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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Fri, 31 Dec 2010
Philadelphia New Years Weekend Forecast - Fri PM
Warmer temps until Sunday. A cold front slows down passing through.
Sat 1/1:Increasing cloudiness in the morning as a cold front approaches. Then cloudy in the afternoon. Showers early evening will be light, as much of the energy shears to our north. Cold front passes through slowly at midnight. High 46.
Sun 1/2: Clouds and some lingering showers in the morning due to the cold front slowing down. Clouds break about 2-4 PM for some sun. Colder air filters in. High temp 46 earlier in the day.
Closer to normal temps for the coming week. The deep cold weather returns in two weeks.
posted: Dec 31 2010 at 12:56 pm
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Sun, 26 Dec 2010Winter storm Update- 5 PM
This afternoon's model runs continue with the morning trend of about 0.60 water falling as snow tapering during the early morning hours. This is considerably less than was expected yesterday. (NJ, especially close to the shore will have much more.). A total of 5-8 inches is the likely storm total for PHL with less west and more east.
posted: Dec 26 2010 at 5:28 pm
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Sat, 25 Dec 2010Snow Storm again looking likely for Sunday- Sat AM
The last 4 runs of the GFS continue to predict a major snow storm for our area from Sunday noon through Sunday night. Over a foot of snow appears likely at this time with high winds. While the NAM shows only about 5-6 inches, my bet is on the GFS.
posted: Dec 25 2010 at 11:01 am
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Fri, 24 Dec 2010Snow Storm Fizzling for Philly- Maybe Not - Fri PM
As reported earlier today, this morning's GFS model once again showed a major coastal storm for PHL and looked similar to model runs of several days ago. The afternoon run of the GFS continued with a major snow storm starting Sunday afternoon and lasting through Sunday night. In fact, the GFS model was again showing well over 1 foot of snow for PHL.
The latest NAM model just available shows a trend closer to the coastline and greater development, with 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night. Tonight's GFS just available shows a major storm with more than 1 foot, starting mid afternoon Sunday. Stay tuned!
posted: Dec 24 2010 at 11:01 pm
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Snow Storm Fizzling for Philly? - Fri PM
This morning's models have changed a bit again. The NAM, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue with the storm far off-shore, although somewhat closer to the coastline, giving eastern NJ some snow. Away from the pack is the GFS, which has reverted to a storm much slower and nearer the coast giving Philadelphia some moderate snow late afternoon and evening. Will stay with little accumulation, but still need to watch for changes..
posted: Dec 24 2010 at 2:20 pm
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Thu, 23 Dec 2010Snow Storm Fizzling for Philly- Thur AM
This morning's models now point to an unphased or late phased weaker storm in the Atlantic. Much of the snow will miss us and even miss NJ. Updates later.
posted: Dec 23 2010 at 12:03 pm
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How much snow for Philadelphia and when?-Thur AM
I'm away in the tropics, but I'm continuing to track the possibility of snow for Philadelphia.
The details of this potential storm continue to change. The time frame, initially Saturday, is now late Sunday into Sunday night. The track, as depicted by the GFS, is now similar to the ECMWF model with the storm forming near Fl and then moving north along the coast. The latest trend is the precipitation will affect NJ and the accumulation will taper significantly less further west of the Delaware river. This is captured by the operational GFS as well as the statistical ensemble GFS ( which has the snow a bit further westward.) What is disturbing is that the latest NOGAPS model continues its forecast of keeping the energy unphased, resulting in virtually no coastal storm development at all. The same is true of the DGEX model. I have never seen a storm where the NOGAPS isn't onboard. So despite the agreement of the GFS and ECMWF, this snowstorm is still uncertain for PHL. Stay tuned.
posted: Dec 23 2010 at 7:25 am
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Mon, 20 Dec 2010Philadelphia Winter Weather Update -Mon PM
I'm away in the tropics, but I'm continuing to track the possibility of snow for this weekend which may affect our return flight.
The latest GFS model has moved the snow to Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Development of the surface low is now a bit further east, affecting NJ a bit more than eastern PA. The amplitude of the deep trough is somewhat less extreme than was showing several days ago.
So things are changing a bit, but a snow storm still appears likely during the upcoming weekend. Stay tuned!
posted: Dec 20 2010 at 9:20 pm
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Sun, 19 Dec 2010Philadelphia Winter Weather Update -Sun PM
I'm away in the tropics, but I'm continuing to track the possibility of a major snowstorm for Philadelphia late Xmas eve into Xmas day. A coastal low is expected to develop Friday and explode as upper air energy dives down to create a highly amplified pattern.
The GFS has been very consistent with this forecast for several days. Stay tuned!
posted: Dec 19 2010 at 4:13 pm
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Fri, 17 Dec 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
The deep cyclonic flow will continue, as the amplified jet stream continues to allow cold air to filter into our area. A developing coastal low pressure system initially looked like it would brush our area with snow on Sunday, but the latest GFS model has the storm too far east to affect us.
Sat 12/18: Sunny, then some cloudiness and cold. High 36
Sun 12/19: Partly cloudy and cold. High 35
There's a chance for a significant snowstorm Xmas day.
posted: Dec 17 2010 at 9:26 pm
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Thu, 16 Dec 2010Snow Today?- Updated Thurs AM
A low pressure system will be passing to our south today and is expected to brush our southern areas with snow. The GFS and NAM currently have less than 0.03 inches water falling as snow for PHL. That's a coating to at most an inch of snow. Sometimes we get nothing with this scenario. Areas to the north will likely get nothing.
If the area intensifies as it reaches the coast, I'll update.
posted: Dec 16 2010 at 8:28 am
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Wed, 15 Dec 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Wed PM
The deep cyclonic flow will continue, as the amplified jet stream continues to allow cold air to filter into our area. A developing coastal low pressure system initially looked like it would brush our area with snow on Sunday, but the latest GFS model has the storm too far east to affect us. Stay tuned.
Sat 12/18: Considerable cloudiness and cold. High 36
Sun 12/19: Cloudy and cold. Chance of light snow, especially along the NJ coast. A coastal storm will likely be east of the area, but the models (last year) tended to migrate these tracks to the west. Stay tuned. High 36.
posted: Dec 15 2010 at 8:06 pm
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Fri, 10 Dec 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A warm front moved over our area this afternoon. Temperatures are higher than they've been in awhile, relatively speaking.
Deep low pressure will move just north of us on Sunday, as a cold front moves through later Sunday evening. Ahead of the front, mild temperatures on Sunday, but rain in the morning, tapering and then heavier rain towards evening. The front moves through between 9 PM and midnight Sunday; most of the moisture will be swept out with the front, but some snow flurries are possible before daybreak Monday and during the day Monday. A highly amplified upper air pattern will allow very cold air to affect us later late Monday into Wednesday.
Sat 12/11: Considerable cloudiness and milder. High 46
Sun 12/12: Mild. Rain in the morning, tapering in the afternoon, then rain picking up again towards evening. Mild and breezy. Chance of a thunderstorm during the evening, then turning colder towards midnight. Chance of snow showers. High 54, becoming abruptly colder after 9PM.
posted: Dec 10 2010 at 7:51 pm
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Wed, 08 Dec 2010Philadelphia Winter Weather Update -Wed PM
A very interesting weather pattern setting up as an extremely deep upper air trough will develop as low pressure builds and intensifies along the boundary.
On Saturday, winds will pickup from the south bringing moisture and milder temps. Low pressure will develop along the advancing cold front Sunday through early Monday. Some light snow or sleet may begin late Sat night but will change to rain. The latest GFS slows the frontal passage slowing down and changing the mostly rain event to snow before tapering off later Sunday afternoon or late night. In fact, today's GFS has thundersnow for late Sunday night/Monday morning before daybreak.
posted: Dec 08 2010 at 11:02 pm
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Philadelphia Winter Weather Update -Wed PM
A very interesting weather pattern setting up as an extremely deep upper air trough will develop as low pressure builds and intensifies along the boundary.
On Saturday, winds will pickup from the south bringing moisture and milder temps. Low pressure will develop along the advancing cold front Sunday through early Monday. Some light snow or sleet may begin late Sat night but will change to rain. The latest GFS slows the frontal passage slowing down and changing the mostly rain event to snow before tapering off later Sunday afternoon or late night. Stay tuned!
posted: Dec 08 2010 at 8:05 pm
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Mon, 06 Dec 2010Philadelphia Weather Outlook- Mon PM
A very interesting weather map, as deep low pressure in eastern Canada is rotating a very cold airmass into far southern areas of the US. The depth of this deep upper trough has increased since the model runs of last week. In fact, today's GFS model run has a deep surface low pressure system moving through on Sunday with deep freeze temperatures affecting much of the eastern US.
Right now, the precip will likely start as snow before daybreak on Sunday, will likely change to rain, and may end in snow showers later Sunday. High winds and very cold temperatures later Sunday into early next week! Stay tuned.
posted: Dec 06 2010 at 7:03 pm
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Fri, 03 Dec 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
Low pressure in eastern Canada will cause a cold northwesterly flow at the surface while an upper air broad trough develops and becomes entrenched over us for the next week. An upper air disturbance (area of vorticity) rotating around the low will bring some mid level cloudiness Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
So while my winter outlook has some milder than normal temperatures, the short range will feature much below normal temperatures.
Sat 12/4: Sunny and cold in the morning, some mid level cloudiness in the afternoon. High 43.
Sun 12/5: Considerable mid level cloudiness much of the day, Windy. High 42.
Climate Forecast Discussion Nov 2010: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter.
posted: Dec 03 2010 at 8:10 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thu PM
Cold high pressure will maintain below normal temperatures for the weekend. A weak upper sir disturbance will bring some clouds on Sunday
Sat 12/4: Mostly sunny and cold. High 43.
Sun 12/5: Partly sunny and continued cold. High 42.
Climate Forecast Discussion Nov 2010: Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up. Total solar irradiance has increased, although this solar cycle appears to show lower than predicted activity. Nonetheless, solar flux is now closer to 90 instead of 70 during 2009. The increased thermal background of greenhouse on top of this solar activity should result in much milder temps this fall and winter. Additionally, the increased energy available for low pressure development will likely result in some additional monster storms. Rain or ice storms or snow turning to sleet/rain will be the more likely scenario for us this winter.
posted: Dec 03 2010 at 8:06 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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