theweatherguy's website
Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
About this blog
theweatherguy's website,
"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."
aka "theweatherguy"
Copy link for RSS feed
These are a few of my favorite links. Meteorology Glossary
Weather Archives:
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
12: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
11: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
10: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
09: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
07: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
06: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Commentary:
Miscellaneous
Thu, 31 Jul 2008
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Thur PM
Sun 8/3: Sunny, and very warm. High 88.
Today's GFS and NAM models continue with having a low and frontal system bring showers to our area on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely, especially Saturday afternoon, (although the GFS has showers as early as the morning.) Things clear out for Sunday.
Sat 8/2: Considerable cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms during the day. Exact timing uncertain, but early afternoon a possibility. High 86.
posted: Jul 31 2008 at 6:26 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Wed, 30 Jul 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Sun 8/3: Sunny, warm and humid. High 85.
Bermuda high pressure will maintain a hot, humid flow over our area this weekend, but the latest GFS model has a disturbance and frontal system moving through on Saturday, bringing showers and thunderstorms during the day on Saturday. This is the first appearance of this feature (which previously was going to shear off to our north) so things may change again.
Sat 8/2: Considerable cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms during the day. Exact timing uncertain, but early afternoon a possibility. High 87
posted: Jul 30 2008 at 7:32 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Tue, 29 Jul 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues
Sun 8/3: Sunny, very hot and very humid. High 95.
Bermuda high pressure will maintain a hot, humid flow over our area this weekend, as disturbances pass well to our north.
Sat 8/2: Sunny hot and humid. High 92.
posted: Jul 29 2008 at 8:00 am
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Sun, 27 Jul 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Sun AM Update
Last night's GFS and NAM models agree that while we'll have some breaks of sun, they continue to predict about >0.30 inches of rain for today, both morning and afternoon. Nothing on radar at this time, but it's hard to ignore the model consensus.
Sun 7/27: Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible .... showers possible both morning and afternoon. Humid. High 84-87
posted: Jul 27 2008 at 8:48 am
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Sat, 26 Jul 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Sat PM
The upper trough in our area will rotate a disturbance on Sunday. Both the NAM and GFS have showers during the day on Sunday, both with about 0.30 inches QPF (water falling as precipitation).
Sun 7/27: Mostly cloudy with showers both morning and afternoon. Humid. High 84
posted: Jul 26 2008 at 7:55 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Sat AM
Sun 7/27: Considerable cloudiness with occasional breaks of sun possible. A chance of a shower anytime during the day, more likely in the afternoon. High 86.
The upper trough in our area will rotate a disturbance through over the weekend. The latest GFS model has more precipitation for Sunday.
Timing the speed and location of these upper level disturbances in advance is difficult and things often change.
Sat 7/26: Partly sunny, very warm. Some increase in clouds very late in the afternoon. High 88-90.
posted: Jul 26 2008 at 8:40 am
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Fri, 25 Jul 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Fri PM
Sun 7/27: Chance of a brief morning shower, then considerable cloudiness but breaks of sun. Showers likely in the later afternoon. High 86.
The upper trough in our area will rotate a disturbance through over the weekend. The timing has changed, and the GFS model has showers now on Sunday afternoon, while the NAM has more showers in the morning on Sunday.
Timing the speed and location of these upper level disturbances in advance is difficult and things often change.
Sat 7/26: Partly sunny, very warm. High 88-91.
posted: Jul 25 2008 at 8:53 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Thu, 24 Jul 2008Philadelphia Weather Weekend Weather- Thurs
Sun 7/27: Partly sunny. Humid. High 89
An upper level trough has moved into our area and the models have this trough pattern hanging in through much of next week. An upper trough (cold air aloft) and associated areas of vorticity (spin) rotating through will result in changeable weather, with showers possible as each disturbance rotates through.
Timing the speed and location of these upper level disturbances in advance is difficult and things often change.
So expect some changes in the forecast for the weekend.
Sat 7/26: Sunny in the morning, considerable cloudiness in the afternoon. Chance of showers late, especially northern areas. High 90.
posted: Jul 24 2008 at 7:37 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Wed, 23 Jul 2008HEAVY RAINS- Wed PM
Sun 7/27: Tentative forecast -Mostly sunny.
Differences with the GFS vs NAM models, but all runs of the NAM today continued to show HEAVY rains through Thursday morning. (The GFS moves the precip out sooner than the NAM.) The NAM continues to pump out 3+ inches of rain for Wednesday through Thursday morning, with the heaviest rains after midnight tonight. I haven't seen numbers like this on the NAM FOUS data for several years. The axis of heavy rain has shifted to our west and NJ briefly at 9:30 PM, but expect it return to the PHL area later tonight.
The upper trough and very moist flow will continue to cause instability and thunderstorms through tonight and Thursday morning.
Instability from the upper trough will possibly cause showers this Saturday. Things clear our for Sunday.
Sat 7/26: Tentative forecast- Partly cloudy with showers.
posted: Jul 23 2008 at 9:26 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
HEAVY RAINS- Wed AM
Sun 7/27: Tentative forecast -Mostly sunny.
The latest NAM pumps out over 4 inches of rain for Wednesday night! I haven't seen numbers like this on the NAM FOUS data for years. We gotta watch this!
An upper trough will cause unstability along with a surface low over our area Wednesday into Thursday. Flooding conditions may develop Wednesday night in some areas.
Instability from the upper trough will possibly cause showers this Saturday. Things clear our for Sunday.
Sat 7/26: Tentative forecast- Partly cloudy with showers.
posted: Jul 23 2008 at 6:58 am
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Tue, 22 Jul 2008Philly Weather Outlook- Tues AM
Sun 7/27: Tentative forecast -Mostly sunny.
An upper trough will cause unstability along with a surface low over our area Wednesday into Thursday. The latest NAM has over 3 inches of rain falling later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Flooding conditions may develop Wednesday night in some areas.
Instability from the upper trough will possibly cause showers this Saturday. Things clear our for Sunday.
Sat 7/26: Tentative forecast- Partly cloudy with showers.
posted: Jul 22 2008 at 9:25 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Sun, 20 Jul 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Sunday
The coastal tropical low that has developed along the NC coastline is expected to be caught up in the non-tropical weak upper trough, which will bring the low inland and towards New England. The models often have trouble with these scenarios, so my confidence in the forecast is lower than usual today.
Moisture has significantly increased this morning, and dewpoints are in the uncomfortable 70s. Currently, the NAM model has no rain here during the day, with showers waiting until later this evening. Again, with the tropical disturbance in our neighborhood, expect lower certainty with the forecast over the next day or so.
Sun 7/20: Sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. It will feel hotter than Saturday. Some cloudiness around evening. High 94. Showers possible tonight, especially north of Philadelphia.
posted: Jul 20 2008 at 7:41 am
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Sat, 19 Jul 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Sat PM
The models overpredicted the humidity today, so while the temps got into the mid 90s, the heat index wasn't as high as anticipated.
The coastal development of the tropical storm off of the NC coast, predicted by the models, probably was responsible for the lower dewpoints in our area today
The GFS and NAM models still move dewpoints into the high 60s and low 70s later tonight and Sunday, so discomfort levels will probably be much greater on Sunday than today.
Sun 7/20: Sunny in the morning becoming hazy, hot and humid. Broken clouds during the afternoon with a shower or thunderstorm likely early evening. High 93.
posted: Jul 19 2008 at 5:57 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Sat AM
Sun 7/20: Sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Increasing clouds late afternoon with a shower or thunderstorm possible early evening. High 91.
Heat and humidity will continue this weekend with temps in the 90s and dewpoints in the high 60s.
Coastal development of a weak low off the NC coastline will bring more more moisture and clouds to the area on Sunday, as a low pressure system shears off to our north. Instablility will likely result in showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon on Sunday.
Sat 7/19: Sunny, hazy, hot and humid. High 94.
posted: Jul 19 2008 at 9:01 am
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Fri, 18 Jul 2008Philly Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Sun 7/20: A mix of clouds and sun, hot and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the later afternoon. High 89-91.
Heat and humidity will continue this weekend with temps in the 90s and dewpoints in the high 60s.
Coastal development of a weak low off the NC coastline will bring more more moisture and clouds to the area on Sunday, as a low pressure system shears off to our north. Instablility will likely result in showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon on Sunday.
Sat 7/19: Sunny, hazy, hot and humid. High 93-96.
posted: Jul 18 2008 at 9:19 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Thu, 17 Jul 2008Philly Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs PM
Sun 7/20: A mix of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially in the afternoon. Timing of showers to be determined. High 89.
Heat and humidity will be with us this weekend, starting Friday with temps in above the mid 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70.
Coastal development of a weak low off the NC coastline will bring more more moisture and clouds to the area on Sunday, as a low pressure system shears off to our north. Instablility will likely result in showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon on Sunday.
Sat 7/19: Sunny, hot and humid. High 96-98.
posted: Jul 17 2008 at 6:34 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Mon, 14 Jul 2008Week Weather Outlook- Monday PM
A non-distinct summer pattern with a southwesterly very warm and humid flow will establish itself this week. Temps in the low 90s with dewpoints just under 70 will provide typical Philadelphia summer weather for much of the week and the weekend. The GFS is suggesting some shower activity on Sunday afternoon, but just the ususal scattered thunderstorms at this time as a tropical-like disturbance develops along the coast. More details later in the week.
Weekend outlook- Sunny, hazy hot and humid. Temps lower 90s.
posted: Jul 14 2008 at 9:28 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Fri, 11 Jul 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Fri PM
Sun 7/13: Mostly sunny early, then partly sunny for most of the day with clouds increasing late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms late evening, lingering into Monday morning. Warm and humid. High 87.
High pressure will move off the coast, allowing warm, humid air to move in Saturday. A cold front will move through late Sunday (now expected Sunday night) with thunderstorms and showers. Timing may change, as the hurricane in the Atlantic sometimes plays havoc with the models.
Sat 7/12: Sunny very warm and humid. High 89.
posted: Jul 11 2008 at 7:44 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Thu, 10 Jul 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
Sun 7/13: Partly sunny early, then increasing clouds during the mid afternoon with showers and thunderstorms likely late afternoon. Warm and humid. High 87.
High pressure off the coast will pump warmer and more humid air back into our area on Saturday. A low pressure system north of the Great Lakes with its attendant cold front will pass through our area late Sunday. The latest GFS has showers and thunderstorms moving through late Sunday afternoon. Exact timing to be determined. (The first hurricane of the season will be out in the Atlantic; this sometimes messes up the models....we'll see if that's the case here.)
Sat 7/12: Sunny very warm and humid. High 90
posted: Jul 10 2008 at 9:58 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Tue, 08 Jul 2008Week Weather Outlook- Tues AM
Sun 7/13: Partly sunny warm and humid. High 90.
The upper low that's been causing the instability (and scattered thunderstorms) over the past several days will be dissipating over the next few days as a cool front approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with the frontal passage Wednesday evening.
Typical summer weather for the weekend, with temps near 90 and the basic 30% chance of thunderstorms.
Sat 7/12: Sunny very warm and humid. High 90
posted: Jul 08 2008 at 8:01 am
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Fri, 04 Jul 2008On Vacation First Week in July
Don't want to disappoint my regular visitors, but I'm on vacation this first week in July- weather forecasts to resume the week of July 6th. Have a Happy and safe Fourth of July!
posted: Jul 04 2008 at 9:23 pm
[/weather/jul08] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.