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Thu, 30 Jun 2005
Weekend Weather Update
Sat 7/2: After a cold front moves through Friday night, becoming mostly sunny in the morning. There may be some clouds in the afternoon, as a wave forms to our south. High in the mid 80s.
A splendid weekend on tap, as high pressure will build in late Friday night, following a cold front (and thunderstorms) and remain with us through the holiday weekend. A wave may form on the front after it passes to our south on Saturday, bringing a bit of clouds for Saturday afternoon.
Sun 7/3: Sunny and warm. High in the mid 80s.
Mon 7/4: Sunny and warm. High in the mid 80s.
Shore Forecast: A bit slower clearing on Saturday, as some clouds may linger into late morning on Saturday or early afternoon. Then temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, closer to 80 on all three days.
posted: Jun 30 2005 at 5:35 am
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Wed, 29 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Outlook for Sat 7/2 - Mon 7/4
Sat 7/2: After a cold front moves through Friday night, mostly sunny skies. High in the mid 80s.
A gorgeous weekend on tap, as high pressure will build in by Friday evening or night and remain with us through the holiday weekend. Confidence is high with this forecast. Plenty of showers between now and the weekend, though, as tropical moisture and a front move through.
Sun 7/3: Sunny and warm. High in the mid 80s.
Mon 7/4: Sunny and warm. High in the mid 80s.
posted: Jun 29 2005 at 6:01 am
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Tue, 28 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Outlook for Sat 7/2 - Mon 7/4
I'm trying to assess the new RUC model....if it's real good, we'll have considerable showers this afternoon, although the other models are downplaying rain today.
Sat 7/2: Cold front moves through early; Clearing skies cooler temps. High in the low 80s.
The weekend is still looking good, as high pressure is expected to build in by Saturday.
Sun 7/3: Sunny and warm. High in the mid 80s.
Mon 7/4: Likely sunny and warmer.
posted: Jun 28 2005 at 6:32 am
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Mon, 27 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Outlook for Sat 7/2 - Mon 7/4
Sat 7/2: Cold front moves through early; Clearing skies cooler temps. High in the low 80s.
The latest GFS and NOGAPS models have a cold front moving through Friday with clearing skies (but possibly cold temps aloft and instability) for Saturday and Sunday. Too far away to call for Monday. (The new RUC model (Rapid Update Cycle) has been quite good calling the rain for today.)
Sun 7/3: Sunny and pleasant. High in the 80s.
Mon 7/4: Likely sunny and warmer. Too early to call.
posted: Jun 27 2005 at 7:10 pm
[/weather/june05] permanent link
Sun, 26 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sun 6/26: Mostly sunny. Some high cloudiness may move in later in the afternoon. High 90.
Continued southwesterly flow of hot, humid air for today, although temps are still predicted to be about 91 or so, rather than the extremes talked about on the commercial forecast venues. The big change will be this evening, when tropical moisture and dewpoints in the 70s become widespread here. Things will get humid and uncomfortable this evening. "It's not the heat, it's the humidity." A tropical disturbance and a cold front will bring unsettled weather and showers for earlier this week. The outlook for next weekend is very nice, as high pressure from Canada builds in!
Shore: The wind flow at the coast will be southeasterly in the afternoon, keeping temps in the cooler 80s fairly far inland.
posted: Jun 26 2005 at 7:59 am
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Sat, 25 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 6/25: Sunny and hot. High 92.
Bermuda high pressure will keep a southwesterly flow of hot and somewhat humid air over us this weekend. The MOS (model output statistics) keep temps hot, in the low 90s, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, not the intolerable 70s. The GFS now keeps low pressure away from us later on Sunday.
Sun 6/26: Mostly sunny in the morning, some clouds may mix in during the afternoon, making it partly sunny. High 90.
Shore: The wind flow at the coast is expected to become a bit more from the southwest, allowing the heat to get fairly close to the beaches.
posted: Jun 25 2005 at 7:56 am
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Fri, 24 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 6/25: Sunny and hot. High 92.
The commercial weather interests are exaggerating the heat for this weekend. It will be in the low 90s, but it's been hotter. Dewpoints are expected to stay in the 60s, instead of the very uncomfortable 70s. A disturbance approaching from the south on Sunday, (according to the GFS) may bring us some cloudiness in the afternoon, which will keep temps down a bit more.
Sun 6/26: Mostly sunny in the morning, some cloudiness possible in the afternoon. High upper 80s to near 90.
Shore: A southerly flow will keep things cooler at the beach, but quite hot just a bit inland. The flow at the coast is expected to become a bit more from the southwest, allowing some of the heat to get fairly close to the beaches.
posted: Jun 24 2005 at 6:09 pm
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Weekend Weather Update
Sat 6/25: Sunny and hot. High 92.
The NAM and GFS MOS (model ouput statistics) have backed off from the extreme temps predicted yesterday. (although they have been somewhat underestimating the temperatures.) The RUC model has temps in the low 90s and while humid, dewpoints will only be in the low to mid 60s, not the 70s. A southerly flow at the shore will keep things cooler just at the coast, but similar temps inland.
Sun 6/26: Mostly sunny and hot. High in the low 90s.
Shore: A southerly flow will keep things cooler at the beach, but quite hot just a bit inland.
posted: Jun 24 2005 at 8:16 am
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Thu, 23 Jun 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 6/25 and Sun 6/26
Not really much of a chance of any showers this weekend, according to the GFS. I'm beginnging to use the RUC model (Rapid Update Cycle) to predict thundershowers. It worked well yesterday.
Sat 6/25: Sunny and hot. High 95.
The cold front, previously hinted at, never makes it through to us. Bermuda High pressure will be parked off the coast, bringing hot temperatures to our area. Summer will be with us this weekend!
Sun 6/26: Mostly sunny and very warm. High in the low 90s.
Shore: A land breeze will keep things toasty, even at the shore.
posted: Jun 23 2005 at 1:09 pm
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Weekend Weather for Sat 6/25 and Sun 6/26
Sat 6/25: Sunny and hot. High 92.
The cold front, previously hinted at, never makes it through to us. Summer will be with us this weekend!
Sun 6/26: Mostly sunny and very warm. High upper 80s.
posted: Jun 23 2005 at 5:35 am
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Wed, 22 Jun 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 6/25 and Sun 6/26
Sat 6/25: Sunny and warm. Some increase in clouds in the afternoon. High in the mid to upper 80s.
The front expected to move through on Saturday may fizzle out, according to the latest GFS model.
Sun 6/26: Partly sunny and less humid. High in the mid 80s.
posted: Jun 22 2005 at 6:08 am
[/weather/june05] permanent link
Tue, 21 Jun 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 6/25 and Sun 6/26
Sat 6/25: Sunny and warm. High in the mid to upper 80s.
As always, the forecast often changes for periods more than 4-5 days away. Today, there's a question about a cold front that may drop south of us Saturday night and give us a northeasterly flow for Sunday. Put another way, Sunday may be cooler and have more clouds than previously thought. We'll see how it plays out.
Sun 6/26: Uncertainty, depending upon whether a cold front drops down Saturday night and gives us an easterly flow. Perhaps a fair amount of clouds, cooler temps.
posted: Jun 21 2005 at 6:14 am
[/weather/june05] permanent link
Mon, 20 Jun 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 6/25 and Sun 6/26
Sat 6/25: Sunny and seasonably warm. High in the mid to upper 80s.
A nice, summery weekend coming up. Bermuda high parked over us with a southwesterly flow of warm air for the weekend. A cold front may approach late Sunday.
Sun 6/26: Sunny and warm. Some increase in humidity. High in the upper 80s.
posted: Jun 20 2005 at 7:48 pm
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Sun, 19 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sun 6/19: Considerable cloudiness today, with occasional breaks of sun possible, especially south and east of Philadelphia. Clearing skies likely later in the day. High in the 70s.
A backdoor coldfront came through last night and a resultant easterly flow may result in more clouds than previously expected today.
posted: Jun 19 2005 at 6:42 am
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Sat, 18 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 6/18: Mostly sunny in the morning, a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. High upper 70s to near 80.
No significant changes. The low pressures system approaching from the south on Sunday will remain to our south. No showers.
Sun 6/19: Mostly sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy the afternoon. High in the mid 70s.
posted: Jun 18 2005 at 7:36 am
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Fri, 17 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 6/18: Mostly sunny in the morning, a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. High upper 70s to near 80.
A generally nice weekend, although some cloudiness is still expected to develop each afternoon, as a result of instability from the cool air aloft. Some upper air disturbances imbedded in the cool flow aloft will enhance cloudiness at times. Chance of an isolated shower is very low, but not an impossibility. Low pressure approaches from the south on Sunday afternoon.
Sun 6/19: Mostly sunny in the morning, becoming considerably cloudy in the afternoon. High in the upper 70s.
posted: Jun 17 2005 at 7:50 pm
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Weekend Weather for Sat 6/18 and Sun 6/19
Sat 6/18: Mostly sunny in the morning, a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. High upper 70s to near 80.
A generally nice weekend, although some cloudiness is still expected to develop each afternoon, as a result of instability from the cool air aloft. Some upper air disturbances imbedded in the cool flow aloft will enhance cloudiness at times. Chance of an isolated shower is very low, but not an impossibility.
Sun 6/19: Mostly sunny in the morning, a mix of clouds and sun. Cool. High in the upper 70s.
posted: Jun 17 2005 at 8:28 am
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Thu, 16 Jun 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 6/18 and Sun 6/19
Sat 6/18: Partly sunny in the morning, a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. High upper 70s to near 80.
The forecast uncertainty has moved backwards, as upper air disturbances are now expected to move through our area around the upper low, the source of the cooler temps. With the June sun, instability cloudiness will be difficult to time and predict, but the afternoons may have a fair amount of clouds.
Sun 6/19: A mix of clouds and sun. Cool. High in the upper 70s. There is a chance of a shower, but most of the day dry.
posted: Jun 16 2005 at 5:28 am
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Wed, 15 Jun 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 6/18 and Sun 6/19
Sat 6/18: Mostly sunny and cool. A few afternoon clouds. High upper 70s to near 80.
Things are clarifying for the weekend. High pressure will have pushed through and mostly sunny skies and dry cool temps are in the offering.
Sun 6/19: Mostly sunny. High around 80.
posted: Jun 15 2005 at 5:59 am
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Tue, 14 Jun 2005Heat
Everyone is talking about 'the heat'. Hey, it's June, it's [almost] summer. It's supposed to get hot. Today's NAM MOS has a high of 97 for Philadelphia! (But when was the last time the NAM was correct?)This morning's RUC model has showers/thunderstorms late this evening, around midnight.
posted: Jun 14 2005 at 6:46 am
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Weekend Weather Outlook for Sat 6/18 and Sun 6/19
Sat 6/18: Amount of cloudiness still unclear. Cool. High in the mid 70s.
Sun 6/12: Partly sunny and cool. High in the mid 70s to near 80.
A block pattern on Friday may allow development of weak low pressure along the coast that is expected to depart on Saturday. Upper air configuration will be cyclonic (trough) and cool high pressure will eventually build in on Sunday. Instability and cold air aloft may result in cloudiness, especially on Saturday. Should be mostly dry.
posted: Jun 14 2005 at 6:35 am
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Mon, 13 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Outlook for Sat 6/18 and Sun 6/19
Sat 6/18: Partly sunny and cool. Afternoon clouds. High in the 70s.
Sun 6/12: Partly sunny and cool. High in the mid 70s to near 80.
A large pattern change will bring in cooler weather for the weekend. The amount of clouds, from instability will need to be evaluated later in the week.
posted: Jun 13 2005 at 6:16 pm
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Sun, 12 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sun 6/12:Mostly sunny, warm and humid. High 85-90.
Moisture from Arlene is revolving around the core of the Bermuda high, further to our west. High pressure will allow more sun today with less of a chance of showers. The Bermuda high is expected to breakdown this week, and a springlike upper air trough will allow for cooler temps and unsettled weather for next weekend.
posted: Jun 12 2005 at 7:51 am
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Sat, 11 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 6/11: Partly sunny/partly cloudy, warm and humid. Chance of thundershowers in the afternoon, probably late. High in the mid 80s.
Sun 6/12:Partly sunny/partly cloudy, warm and humid. A chance of thundershowers late in the afternoon. High in the mid 80s.
Bermuda high pressure continues to move moist warm air into the area. The moisture from Arlene is already making its way into our area, increasing the amount of cloudiness and decreasing temps slightly. The NAM continues to predict about a 50% chance (POP) of thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, especially north and west of Philadelphia. The GFS POPs are lower. The Jersey shore will be drier, due to an onshore wind.
posted: Jun 11 2005 at 7:07 am
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Fri, 10 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 6/11: Partly sunny, warm and humid. Chance of thundershowers in the afternoon, probably late. High in the mid to upper 80s.
Sun 6/12:Partly sunny, warm and humid. A chance of thundershowers late in the afternoon. High mid to upper 80s.
Not much change in the forecast. The GFS and NAM(Eta) MOS (model output statistics) have temps a bit lower (mid 80s) for Saturday and Sunday, due to predicted increase in total cloud cover. Chance of showers on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, late. The NAM has a significantly greater chance of late showers on Sunday, compared to the GFS.
posted: Jun 10 2005 at 7:37 am
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Thu, 09 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 6/11: Partly sunny, warm and humid. Chance of thundershowers in the afternoon, probably late. High in the mid 80s.
Sun 6/12: More sunshine than Saturday. Warm and humid. Chance of thundershowers, probably late in the afternoon. High mid 80s.
A Bermuda high pressure system has established itself over our area, giving us a summer-like warm and humid southwesterly flow for the weekend. The GFSX (extended) MOS output has a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, especially in areas west of Philadelphia.
posted: Jun 09 2005 at 5:25 am
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Wed, 08 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Outlook for Sat 6/11 and Sund 6/12
Sat 6/11: Partly sunny, warm and humid. Chance of thundershowers in the afternoon, probably late. High in the low 80s.
Sun 6/12: More sunshine than Saturday. Warm and humid. Chance of thundershowers, probably late in the afternoon. High upper 80s.
A Bermuda high pressure system will establish itself, giving us a summer-like warm and humid southwesterly flow for the weekend. The GFSX (extended) MOS output has a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, especially in areas west of Philadelphia.
posted: Jun 08 2005 at 5:47 am
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Tue, 07 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Outlook for Sat 6/11 and Sund 6/12
Sat 6/11: Partly sunny in the morning, clouds mix with sun in the afternoon. Thundershowers likely. High in the 80s.
Sun 6/12: Similar to Saturday. Showers in the afternoon. High int he 80s.
The weekend outlook continues to be poorly defined. A general warm humid flow with afternoon thunderstorms seems to be in the offering. The GFSX (GFS extended) has a fair amount of clouds and 50% chance of showers each day. We'll see how things change over the week.
posted: Jun 07 2005 at 8:20 am
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Mon, 06 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Outlook for Sat 6/11 and Sund 6/12
Sat 6/11: Probably mostly sunny, warm and humid.
Sun 6/12: Too far off to make a call now.
A difficult call for the coming weekend...too far away and the models not in consensus.
posted: Jun 06 2005 at 9:11 pm
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Sat, 04 Jun 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sun 6/5: Following some very early morning clouds and fog, the sun will break through and summery conditions will be with us. Very warm and humid. High mid to upper 80s.
The NAM and GFS were accurate when they predicted lingering clouds for today. Tomorrow, summer arrives. The NAM MOS has temps well into the 80s.
posted: Jun 04 2005 at 4:42 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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