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Miscellaneous
Sat, 31 Dec 2005
Forecast Update
Precip amounts reduced to 0.05 inches water. A bit more than sprinkles expected at this time. for today, Saturday. Ending by 7PM. Temperatures remain mild. (see detail here)
This is the last update for 2005! Have a Happy New Year!
posted: Dec 31 2005 at 10:39 am
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Saturday Morning Weather- New Years Update
Temperatures aloft today will be falling, but surface temperatures will remain 'warm', close to 40 and will stay above freezing tonight.
The latest GFS still has about 0.12 inches water falling this afternoon, probably as rain or rain mixed with a bit of wet snow. No accumulation. (see detail here)
For Monday, another low pressure system is expected to transfer to the coastline and redevelop. Rain is expected by Monday afternoon through the night
Very Cold air returns next Thursday and Friday.
Sat 12/31: Cloudy with light showers, possibly mixed with wet snow. High 40.
Sun 1/1: Partly sunny/partly cloudy and seasonably cold. High 44.
Mon 1/2: Cloudy with rain in the afternoon, possibly heavy. High 46.
posted: Dec 31 2005 at 8:53 am
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Fri, 30 Dec 2005Weather Update- Very Light Precip for Sat
Tonight's GFS has 0.12 inches water and the NAM has 0.05. Very light precipitation, more likely a mix of rain, possibly mixed with wet snow, will fall, starting about 1 PM and ending by evening. NO accumulation in the Philadelphia area expected, since temperatures on the ground will be near 40.
posted: Dec 30 2005 at 10:44 pm
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Weather Update- Mixed Rain and Snow for Saturday
I'll update this evening to check on temperatures for Saturday.
Latest GFS and NAM models have about 0.16 inches of water (QPF value) falling as mixed rain/snow during the day on Saturday. Atmospheric Thickness levels suggest that enough cold air exists vertically to support snow, but temperatures near the ground will be too warm to have accumulations. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing during the evening hours in Philadelphia and shouldn't fall below freezing until well after midnight.
posted: Dec 30 2005 at 5:35 pm
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Philly New Years Weekend Weather Update
As mentioned yesterday, the latest models show a somewhat colder scenario than previously expected for the weekend, with temps in the 40s instead of 50s. The GFS now downplays the amount of precip for Saturday.
For Monday, another low pressure system is expected to transfer to the coastline and redevelop. Rain is expected, especially Monday afternoon and night.
Cold air returns on Thursday after another rainstorm.
Sat 12/31: Cloudy with light showers, possibly mixed with wet snow. High 45 early, but temperatures getting colder in the afternoon.
Sun 1/1: Partly to mostly sunny and seasonably cold. High 44.
Mon 1/2: Cloudy with rain in the afternoon and heavy rain at night. High 46..
posted: Dec 30 2005 at 7:25 am
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Thu, 29 Dec 2005Philly New Years Weekend Weather Update
This afternoon's GFS model has low pressure, an Alberta Clipper type system, moving across our area on Saturday. Temperatures in the lower part of the atmosphere are looking colder for Saturday afternoon and evening. Showers in the afternoon may mix with light snow before ending, especially north. Slippery conditions are possible in the northern suburbs New Years Eve
For Monday, another low pressure system is expected to transfer to the coastline and redevelop. Rain is expected
Sat 12/31: Cloudy with showers, possibly ending as snow flurries. High 47 early, but temperatures falling later in the afternoon.
Sun 1/1: Partly sunny and seasonable. High 44.
Mon 1/2: Cloudy with rain in the afternoon. High 50.
posted: Dec 29 2005 at 6:19 pm
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Philly Weather Update
Timing and coverage of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes: Some showers now expected on Saturday. Mild conditions continue.
Sat 12/31: Cloudy with light showers. High 47.
Sun 1/1: Partly sunny and mild. High 49.
posted: Dec 29 2005 at 7:21 am
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Wed, 28 Dec 2005Philly Weather Update
Cold air probably will not return until after the first week in January.
A generally seasonable to mild forecast through New Years Day, as air masses are moving into our area from the west rather than the northwest. Low pressure systems for next weekend are expected (at this time) to shear off to our north and west.
For the week, a rainy day is expected on Thursday.
posted: Dec 28 2005 at 7:29 am
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Tue, 27 Dec 2005Week and Weekend Outlook
Cold air probably will not return until the first weekend in January.
A generally seasonable to mild forecast through New Years Day, as air masses are moving into our area from the west rather than the northwest. Low pressure systems for next weekend are expected (at this time) to shear off to our north and west.
posted: Dec 27 2005 at 8:04 am
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Mon, 26 Dec 2005Monday Weather
An upper air low is directly over our area today and will depart tonight. Thickening clouds this afternoon as instability increases. Windy conditions.
posted: Dec 26 2005 at 10:51 am
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Sun, 25 Dec 2005Xmas Day Update and Channukah Forecast
After a partly sunny start today, clouds are expected to move in rapidly with the approach of low pressure tonight. Rain starts mid afternoon, probably about 2-4 PM and becomes heavy before ending after midnight.
The low deepens off the coast, giving us slow clearing and windy conditions on Monday. Temperatures will fall during the day.
After a cold start on Tuesday, current temps for the week look normal to above normal.
Sun 12/25: Some sun early, becoming cloudy by noon, then rain in the mid afternoon, most likely after 2-4PM. High 50
Mon 12/26: Rain ending before daybreak. Possible brief light sprinkle during the day, but essentially dry. Mostly cloudy and unsettled. Windy. High near 50 early, but becoming chillier during the day.
posted: Dec 25 2005 at 9:43 am
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Sat, 24 Dec 2005Changes in the forecast!
Low pressure is expected to approach on Sunday, but the latest model has the rain delayed until mid to late afternoon on Sunday, and then continue through Sunday night with slow clearing on Monday.
Sat 12/24: Sunny and mild. High 52.
Sun 12/25: Some sun early, becoming cloudy by noon, then rain in the mid afternoon, most likely after 3PM. High 49.
Mon 12/26: Rain ending early morning. Slow clearing, windy but remaining mild. High near 50.
posted: Dec 24 2005 at 4:39 pm
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Fri, 23 Dec 2005Xmas Weekend Weather Update
The accentuated upper air trough and colder temps will return next week.
Warm air will be with us this weekend, as the upper air pattern that's been with us for this month will flatten briefly. Low pressure will move towards us Saturday night and a coastal low will develop on Sunday. We'll still be on the warm side of the storm, so rain on Sunday, heavy at times, rather than snow.
posted: Dec 23 2005 at 8:49 am
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Thu, 22 Dec 2005Upcoming Xmas Weekend Weather
Sat 12/24: Partly sunny and mild. Breezy. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High 52.
Warm air (relatively warm) will finally make it into our area from Friday through Sunday. Low pressure will move in from the southwest giving us rain for Sunday and will depart before a cold front brings cold air back to us for next week.
posted: Dec 22 2005 at 7:26 am
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Wed, 21 Dec 2005Weekend Now Warmer and Wetter
We'll keep an eye on this.
Sat 12/24: Partly to mostly sunny and mild. High 52.
The GFS model continues to vascillate between an intense, phased coastal storm (rain for us) on Sunday and a less intense unphased system which just brings light rain. The latest GFS shows a simple unphased rain with no changeover to snow. The NOGAPS model supports this solution and has the phasing occurring far out in the ocean.
posted: Dec 21 2005 at 7:07 am
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Tue, 20 Dec 2005Snow Possibility for Sunday, Xmas Day!
The latest model again has deep low pressure develop on the coast, then drag a front through on Sunday afternoon, with lingering rain turning to snow Sunday night. I'll keep an eye on this for you!
Sat 12/24: Partly sunny and mild. Chance of a shower late in the afternoon. High 45.
The GFS model has returned to a rain --> snow forecast for Xmas day. Two days ago, the GFS hinted at a deep low pressure moving up the coast, then becoming "negatively tilted" and bringing wrap-around snow at the end. Yesterday's model had this scenario disappear.
posted: Dec 20 2005 at 8:34 pm
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Xmas Weekend Outlook
General Outlook for the coming weekend:
Moderating temperatures for the end of the week, as the current upper air pattern relaxes a bit. A disturbance moving to our north will bring a very slight chance of showers and some clouds. (The storm previously predicted for Xmas day is no longer predicted to develop.)
posted: Dec 20 2005 at 6:03 am
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Sun, 18 Dec 2005Quiet Week Ahead Weatherwise- Xmas Weekend Outlook
General Outlook for the coming weekend:
More cold air is expected to stream in on Monday, but a quiet week on tap with no storms expected for us through Saturday. A slight warmup is expected through X-mas eve on Saturday, as the pattern for the past several weeks relaxes a bit.
posted: Dec 18 2005 at 6:03 pm
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Sat, 17 Dec 2005Mid Level Clouds and a warm up
A slight warmup is expected by the end of the week!
The stalled frontal boundary to our south is allowing moisture in the form of clouds to spill over the top. High and mid level clouds are expected for today and at least the early half of Sunday. Precipitation should remain to our south.
posted: Dec 17 2005 at 7:30 am
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Fri, 16 Dec 2005Weekend Weather Update - Friday Night
Cold high pressure will be over us for the majority of the weekend. A storm will develop along the frontal boundary well to our south and move off the coast late Sunday. Some of the mid level and high cloudiness with this system may reduce some of the sunshine here both Saturday and Sunday. The current GFS and NAM models keep the precipitation out of our area.
Sat 12/17: Partly sunny, but some high and midlevel clouds at times. Breezy and seasonably cold. High 42.
Sun 12/18: Partly sunny, again with mid and high level clouds at times, especially in the afternoon. High 40.
posted: Dec 16 2005 at 11:10 pm
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Weekend Weather Update - Friday Afternoon
Cold high pressure will be over us for the majority of the weekend. A storm will develop along the frontal boundary well to our south and move off the coast late Sunday. The current GFS and NAM models keep the precipitation well to our south at this time.
Sat 12/17: Sunny, breezy and seasonably cold. High 42.
Sun 12/18: Sunny in the morning. Some increase in clouds in the afternoon. High 40.
posted: Dec 16 2005 at 3:35 pm
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Thu, 15 Dec 2005Weekend Weather for Philadelphia
The GFS did best again today with the snow starting about 3PM. It's rain now and temps should stay in the upper 30s.
Once tonight's weather departs (about 8AM on Friday) things should clear out and become windy. The weekend will feel warm (although temps will be just about normal) as high pressure builds in.
Sat 12/17: Sunny, breezy and seasonably cold. High 42.
Sun 12/18: Mostly sunny. Possibly some clouds in the afternoon. High 42.
posted: Dec 15 2005 at 10:09 pm
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Sleet and Freezing Rain Update- Thursday 1 PM
(I managed to access the internet today from work.) The latest GFS has some light snow starting as early 3-4 PM, although the NAM and RUC models continue with snow starting between 5 and 7PM. I generally favor the GFS and radar reports suggest a compromise of 4-5 PM start. Dry air may prevent this precip from hitting the ground initially. The models continue with a quick changeover to sleet and freezing rain by 6-7PM and continuing as freezing rain until at least 9 or 10PM. A final changeover to rain is expected by midnight in all areas except far north and west suburbs. Driving may become difficult from 7 to 10 PM.
Over 1 inch of rain is expected. With snow on the ground and existing ice, roadway ponding and roadway flooding may occur. This will present as another hazard after the changeover to rain.
posted: Dec 15 2005 at 1:41 pm
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Sleet and Freezing Rain Update- Thurs AM
Latest GFS has light snow starting closer to 5-7 PM and quickly changing to sleet and freezing rain until about 11 PM. All rain later. (Gridpoint NE Philadelphia) Total rainfall will be about an inch liquid overnight. While surface temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing around 5 PM, the models often don't capture a 'cold air damming', meaning that cold air remains trapped at the surface often longer than predicted. As a result, a several hour period of freezing rain and difficult driving can be expected from 7 PM through 11 PM tonight.
For the weekend, high pressure builds in after the storm departs on Friday. A storm approaches late Sunday, but it is expected to move out to our south.
Sat 12/17: Sunny, breezy and seasonably cold. High 42.
Sun 12/18: Sunny in the morning, some cloudiness in the afternoon. High 43.
posted: Dec 15 2005 at 7:38 am
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Wed, 14 Dec 2005Sleet and Freezing Rain for Thursday Night.
Latest GFS model run continues to delay precipitation on Thursday until early evening. Snow/sleet may start about 4-7PM in Philadelphia (earlier south and west). Following a brief period of light snow, temperatures in the lower half of the atmosphere become too warm for snow, but temps in the lower 7000 feet still are below freezing until 7 or 8PM, allowing any snow to turn to sleet. Temperatures on the ground may remain colder than expected for a longer period of time, allowing sleet and rain to become freezing rain for much of the evening, especially north and west of the city. A complete turnover to rain should occur after midnight. A brief period of snow possible before it all ends on Friday morning.
For the weekend, high pressure builds in after the storm departs on Friday. A storm approaches late Sunday, but it is expected to move out to our south.
Sat 12/17: Sunny, windy and seasonably cold. High 42.
Sun 12/18: Sunny in the morning, some cloudiness in the afternoon. High 39.
posted: Dec 14 2005 at 4:18 pm
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Philly Weather Update- Wednesday Morning
Consistency in the model runs with this next event. Precipitation will start late Thursday, probably between 4-6 PM in Philadelphia. Initially as a brief period of snow, it will change to sleet, freezing rain and rain rapidly during the evening. Still some question whether cold air will linger at the surface, causing icy conditions in the suburbs at the start. Either way, a changeover to rain will occur and the rain will end on Friday.
For the weekend, high pressure builds in after the storm departs on Friday. A storm approaches late Sunday, but it is expected to move out to our south.
Sat 12/17: Sunny, windy and seasonably cold. High 42.
Sun 12/18: Sunny in the morning, some cloudiness in the afternoon. High 39.
posted: Dec 14 2005 at 8:19 am
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Tue, 13 Dec 2005Philly Weather Update- Tuesday Morning
Going with the GFS, snow starts between 4 and 6 PM on Thursday (earlier south and west of the city) and then changes to sleet, freezing rain and then all rain. Temperatures in the upper atmosphere warm up, BUT there will be a period where temperatures at the surface will be at or below freezing. A period of freezing rain will make driving difficult on Thursday evening, between 6 and 10 PM before the changeover to rain. That period will be extended in areas north of the city. Once the changeover to rain occurs, it will continue into early morning on Friday. Temperatures will fall on Friday again.
There appears to be great consistency with the upcoming winter event for Thursday, with both the GFS and NAM having more wet than white falling.
posted: Dec 13 2005 at 8:10 am
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Mon, 12 Dec 2005Philly Weather Update- Monday Evening
The latest GFS and NAM continues to have the precipitation on Thursday begin late afternoon or early evening. While starting as light snow, it is expected to quickly turn to sleet and then rain. There is the possibility of some freezing rain occuring if cold air remains trapped at the surface. The majority of the precipitation will be rain, possibly changing back to snow before ending mid day on Friday.
The weekend looks dry and continued cold.
posted: Dec 12 2005 at 9:26 pm
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Sun, 11 Dec 2005Philly Weather Update
For the next storm, the latest GFS has delayed the precipitation until late Thursday and Thursday night. The atmospheric thickness level (average temperature of the atmosphere) appears to be above that will support snow. The precipitation may starts as sleet or freezing rain on Thursday afternoon, but is expected to change over to sleet and rain over the night time hours.
This storm continues to evolve, so expect changes in the next few days. But a delay into Thursday night and warmer temps is a likely trend.
posted: Dec 11 2005 at 7:03 pm
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Philly Weekend Weather Update
Warm air will attempt to move in today, over the cold air at the surface. Some cloudiness will develop in the afternoon.
Cold weather moves in after a front passes through Monday morning. Very cold conditions for Monday night through Tuesday.
Another storm is expected to affect our area Wednesday night into Thursday. It looks like we'll be on the warm side of this storm, so any precipitation starting as snow or sleet will likely change to rain.
Very cold weather returns for next weekend.
Sun 12/11: After morning sunny skies, becoming mostly cloudy. High 41.
posted: Dec 11 2005 at 9:03 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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