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Miscellaneous
Fri, 31 Jan 2014
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri PM
Following a brief warmup on Saturday, a front slowly moves through late afternoon Sunday but the dynamics and precipitation are expected to slip through to our north and our south, missing us.
The frontal boundary sinks south of our area Sunday night but stalls near Virginia as low pressure lifts through to our south on Monday. Any precipitation is currently expected to stay to our south, but uncertainty remains.
Before the front moves through relatively mild temps will be with us, but sunshine may be limited.
Sat 2/1: Considerable cloudiness in the morning, some breaks of sun possible during the afternoon. Relatively mild. High 44
Sun 2/2: Cloudy. Mild. Slight chance of a scattered shower. High 49
posted: Jan 31 2014 at 10:54 pm
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Tue, 21 Jan 2014Philly Winter Weather Update - Tues 5 AM
The latest NAM and GFS model data just became available. QPF values have increased to over 0.70 inches water which translates into a likely snowfall amount of about 10 -14 inches.
There's been high consistency with each model QPF amount.
posted: Jan 21 2014 at 5:24 am
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Mon, 20 Jan 2014Philly Winter Weather Update - Mon 9 PM
The latest NAM model data just became available. QPF values are still over 0.50 inches water which translates into a likely snowfall amount of 6-10 inches. Snow starts in the morning, accumulating about two inches. Snowfall becomes heavy in the afternoon with another 5 inches and another 2 inches in the evening.
There's been high consistency with each model QPF amount.
posted: Jan 20 2014 at 9:22 pm
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Fri, 17 Jan 2014Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri PM
An upper air trough and associated cold front move through before daybreak Saturday. A weak area of vorticity (an upper air disturbance) rotates through to our north and west, causing some light snow in the far northwestern suburbs and sideswiping the immediate PHL area with snow flurries. High pressure builds in behind the front.
There's much uncertainty with specifics about the long range forecast. The GFS model seems to change daily. The general theme is cold weather, with various upper air disturbances bringing chances of light snow. No big snowstorms in the current forecast, but that could change.
Sat 1/18: Cloudy with snow showers early, then partly sunny, windy and cold. High 36
Sun 1/19: Partly sunny and seasonable. High 42.
posted: Jan 17 2014 at 3:18 pm
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Wed, 01 Jan 2014Philly Winter Weather Update- Wed PM
The latest NAM model cranks out a QPF of over 0.40 inches water, translating to about 4-6, maybe 7 inches light powdery accumulation, with higher amounts in NJ. The NAM shows snow starting a bit earlier.
There is some consistency with this model run and earlier GFS model runs. This remains a dynamic situation, and changes in either direction are possible.
posted: Jan 01 2014 at 9:43 pm
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Fri, 25 Jan 2013Philly Weekend Weather Weather - Fri PM
The 0.06 inches water predicted by the models was probably exceeded slightly and the cold temps made the ratio 1:18, so in our area we had 1-2 inches of snow.
The cyclonic flow from the departing low will give us a mix of clouds and some breaks of sun on Saturday. High pressure builds in on Sunday, as the temps are able to finally increase to above freezing.
Sat 1/26: A mix of clouds and some sun. Cold and windy. High 26.
Sun 1/27: Sunny and cold (although milder than it's been in several days). High 33.
posted: Jan 25 2013 at 10:53 pm
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Philly Winter Weather Discussion- Fri 6 AM
An Alberta Clipper type disturbance in the upper cyclonic flow may cause very light snow to fall towards Friday evening. The upper air configuration does not favor development of the storm near Philadelphia and therefore minimal snow is expected.
The models push out a QPF of about 0.06 inches water. This suggests about 1 inch of snow.
However, Alberta Clippers that redevelop off the coast sometimes transfer so much of their angular momentum and vertical velocity offshore that their precip jumps over and misses our area almost totally-- it wouldn't surprise me if there's more salt on the roads than snow.
posted: Jan 25 2013 at 6:00 am
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Thu, 24 Jan 2013Philly Winter Weather Discussion- Thu PM
A low-pressure disturbance in the upper cyclonic flow may cause very light snow to fall towards Friday evening. The upper air configuration does not favor development of the storm near Philadelphia and therefore minimal snow is expected. In our area, expect nothing more than a flurries to an inch of snow. This sort of scenario sometimes results in zero accumulation. it wouldn't surprise me if there's more salt on the roads than snow.
posted: Jan 24 2013 at 7:58 pm
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Wed, 23 Jan 2013Philly Winter Weather Discussion- Wed PM
A low-pressure disturbance in the upper cyclonic flow may cause very light snow to fall on Friday. The upper air configuration does not favor development of the storm near Philadelphia and therefore minimal snow is expected. In our area, expect nothing more than a coating to an inch of snow. I'll update if things change.
posted: Jan 23 2013 at 8:32 pm
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Fri, 18 Jan 2013Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A return flow from the southwest will bring warmer temps this weekend. A cold front moves through Sunday evening.
Sat 1/19: Mostly sunny. High 50
Sun 1/20: Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy. High 46
posted: Jan 18 2013 at 11:33 pm
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Sun, 13 Jan 2013Philly Winter Weather Discussion- Sunday PM
A significant shift in the weather pattern is on tap for us in the coming days. As is often the case with pattern shifts, the models have significant problems with the changes and confidence in forecast specifics in the longterm really drops.
About the only thing we are confident about is that we can expect much colder temperatures over the coming week and there's the possibility that very frigid conditions will be with us in about 7-9 days.
What is less clear is the amount of storm development that will take place in our area. Indeed, there's even uncertainty about the next few days - will we get rain, or sleet, or ice, or snow? Or will the areas of precipitation slide to our south and we remain dry?
Expect frequent changes in the forecast weather over the next week!
posted: Jan 13 2013 at 9:02 pm
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Fri, 11 Jan 2013Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A weak front moves through tonight and weak high pressure builds in for Saturday. Mild temperatures in the 50s are expected. A southerly flow of mild air moves in for Sunday, but considerable mid level clouds are also expected to limit the temperature increase.
This weekend's mild weather precedes a major pattern change that will begin for most of the country and will be with us for at least the balance of the month. A broad upper air trough will develop this week, bringing much colder and windy weather. Right now, the trough will be broad, flat and positively tilted, preventing the development of any snow storms for us. The first chance of a snow storm for us may not be until the final days of January.
Sat 1/12: Partly cloudy/ partly sunny and mild. High 58
Sun 1/13: Considerable mid level cloudiness and very mild. High 62.
posted: Jan 11 2013 at 9:37 pm
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Sat, 05 Jan 2013Philly Weekend Weather Weather - Sat AM
A seasonably cold Saturday as high pressure controls our weather. Warm air returns aloft on Sunday, giving us some partly cloudy skies. (No snow seen for at least another week!)
Sat 1/5: Mostly sunny. High near 40.
Sun 1/6: Partly cloudy, partly sunny. Somewhat milder. High 44.
posted: Jan 05 2013 at 1:04 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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