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Miscellaneous
Fri, 30 Nov 2007
Weekend Weather -Difficult driving on Sunday AM- Fri PM update
What a difference a year makes! This time last year, we had incredibly warm temperatures for November and December...it didn't get cold until the third week in December.
For this weekend, a low pressure system will move to the Great Lakes while warm air aloft causes precipitation that will fall mostly as ice pellets (sleet) and freezing rain during the morning on Sunday. Significant icing is likely for areas near Philadelphia and especially north and west of the city. The freezing rain and ice pellets will change to all rain during the afternoon, but it may still be slippery. Very little snow is expected here, with warm air in the upper areas of the atmosphere.
Updated Fri 10 PM:
Latest NAM model continues with sleet and ice pellets through noon on Sunday. Heavier rains during Sunday evening as temperatures rise above freezing.
Sat 12/1: Mostly sunny and cold. Some high cloudiness increases in the afternoon. High 40.
Sun 12/2 : Sleet, ice pellets early, changing to freezing rain by late morning, then rain during the afternoon. Icey conditions expected. High 35. Secondary low pressure during the evening needs to be watched for possible change back to snow.
posted: Nov 30 2007 at 10:17 pm
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Weekend Weather -Difficult driving on Sunday AM- Fri PM update
What a difference a year makes! This time last year, we had incredibly warm temperatures for November and December...it didn't get cold until the third week in December.
For this weekend, a low pressure system will move to the Great Lakes while warm air aloft causes precipitation that will fall mostly as ice pellets (sleet) and freezing rain during the morning on Sunday. Significant icing is likely for areas near Philadelphia and especially north and west of the city. The freezing rain and ice pellets will change to all rain during the afternoon, but it may still be slippery. Very little snow is expected here, with warm air in the upper areas of the atmosphere.
Right now, the models are not predicting high amounts of water falling (QPF values), which can go both ways...a warm, heavy rain can wash away any ice buildup, while light precip may cause the ice to linger.
A secondary low is expected to form along the coast Sunday night and the models have the precip ending by Monday morning. We need to watch this, as secondary lows are difficult to forecast with high precision.
Sat 12/1: Mostly sunny and cold. Some high cloudiness increases in the afternoon. High 40.
Sun 12/2 : Sleet, ice pellets early, changing to freezing rain by late morning, then rain during the afternoon. Icey conditions expected. High 35. Secondary low pressure during the evening needs to be watched for possible change back to snow.
posted: Nov 30 2007 at 5:47 pm
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Thu, 29 Nov 2007Weekend Weather Outlook - Thurs PM
A cold, winter-like pattern is setting up for our area. High pressure will be with us through Saturday and will move off the coast Saturday night. Cold and dry through this period.
On Sunday, a very strong cold front will move through our area, as deep low pressure moves off through the Great Lakes. Showers will move in during the early afternoon on Sunday and heavy rain is expected by by Sunday night. Very cold, January-like weather will be with us on Monday, with brisk winds and temps in the 30s!
Sat 12/1: Mostly sunny and cold. High 44. Some high cloudiness possible late in the afternoon as moisture moves in aloft.
Sun 12/2: Cloudy in the morning then rain develops in the afternoon. There is the chance of some freezing rain or drizzle early in the day, as precip will start before temps warm up at the surface. Quantities will be very light, but enough to cause difficult driving early Sunday, especially north and west. Rain picks up in intensity during the afternoon and evening. Cold. High 40.
posted: Nov 29 2007 at 4:44 pm
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Fri, 23 Nov 2007Weekend Weather - Fri AM
The cold front went through as scheduled, as a brisk, dry northwesterly flow of cold air will be with us through much of Sunday.
There isn't much instability showing, despite the big temperature change, so I don't expect to see much fair weather cloudiness today or Saturday. The low pressure system expected to approach from the south on Sunday is taking its time getting here.
Sat 11/24: Mostly sunny and cold. High 46.
Sun 11/25 : Partly to mostly sunny. High 45
posted: Nov 23 2007 at 11:21 am
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Wed, 21 Nov 2007Week Weather Outlook- Wed PM
The cold front will move through between 3 and 5 PM on Thursday. Windy conditions will preceed and accompany the frontal passage and temperatures will fall off rapidly between 2 PM and 6 PM. Very little in the way of precipitation is expected, as upper air dynamics will work against showers forming. Models show less than 0.05 inches water.
Somewhat below normal temps return for Friday through Sunday. The developing low pressure system in the south will bring some middle level clouds on Sunday
Sat 11/24: Mostly sunny and cold. High 46.
Sun 11/25 : Increasing cloudiness and continued cold. High 45
posted: Nov 21 2007 at 10:09 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Tues
Warm through much of Thursday, when a strong cold front will pass through Thurs late afternoon or night. The GFS continues to have much of the rain showers shear off to our north. Expect for wind, but not much in the way of showers expected here on Thursday.
Seasonably cold (or slightly below normal) temps return for Friday through Sunday. The developing low pressure system in the south appears to be suppressed to our south now.
Sat 11/24: Mostly sunny and cold. High 46.
Sun 11/25 : Increasing cloudiness and continued cold. High 45
posted: Nov 21 2007 at 7:31 am
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Tue, 20 Nov 2007Week Weather Outlook- Tues
A significant warmup through Thursday, as a moist, mild southwesterly flow develops ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Temps will be in the 60s, especially Thurs.
The strong cold front will pass through Thurs late afternoon or night. Originally, we expected very wet weather ahead of the front, but the models have most of the dynamics shearing off to our north.
Seasonably cold (or slightly below normal) temps return for Friday through Sunday. A developing low pressure system will approach from the Gulf states on Sunday. Increasing clouds with rain by afternoon expected at this time.
Sat 11/24: Mostly sunny and cold. High 48.
Sun 11/25 : Becoming cloudy early, then rain in the afternoon. High 50.
posted: Nov 20 2007 at 7:52 am
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Sat, 17 Nov 2007Sunday Forecast- UPDATED Sat PM
The models continue the delayed development of the surface low pressure into Sunday and Monday. A damp, cold easterly flow will bring cloudiness to our area for Sunday through much of Monday. A true November day. The actual amount of rain showers for Sunday looks to be very little, with the majority of precipitation for Sunday night into Monday.
Sun 11/18: Cloudy, damp and chilly. Some light drizzle/showers during the day, but much of the shower activity will wait for the afternoon and evening. High 44.
posted: Nov 17 2007 at 9:46 pm
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Change in Forecast- UPDATED Sat AM
There's a change in the forecast for this weekend. Last night the NAM suggested a later frontal passage for today and the trend has been picked up by the GFS, which shows low pressure development from an Alberta clipper type system tonight into Sunday. The coastal development will cause showers to linger through Sunday.
Sat 11/17: Considerable cloudiness with some sunny breaks possible mid-day. High 50.
Sun 11/18: Cloudy with showers likely much of the day. High 47.
posted: Nov 17 2007 at 8:31 am
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Thu, 15 Nov 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- UPDATED Thurs PM
The cold front moved through this afternoon, and cold, drier air will move in tonight through early Saturday. p>
posted: Nov 15 2007 at 5:31 pm
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Wed, 14 Nov 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
A strong cold front is approaching from the west this evening, as low pressure is developing right over Delaware and SE PA this evening. Strong winds and heavy showers are possible later tonight and much of Thursday as the front moves through.
Cold air moves in for Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures moderate slightly Saturday, but another weaker front will move through Saturday evening. Skies clear again for Sunday.
Sat 11/17: Sunny and cold early, then clouds move in during the afternoon. High 47.
Sun 11/18: Mostly sunny and continued cold. High 47.
posted: Nov 14 2007 at 8:59 pm
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Tue, 13 Nov 2007Week Weather Outlook- Tues
The fronts passed through today, but mild temperatures will be with us through Wednesday.
On Thursday, a strong cold front will pass through with rain showers, windy conditions and colder temperatures moving in Thursday night into Friday.
The weekend currently looks dry with sun, especially Sunday. Saturday will be breezy and cold to start. Temperatures may moderate a bit Saturday afternoon before another weak cold front passes through on Saturday night.
Thanksgiving week continues to look interesting, weatherwise: The GFS continues to advertise the development of a deep storm along the coast. Originally, it was forecast to form Tuesday, but the latest model run has a stormy Thanksgiving day, with possible snow Thursday evening. This scenario is over a week away, so specifics can't be relied upon. Nonetheless, a stormy period for Thanksgiving week and the following week is suggested by the long range GFS model.
posted: Nov 13 2007 at 5:54 pm
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Mon, 12 Nov 2007Week Weather Outlook- Mon
The weather will be somewhat uneventful until Thursday, as weak frontal boundaries will be passing through tonight into Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal, with temps approaching the 60s.
On Thursday, a strong cold front will pass through with rain showers, windy conditions and colder temperatures moving in Thursday night into Friday.
The weekend currently looks dry with sun, especially Sunday. Saturday will be breezy and cold to start. Temperatures moderate on Sunday.
Into next week, the GFS is showing a deep low to affect us late next Monday into Tuesday. Too far off to be sure.
posted: Nov 12 2007 at 8:47 pm
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Fri, 09 Nov 2007Weekend Forecast Fri PM
No real change in the forecast, with the NAM joining the GFS in having some light precipitation continuing into Saturday morning. Cloudy and windy conditions Saturday afternoon.
The precipitation type (rain vs snow) situation hasn't changed, with light mix of snow mixed with rain only expected in northern and western suburbs, as temperatures aren't supposed to fall below 35 in the immediate Philadelphia area. This doesn't preclude some snow flakes mixed in late tonight.
Sat 11/10: Cloudy, windy with light scattered showers lingering into the early afternoon. Continued broken low clouds and windy in the afternoon. Some clearing possible very late. High 47
Sun 11/11: Mostly sunny and milder in the afternoon after a cold morning. Breezy. High 52
posted: Nov 09 2007 at 9:36 pm
[/weather/nov07] permanent link
Thu, 08 Nov 2007Weekend Forecast
The models are still predicting a coastal low affecting our area Friday evening into Saturday. The NAM has precip ending early on Saturday while the GFS has light showers possible with clouds through early Saturday afternoon. It's not a certainty that we'll see any sun Saturday.
Both models have low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s for Philadelphia, but it's possible that northern and western suburbs may see some flakes of snow Friday night. Except for the surface temperatures, the upper air temperatures support snow. Should the surface temperatures be lower than expected, we might see a precipitation mix in some parts near Philadelphia.
Sat 11/10: Cloudy, windy with light scattered showers lingering into the early afternoon. Continued mostly cloudy, possibly some breaks late in the afternoon. High 47
Sun 11/11: Mostly sunny and milder in the afternoon after a cold morning. Breezy. High 54
posted: Nov 08 2007 at 10:18 pm
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Rain mixed with Snow for Fri eve?- Thurs AM Update
As mentioned earlier this week, a coastal low is expected to develop Friday evening and move up along the coastline to our east. The models have been consistent in showing some throwback moisture into our area Friday evening into Saturday morning as the upper low spawns the coast surface low. Thickness levels support snow formation, but surface temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s, preventing any accumulation. So rain mixed with snow flakes is possible late Friday eve.
We'll have to keep an eye on this storm. Wouldn't expect anything like a winter storm in early November (with ocean water temperatures too warm to allow accumulation), but it will be interesting to see what happens.
Cold and windy for Saturday as the low departs; moderating temps expected later Sunday afternoon.
posted: Nov 08 2007 at 10:35 am
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Mon, 05 Nov 2007Week Weather Outlook- Monday
A brief visit from old friend winter for the next few days, as a strong cold front moves through on Tuesday. Cold air moves in Tuesday night into Friday, with windy brisk conditions.
The latest GFS is predicting this pattern to last into Saturday. (A coastal low moves up, east of us on Friday night, probably missing us.) Saturday looks cold and dry, unless the coastal low takes a westerly track.
Above normal temperatures return for later Sunday into early next week.
posted: Nov 05 2007 at 4:53 pm
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Sat, 03 Nov 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
The models did a good job at predicting the path of Noel. The cloud shield will be over us through much of the day, with the GFS having sun breaking out about 4 PM. Windy conditions expected for much of the mid day hours.
A front will move through later on Sunday. Colder temps will follow.
A strong cold front will pass through later on Tuesday, giving us our first taste of wintery temps. There may be even be a snow flurry! Another wintery scenario for Friday, as the GFS predicts the possibility of a coastal low.
Sat 11/3: Noel's cloud shield will lift away about 4-5 PM. Windy conditions before then. Temps in the mid 50s.
Sun 11/4: Sunny and mild in the morning and mid day, some cloudiness later in the afternoon as a cold front moves through High near 60.
posted: Nov 03 2007 at 9:03 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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