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Miscellaneous
Mon, 31 Aug 2009
Solar Climate Forecast for 2009-2010
The visible sun remains spotless. We are on the verge of breaking the record of the previous spotless day stretch in 2008. As a result, solar activity remains very quiet and solar flux remains very low.
Due to this anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle, we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the fall and the winter. While we will certainly see some typical warm weather stretches, continue to expect a cooler than normal fall on average.
This cool/cold pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. I believe it's possible that we will have a record cold winter this year.
posted: Aug 31 2009 at 7:58 pm
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Sat, 29 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat AM
Tropical storm/depression Danny is rapidly moving NNE and should pull the precip shield away with it during this morning. Light showers and even a thunderstorm is still possible through the afternoon as a frontal boundary moves through from the west. Nice day for Sunday.
Sat 8/29: Rain tapering to intermittent showers later this morning. Cloudy with occasional brighter skies possible mid day. Chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. Humid. High 79.
Sun 8/30: Sunny, less humid and warm. High 85.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 29 2009 at 9:06 am
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Thu, 27 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Thurs PM
The NOGAPS continues to bring tropical storm Danny closer to the NJ coastline, according to the latest NOGAPS model run. The GFS model is now similar in path with the NOGAPS, but doesn't develop the storm as much. The NOGAPS brings the storm to near minimal hurricane strength. I always lean towards the NOGAPS model for tropical storms. The expected storm's size probably will not be large enough to impact Philadelphia in any significant way, except for some rain on Saturday. The peak storm seems to be about noon on Saturday and will quickly move on towards NY and LI. Stay tuned. A cold front moves through on Sunday, with showers possible again.
Whenever there is a tropical system in the picture, confidence is a lower than normal for forecast specifics.
Sat 8/29: (Tentative: likely to change based on final path of Danny.) Cloudy with rain likely, moreso east of PHL. Humid. High 79 A very different scenario expected at the NJ shore, where heavy rain, wind and surf is expected.
Sun 8/30: Mostly cloudy, some sunny breaks, with a chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon. High 80
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 27 2009 at 12:24 pm
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Wed, 26 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Wed PM
There continues to be changes with the forecast for Saturday, as the path of tropical storm Danny remains uncertain. The latest NOGAPS has moved the storm westward again, affecting the Jersey shore with heavy rains and winds. The expected storm's size may not be large enough to impact Philadelphia. The peak storm seems to be early afternoon on Saturday. Stay tuned.
Whenever there is a tropical system in the picture, confidence is a lower than normal for the forecast specifics.
Sat 8/29: (Tentative: likely to change based on final path of Danny.) Cloudy with some sunny breaks, showers likely. Humid. High 80 A very different scenario expected at the NJ shore.
Sun 8/30: Mostly cloudy, some sunny breaks, with a chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon. High 80
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 26 2009 at 7:45 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Wed AM
The latest model runs have moved the developing tropical system a bit further to the east, keeping its effects away from Philadelphia and only indirectly affecting the shore. The scenario is similar to that of hurricane Bill of last week. Our area will be sandwiched between an approaching cold front and the subsidence area around the tropical system, so we'll have clouds but some sun also possible. The approaching cold front will bring showers later on Sunday.
Whenever there is a tropical system in the picture, confidence is a lower than normal for the forecast specifics.
Sat 8/29: Tentative: A mix of clouds and sun. Some showers possible late afternoon. Humid. High 80
Sun 8/30: Mostly cloudy, some sunny breaks, with a chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon. High 80
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 26 2009 at 6:31 am
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Tue, 25 Aug 2009Tropical Update
The Navy NOGAPS model continues to forecast a hurricane to develop and move up the NJ coastline this Saturday. The main hurricane models are not on-board with this scenario, keeping the storm out to sea.
Over the years, the NOGAPS has been my preferred/favorite tropical model. That said, I haven't heard much about this from the NWS, so the NOGAPS in an outlier. But we need to keep an eye on this.
posted: Aug 25 2009 at 8:08 pm
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Mon, 24 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Mon PM
An interesting weekend coming up weatherwise, as the NOGAPS model is consistently showing the development of a hurricane that may approach NC/VA coastline and move up near NJ coastline on Saturday.
Whenever there is a tropical system in the picture, all bets are off on the specifics of the forecast. This is true for the coming weekend. Stay tuned.
Sat 8/29: Tentative: unsettled, warm and humid.
Sun 8/30: Clearing.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 24 2009 at 8:17 pm
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Sat, 22 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat AM
Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes will rotate a front through our area tonight into Sunday. The models have tropical storm Bill becoming extra-tropical far east of us and merging with the frontal boundary, producing rain for us on Saturday into Sunday. The GFS has things clearing out late Sunday morning, while the NAM has rain all the way through Sunday afternoon.
Sun 8/22: Cloudy (some bright spots possible mid day) with showers/thunderstorms during much of the day. Humid. High 81.
Sun 8/23: Cloudy with some showers remaining in the morning, then partial clearing during the afternoon, according to the GFS. The NAM continues with showers in the afternoon. Hi 84.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 22 2009 at 7:39 am
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Weather Update
The latest model runs have rain and thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon. The NAM has it quite wet for us.
posted: Aug 22 2009 at 12:37 am
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Fri, 21 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Fri PM
Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes will rotate a front through our area tonight into Saturday. The models have tropical storm Bill becoming extra-tropical far east of us and merging with the frontal boundary, producing rain for us on Saturday. Things clear out for Sunday.
The models often have problems with the interaction of a tropical and and non-tropical systems, so while the GFS has been consistent with the rain for Saturday, confidence is lower than normal for this forecast.
Sun 8/22: Cloudy (some bright spots mid day) with showers/thunderstorms during much of the day, ending late afternoon. Humid. High 82.
Sun 8/23: Mostly sunny and warm. High 86.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 21 2009 at 3:04 pm
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Thu, 20 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Thurs AM
Today's models have Hurricane Bill remaining offshore and interacting with the the cold front that moves through on Friday night. The latest NAM and GFS has showers through much of Saturday. With a tropical storm nearby, my confidence in the Saturday forecast is lower than usual.
Sun 8/22: Cloudy (some bright spots mid day) with showers/thunderstorms during much of the day, ending later afternoon. High 84.
Sun 8/23: Sunny and warm. High 84.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 20 2009 at 8:19 am
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Wed, 19 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Wed PM
Today's models have Hurricane Bill remaining offshore and interacting with the the cold front that moves through on Friday night. The current GFS has showers into Saturday morning and then slow clearing Saturday afternoon. With a tropical storm nearby, my confidence in the Saturday forecast is lower than usual.
Sun 8/22: Tentative: Cloudy with showers/thunderstorms in the morning, clearing during the afternoon. High 86.
Sun 8/23: Tentative: Sunny and warm. High 84.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 19 2009 at 7:53 pm
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Tue, 18 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Tues AM
Somewhat uncertain and poorly defined weekend forecast, because tropical storm Bill may be near us, as well as an approaching cool front. A humid and unsettled forecast for both days, particularly Saturday. Updates as things clarify.
Sun 8/22: Tentative: partly sunny, partly cloudy, warm and humid; some showers possible during the afternoon. High 87.
Sun 8/23: Tentative: partly mostly sunny, less humid. High 86.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Aug 18 2009 at 8:52 am
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Fri, 14 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
A dry hot and humid weekend on tap for us. (Updating this remotely from a distant beach. There won't be many updates this weekend. )
posted: Aug 14 2009 at 4:03 pm
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Sun, 09 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sun AM
I used Tweeter to update some forecast changes earlier this morning. Follow me as theweatherguy for this these last minute changes. Here's the current scoop:
The forecast is looking quite different today. Not surprised, since the models often get warm front-related forecasts wrong. I've been saying this since Thursday.
The front lingers over us at this time. An upper air NW flow is bringing areas of disturbance (areas of vorticity) along the frontal boundary, setting off shower and thunderstorms. Both models had this wrong and both models differ with forecast details for today. The GFS has us clearing out while the NAM continues to have showers and thunderstorms develop during the day and afternoon. The GFS MOS has a 23% chance of rain during the day, the NAM MOS has a 70% chance. It's not certain if we'll see sun this afternoon or not. More likely, we'll see some bright skies breaks of sun and but with it, the development of instability and more thunderstorms.
Sun 8/9: Mostly cloudy with continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. There likely will be a few bright spots and possibly sunny breaks during the afternoon, but any sunshine will increase instability and result in more thunderstorms. Humid. High 85.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Aug 09 2009 at 9:23 am
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Sat, 08 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat PM
Showers moved in before the models had predicted any. As I always say, the models have trouble with warm frontal features.
A warm front is moving north through our area as upper disturbances set off light showers this evening and tonight. Following the warm front passage, very warm and humid weather moves in. In fact, the GFS and NAM are showing high temps now in the upper mid and upper 90s for Monday and Tuesday.
Sun 8/9: A possible lingering shower early morning then mostly sunny, occasional clouds. Becoming hot and more humid. High near 90. Most of the day dry, but chance of a late afternoon scattered thunderstorm.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Aug 08 2009 at 9:40 pm
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Forecast Update- Sat AM
Latest models have it clear and dry today, Saturday. Warm front moves in late tonight. GFS has showers before daybreak, Sunday. NAM has showers/thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon.
posted: Aug 08 2009 at 10:56 am
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Fri, 07 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri PM
The model trend has been for the expected warm front to have less and less effect on Saturday, as high pressure will keep things nice through Saturday. The GFS now hints that the very warm, humid air will return on Sunday, with a light shower possible early Sunday and a chance of more showers later on Sunday. Most of the weekend will be dry.
As mentioned over the past several days, warm front freatures are notoriously difficult to forecast, so the above scenario may change yet again. My confidence in a totally dry Saturday is not that high.
Sat 8/8: Partly to mostly sunny and warm. High 86.
Sun 8/9: A mix of clouds and sun. A passing sprinkle early morning possible and scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late afternoon. Most of the day dry. Becoming hotter and more humid. High near 90.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Aug 07 2009 at 3:25 pm
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Thu, 06 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Thur PM
The cool front has moved through and drier, cooler air should be with us for Friday. The trend in the models over the past 24 hours has moved the activity of the warm front to our north on Saturday. As a result, there is less likelihood of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. While a passing shower cannot be ruled out, most of the day will be a mix of clouds and some sun, as the front moves north of us.
Warm front freatures are notoriously difficult to forecast, so the above scenario may change again.
Sat 8/8: A mixture of clouds and some sunny breaks. Chance of a shower or thundershower, especially areas far north of Philadelphia. High 84.
Sun 8/9: Partly to mostly sunny very warm and humid. High 88.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Aug 06 2009 at 9:04 pm
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Wed, 05 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Wed PM
The latest GFS model has a cool front moving through late Thursday with showers and thunderstorms. This frontal boundary stalls to our south and returns as a warm front on Saturday through Sat night. The GFS has a disturbance moving along the front, giving us showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, starting late morning. The front moves through and partial clearing expected on Sunday.
Warm front freatures are notoriously difficult to forecast, so the above specifics may change.
Sat 8/8: tentative: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms by late morning. High 82.
Sun 8/9: tentative: Partly to mostly sunny very warm and humid. High 88.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Aug 05 2009 at 6:57 pm
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Mon, 03 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Mon PM
Looking at the medium range GFS, the coming weekend will be very hot and humid. Temps in the 90s. it took us til August to get some real summer.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Aug 03 2009 at 10:46 pm
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Sun, 02 Aug 2009Weather Update
The models underestimated the intensity of the showers and thunderstorms this morning. (the instability parameters weren't as impressive as to explain the actual storms we saw) We'll see some breaks of sun and bright spots this afternoon. Still more thunderstorms are possible, especially late afternoon or early evening as another frontal boundary approaches and moves through.
posted: Aug 02 2009 at 1:08 pm
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Just updated via Twitter
Showers and thunderstorms on the way! Follow me as "theweatherguy" on Twitter.
posted: Aug 02 2009 at 9:13 am
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Sat, 01 Aug 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat PM
The frontal boundary that pushed through Friday will return tonight as a warm front. Cloudiness and some showers are likely Sunday morning as the front moves north. Breaks of sun possible Sunday afternoon, but the humid, unstable airmass could result in some thunderstorms.
Sun 8/2: Cloudy with showers possible in the morning, then mostly cloudy with breaks of sun, very humid and warm. Chance of late afternoon scattered thunderstorms. High 85.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 08-01-09: The visible sun is still spotless. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Despite this current patch of typical summer weather, continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Aug 01 2009 at 6:33 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat AM
Following today's showery and possible stormy weather, things clear out for Saturday, as a drier northwesterly flow moves in. Another disturbance in the surface southwesterly flow will interact with the upper cyclonic flow on Sunday, giving us clouds and showers likely in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as noon, but more likely later in the afternoon on Sunday.
Sat 8/1: Sunny, some fair weather clouds in the afternoon. High 88.
Sun 8/2: Early sun, then mostly cloudy, some bright spots possible. Showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon High 85.
Solar- Climate Comment- Updated 08-01-09: The visible sun is again spotless. There is a bit of increased solar activity rotating into earth view. Solar activity remains relatively quiet and solar flux remains low, at 68. We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the summer, as solar flux and total solar irradiance are at extreme lows due to an anomalous nadir in the the sunspot cycle. Continue to expect a cooler than normal summer on average and this pattern will likely extend well into the fall and winter. We may have a record cold fall and winter this year.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for quick updates and weather observations.
posted: Aug 01 2009 at 8:09 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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