
posted: Oct 11 2007 at 7:57 am
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Sun, 07 Oct 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Sun AM
A weak front boundary will pass through sometime later this afternoon. Low soil moisture and minimal lift will make the chance of showers possible, but not very likely. Chances range form 20% to 45%.
A strange looking weather map for early October, where there appears almost no cold air except near the polar areas. Look for above normal temps for the balance of October and November.
Sun 10/7: Sunny, unseasonably warm and humid. A very slight chance of a thundershower later in the afternoon or early evening, but most areas dry.
posted: Oct 07 2007 at 10:10 am
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Fri, 05 Oct 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Warm, dry (and boring from a meteorological viewpoint) continues for our area over the weekend. The NAM-WRF has fog again tomorrow morning, burning off about 10 AM. Temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 80s. Similar weather continues for Sunday.
For next week, low pressure may finally give us some showers/rain about Wednesday and cause a break down of the Bermuda high block. However, temperatures look like they will stay very warm through next week.
Sat 10/6: Following morning clouds and fog, partly sunny, unseasonably warm, somewhat humid weather. High 87.
Sun 10/7: Similar to Saturday; the GFS has a high near 90, the NAM is closer to 85.
posted: Oct 05 2007 at 8:20 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Tue, 02 Oct 2007Week Weather Outlook
High pressure parked over the Atlantic will be with us for the next week or so. Sort of boring, meteorologically speaking, but this happens in October. The very dry climate trend also continues.
Increasing temperatures and humidity will be the trend, as a southwesterly flow will develop around the high after Wednesday.
The next big weather maker is depicted by the GFS for well into NEXT week, when a tropical system may form in the Gulf of Mexico and move ashore around Louisiana or Florida panhandle area, then move the east side of the Appalachians. This system would be a pattern changer, breaking down the stalled pattern of high pressure over our area by the end of NEXT week. It's a long way off, but that's the trend of the GFS long range.
posted: Oct 02 2007 at 8:18 pm
[/weather/oct07] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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