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Miscellaneous
Tue, 31 May 2005
Weekend Weather for Sat 6/4 and Sun 6/5
Sat 6/4: Clouds early break for sunshine by late morning. A slight chance of a shower late in the afternoon. High in the low 80s.
Sun 6/5: Partly sunny warm and humid. High in the low 80s. Chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
A weak and poorly defined weather pattern for the coming weekend. A general warmer flow will interact with weak disturbances, causing a chance of a shower each afternoon, especially Sunday. Expect changes in the forecast.
posted: May 31 2005 at 6:44 pm
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Weekend Weather for Sat 6/4 and Sun 6/5
Sat 6/4: Partly sunny warm and a bit humid. High in the low 80s. Chance of a late afternoon thundershower.
Sun 6/5: Partly sunny warm and humid. High in the low 80s. Increasing cloudiness late in the day.
Details for the coming weekend remain unclear. Generally warmer conditions expected, but small disturbances in the upper flow may result in late afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Details need to be updated for upcoming weekend.
posted: May 31 2005 at 6:17 am
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Sun, 29 May 2005Memorial Day Weekend Weather Update
Mon 5/30: Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness after 2 PM. Chance of a light shower in the evening. High 78
The good weather continues into much of Monday
posted: May 29 2005 at 9:39 pm
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Sat, 28 May 2005Memorial Day Weekend Weather Update
Sun 5/29: Mostly sunny during morning. Some clouds mix in during the afternoon. Chance of a shower late. High 77.
Mon 5/30: Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Rain in the evening. High 78.
Interesting weather on Saturday afternoon, but it never made it down to the shore.
posted: May 28 2005 at 11:03 pm
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Memorial Day Weekend Weather Update
Sat 5/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Showers after 5 PM. High 78.
Sun 5/29: Perhaps some lingering early morning cloudiness (especially at the shore), then becoming mostly sunny during morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 77.
Mon 5/30: Mostly sunny in the morning, mixes with a few clouds in the afternoon. High 74.
A great weekend shaping up. Current forecast still looks good. A bit cool, but we'll take it!
posted: May 28 2005 at 10:55 am
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Fri, 27 May 2005Memorial Day Weekend Weather Update
Sat 5/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Showers after 5 PM. High 78.
Sun 5/29: Perhaps some lingering early morning cloudiness (especially at the shore), then becoming mostly sunny by late morning. High 77.
Mon 5/30: Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Showers possible by evening. High 74.
A great weekend shaping up. Current forecast still looks good. While there's a statistically small chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon around 5 PM, it's not a very high chance.
posted: May 27 2005 at 10:20 am
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Thu, 26 May 2005Memorial Day Weekend Weather Update
Sat 5/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Showers after 4 PM. High 78.
Sun 5/29: Perhaps some lingering early morning cloudiness (especially at the shore), then becoming mostly sunny by late morning. High in the mid 70s.
Mon 5/30: Mostly sunny. High in the low 70s.
No real changes with the models.
posted: May 26 2005 at 5:43 pm
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Wed, 25 May 2005Memorial Day Weekend Weather
Sat 5/28: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Showers at night. High 78.
Sun 5/29: Cloudy early morning, then becoming mostly sunny. High in the mid 70s.
Mon 5/30: Mostly sunny. High in the low 70s.
Latest GFS looking better, with the front moving through on Saturday night.
posted: May 25 2005 at 6:08 pm
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Weekend Weather for 5/28 through 5/30
Sat 5/28: Partly sunny. Chance of an afternoon shower. High in the upper 70s.
Sun 5/29: Mostly sunny. Chance of a scattered afternoon shower. High in the mid 70s.
Mon 5/30: Sunny in the morning, some increasing cloudiness in the late afternoon. High in the low 70s.
The forecast continues to look more optimistic. The blocked upper low pattern will gradually depart. Weak high pressure will gradually build in, although a weak cool front will move through on Saturday afternoon bringing a slight chance of a shower. Most of the weekend dry.
posted: May 25 2005 at 6:20 am
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Tue, 24 May 2005Memorial Day Weekend Weather
Sat 5/28: Partly sunny. Chance of an afternoon shower. High in the 70s.
Sun 5/29: Mostly sunny. Chance of a scattered afternoon shower. High in the mid 70s.
Mon 5/30: Sunny in the morning, some increasing cloudiness in the late afternoon. High in the 70s.
Things are looking a bit better for the weekend, although an unsettled pattern consisting of a mix of some clouds and a late shower is still in the cards. The upper low is expected to finally depart, slowly to the northeast.
posted: May 24 2005 at 5:53 am
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Mon, 23 May 2005Weekend Weather for the Memorial Day Weekend
Sat 5/28: Partly sunny. Chance of an afternoon shower. High in the 70s.
Sun 5/29: Mostly sunny. Chance of a scattered afternoon shower. High in the 70s.
Mon 5/30: who knows! :)
The current pattern of an upper low over the northeast, blocked from exiting, and an overall cyclonic flow is impossible to nail down details, even for the next 24 hours. Forget about an accurate forecast of the coming weekend. Differences between the Navy NOGAPS model and the GFS already exist. My experience says that the upper low will break down by the weekend and things will be better than currently forecast.
posted: May 23 2005 at 5:19 pm
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Sun, 22 May 2005Weather Update
Those of you who are frequent visitors here know I'm updating the site to allow for comments to appear on each of the forecasts. Still working on getting these scripts to work, but I hope to have that operational within several weeks.
Sun 5/22: Mostly cloudy. Cool and breezy. The latest NAM has showers this afternoon and rain tomorrow. High today upper 60s.
Low pressure is expected to move in from the west later today, as a blocked upper air low rotates and retrogrades westward to our area. Cold air aloft and the upper low will cause instability today, with significant clouds and showers possible this afternoon.
posted: May 22 2005 at 9:29 am
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Sat, 21 May 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 5/21 and Sun 5/22
Sat 5/21: Sunny in the morning. A mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. Slight chance of a shower or thundershower late in the afternoon. Count on a dry day for most of the time. High near 71.
Sun 5/22: A fair amount of clouds around, some sunny breaks. High near 69.
Low pressure that moved through on Friday is caught in a blocking pattern off the coast. It will rotate off the coast, bringing small pockets of moisture and energy (areas of vorticity) that may result in a shower late today, especially north of our area. (The NAM has a good chance of showers; the GFS has a very low chance. The low remains off the coast into Monday, but less of these pockets of moisture expected for Sunday. Moreso on Monday.
posted: May 21 2005 at 8:13 am
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Fri, 20 May 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 5/21 and Sun 5/22
Sat 5/21: Becoming sunny in the morning. A mix of sun and a few clouds in the afternoon. Chance of a shower or thundershower in the afternoon. Exact timing not possible. High near 70.
Sun 5/22: Sunny in the morning, then some clouds start moving in during the afternoon. High near 72.
Low pressure giving us rain today (Friday) will exit tonight but will be blocked in the Atlantic. The system will retrograde back towards Maine on Saturday and an upper air disturbance is expected to rotate around the low over us on Saturday afternoon, giving us a chance of a shower or thundershower. Another low approaches late Sunday.
posted: May 20 2005 at 6:25 am
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Thu, 19 May 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 5/21 and Sun 5/22
Sat 5/21: Becoming sunny in the morning. A mix of sun and a few clouds in the afternoon. High upper 60s to near 70.
Sun 5/22: Sunny in the morning and early afternoon; some clouds may start moving in during the afternoon. High near 70.
Low pressure just to our south will give us rain on Friday. It will depart in time for skies to clear on Saturday, however it will linger not far off the coastline. The flow behind the low will bring in drier, but continued cool weather.
posted: May 19 2005 at 5:26 am
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Mon, 16 May 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 5/21 and Sun 5/22
Sat 5/21: Sunny. High in the low 70s.
Sun 5/22: Partly cloudy. High in the upper 70s.
Right now, a dry and warm pattern is the outlook for the coming weekend. The forecasts haven't been too accurate more than 3 or 4 days in advance, so check back.
posted: May 16 2005 at 7:59 pm
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Sun, 15 May 2005A Weather Pattern Change
While this observation is more about climatology than weather forecasting, I wanted to go on record to note this pattern change. As always, we'll see. :-)
Over the past few weeks, I've noticed some major changes in the weather pattern that's been with us for the past two plus years. As we all know, it's been a very wet year to date. But the storm track seems to have changed over the past two weeks. I'd say we're heading into a dry period for the coming summer-- very different than the past two summers.
posted: May 15 2005 at 6:49 pm
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Weekend Weather Update
Sun 5/15: Partly sunny. There's a chance (about 50%) of a shower or thunderstorm, especially in the afternoon. Timing the showers is impossible. Most of the day will be dry. High near 78.
An indistinct front is passing through this morning, but the issobars are baggy along the front, suggesting the possibility of wave development along the front. Most of the day will be dry, but with this frontal trigger so close by, a scattered shower or thunderstorm can develop.
posted: May 15 2005 at 6:00 am
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Sat, 14 May 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 5/14 and Sun 5/15
Sat 5/14: Partly sunny/partly cloudy. Showers possible by very late afternoon or early evening. Most of the day dry. High 75.
Sun 5/15: Clouds early and showers ending before 8 AM, clouds mix with some sunshine by noon. Instability and the front close by will allow some clouds to mix with the sun in the afternoon. High near 76.
The pattern predicted by the GFS a few days ago seems to be verifying. A cold front moves through tonight with showers, perhaps by early evening. The front clears out in the late morning, allowing some sun from Sunday afternoon on. Upper cyclonic flow with cold air aloft will keep temps lower for the first part of the week. Upper cold air will cause some instability cloudiness, possibly even an isolated shower.
posted: May 14 2005 at 7:01 am
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Fri, 13 May 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 5/14 and Sun 5/15
Sat 5/14: Partly sunny/partly cloudy. Showers possible by very late afternoon or early evening. Most of the day dry. High 75.
Sun 5/15: Clouds early, possibly lingering showers in the morning, then partly sunny by the afternoon. High near 80.
Still trying to pin down the forecast for this weekend. Saturday is looking OK, with a mix of sun and clouds. A front passes through Saturday night, but slows down, allowing a chance of showers into Sunday morning.
posted: May 13 2005 at 6:06 am
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Wed, 11 May 2005Weekend Weather for Sat 5/14 and Sun 5/15
Sat 5/14: Becoming cloudy with showers possible by late afternoon. High 69.
Sun 5/15: Continued cloudy with a chance of showers. High in the upper 60s.
Low pressure shears through a bit to our north on Saturday, but the GFS still shows some light showers for Saturday afternoon. A cold front passes through on Sunday, mid day, with some light showers; showers linger behind the front. No heavy or continuous precipitation showing at this time; just light showers a possibility. Hard to tell if you can dodge the showers for outdoor activities. Saturday looks like the better day right now. I think the weather will be better than currently painted by the models.
posted: May 11 2005 at 5:08 pm
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Tue, 10 May 2005Weekend Weather Update for Sat 5/14 and Sun 5/15
Sat 5/14: Becoming cloudy with showers by afternoon. High 69.
Sun 5/15: Continued cloudy with a chance of showers or rain. High in the upper 60s.
Such great weather mid week, but it's a bummer...the pattern will not last into the weekend. Low pressure is expected to approach us on Saturday, with showers by afternoon. Showers linger through Sunday. That's the outlook now...things will likely change.
posted: May 10 2005 at 6:21 pm
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Sat, 07 May 2005Weekend Weather Update
Tomorrow, we'll be brushed by an upper air disturbance, giving us some clouds mixed in with the sun. This coming week, things are looking warmer, with temps in the 70s!
Sun 5/8: Partly cloudy/partly sunny. High near 70.
Well, we learned something this weekend: The NAM model should continued to be ignored. While the GFS painted a more cloudy and wet picture as well, neither captured the beautiful day that developed. That's what makes this hobby so interesting.
posted: May 07 2005 at 4:58 pm
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Fri, 06 May 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 5/7: Showers ending before 8AM, then just clouds and perhaps some sun in the afternoon. Still a chance of a very brief shower in the afternoon. Breezy. High in the low 60s.
Sun 5/8: Mostly sunny...some clouds. High near 70.
Both the GFS and NAM have any precipitation ending by 8 AM on Saturday, as low pressure just grazes by our area. Then a mix of clouds and perhaps some sun. I guess I ought to correct this weekend's dates. :-)
posted: May 06 2005 at 4:51 pm
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Weekend Weather Update
Sat 5/6: Significant uncertainty in the forecast. Showers very early, the just clouds and some sun in the afternoon. Still a chance of a shower in the afternoon. Breezy. High in the low 60s.
Sun 5/7: Mostly sunny...some clouds. High near 70.
Uncertainty has come back to the forecast for Saturday. Still waiting for the newest model runs. The coastal low is coming very close and it wouldn't take much error to give us precipitation on Saturday. Additionally, a series of upper disturbances further complicates the picture, where cold air aloft will cause cloudiness and even a shower. This is just one of those weekends where the forecast can't be counted on.
posted: May 06 2005 at 10:36 am
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Thu, 05 May 2005Weekend Weather Update
Sat 5/6: A lingering shower possible very early, then cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy/sunny, with some sun breaking through by afternoon, if not before. A bit cool and breezy. High in the low 60s.
Sun 5/7: Partly sunny and cool. High in the mid to upper 60s.
Things clarifying for the weekend. GFS and NAM similar, with cloudy in the early morning on Saturday and then low pressure leaves, keeping us dry.
posted: May 05 2005 at 3:38 pm
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Weekend Weather Update
Sat 5/6: Significant uncertainty in the forecast, from rain to just cloudy conditions in the morning and slow clearing, breezy and cool in the afternoon. Too soon to tell. High in the mid 60s.
Sun 5/7: Another disturbance may give us some clouds, mixed with sun. High 65-70.
Still a highly uncertain forecast for Saturday, because the NAM remains much more pessimistic than the GFS about the effects of a coastal low and upper low that will move up Friday night. Sunday looks cooler now.
posted: May 05 2005 at 5:31 am
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Wed, 04 May 2005Weekend Weather for Sat May 6 & Sun May 7th
Sat 5/6: Significant uncertainty in the forecast, from rain to just cloudy conditions in the morning and slow clearing, breezy and cool in the afternoon. Too soon to tell. High in the 60s.
Sun 5/7: Another disturbance may give us some clouds, mixed with sun. High in the 70s.
From a fantastic forecast for Saturday to a significant uncertainty!....the latest GFS and NAM models have a coastal low moving up, Friday into Saturday. The GFS and NAM are quite different, both in timing and in path of the low. The trend has been for the GFS to be closer to the NAM. The NAM has rain for most the first half of Saturday. The GFS clears us out. This will be interesting: those of you who follow my forecasts know that I prefer the GFS model. Lately, the NAM has been showing some good forecasts with the current seasonal pattern. This will be a good test of the NAM for the upcoming season.
posted: May 04 2005 at 5:40 pm
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Weekend Weather for Sat May 6 & Sun May 7th
Sat 5/6: Chance of showers in the early morning, then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. High near 70
Sun 5/7: Sunny. High in the mid 70s.
Yesterday, the NAM model had a coastal storm heading up toward us on Saturday. The GFS had it well offshore. This morning, the NAM and the GFS are a little more similar, but with the coastal low moving up through Friday night into Saturday morning. Clearly things are evolving; Saturday may not be as nice as previously thought. I'll need to update this situation.
posted: May 04 2005 at 6:17 am
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Tue, 03 May 2005Weekend Weather for Saturday, May 6 & Sunday, May 7th
Sat 5/6: Mostly sunny. High near 70.
Sun 5/7: Sunny. High in the mid 70s.
The upcoming weekend is looking better and better. High pressure will keep a storm well to our south.
posted: May 03 2005 at 6:45 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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