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Miscellaneous
Sat, 30 Sep 2006
Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
Last night's GFS continues with a rapid increase in clouds today and a chance of a very light shower (0.04 inches water) later this afternoon (Sat).
For Sunday, the heaviest rain is forecast for early Sunday morning, tapering off in the morning and ending before 2 PM.
Sat 9/30: Sunny and cool early, but increasing clouds during the day and mostly cloudy by early afternoon. Chance of a brief shower late afternoon. Breezy. Early morning 52, high 67.
Sun 10/1: Cloudy with rain/showers early, tapering in the morning and ending early afternoon. Some clearing skies in the afternoon. Breezy! Early morning 60, high 68.
posted: Sep 30 2006 at 7:27 am
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Fri, 29 Sep 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM update
Additional changes in the forecast from this afternoon's model runs....The GFS and the NAM-WRF shows significant middle layer clouds moving in very early afternoon on Saturday. The latest GFS and this morning's NAM even show a few sprinkles late afternoon on Saturday, but the amounts are so small that it's not clear whether it is model 'noise'.
The GFS continues to forecast considerable rain showers, now for much of Sunday, with showers lasting into the afternoon. (previously it looked as though it would dry out earlier.) Some uncertainty about this, so we'll need to update again tomorrow.
Sat 9/30: Sunny and cool early, but increasing clouds during the day and mostly cloudy by early afternoon. Likely dry, but chance of a brief spit late afternoon.. Breezy. Early morning 52, high 67.
Sun 10/1: Cloudy with rain/showers early, tapering during the afternoon. WINDY! Early morning 60, high 68.
posted: Sep 29 2006 at 6:04 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
The upper trough has moved through and cool/colder air will filter in today and Saturday. Another upper trough will move through early Sunday morning.
A transitional day today, as windy and unsettled conditions develop with sun, clouds and cool temperatures. High pressure tonight and early Saturday will bring cool, clear conditions, but the latest GFS has this next trough moving through a bit earlier, during the predawn hours of Sunday. As a result, skies will begin to clear earlier, during Sunday afternoon.
Sat 9/30: Sunny and cool early, but increasing clouds during the day and cloudy by late afternoon. Breezy. Early morning 52, high 68.
Sun 10/1: Cloudy with rain early, ending late morning. Slow clearing early afternoon. WINDY! Early morning 60, high 68.
posted: Sep 29 2006 at 7:26 am
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Thu, 28 Sep 2006Week Weather Outlook- Thurs AM
The strong cold front and upper trough, will pass through, as forecast, during this evening and nighttime hours. The GFS/NAM show showers and thunderstorms passing through this evening, probably sometime after 6 PM. The heavy rains forecast for central PA may not make it into Philadelphia. The front and its precip will be gone by 8AM on Friday.
A transitional day on Friday, as windy and unsettled conditions develop with sun and clouds. High pressure will bring very cool and clear weather for Saturday, but an approaching cold front may bring some clouds later on Saturday.
The GFS continues to forecast clouds and showers on Sunday.
Sat 9/30: Sunny, crisp and cool. Some increase in clouds in the late afternoon. High 67.
Sun 10/1: Cloudy with light showers/rain during the morning into the afternoon. Some clearing possible late in the day. High 69.
posted: Sep 28 2006 at 6:34 am
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Wed, 27 Sep 2006Week Weather Outlook- Wed AM
The deep trough expected to affect our area will move through a bit faster and earlier, late Thursday afternoon and evening. A transitional day on Friday, as windy and unsettled conditions will bring cooler and clear weather for Saturday.
Last night's GFS has a more significant rainfall for us on Sunday. Timing and amounts still not certain.
Sat 9/30: Sunny, crisp and cool. Some fair weather clouds in the afternoon. High 67.
Sun 10/1: Mostly cloudy with rain by late morning. High 69.
posted: Sep 27 2006 at 7:03 am
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Tue, 26 Sep 2006Week Weather Outlook- Tues PM
The deep trough expected to affect our area will move through a bit faster and earlier, late Thursday afternoon and evening. A transitional day on Friday, as windy and unsettled conditions will bring cooler and clear weather for Saturday.
A disturbance will pass through on Sunday, perhaps giving us showers...latest models keep most of the shower threat mostly to our north.
Sat 9/30: Sunny, crisp and cool. Some fair weather clouds in the afternoon. High 67.
Sun 10/1: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, although they may miss us and pass to our north. High 69.
posted: Sep 26 2006 at 5:43 pm
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Mon, 25 Sep 2006Week Weather Outlook- Mon PM
A deep upper trough continues to be forecast by the GFS for Friday and Saturday, which will bring much cooler and unsettled conditions to our area. Disturbances circulating around this trough may bring us showers. Right now, it appears that Saturday will be the best day of the weekend, as showers are likely on Sunday afternoon.
This is a significant pattern change, the first fall-like (and wintery) jet configuration for the current season. Exact timing of the showers for this weekend will be difficult in this medium range time period.
posted: Sep 25 2006 at 6:17 pm
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Sun, 24 Sep 2006Week Weather Outlook- Sun PM
The cold front is moving through as I write this update. Showers and thunderstorms did develop about 3 PM this afternoon. The GFS had accurately predicted this development, and the NAM did predict the few drops we had earlier in the day...but the NAM showed none of these afternoon showers in its forecast. I'll try to avoid the NAM when we're trying to predict snow totals! :-)
Once the cold front moves through later tonight, cooler and less humid conditions will move in. (The GFS has showers lingering in DE tonight as a small disturbance develops along the front.)
For later in the week, rain is being forecast on Friday, as a VERY STRONG cold front approaches for the weekend. A deep trough will give us windy, unsettled and much colder conditions for next weekend, at least through Saturday.
posted: Sep 24 2006 at 3:21 pm
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Philly Weekend Forecast Update- Sun AM
Satellite and radar show clouds and showers to the west of Philadelphia. The GFS and WRF still show showers/thunderstroms possible between about 2 PM and 6 PM for Philadelphia.
Sun 9/24: Becoming cloudy by mid day. Windy, very warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible between the hours of 2 PM and 6 PM. High 83.
posted: Sep 24 2006 at 8:04 am
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Sat, 23 Sep 2006Philly Weekend Forecast Update- Sat PM
The showers predicted by all the models for late afternoon didn't quite materialize (there were a few drops in Philadelphia.)
The latest NAM-WRF model shows the cold front bringing showers on Sunday afternoon, between the hours of 2PM and 6 PM, with the NAM favoring the earlier hours, the GFS somewhat later.
Sun 9/24: Mostly cloudy, becoming all cloudy by noon. Windy, very warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible between the hours of 2 PM and 6 PM. High 82.
posted: Sep 23 2006 at 10:15 pm
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Philly Weekend Forecast Update- Saturday AM
The showers with a warm front predicted last night for today have materialized and radar shows light showers scattered around this morning.
The latest high resolution WRF has most of the mid day hours [relatively] dry but heavier showers/thunderstorms moving in between 4 and 8 PM this evening. Not much in the way of sunny breaks today...clouds should be with us, but skies may brighten mid-day.
For Sunday, some sunny breaks during the morning and early afternoon with thunderstorms likely later in the day.
Sat 9/23:Cloudy with light showers possible in the early morning and heavier thundershowers again sometime between 4 and 8 PM. High 78.
Sun 9/24: Partly sunny. Windy, very warm and humid. Thundershowers late afternoon. High 86.
posted: Sep 23 2006 at 7:47 am
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Fri, 22 Sep 2006Big Change in Forecast- Fri PM
The latest GFS and NAM models have showers on Saturday, as a warm front will develop ahead of the cold front expected late Sunday. The GFS has very light showers through the day while the NAM cranks out significant showers for Saturday afternoon.
Sat 9/23:Cloudy with light showers possible in the early morning and again in the late afternoon. High 78.
Sun 9/24: Partly cloudy, Breezy, very warm and humid. High 86.
posted: Sep 22 2006 at 12:27 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
An approaching cold front will bring a variable amount of clouds and sunshine for Saturday and early Sunday. The GFS model has most of the precipitation staying to our far west on Saturday and much of the showers falling apart as the front moves through on Sunday.
The exact amount of cloud cover isn't a sure bet for tomorrow, Saturday. My guess is that there will be plenty of sunny breaks. There's more of a chance of showers mid-day into afternoon on Sunday, but probably not a rain-out and many areas may have light or no showers.
Sat 9/23:Mostly cloudy, but plenty of sunny breaks possible. Breezy and warm and quite humid. High 78.
Sun 9/24: Partly cloudy, becoming mostly cloudy by late morning. A chance of light showers early afternoon, but POPs are less than 40%. Breezy warm and humid. High 77.
posted: Sep 22 2006 at 7:23 am
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Wed, 20 Sep 2006Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
High pressure will be over us through Saturday. Earlier model runs had some showers moving through with a slow front on Saturday, but the latest GFS run has these showers delayed until Sunday afternoon.
The trend is for slower movement of the front, so we'll see if the showers get moved up to Sunday night.
Sat 9/23:Partly to mostly sunny, warm and increasingly humid. High 81.
Sun 9/24: Sunny, becoming cloudy by afternoon and showers possible by late afternoon. Breezy, warm and humid. High 84.
posted: Sep 20 2006 at 7:51 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM
High pressure is building in today, giving us some very nice early autumnal weather.
A cold front is expected to approach from the west over the weekend, but its movement is expected to slow down and waves of low pressure are expected to form along the front while it's still to our west. Depending upon timing of these waves and the actual placement of the front to our west, our weather may have have more or less clouds/showers over the weekend. Details are uncertain at this time.
Sun 9/23:Fairly cloudy, warm and humid. Chance of showers, timing uncertain. High 84.
Sun 9/24: Partly cloudy, warm and humid. Chance of showers...timing uncertain. High 81
posted: Sep 20 2006 at 7:51 am
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Tue, 19 Sep 2006Philadelphia Week Week Outlook- Tues AM
A strong cold front will push through this afternoon. The GFS has showers during the afternoon...the showers light in Philadelphia and heavier in NJ. Much cooler autumnal temperatures for the next few days where the high will be close to 70.
Another cold front moves through later in the week and there's a few disturbances that moves through over the weekend, with a brief period of light showers on Saturday...too early to pin down at this time.
posted: Sep 19 2006 at 8:36 am
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Sun, 17 Sep 2006Weekend Forecast and Week Outlook- Sun AM
Today will be beautiful...high pressure in control and warm weather. Monday will be even warmer with highs near 85 (NAM) or 87(GFS).
A strong cold front will move through on Tuesday, dropping temperatures to levels not seen since last spring. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to near 70s for the mid week.
Next weekend looks good at this point with seasonably cool temperatures. A tropical storm (or hurricane) is predicted to be heading towards the east coast of the US sometime towards the end of next weekend, but it will likely not make it close to the coast. Too soon to be sure.
Sun 9/17: Sunny and warm. High 84.
posted: Sep 17 2006 at 8:04 am
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Sat, 16 Sep 2006Weekend Forecast- Sat AM
The models consistently advertise that rain will stop between 10 and 1 PM and skies will brighten and start to clear during this same time frame, with some sun possible by early to mid afternoon and certainly late afternoon. The NAM is more optimistic about sun than the GFS.
Since I can't offer a different scenario, I'll have to go with that forecast, but I've been tracking the upper low feature over the past several hours, it hasn't really moved. It's got to start moving real fast for this forecast to work out. (As I've said, the models don't always do well with closed lows!)
Sat 9/16: Low clouds early with light scattered showers ending between 10 and 1PM. Skies will brighten and clouds will break during the afternoon, but an occasional dark cloud. High. 74 Shore: Same, windy and cool.
Sun 9/17: Mostly sunny and warmer after some morning fog. High 84.
posted: Sep 16 2006 at 6:07 am
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Fri, 15 Sep 2006Weekend Forecast- Fri PM
This afternoon was a perfect example of the sky appearance with an closed upper low. One minute it might look like there's blue skies and clearing, the next moment, low ominous stratocumulus clouds roll by. Tomorrow will be similar but with much more blue skies as the day progresses.
Tonight's latest NAM-WRF model continues to spit out the possibility of a scattered light shower, especially before 1 PM. Other versions of the WRF have showers out of here by late morning.
Sat 9/16: Low clouds early with light scattered showers ending early morning. Skies will brighten and clouds will break during the afternoon, but an occasional dark cloud or spit still possible. High. 74 Shore: Same, windy and cool.
Sun 9/17: Mostly sunny and warmer after some morning fog. High 84.
posted: Sep 15 2006 at 9:43 pm
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Weekend Outlook- Fri PM
There's been fairly high consistency with how the current model runs handle the closed upper low that's moving over us.
It appears that showers will gradually diminish by Saturday morning. Much of Saturday will be rain-free, and some clearing is expected Saturday afternoon.
Sat 9/16: Cloudy with showers ending early morning. Skies will brighten and clouds will break during the afternoon. High. 74 Shore: Same, windy and cool.
Sun 9/17: Becoming sunny and warmer. High 83.
posted: Sep 15 2006 at 11:57 am
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Thu, 14 Sep 2006Weekend Outlook- Thurs PM
A closed upper level low pressure system is still forecast by the models to move slowly through our area and depart on Sunday. Unsettled conditions, showers and cool temps are associated with upper closed lows. There's been fairly high consistency with each model run, but models do have a tough time predicting the weather associated with upper lows. Put another way, sometimes the weather is worse than the models predict and sometimes much better. :-)
It appears that showers will gradually diminish by Saturday morning. Much of Saturday will be rain-free, but mostly cloudy and unsettled conditions still expected until late Saturday. It will be very windy at the shore through Saturday.
Sat 9/16: Mostly cloudy and generally unsettled skies for much of the day. Can't rule out some breaks of sun mid-day and later afternoon, but any sun will be 'self-destructive'. Very slight chance of a shower, but mainly dry. Cool. High. 76 Shore: Very windy, and cool.
Sun 9/17: Becoming sunny and warmer. High 83.
posted: Sep 14 2006 at 9:15 pm
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Wed, 13 Sep 2006Weekend Outlook- Wednesday PM
As mentioned, the models have not been performing that well over the past few days. But it's time to take a stab at the weekend weather.
Following a very rainy day on Thursday, the GFS model shows slow clearing for Friday.
On Saturday, it shows a closed upper low pressure system right over our area, giving a mix of clouds and possible light showers, especially at the shore. The upper low moves out on Sunday, allowing warming and clearing.
Sat 9/16: Some partial sun early, but generally unsettled skies with plenty of clouds for much of the day. Chance of light showers, especially at the shore. Cool. High. 76
Sun 5/21: Becoming sunny and warm. High 85.
posted: Sep 13 2006 at 8:05 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Wednesday
The models continue to do very poorly in predicting the short range weather. There are showers that have developed this morning in the western suburbs that were not depicted in the models.
The models continue to show a rainy Thursday and clearing by Saturday, although the GFS hints at a closed upper low that may complicate the clearing over the weekend. With such poor short term model performance, my confidence in accurately predicting the weekend weather is low at this time.
posted: Sep 13 2006 at 10:09 am
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Mon, 11 Sep 2006Week Weather Outlook- Monday
Last night and today were interesting...the models didn't predict the cloud cover (and last night's showers). A tropical system is simply not handled well in the models. The clouds were the result of a NE outflow from Florence converging with a southwesterly flow directly over us.
It's not certain whether the clouds will dissipate for tomorrow, although the models say it will.
A slow moving low pressure system will bring heavy rain for Thursday into Friday. The weekend still looks quite nice!
posted: Sep 11 2006 at 6:40 pm
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Sun, 10 Sep 2006Week Weather Outlook- Sunday PM
A simple weather pattern this coming week...high pressure gives us fair, cool weather for Mon-Wednesday. Low pressure approaches on Wednesday night with rain into Thursday. Clearing and nice next weekend!
As expected, Hurricane Florence stays far offshore in the Atlantic, but its waves may affect the Jersey shore for the next several days. It was already noticeable today.
It's the end of the season for us down at the shore. My live shorecam will be coming down next weekend, 9/17. The cam hasn't always worked...we're using Comcast for Internet service at the shore and it goes down for us at least once daily, if not more. I've called them to repair it many times with no luck. What about the two times they didn't show for service calls?! The one time they showed up, they spent 5 minutes looking at it, said I have low signal and left. Based on my experience with Verizon DSL at home for >6 years and Comcast at the shore for 2 seasons, Verizon wins with reliablility and almost no service interruptions. And its speed is just fine for most everything. What good is 'super fast speed' if it has constant pauses, interuptions and services outages all the time?? Perhaps this isn't representative of all Comcast service, but it's certainly been representative of my experience with them. Just thought I'd rant a bit :-)
posted: Sep 10 2006 at 3:14 pm
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Sat, 09 Sep 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM
A cold front, will glide through tonight and will bring cooler temps and lower dewpoints for the next several days. Some instability will result in some puffy cumulus clouds on Sunday.
The NWS will be making corrections to the NAM-WRF model in the next week or so. The clincher must have been how poorly the NAM-WRF model handled the tropical remnants of Ernesto./i>
Sun 9/10: Partly to mostly sunny and nice. Some fair weather cumulus clouds in the early afternoon. High 78.
posted: Sep 09 2006 at 8:41 pm
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Fri, 08 Sep 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri
A weak cold front will pass through late Saturday. There's a very slight chance of light showers late afternoon, but it will likely be dry. High pressure builds in on Sunday.
It appears that hurricane Florence will be blocked from the US coastline and will move north and away from our coast.
Sat 9/9: Partly sunny, with a mix of clouds in the afternoon. Chance of a shower, but mostly likely dry. High 83.
Sun 9/10: Partly to mostly sunny and nice. High 80.
posted: Sep 08 2006 at 5:22 pm
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Thu, 07 Sep 2006Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs
Looking towards the weekend, a weak cold front will pass through on Saturday, giving us a chance of showers during the late afternoon. High pressure builds in on Sunday.
It appears that hurricane Florence will be blocked from the US coastline and will move north and away from our coast.
Sat 9/9: Partly sunny, increasing clouds in the afternoon. Chance of a light shower late afternoon. High 82.
Sun 9/10: Partly to mostly sunny and nice. High 82.
posted: Sep 07 2006 at 6:43 am
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Wed, 06 Sep 2006Weather Outlook- Wed
Looking towards the weekend, a weak cold front will pass through on Saturday, giving us a chance of showers during the late afternoon. High pressure builds in on Sunday.
Next week will be interesting as a new hurricane will approach the eastern US coast.
Sat 9/9: Partly sunny, increasing clouds in the afternoon. High 85.
Sun 9/10: Mostly sunny and nice. High 80.
posted: Sep 06 2006 at 5:44 am
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Mon, 04 Sep 2006Forecast Update- Monday
High pressure has built in for sunny skies today. Low pressure tracking up from the southwest will bring high clouds late afternoon and cloudiness for tonight.
For Tuesday, rain is expected. As much as 1 inch or rain, starting in the morning and tapering late afternoon.
Mon 9/4: Some clouds in the early morning, then becoming mostly sunny for much of the day. High cloudiness comes in late afternoon again. High 80. Shore: Similar to above. Light winds, becoming E-NE during the afternoon.
Tues 9/5: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times mid-day and tapering towards late afternoon. High in the 70s.
posted: Sep 04 2006 at 10:57 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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