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Sat, 27 Jun 2009
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM
High pressure keeps dry conditions here as a disturbance approaches from the west.
Sun 6/28: Sunny in the morning. An increase in clouds in the afternoon. High 82.
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posted: Jun 27 2009 at 10:36 pm
[/weather/jun09] permanent link
Fri, 26 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri PM
Following the frontal passage that occured this evening, we will have an overall dry pattern for both weekend days, but cyclonic flow aloft may result in puffy instability clouds each afternoon.
A disturbance appproaching late Sunday may cause showers late in the afternoon.
Sat 6/27: Mostly sunny in the morning, a mix of sun and some clouds in the afternoon. High 85.
Sun 6/28: Mostly sunny. An increase in clouds in the afternoon. High 84.
Solar- Climate Update: We will likely remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux is at about 67 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
See microblog updates and commments about the current weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Jun 26 2009 at 11:34 pm
[/weather/jun09] permanent link
Thu, 25 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Thurs PM
The forecast has changed (for the better) as the closed low expected to form will be over the Great Lakes instead of the NE. Following the frontal passage on Friday, an overall dry pattern for both weekend days, but cyclonic flow aloft may result in puffy clouds each afternoon.
Sat 6/27: Mostly sunny in the morning, a mix of sun and some clouds, more sun than clouds in the afternoon. High 85.
Sun 6/28: Mostly sunny. Slight increase in clouds in the late afternoon. High 84.
Solar- Climate Update: We will likely remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux is at about 67 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
See microblog updates and commments about the current weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Jun 25 2009 at 7:32 pm
[/weather/jun09] permanent link
Wed, 24 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
We will get a short spell of summer weather for the next two days, before another frontal boundary moves through Friday night. The latest GFS models show another closed low developing off the coastline as an unstable upper air cooler cyclonic flow will be with us again over the weekend. A few days ago, I thought we might be finally escaping this terribly un-summerlike pattern, but it appears that the weekend may become unsettled again with a mix of clouds and sun, somewhat cooler than average temps and several chances for showers. Exact timing of the showers will make or break this weekend.
Overall, the weekend looks mostly dry and will not be any sort of rainout (at least it seems that way now), but a slight shift in pattern or timing of showers might make things much less ideal than we all would like.
Sat 6/27: A mix of sun and clouds, more sun than clouds. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 84
Sun 6/28: Mostly sunny in the morning, then increasing clouds with a chance of shwoers in the afternoon. High 81
Solar- Climate Update: We will likely remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux is at about 67 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jun 24 2009 at 8:50 pm
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Mon, 22 Jun 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook
Some summer-like weather will finally arrive on Thurs with temps approaching 90. The coming weekend is looking pretty good and dry over all.
Solar Weather: Solar flux remains low, but there are again signs that solar activity is stirring with the development of some actve regions on the sun.
See microblog updates and commments about the current weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Jun 22 2009 at 9:07 pm
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Sun, 21 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sun AM
The damp weather continues, as a surface low and a closed upper low remain off of the NJ/LI coasts. Wrap around moisture, and some instability will result in clouds and light showers moving through.
Sun 6/21:Damp and cloudy with some light scattered showers in the morning. Some brighter skies mid day) and diminished chance of precip later in the afternoon. High 73.
Solar- Climate Update: We will likely remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux is at about 67 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jun 21 2009 at 8:15 am
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Sat, 20 Jun 2009Quick Weather Update
Radar shows the leading edge of precipitation entering western Montgomery/Chester counties at 8AM. GFS MOS LAMP forecasts show high probabilities of showers and thunderstorms starting as early as 10AM in Blue Bell. Rain will likely be here well before afternoon.
posted: Jun 20 2009 at 8:13 am
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Fri, 19 Jun 2009Quick Weather Update
Latest NAM model has a dry morning on Saturday with rain developing in the afternoon. Sunday looks cloudy and damp.
posted: Jun 19 2009 at 10:36 pm
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Philadelphia Week Weather Forecast- Fri PM
The latest models are having both days wet (yesterday, things had looked better for Sunday.) The incredibly wet weather pattern will continue on Saturday, as a weak disturbance moves just north of us and causes the development of a coastal low off the NJ coast. Showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening on Saturday and during the day on Sunday.
Sat 6/20: Mostly cloudy, showers and thundershowers likely during the afternoon and evening. High 80.
Sun 6/21: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. High 78
Solar- Climate Update: We will likely remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux is at about 67 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jun 19 2009 at 2:07 pm
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Thu, 18 Jun 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Discussion- Thurs PM
The incredibly wet weather will continue on Saturday, as a weak disturbance moves just north of us and causes the development of a coastal low off the NJ coast. Showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day on Saturday. The NAM (79) is cooler than the GFS (85) as a high.
Sunday is expected to be a mix of sun and clouds, but with the low just off the coast, a shower is possible, especially in the afternoon.
Sat 6/20: Mostly cloudy, showers in the morning and thundershowers likely during the afternoon. High 80.
Sun 6/21: Partly sunny/ partly cloudy. Chance of an afternoon shower. High 82.
Solar- Climate Update: As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 68 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jun 18 2009 at 9:16 pm
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Tue, 16 Jun 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Discussion- Tues AM
We had showers and thundershowers develop again late last night. This feature was not predicted by the models. The current anomalously cold and wet weather pattern is not being forecast well by either model. That said, the current forecast is for a similar pattern to what we have had-- high pressure remains to our north, giving us an easterly flow while upper air disturbances in an upper cyclonic flow along with surface lows give us periods of showers and rain. Look for this to continue through Friday with cool temperatures and cloudy, showery conditions. We may have some warm weather for Saturday.
Sat 6/20: A mix of clouds and sun. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 87.
Sun 6/21: Partly sunny/ partly cloudy. High 82.
Solar- Climate Update: As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 70 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jun 16 2009 at 8:04 am
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Sat, 13 Jun 2009Weather Update
Incredible rains today were captured well by last night's NAM MOS model which had a 99% chance of rain, a stat not often seen. I was checking the radar on my iPhone today and it was raining in many places except Center City until evening. The latest NAM data has a mix of clouds and sun for Sunday. A chance of a late afternoon thunderstorm, but most of the day dry, according to the NAM. High on Sunday about 80.
The uncertainty with the upcoming weather forecast continues. The earlier part of the week ahead was expected to be dry. Now, showers are expected as early as Monday.
posted: Jun 13 2009 at 11:13 pm
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Weather Update
Last night's NAM proved itself. Showers have already broken out around Philadelphia. Earlier than expected but not by much. Clearly, there's uncertainty with today's weather forecast.
posted: Jun 13 2009 at 10:32 am
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM Update
The NAM has a 100% chance of showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon. The GFS is closer to 60% chance. For me, this will be the final test of the NAM, since it has proved worthless for much of the season. The GFS has broken clouds today with the most likely time for showers and thunderstorms between 4 PM and 8 PM. The easterly wind flow will keep things cooler than average.
A mix of sun and clouds for Sunday, but dry weather expected.
Sat 6/13: Sunny in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. Scattered thundershowers likely, especially during the mid and late afternoon. High 80
Sun 6/14: Partly sunny. Cloudiness increases in the late afternoon. High 80.
As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 70 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jun 13 2009 at 8:49 am
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Fri, 12 Jun 2009Quick Weather Update
Latest NAM suggests a wet early afternoon on Saturday.
posted: Jun 12 2009 at 10:54 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM Update
The forecast has flipped around again, with Sunday being the better of the two weekend days right now. The damp, cooler than normal, unsettled weather of the past week continues into the weekend this time around. The GFS has some showers on Saturday, especially the late afternoon. Sunday should be mostly dry. The easterly wind flow will sock us in. Again, the specifics of this forecast is lower confidence than usual, since the NAM is more optimistic than the GFS for Saturday.
Sat 6/13: Sunny in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. Scattered thundershowers likely, especially during the mid and late afternoon. High 80
Sun 6/14: Mostly cloudy, more bright spots and breaks of sun than Saturday. Cloudiness increases in the later afternoon. High 83
As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 70 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jun 12 2009 at 5:51 pm
[/weather/jun09] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
The forecast has flipped around again, with Sunday being the better of the two weekend days right now. The damp, cooler than normal, unsettled weather of the past week continues into the weekend this time around. The GFS has some showers on Saturday, especially the afternoon. Sunday should be dry. The easterly flow will sock us in. Again, the specifics of this forecast is lower confidence than usual.
Sat 6/13: Mostly cloudy, some brights spots, possible breaks of sun. Showers likely, especially during the mid and late afternoon. High 80
Sun 6/14: Mostly cloudy, more bright spots and breaks of sun than Saturday. Cloudiness increases in the later afternoon. High 83
As I've been predicting since last October, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the end of spring and likely the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous lull in the the sunspot cycle. Solar flux remains at about 70 (at the height of the sunspot cycle in 2001 and 2002, solar flux values were near 200.) While an increase in solar activity has been predicted to begin, and there are some signs that it has, with such low values, our earth is simply receiving less heat. Additionally, low solar wind values allow higher energy cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere, seeding cloud formation. (Or so the theory goes.) Either way, continue to expect unusually cool weather on average for the next several months, possibly well into the fall and winter.
posted: Jun 12 2009 at 6:03 am
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Thu, 11 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Thursday
Low pressure is expected to depart on Friday, but high pressure, building in from the north may keep an easterly flow, keeping temperatures cool and some clouds and light sprinkles possible. There is uncertainty in this weekend's forecast.
The latest GFS model has rain and thunderstorms for Sunday which is a change from yesterday's models. Look for more changes.
Sat 6/13: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief light shower. High 80
Sun 6/14: Mosty cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely. High 83
posted: Jun 11 2009 at 7:27 am
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Wed, 10 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed
Major low pressure is expected to depart on Friday, but high pressure, building in from the north may keep an easterly flow, keeping temperatures cool and some clouds and light sprinkles possible. Most of both days will be dry.
Sat 6/13: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief light shower. High 80
Sun 6/14: More sun than clouds. High 83
posted: Jun 10 2009 at 8:01 pm
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Sun, 07 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weather Outlook- Sun PM
The clouds took longer to leave than originally expected on Saturday. The weather has been wonderful for most of the weekend.
An approaching front will bring showers to our area tomorrow. A familiar scenario develops where the frontal boundary stalls, giving us unsettled weather for much of the week. Details will likely change.
The cool spring continues, as total solar irradiance remains low due to a prolonged lull in the sunspot number. The single sunspot of last week has disappeared. The coming summer will likely continue to be cooler than usual.
posted: Jun 07 2009 at 6:12 pm
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Sat, 06 Jun 2009Update
The sun came later than expected. A mix of sun and clouds for Sunday
posted: Jun 06 2009 at 10:45 pm
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Fri, 05 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Friday
The heavy rains will exit this evening and high pressure will build in for the weekend. Sunny and dry conditions, with just a few clouds later Sunday as the next system approaches for next week. It's so rare that we have the rain during the week and clearing on the weekends! Always seems to be the other way around. Gotta love it.
Sat 6/6: Sunny and pleasant. High 80.
Sun 6/7: A few clouds early morning and again later afternoon, but mostly sunny and dry. High 83.
posted: Jun 05 2009 at 12:33 pm
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Wed, 03 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
The models over-estimated our rain today because the boundary of warmer moist air is just to our south, through Delaware. The models continue to show rain for us over the next few days, but the exact position may miss areas of Philadelphia and to our north.
High pressure is expected to build in for the weekend, giving us sunny skies but continued somewhat cool temperatures. Still, it should be nice.
Sat 6/6: Sunny and pleasant. High 79.
Sun 6/7: Sunny and a bit warmer. High 83.
posted: Jun 03 2009 at 6:55 pm
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Tue, 02 Jun 2009Philadelphia Weather Discussion
The cooler temperature spring that I've been writing about since March is still with us and it's likely that this cooler than normal and somewhat damp climate pattern will remain with us through the summer. Solar activity and sunspot levels remains unusually low and solar flux and total solar irradiance remains at a low level. There have been recent signs of the start of the next sunspot cycle (Cycle 24) and there is another single sunspot that has emerged, so we're beginning to see a slow upswing in solar flux level. Nonetheless, it will take awhile for things to return to the level seen a few years ago.
So continue to expect an overall cooler season.
In addition to the cooler temperatures and wetter conditions, the computer models have been doing poorly and I'm repeatedly surprised at how unreliable the forecasting models have been this year. The GFS continues to be better than the NAM model, but not as reliable as in past seasons. The NAM model has become almost useless, as far as I'm concerned. I know that the change in the model physics for the NAM that was introduced 3 years ago was supposed to improve things, but frankly, it seems that the model just isn't working. I'm sure that the scientists at the NCEP are aware of the problem.
The weekend looks mostly dry at this time. I'll update soon.
posted: Jun 02 2009 at 7:35 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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