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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Miscellaneous
Sat, 25 Feb 2012
Weather Update- Sat AM
An upper air disturbance has generated some strong snow flurry activity in a band north and west of Philadelphia. Undetected by the models last night.
Sat 2/25: Snow Flurries ending during the early afternoon. A coating possible on some surfaces. High 40.
Sun 2/26: Sunny. High 46.
posted: Feb 25 2012 at 10:33 am
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Fri, 24 Feb 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri
A relatively strong cold front (at least for this winter) will move through this evening, as low pressure develops along the coast. A strong pressure gradient will result in high winds both this evening and during the day on Saturday
Sat 2/25: A mix of clouds and sun, very windy. High 43.
Sun 2/26: Sunny. High 46.
posted: Feb 24 2012 at 5:41 pm
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Sun, 19 Feb 2012Philly Weather Update- Sun AM
The models are keeping the low pressure system to our south today. Some cloudiness still expected, but some sunshine as well. Little or no precipitation in the PHL area.
Sun 2/19: Partly sunny/partly cloudy. High 44.
posted: Feb 19 2012 at 8:34 am
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Fri, 17 Feb 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri PM
High pressure will exit on Saturday as low pressure moves in from the southwest on Sunday. Some degree of intensification is expected with this low, as the upper air pattern sharpens and brings down some cold air. The latest GFS keeps the precipitation to the south of Philadelphia.
Sat 2/18: Partly sunny, some mid-level cloudiness late morning and early afternoon. High 46.
Sun 2/19: Cloudy. Some light rain or snow showers late afternoon or evening. High 40.
posted: Feb 17 2012 at 8:37 pm
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Thu, 16 Feb 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu AM
High pressure will exit on Saturday as low pressure moves in from the southwest on Sunday. Some degree of intensification is expected with this low, as the upper air pattern sharpens and brings down some cold air. Nonetheless, the precip is expected to start as rain on Sunday, and likely will turn to some wet snow before ending in the evening. Because the temperatures are at or just above freezing, little accumulation is expected, perhaps a coating to an inch.
Sat 2/18: Sunny most of the day, some increase in cloudiness late in the afternoon. High 46.
Sun 2/19: Cloudy with light rain, mixing with and changing to light wet snow by the late afternoon. Little accumulation (coating to an inch) expected at this time by evening. High 38.
posted: Feb 16 2012 at 7:33 am
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Sat, 11 Feb 2012Philly Winter Weather Update- Sat 11 AM
The latest NAM and GFS model output just became available. Both models have periods of snow showers and flurries developing as the arctic front moves through later this afternoon, about 3-5 PM and again this evening about 9 PM. As the front approaches and moves through, winds will increase from the west and northwest.
Based on both models, another coating to an inch of snow is likely by evening; this time around temperatures will be fallling so that icey road conditions are possible this evening.
posted: Feb 11 2012 at 11:04 am
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Philly Winter Weather Update- Sat 8 AM
The 1 AM runs of the GFS and NAM continue with light snow in the morning and light flurries in the afternoon. The current snow is in-line with the predictions of last night. The NAM includes another burst of an inch of snow this evening as the arctic front moves through.
posted: Feb 11 2012 at 8:34 am
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Fri, 10 Feb 2012Philly Winter Weather Update- Fri 7PM
This afternoon's GFS and NAM model runs have cut back on the precipitation expected later this evening and tomorrow morning. Total QPF values are closer to 0.20 inches water, some of which will fall as rain or very wet snow before a change over to snow towards morning.
So it's looking like a minimal snow for the immediate PHL area. The next model runs become available about 9:15 PM for the NAM and about 10:45 for the GFS. I'll update if things change.
posted: Feb 10 2012 at 7:39 pm
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Philly Winter Weather Update- Fri 10AM
The latest NAM data just became available. It shows over 0.40+ inches of water falling as a mix of rain and snow starting late Friday night and ending as all snow during the morning on Saturday.
Temperatures around sunrise will dip to freezing. Temperatures aloft support snow for much of the time, although the amount of surface melt is uncertain. More on grassy surfaces still likely, although early morning driving Saturday may be challenging.
Areas to the north and west of Philadelphia will have less total QPF (QPF, or quantity of precipatiion falling), but more will be in the form of accumulating snowfall.
Either way, the current trend is towards more precipitation and as much as 2-3 inches is now possible when all is said and done. This system is still evolving, so expect further changes in the forecast.
posted: Feb 10 2012 at 10:26 am
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
An interesting forecast for this evening, as both the NAM and GFS forecast low pressure to form on the NC coast and move up and away. Enough cold air aloft will allow most to fall as wet snow, but both models now keep the ground surface temperatures above freezing. The NAM cranks out considerable precipitation, which if were all snow would be over 4 inches. However, with surface temperatures forecast to be in the mid 30s, it's hard to see how there will be much accumulation.
So a grassy surface accumulation is most likely in the city area, but areas north and west will have less precipitation but greater likelihood of surface accumulations. With so many variables, confidence in any accumulation forecast is very low at this time.
I'll update later this afternoon and again this evening. Stay tuned.
Sat 2/11: Cloudy with light snow ending during the morning. Some flurries in the afternoon. Windy and much colder. High 35.
Sun 2/12: Sunny windy and very cold. High 29.
posted: Feb 10 2012 at 8:48 am
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Thu, 09 Feb 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Thu PM
As has been the case this winter, the forecast for periods beyond 3 days is often quite unreliable. This has been the case this week, with the models only over the past day suggesting the development of a coastal low pressure system as a cold front comes through on Friday night into Saturday.
The latest GFS model run shows a sharpening upper trough in eastern Canada with low pressure developing off the coast of NC Friday night. Because of the current positive tilt to the system, the GFS has the low moving away to our east rapidly, with the northern extent just reaching Philadelphia, although areas of South Jersey may get significantly more snow.
With the models just now predicting this development, the confidence in the amount and extent of snow is still very uncertain. The current system has about 2-3 inches of snow for Philadelphia. Again, this forecast amount is low confidence at this time. Stay tuned.
Sat 2/11: Cloudy with snow ending during the late morning. Some flurries in the afternoon. Windy and much colder. High 35.
Sun 2/12: Sunny windy and very cold. High 29.
posted: Feb 09 2012 at 8:10 pm
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Wed, 08 Feb 2012Philly Weekend Weather Outlook - Wed PM
A significant cold front will move through the area on Friday, with a reinforcing boundary of cold air moving through on Saturday. Some snow flurries are possible on Saturday.
The mild pattern we've had for much of the winter will temporarily fade, as a deep upper trough develops over the Northeast. Very cold temperatures are expected for the weekend, especially Sunday.
Sat 2/11: Sun mixed with clouds windy and colder. Chance of light flurries in the afternoon. High 34.
Sun 2/12: Sunny windy and very cold. High 29.
posted: Feb 08 2012 at 4:09 pm
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Tue, 07 Feb 2012Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 10PM
The latest NAM just available has light snow starting about 5PM Wed evening and ending around midnight. About a coating to an inch is expected.
posted: Feb 07 2012 at 10:19 pm
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Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues 10PM
The latest NAM just available has light snow starting about 5PM Wed evening and ending around midnight. About a coating to an inch isvexpected.
posted: Feb 07 2012 at 10:18 pm
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Sat, 04 Feb 2012Philly Winter Weather Update- Sat 8 AM
Last night's models have differences for Sunday's possible slight snow for Philadelphia. The GFS continues to have us on the northern fringe of a weak, fast moving system, giving us anything from snow flurries to a light coating. The NAM suppresses the system more to the south giving us nothing. While the NAM has not been very good this winter, it does tend to accurately predict suppression of systems to the south.
Areas to the south, especially northern Delaware and southern Chester county are more likely to see some light snow. Either way, this will NOT be a significant system and is not expected to intensify very much. My general take on this system is that it won't be much of anything.
posted: Feb 04 2012 at 8:57 am
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Fri, 03 Feb 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri PM
A continued inconsistent model forecast for the weekend. The latest GFS model, just available, shows a cold front approaching on Saturday and moving through Saturday night.
At the same time, a low pressure wave moves through on the front, just to our south. The latest GFS has this low just brushing southern PA and has some light snow falling Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Temps aloft are expected to be cold enough for snow, but surface temps may only be in the mid 30s. Either way, not much accumulation is expected at this time, with a coating to wet inch possible. It seems that temps will rise above freezing enough in the afternoon to melt much of what falls.
Any change in the intensity of the low will sling more snow up to us, while any increase in the cold flow aloft may supress it further to our south. Stay tuned- this forecast is likely to change!
Sat 2/4 Sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. High about 45
Sun 2/5: Cloudy with light snow in the morning, a coating to an inch, likely melting on most surfaces. High 40
posted: Feb 03 2012 at 12:18 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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