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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Miscellaneous
Thu, 30 Sep 2010
Weather Update -Thurs PM
The heaviest rains are on the way for tonight into the morning hours Friday. Over 2 inches additional precip with some areas getting significantly more.
A fall-like feeling for the weekend, as cool high pressure builds in. An upper air disturbance and upper trough will likely cause instability cloudiness to develop, but essentially dry and cool conditions for the weekend.
Sat 10/2: Mostly sunny in the morning, some cloudiness in the afternoon. High 65.
Sun 10/3: Sunny and cool. High 63.
posted: Sep 30 2010 at 7:46 pm
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Weather Update -Wed PM
An interesting pattern develops on Thursday, as the deep upper trough sharpens and negatively tilts, bringing in the moisture from a weak tropical system off the coast of Florida. All models are predicting 2-3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, and chances of local flooding for Thursday into Thursday evening. High pressure for the weekend.
posted: Sep 30 2010 at 3:13 am
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Mon, 27 Sep 2010Weather Update -Mon PM
A very interesting weather week, as the stalled front and upper developing trough are bringing much needed rain for the area.
The rain shifts offshore on Wednesday. A more interesting pattern develops on Thursday, as the deep upper trough sharpens and negatively tilts, bringing in the moisture from a weak tropical system off the coast of Florida. All models are predicting serious flooding rains for Thursday. Stay tuned.
posted: Sep 27 2010 at 9:43 pm
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Sun, 26 Sep 2010Weekend Weather Update -Sun AM
Even I fell for the GFS model yesterday, for what should have been another call for a highly uncertain forecast. Our recent weather pattern has made an abrupt change and the models are having trouble with the details. All ingredients for poor forecasts are in place: highly amplified upper trough, cut-off upper low and stalled fronts.
Already, the cloudiness has moved in and radar shows showers moving into Chester county. The more optimistic forecast from last night will be updated. It looks like showers may move in ahead of schedule.
Sun 9/26: Increasing cloudiness. Showers possible this afternoon. High 73.
Solar-Climate Forecast 9/26: Sunspot cycle #24 ramps up and solar flux values are considerably higher than this time last year. In the Pacific, a La Nina phase is also prominent. Expect ABOVE normal temperatures this fall and winter seasons in this area. Likely less precipitation and more snow changing to rain scenarios for the winter.
posted: Sep 26 2010 at 9:33 am
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Sat, 25 Sep 2010Weekend Weather Update -Sat PM
Still differences in the models, but the general trend is dry weather for Sunday with some degree of cloudiness in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers late in the day or evening.
Sun 9/26: Sunny early, then increasing cloudiness. Slight chance of light showers very late afternoon or evening. High 73.
posted: Sep 25 2010 at 6:55 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sat AM
A front will pass through during the early afternoon today, but the front will stall to our east, as an amplified upper air pattern develops, along with a closed low in the Appalachians.
This anomalous highly amplified upper trough will allow moist and unstable air to move in from the south, with the frontal boundary serving as a focusing mechanism. A prolonged period of rain and showers is expected from late Sunday through Wednesday.
Sat 9/25: Partly to mostly sunny and pleasant. Unseasonably warm. High 84.
Sun 9/26: Sunny early, then becoming cloudy by late morning. Chance of showers late afternoon or night. High 73.
posted: Sep 25 2010 at 8:39 am
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Thu, 23 Sep 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thur PM
A front will pass through and high pressure will move in during the day Saturday, bringing less humid conditions, especially noticeable by Sunday.
There is some uncertainty with the forecast for Sunday. The NOGAPS model has the front stalling right along the coastline as a highly amplified upper trough forms. Moisture is poised to return and may affect us on Sunday. The GFS has a different solution and keeps things dry for us on Sunday. This pattern change has results in an highly uncertain forecast for Sunday. Sunday may be beautiful or it may be cloudy and cool with showers late. Right now, it appears to be dry with increasing clouds.
Sat 9/25: Sunny and pleasant. Unseasonably warm. High 84.
Sun 9/26: Uncertain forecast: Partly sunny in the morning; Increasing clouds during the day. Chance of showers later in the day or at night. High 73.
posted: Sep 23 2010 at 11:08 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thur PM
A front will pass through and high pressure will move in during the day Saturday, bringing less humid conditions, especially noticeable by Sunday.
There is some uncertainty with the forecast for Sunday. The NOGAPS model has the front stalling right along the coastline as a highly amplified upper trough forms. Moisture is poised to return and may affect us on Sunday. The GFS has a different solution and keeps things dry for us on Sunday. This pattern change has results in an highly uncertain forecast for Sunday. Sunday may be beautiful or it may be cloudy and cool with showers late.
Sat 9/25: Sunny and pleasant. Unseasonably warm. High 84.
Sun 9/26: Uncertain forecast: Partly sunny. Increasing clouds during the day. Chance of showers later in the day or at night. High 73.
posted: Sep 23 2010 at 7:28 pm
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Wed, 15 Sep 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Wed AM
The dry pattern continues. High pressure will control the weekend, as a cold front shears off to our west on Sunday. An approaching tropical system late in the weekend is expected to stay out to sea.
The persistant upper low in northern Canada continues to rotate disturbances towards us.
Sat 9/18: Sunny and pleasant. High 78.
Sun 9/19: Partly sunny, some clouds mix in during the day. High 80.
posted: Sep 15 2010 at 8:29 am
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Fri, 10 Sep 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
The remains of what was hurricane Earl has developed into a persistent closed low in Canada. Upper air disturbances (eddy currents or "vorticities") are rotating around this low. A weak surface frontal boundary along in conjunction with an upper air disturbance is expected to develop showers over our area Sunday.
The latest GFS has the heaviest showers to the south
Sat 9/11: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Some high clouds move in late. High 78.
Sun 9/12: Mostly cloudy with light showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. High 75.
posted: Sep 10 2010 at 2:30 pm
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Thu, 09 Sep 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thurs PM
As often occurs with a hurricane passage, there's been a pattern change and an upper cyclonic flow is accompanying high pressure, giving us cooler temps.
The remains of what was hurricane Earl has developed into a closed low in Canada. Upper air disturbances are rotating around this low. A front along with an upper air disturbance is expected to develop showers over our area Sunday.
Sat 9/11: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Some high clouds move in late. High 78.
Sun 9/12: Mostly cloudy with showers. High 75.
posted: Sep 09 2010 at 6:55 pm
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Fri, 03 Sep 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
Hurricane Earl is tracking east of the Jersey shore, about 150 miles offshore. The shield of rain will pass by later today, as will a cold frontal boundary from the west.
Cooler and drier air will move in, allowing for clear skies and extremely pleasant weather for the weekend. Things warm up a bit for Labor Day, Monday.
Sat 9/4: Mostly sunny and very pleasant. High 78.
Sun 9/5: Sunny and pleasant. High 76.
posted: Sep 03 2010 at 2:30 pm
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Tropical Weather Update -Thur PM
The 24 hour eastward bias of the models has decreased and greater numbers of tropical and global models are showing the storm near its anticipated track/position about 180 miles east of the NJ shoreline.
There is less concern that the storm will track closer to the coastline than previously thought.
Nonetheless, expect rain and wind at the Jersey shore tomorrow. A series of cold fronts will move through Friday night and Saturday. Things cool down and skies should be sunny and bright in the wake of the storm.
posted: Sep 03 2010 at 9:22 am
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Thu, 02 Sep 2010Tropical Weather Update -Thur AM
The latest storm tracks for Hurricane Earl move it a bit closer to the NJ shoreline. The NOGAPS and one variant of the GFS have it significantly closer. The verification bias for the models continue to show an eastward bias in the 48 hour range.
Frankly, I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't been more preparation and announcements of a hurricane warning for NJ shoreline. Apparently, the official NHC track of the storm is far enough off the coast that the belief is there won't be significant effects. But I think this storm is too strong and the trends are too far westward not to take this storm seriously.
Again, I think this storm will be closer than expected and could seriously affect the Jersey shore. I'd be happy to be wrong about this. Stay tuned.
posted: Sep 02 2010 at 7:39 am
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Wed, 01 Sep 2010Tropical Weather Update -Wed PM
The various hurricane models continue to show consistency among themselves with hurricane Earl moving about 200 miles off the NJ coastline. That said, the NOGAPS continues to predict a slightly westward track from the pack. Additionally, the trend continues to show the predicted track to be biased towards the E-NE at 48 hours. Despite the official forecast for the storm to be about 200 miles from the NJ coastline, this storm still needs to be watched. I still think the actual storm track may be closer. We'll see.
Stay tuned.
posted: Sep 01 2010 at 7:48 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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