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Fri, 29 Feb 2008
Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM Update
Precipitation is on our doorstep at 8 PM, with snow to the north and sleet/rain to the south of the city. Temps are hovering just above freezing and the models continue to push temps a few degrees higher during the night. About 0.22 inches water expected to fall. Not much if any real accumulation in the city and up to 3 inches to the north and west of Philadelphia.
The first day of March, Saturday, lives up to it's reputation. Windy conditions expected on Saturday.
Sat 3/1: Cloudy in the morning with lingering shower early, then, a mix of clouds and sun by 10-11AM. WINDY. High 40.
Sun 3/2: Sunny and seasonable. High 45.
posted: Feb 29 2008 at 8:24 pm
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Thu, 28 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Forecast -Thurs Afternoon Update
Another low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes on Friday afternoon, with am associated upper disturbance giving us precipitation Friday afternoon and evening. Latest models have between 0.25 and 0.35 water falling as either rain or snow Friday evening and night. The models have temps warming during the night.
Uncertainty about surface temperatures may result in some light accumulation in center city. Areas to the north and west may get as much as 2-3 inches of snow.
The first day of March, Saturday, lives up to it's reputation. High winds expected on Saturday.
Sat 3/1: Cloudy in the morning with snow showers possible, a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. WINDY and cold. High 37
Sun 3/2: Sunny and seasonable. High 42.
posted: Feb 28 2008 at 5:12 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast -Thurs AM Update
Another low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes on Friday afternoon, with am associated upper disturbance giving us precipitation Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s so mostly rain is expected, but upper atmosphere temperatures will be cold enough to allow some snow to mix in. No accumulation expected in center city, but areas to the north and west of Philadelphia may have an inch, maybe two, of accumulation.
There is uncertainty as to whether low presure develops off of the coast on Saturday, giving us snow flurries or snow showers. Uncertain forecast for Saturday.
The first day of March, Saturday, lives up to it's reputation. High winds expected on Saturday.
Sat 3/1: Cloudy in the morning, a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. WINDY and cold. Snow showers possible. Uncertainty about this forecast. High 37
Sun 3/2: Sunny and seasonable. High 42.
For next week, computer models are suggesting a big storm for Wednesday, with very heavy rains expected.
posted: Feb 28 2008 at 10:14 am
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Wed, 27 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Another low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes on Friday afternoon, with am associated upper disturbance giving us precipitation Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s so mostly rain is expected, but upper atmosphere temperatures will be cold enough to allow some snow to mix in. No accumulation expected.
Things clear out for the weekend, but windy, chilly conditions (hey, it's March) for Saturday expected. Temperatures moderate for Sunday.
For next week, computer models are suggesting a big storm for Wednesday, with very heavy rains expected.
posted: Feb 27 2008 at 7:59 pm
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Tue, 26 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues
Deep low pressure will affect us today, Tuesday, bringing rain that may be heavy at times later in the day.
Cold high pressure builds in for Wed through Friday with temperatures below normal.
A clipper disturbance in the northwest flow may bring light snow to our area on Friday afternoon and evening.
Things clear out for the early part of the weekend, with just some clouds later Sunday.
Computer models are suggesting a big storm early next week, either Tues or Wednesday. A chance of heavy snow possible with this.
posted: Feb 26 2008 at 7:17 am
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Fri, 22 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Diffences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS keeps us dry by later this evening while the NAM has some light flurries or shower possible during the day Saturday. Things clear out on Sunday.
Sat 2/23: Cloudy, chance of a scattered light shower. High 42
Sun 2/24 Sunny and seasonable. High 42.
posted: Feb 22 2008 at 4:06 pm
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Winter Weather Update- Fri AM
Last night's NAM model did better than the GFS. We have about 2-3 inches of snow this morning and another inch or so is likely before a changeover to sleet about 10-11 AM as warmer air aloft comes in.
Sleet should mix with rain by early afternoon. The big question still is surface temperatures. The NAM suggests that freezing conditions (that I thought last night would not be an issue later) will continue through the afternoon and may continue into the evening and night, so we may still get freezing rain instead of rain.
Total accumulation will be 3-4 inches of snow/slush and ice in Philadelphia by evening and more in northern and western suburbs.
Next model runs available later this morning.
posted: Feb 22 2008 at 7:11 am
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Thu, 21 Feb 2008Winter Weather- Less Snow/Ice, Warmer temps- Thurs Evening Update [2]
New GFS model available:
Less precipitation tonight and higher temps tomorrow. Amounts from the GFS have about 1 inch of snow tonight, perhaps another inch of sleet/snow, then a changeover to rain.
Earlier Discussion:
New NAM model available. Here are the trends:
Temperatures are warmer and precipitation amounts are less. Radar shows snow advancing to our area and will reach us after midnight.
Snow will begin tonight, but amounts by daybreak will be about 1-2 inches. An additional inch will fall before 10 AM, when a changeover to sleet will occur. It now appears that the precipitation will be rain by 1 PM.
With the rapid increase in temperatures this evening, (it's 29 degrees now, it was 26 earlier this evening) concern about freezing rain in the afternoon has been lessened.
Latest model suggests that light snow may be back with us on Saturday.
posted: Feb 21 2008 at 10:51 pm
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Winter Weather - Thurs Evening Update
New NAM model available. Here are the trends:
Temperatures are warmer and precipitation amounts are less. Radar shows snow advancing to our area and will reach us after midnight.
Snow will begin tonight, but amounts by daybreak will be about 1-2 inches. An additional inch will fall before 10 AM, when a changeover to sleet will occur. It now appears that the precipitation will be rain by 1 PM.
With the rapid increase in temperatures this evening, (it's 29 degrees now, it was 26 earlier this evening) concern about freezing rain in the afternoon has been lessened.
Latest model suggests that light snow may be back with us on Saturday.
posted: Feb 21 2008 at 9:40 pm
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Snow to Sleet on Friday- Thurs Early PM Update
New Model Data available this morning:
Latest Trends: Precipitation heavier earlier and temperatures in upper atmosphere warm faster. Temperatures at the ground remain at freezing for much of early afternoon.
Snow will start after midnight and there will be between 2-3 inches on the ground by 7AM Friday. Temperatures aloft rise by 10 AM, changing the snow to sleet, but temperatures at the surface remain below freezing. Snow changes to sleet about 10 AM. Sleet changes over to freezing rain during the early afternoon.
Total accumulation may only be 2-4 inches of snow/slush and ice in Philadelphia by mid afternoon and 4-7" or more in the far northern and western suburbs. Difficult driving through the morning hours.
The big question will be whether ground temperatures rise. Often the models are faster with ground temps warming than is really the case. So prolonged freezing rain a possibility in the afternoon.
Stay tuned. Updates later
posted: Feb 21 2008 at 12:21 pm
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Snow to Sleet on Friday- Thurs AM Update
There are differences between the GFS and NAM model runs from last night, with the GFS having the precip earlier and the temps colder, and we'll go with the more reliable GFS model. Here are the current trends:
The snow will start earlier and heavier before daybreak on Friday. By daybreak Friday, as much as 2 inches of snow will be on the ground. An additional 1-2 inches of snow will fall Friday morning before mixing with sleet late morning. Additional accumulation of sleet on top of the snow before changing to a mix of sleet/rain and freezing rain by evening. A mess for driving in. Solar insolation through the clouds on dark pavement may limit icing during the mid-day hours.
It doesn't appear as though there will be much development of this storm until it's out over the ocean. Total accumulation may only be 2-4 inches of slush and ice in Philadelphia by evening and more in northern and western suburbs. Stay tuned.
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posted: Feb 21 2008 at 5:46 am
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Wed, 20 Feb 2008Snow to Sleet on Friday- Wed PM [2] Update
11 PM Latest GFS has more precip- about 3 inches snow in the morning and significantly more sleet in the afternoon.
Previous Discussion:
Latest NAM model just available shows light snow developing just before daybreak on Friday, then about 1-2 inches of snow Friday morning. It appears that the snow will change to sleet in and around Philadelphia about 1 PM, with some additional accumulations of sleet. Likely to become all rain by evening, but ground temperatures may be slow to rise, so freezing conditions a possibility during the afternoon and evening.
The GFS model hasn't yet become available but this afternoon's run of the model had very similar precipitation values as the latest NAM model. The GFS model was running colder, with more sleet going through much of the afternoon. Not a good day to drive, but the precip that occurs during the daytime may not be too bad on roadways since the solar angle is getting fairly high and solar insolation has to be taken into account this time of year. If ground temperatures fail to rise (a strong possibility) freezing rain may be prolonged Friday evening and night, as the sun angle goes lower. Difficult driving conditions likely then.
It doesn't appear as though there will be much development of this storm until it's out over the ocean. Total accumulation may only be 2-4 inches of slush and ice in Philadelphia by evening and more in northern and western suburbs. Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned.
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posted: Feb 20 2008 at 11:02 pm
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Snow to Sleet on Friday- Wed PM Update
Latest NAM model just available shows light snow developing just before daybreak on Friday, then about 1-2 inches of snow Friday morning. It appears that the snow will change to sleet in and around Philadelphia about 1 PM, with some additional accumulations of sleet. Likely to become all rain by evening, but ground temperatures may be slow to rise, so freezing conditions a possibility during the afternoon and evening.
The GFS model hasn't yet become available but this afternoon's run of the model had very similar precipitation values as the latest NAM model. The GFS model was running colder, with more sleet going through much of the afternoon. Not a good day to drive, but the precip that occurs during the daytime may not be too bad on roadways since the solar angle is getting fairly high and solar insolation has to be taken into account this time of year. If ground temperatures fail to rise (a strong possibility) freezing rain may be prolonged Friday evening and night, as the sun angle goes lower. Difficult driving conditions likely then.
It doesn't appear as though there will be much development of this storm until it's out over the ocean. Total accumulation may only be 2-4 inches of slush and ice in Philadelphia by evening and more in northern and western suburbs. Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned.
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posted: Feb 20 2008 at 10:24 pm
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Today, a coating...Friday a mess- Wed AM Update
The clipper that is expected to move through this afternoon is expected to have a minimal amount of precipitation associated with it. The GFS and NAM are forecasting only 0.03-0.05 inches water at this time, which translates into flurries or a coating at most. Further north, just flurries, further south, more of a coating.
Deep low pressure will affect us Friday into Friday night.; Another impulse will affect us on Saturday.
The models are showing a colder trend, with colder temps, more snow than ice, but less total precipitation. However, total amounts of water falling (QPF) is almost 0.50 inches water. If all snow, this is up to six inches. This storm won't be simple, since the rain-snow line will move north of PHL during the day and then move back over the city.
A difficult commute Friday morning and even more so Friday evening, as snow will start just before daybreak and be transitioning back in the late afternoon. For Philadelphia, this appears to be a snow -->sleet-->snow event, while areas north and west will see more snow, with the changeback to snow occuring late afternoon into the evening. Depending upon the amount of sleet (or even some freezing rain), exact accumulations will be difficult to predict. Best guess is about 3-4 inches of snow mixed with sleet by late Friday evening.
Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned.
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posted: Feb 20 2008 at 7:27 am
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Tue, 19 Feb 2008Wednesday snow looking like a non-event...but Friday? Tues PM
The clipper that is expected to move through Wednesday afternoon is expected to have a minimal amount of precipitation associated with it. The GFS and NAM are forecasting only 0.03 inches water at this time, which translates into flurries or a light coating at most.
Deep low pressure will affect us Thursday night into Friday; Another impulse will affect us on Saturday.
This looks like it will be an interesting storm, and a difficult one to predict. The models are showing a colder trend, with colder temps, more snow than ice, but less total precipitation.
A difficult commute is likely on Friday morning. Current trends is that snow will just be starting before daybreak. While it still appears that this will be another snow--->ice --> rain situation, with mostly rain expected by Friday afternoon, the changeover may be delayed as the impulse is further to our south.
Too early to be certain with this one. Stay tuned.
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please visit the site http://theweatherguy.net and click. Thanks!
posted: Feb 19 2008 at 8:42 pm
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Wednesday Snow looking like a non-event - Tues AM
The clipper that is expected to move through Wednesday afternoon is expected to have a minimal amount of precipitation associated with it. The GFS and NAM are forecasting only 0.03 inches water at this time, which translates into flurries or a coating at most.
Deep low pressure will affect us Thursday night into Friday. A difficult commute is likely on Friday morning. Currently, it appears that this will be another snow--->ice --> rain situation, with mostly rain expected by Friday afternoon. Too early to be certain with this one.
posted: Feb 19 2008 at 7:14 am
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Mon, 18 Feb 2008Light Snow Possible Wed Afternoon- Mon PM
The front went through this afternoon and much colder air will filter in over the next several days. A clipper disturbance is forecast to move through Wednesday afternoon, giving us a light coating of snow. Less than 1 inch expected, perhaps just a coating.
Deep low pressure will affect us Friday or Saturday. There are differences in the models with this storm and details and timing not certain at this time. Currently, it appears that this will be another snow/ice --> rain situation, with mostly rain expected. Too early to be certain with this one.
posted: Feb 18 2008 at 10:16 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Mon AM
Mild temps today will give way to normal, colder temps on Tuesday. High pressure builds in into Wednesday, when a disturbance may give us some light now in the afternoon Wednesday.
Low pressure developing in the southwest may give us a mix of rain and snow on Friday, but it's tending towards a changeover to rain. Updates during the week.
posted: Feb 18 2008 at 7:27 am
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Sat, 16 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM
Low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday. Rain moves in a bit later, closer to 6PM.
Sat 2/16: Sunny and cold. High 38
Sun 2/17 Some sun early, then cloudy. Light rain moves in about 6 PM, as temperatures moderate towards 50.
posted: Feb 16 2008 at 4:04 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
High pressure controls our weather today, Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday.
Sat 2/16: Sunny and cold. High 38
Sun 2/17 Some sun early, then cloudy. Light rain moves in between 3 and 6 PM , as temperatures moderate towards 50.
posted: Feb 16 2008 at 8:41 am
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Fri, 15 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
A front moves through tonight. Saturday will be sunny but cold. Deep low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday and will bring clouds. Rain moves in early evening.
Sat 2/16: Sunny and cold. High 37
Sun 2/17 Sunny early then cloudy by afternoon. Rain moves in early evening. Temperatures cold early, become warmer towards evening. High near 50.
posted: Feb 15 2008 at 7:28 pm
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Thu, 14 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
A front moves through Friday night. Saturday will be sunny but cold. Deep low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday and will bring clouds and light rain late in the day on Sunday.
Sat 2/16: Sunny and cold. High 37
Sun 2/17 Sunny early then cloudy by afternoon. Rain moves in late afternoon or early evening. High 43.
posted: Feb 14 2008 at 7:54 pm
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Wed, 13 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM
Low pressure developing along the coast will bring heavy rains today, then cold air moves in tonight. Little or no snow at the end.
A front moves through Friday night and a cold front moves through. Saturday will be sunny but cold. Deep low pressure will bring clouds and rain late in the day for Sunday.
Sat 2/16: Sunny and cold. High 37
Sun 2/17 Becoming mostly cloudy early, then rain by late afternoon. High 40.
posted: Feb 13 2008 at 7:08 am
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Tue, 12 Feb 2008Changes to Rain...by morning - Tues PM Update
The models still predict temps to rise well above freezing shortly after midnight, but as is often the case, the models often have the cold air leaving earlier than what really happens. Prolonged icing in northern and western suburbs possible over night.
Heavy rain predicted for Wednesday morning and more showery weather in the afternoon, as temps approach the upper 40s to near 50.
The light rain changes back to a light coating of snow later Wednesday night as colder air works back in.
9:15 PM-Just want to note that low pressure is developing off of the NJ coastline; Will be interesting to see if this becomes the major low, resulting in cold air coming back in earlier. The models aren't showing this, but interesting to watch.
posted: Feb 12 2008 at 9:21 pm
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Less Severe Icing - Tues AM
Not much snow/sleet/ice activity expected before later in the afternoon (after 4PM), as the NAM has minimal precip (0.03) while the GFS maintains 0.15 inches water falling as snow and sleet before 7 PM.
The trickiest time period will be 5 PM through 9PM in the immediate suburbs, as precipitation amounts increase to 0.40 inches water and the surface temps increase to near 40 degrees by midnight. Minimal snow expected, but ice pellets and freezing rain a strong possibility. The further north and west you go, the more significant the evening icing will be.
All rain by later this evening and rain on Wednesday with a possible change-back to light snow towards Wednesday evening.
posted: Feb 12 2008 at 7:37 am
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Mon, 11 Feb 2008Significant Icing Early Tuesday Evening -Mon Late PM Update
Update 10PM: Latest NAM has precip arriving later, closer to 6 PM, as snow but quickly turns over to sleet and freezing rain. Temps above freezing by 10PM in Philadelphia, later north and west. Precip amounts lower, closer to 0.40. More reliable GFS model data available later tonight. Update tomorrow AM.
Earlier discussion:
Significant icing and difficult driving conditions for areas just north and west of Philaelphia early Tuesday evening.
Cold soil temperatures, slow rising ground temperatures and heavy precipitation will make for bad winter weather for tomorrow's evening commmute. Precipitation amounts of near 0.50 inches water may make for quite an ice storm.
Precip will start as light snow during the afternoon (exact time seems to be shifting later) but will quickly mix with sleet and ice pellets then freezing rain. Freezing rain may be prolonged well into the evening on Tuesday before temps rise above freezing.
If the models are correct, a very dangerous commute will be in store. Updates to follow.
posted: Feb 11 2008 at 9:53 pm
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Significant Icing Early Tuesday Evening -Mon PM Update
Significant icing and difficult driving conditions for areas just north and west of Philaelphia late Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
Cold soil temperatures, slow rising ground temperatures and heavy precipitation will make for bad winter weather for tomorrow's evening commmute. Precipitation amounts of near 0.50 inches water may make for quite an ice storm.
Precip will start as light snow during the afternoon (exact time seems to be shifting later) but will quickly mix with sleet and ice pellets then freezing rain. Freezing rain may be prolonged well into the evening on Tuesday before temps rise above freezing.
If the models are correct, a very dangerous commute will be in store. Updates to follow.
posted: Feb 11 2008 at 6:03 pm
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Sat, 09 Feb 2008Weekend Weather Forecast Update- Sat AM
Neither model has predicted the early light snow showers we're having this morning, but the models do show this precipitation for this afternoon. Temps are already above freezing and temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s, so the precipitation type should change to rain. Total precip about 0.10 inches water.
Sat 2/9: Cloudy, with likely snow showers changing to rain showers in the afternoon. High 50.
Sun 2/10 Mostly sunny, some scattered clouds. Snow showers possible. VERY
WINDY. High 36.
posted: Feb 09 2008 at 8:25 am
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Winter Returns this Weekend- Fri PM [2]
Low pressure in the upper Great Lakes will swing a strong cold front through our area on Saturday night. There will be small upper air disturbances rotating around this low that will pass through our area on Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday. Light rain showers likely Saturday afternoon (0.10 inches water) and snow showers possible on Sunday afternoon.
Sat 2/9: Mostly cloudy, rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 50.
Sun 2/10 Mostly sunny, some scattered clouds. Snow showers possible. VERY
WINDY. High 36.
posted: Feb 09 2008 at 12:33 am
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Fri, 08 Feb 2008Winter Returns this Weekend- Fri PM
Low pressure in the upper Great Lakes will swing a strong cold front through our area on Saturday night. There will be small upper air disturbances rotating around this low that will pass through our area on Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday. Light rain showers and possibly snow showers will pass through during these times. No accumulations expected.
Sat 2/9: Mostly cloudy, some rain showers possible in the afternoon. High 50.
Sun 2/10 Mostly sunny, some scattered clouds. Snow showers possible. VERY
WINDY. High 36.
posted: Feb 08 2008 at 5:09 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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