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Miscellaneous
Wed, 30 Apr 2008
Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Sun 5/4: More clouds than sun with showers likely. High 62.
A warm frontal situation will develop on Thursday as the cold high pressure system that's been over us departs. This boundary seems to linger in our area through Saturday. It's unclear whether showers will be with us on Saturday, but it seems that we may get a break in the shower activity and that Saturday will be mostly dry.
Sat 5/3: A mix of clouds and sun. Slight chance of a shower, but most of the day dry. High 62 (more sun may push temps to near 70.)
posted: Apr 30 2008 at 8:25 pm
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Sun, 27 Apr 2008Sunday Forecast Update
The rain has ended for now, but the models suggest that clouds and dampness hang in for the rest of the day. (perhaps a brief period of clearing late afternoon before clouds return tonight.)
Sun 4/27: Cloudy cool and damp. High 58.
posted: Apr 27 2008 at 8:29 am
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Sat, 26 Apr 2008Sunday Forecast Change- Sat PM Update
The latest NAM (which accurately predicted the cloudiness today...I thought we'd see more sun) is predicting a slow down of the front moving through PA tonight. Low pressure willdevelop along the front and result in a rainy and cloudy Sunday.
Sun 4/27: Cloudy with rain in the morning, showers in the afternoon and evening. High 59.
posted: Apr 26 2008 at 7:17 pm
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Fri, 25 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri Afternoon Update
Sun 4/27: A mix of clouds and sun and cooler. Slight chance of a shower. Most of the day dry. High 62.
A slowly advancing cold front will approach during the weekend. Both the GFS and NAM models crank out some shower activity, but the activity is predicted during the evening and nighttime hours. A closed low in the upper atmosphere will keep things unsettled on Sunday, with much cooler temps.
Sat 4/26: Low clouds and fog early, then a mix of sun and clouds. Most of the day dry. Chance of widely scattered showers during the night. High 69.
posted: Apr 25 2008 at 12:20 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
Sun 4/27: A mix of clouds and sun and cooler. Slight chance of a shower. Most of the day dry. High 58.
A slowly advancing cold front will approach during the weekend. Both the GFS and NAM models crank out some shower activity, but most of the activity is predicted during the evening and nighttime hours. A closed low in the upper atmosphere will keep things unsettled on Sunday, with much cooler temps.
Sat 4/26: A mix of sun and clouds. Most of the day dry. Chance of widely scattered showers in the evening. High 68.
posted: Apr 25 2008 at 8:08 am
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs PM
Sun 4/27: A mix of clouds and sun. A chance of a light shower, but most of the day dry. High 60.
A slowly developing cold front will approach during the weekend. Both the GFS and NAM models crank out some shower activity, with most occurring in the late afternoon and evening on Saturday. I think that most of the shower activity will be light and most of the weekend will be dry. A closed low in the upper atmosphere will keep things unsettled on Sunday, with cooler temps.
Sat 4/26: A mix of sun and clouds. Most of the day dry. Chance of widely scattered showers in the late afternoon. High 68.
posted: Apr 25 2008 at 8:03 am
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Wed, 23 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Wednesday
A cold front will slowly approach from the west on Saturday. The GFS currently is predicting showers developing during the day, both on Saturday and Sunday, with more orgnized rain (ending the current dry spell) for Monday.
It's too early to be certain of the timing of the showers for the weekend, as the GFS has been over-predicting showers lately. But a somewhat unsettled weekend is likely with a mix of clouds, sun and possibly some showers.
I'll update tomorrow.
posted: Apr 23 2008 at 10:06 pm
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Sun, 20 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Improved Sunday
This morning's NAM continues the idea that we'll have breaks of sun mid-day with thickening clouds late in the afternoon and evening.
Sun 4/20: Some clouds and fog possible early, then breaks of sun mid-day, then clouds increase again in the afternoon. Chance of showers late afternoon or early evening. High 68.
posted: Apr 20 2008 at 12:51 pm
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Sat, 19 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Improved Sunday
Sunday is looking better, as the diffuse low pressure system will approach tonight, but thick clouds and precipitation will wait until evening.
Sun 4/20: Some clouds and fog possible early, then breaks of sun mid-day, then clouds increase again in the afternoon. Chance of showers late afternoon or early evening. High 68.
posted: Apr 19 2008 at 7:10 pm
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Fri, 18 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Friday early PM
Sun 4/20: Some breaks of sun early morning, then thickening clouds. Showers possible, especially late in the day. Cooler. High in the low 60s. High
High pressure drifts off the coast during the day on Saturday, as a weak low pressure system moves towards us from the west. An easterly flow is expected to develop around the departing high as it moves northeast. In conjuction with the approaching low, the moist easterly flow will develop a warm-frontal type over-running in our area on Sunday resulting in clouds and light drizzle or showers late. There is uncertainty about showers during the day on Sunday with the GFS MOS data showing 50% chance but the GFS being dry. The NAM is much cooler than the GFS by 10 degrees!
Sat 4/19: Sunny and warm! High 81.
posted: Apr 18 2008 at 2:04 pm
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Weekend Weather Outlook- Friday AM
Sun 4/20: Cloudy during the morning and early afternoon. Light drizzle followed by heavier rain towards evening. High 62.
High pressure drifts off the coast during the day on Saturday, as a weak low pressure system moves towards us from the west. An easterly flow is expected to develop around the departing high as it moves northeast. In conjuction with the approaching low, the moist easterly flow will develop a warm-frontal type over-running in our area on Sunday resulting in clouds and light drizzle or showers.
Sat 4/19: Sunny and warm! High 81.
posted: Apr 18 2008 at 12:04 pm
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Wed, 16 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM
Sun 4/20: A mix of clouds and sun. High 70.
Moderating temperatures and truly spring-like weather as high pressure departs off the coast. The closed low spoken about in my last discussion stays off the coast and nice weather continues into the weekend.
A weak low pressure system approaches from the west during the day on Saturday. The system is weak and diffuse and only light scattered showers are showing for Sunday. This system has little upper air support and may fall apart by the time it reaches us. Too soon to tell.
Sat 4/19: Mostly sunny, high in the upper 70s!
posted: Apr 16 2008 at 7:49 am
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Sun, 13 Apr 2008Week Weather Outlook
This coming week starts out cool, as an upper trough hangs over us through Wednesday. Cool temperatures will moderate by Wednesday and an overall dry period appears to be in the offering for us.
The models are suggesting that a closed low will form in the coastal Atlantic area at the end of the week, but there are differences in position and movement of this closed low.
Currently it appears that we will be on the dry side possibly through next weekend. But, in April, things change rapidly, so expect something interesting to develop during the week.
posted: Apr 13 2008 at 8:44 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Sun AM Update
A secondary cold front will move through our area this afternoon. Cloudiness and possibly a brief light shower possible later in the day. Much colder weather expected as a deep cyclonic upper flow establishes itself over our area for the first part of the week.
Sun 4/13: Sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy by the afternoon. There's a chance of a light shower later in the afternoon. Cooler. High 58.
posted: Apr 13 2008 at 8:50 am
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Sat, 12 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM Update
A cold front moved through this evening and a secondary front will move through during the afternoon on Sunday. Much colder weather expected as a deep cyclonic upper flow establishes itself over our area for the first part of the week.
Sun 4/13: Sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy during the afternoon. There's a chance of a light shower later in the afternoon. Cooler. High 55.
posted: Apr 12 2008 at 9:53 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM Update
Sun 4/13: Mostly cloudy. There's a slight chance of a shower. Cooler. High 55.
A stacked upper and surface low in the Great Lakes will rotate frontal areas of instability over our area. This is a common feature in April.
One of these frontal zones is located just to our west today, near the Susquehanna river. It will rotate through our area today and showers are possible at any time today, as it is difficult to identify a specific trigger for the showers/thunderstorms. If the sun remains out, the day's heating will also trigger these thunderstorms. I wish I could discern a likely time for these thunderstorms, but it's difficult today. Best bet is about 1-4 PM today.
The latest models suggest cloudy conditions for much of Sunday as another area of instability rotates through.
Sat 4/12: A mix of clouds and sun today. A chance of a shower/thunderstorm at anytime, mostly likely between 1-4 PM. Mild. High in the mid 70s!
posted: Apr 12 2008 at 8:33 am
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Fri, 11 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Update Fri PM
Sun 4/13: Mostly cloudy. Some sun may break out later in the afternoon. Cooler. High 58.
A strong cold front will slowly approach our area late Friday into Saturday. The main low will be in the Great Lakes.
Earlier discussion continues to be supported by this afternoon's model data. Most of the rain will be tonight (Friday night), with just a brief shower mid morning on Saturday. Brightening skies during the afternoon with some sunny breaks possible.
The latest models suggest cloudy conditions for much of Sunday.
Sat 4/12: Cloudy early with a light shower possible in the morning, then partly sunny. MILD. High in the mid 70s!
posted: Apr 11 2008 at 8:51 pm
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Forecast Updated- A better Saturday!
Sun 4/13: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler. High 58.
A strong cold front will slowly approach our area late Friday into Saturday. The main low will be in the Great Lakes.
The latest NAM model has the major precip moving both north and south of us. It's looking a lot like last Saturday, where the NAM predicts a nice day and the GFS has a rainout. I'm going with the NAM model again.
Sat 4/12: Cloudy early with a light shower possible in the morning, then partly sunny. MILD. High in the mid 70s!
posted: Apr 11 2008 at 12:10 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Friday AM update
Sun 4/13: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler. High 58.
A strong cold front will slowly approach our area late Friday into Saturday. The main low will be in the Great Lakes, but the slow moving front will cause low pressure and moist flow to move up over us Friday through Saturday. Compared to last weekend (where the Saturday forecast between the GFS and NAM were so different), this weekend's model forecasts are much more similar. The GFS is wetter than the NAM
Sat 4/12: Mostly cloudy, but with occasional breaks in the overcast possible. Showers and even a thunderstorm likely, mostly in the afternoon, but a light shower is possible anytime during the day. MILD. High in the low 70s!
posted: Apr 11 2008 at 9:26 am
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Tue, 08 Apr 2008Week Weather Outlook- Tuesday
A strong cold front will slowly approach our area late Friday into Saturday. The main low will be in the Great Lakes, but the slow moving front will cause low pressure and moist flow to move up over us Friday through Saturday.
Saturday may be quite wet, if the current timing holds, although I expect things to change in this regard, similar to last weekend's changed forecast.
For Sunday, colder, windy, unsettled weather will be with us, as an upper cyclonic flow establishes itself over us through the middle of next week.
posted: Apr 08 2008 at 9:08 pm
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Mon, 07 Apr 2008Week Weather Outlook- Monday
Transitional weather for this week in April is fairly typical, with plenty of clouds and cooler conditions than we'd all like.
A rather bland pattern for the week, as low pressure disturbances move up to our west through the Great Lakes. A more definitive system moves our way later on Friday, giving us showers and unsettled conditions through Saturday. Sunday may have some partial clearing, but cooler temps move in.
Springtime is meteorologically transitional time. The models do somewhat poorly in the long term, so expect changes in the forecast to be frequent in April.
posted: Apr 07 2008 at 4:32 pm
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Sat, 05 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM Update
Things dried out even better than I could have expected and the NAM handled today pretty good! Clouds return tonight and for most of Sunday as a low pressure move up from the Carolinas to the east. Latest NAM has only 0.06 inches of water falling as light scattered showers in the morning on Sunday. It may be drier than that, although both the GFS and NAM have some precip for Sunday morning. Very slow clearing in the afternoon and we may not see any sun until late.
Sun 4/6: Cloudy with some light showers in the morning, very slow clearing in the afternoon. Clouds may not break until late in the afternoon,if at all. A northeasterly flow will keeps things cold and damp. High 47.
posted: Apr 05 2008 at 7:38 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM Update
The NAM continues its dry forecast for Saturday and now has rain redeveloping on Sunday morning. It looks quite possible that we will have some sun today. Confidence is lower than usual in this weekend's forecast.
Sat 4/5: Low clouds break for some sun today. High 59.
Sun 4/6: Cloudy with some showers in the morning, slow clearing in the afternoon. High 60.
posted: Apr 05 2008 at 8:27 am
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Fri, 04 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM Update
Today's models didn't capture the slowing front very well; they over-predicted the rain today and didn't capture the periods of clearing very well. The NAM seemed to do better than the GFS.
The frontal boundary continues to slow down. Looking at the NAM model, it keeps low clouds through early afternoon on Saturday (and no rain), but suggests breaks in the overcast in the afternoon. Then it predicts rain re-developing Saturday night. So the NAM has us dry for much of Saturday. BUT, the GFS shows a very wet Saturday. With this sort of divergence in the models, confidence in this weekend's forecast is poorer than normal. I'd go with the NAM model and a dry forecast, but it may be very wrong.
The GFS continues with wet conditions early Sunday morning, drying out in the afternoon. Again, a very uncertain forecast.
Sat 4/5: Based on the NAM model, low clouds in the morning, some clearing in the afternoon before rain redevelops at night. High 59. Low confidence forecast.
Sun 4/6: Clouds and showers linger early, then partial clearing. High 60. Low confidence forecast for Sunday.
posted: Apr 04 2008 at 9:31 pm
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Thu, 03 Apr 2008Weekend Weather Outlook- Thur PM Update
The models continue to slow down the cold front as it passes through our area on Saturday. Waves of low pressure preceed the frontal passage bringing rain for Friday, that is now predicted to redevelop on Saturday as yet another wave forms on the front. So Saturday looks like a rainout at this point.
With the frontal boundary slowing down, an additional wave of low pressure may affect clearing on Sunday.
Sat 4/5: Cloudy with rain for much of the day. High 58.
Sun 4/6: Clouds linger early, then partial clearing. High 60. There is uncertainty with the Sunday forecast.
posted: Apr 03 2008 at 9:28 pm
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Weekend Weather Outlook- Thur AM Update
A slow moving frontal system with a wave of low pressure riding up along the front will push through on Saturday. Earlier models had suggested that the precip would be over Saturday morning, but last night's model runs showed showers lingering through much of the morning on Saturday with slow clearing in the afternoon. It's not yet certain whether the sun will make it out at all on Saturday.
Sunday looks nice.
Sat 4/5: Rain early tapers to light showers in the morning ending about noon, later to the south and east. Clouds may break for some sun late in the afternoon. High 56
Sun 4/6: Sunny skies. Temps close to 60.
posted: Apr 03 2008 at 7:37 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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