theweatherguy's website
Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
About this blog
theweatherguy's website,
"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."
aka "theweatherguy"
Copy link for RSS feed
These are a few of my favorite links. Meteorology Glossary
Weather Archives:
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
12: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
11: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
10: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
09: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
07: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
06: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Commentary:
Miscellaneous
Mon, 30 Nov 2009
Snow?
As mentioned yesterday, the computer models are looking more and more winterlike.
The latest GFS model has a changed the forecast for the upcoming week/weekend-- it shows a deeper and broader upper trough developing during the week, with heavy rain for late Wednesday into Thursday. Once the cold air moves in on Friday, the latest GFS has a fast moving low developing and moving up the coast on Saturday, possibly giving us some wet snow late Saturday.
With ongoing changes in the computer models, we'll have to wait to see if this early snow becomes a reality. Expect a wintery weekend, certainly colder than it has been since last winter.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 30 2009 at 6:39 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Solar Cycle-> Philly Climate Forecast for 2009-2010
Solar activity has continued to gradually increase and solar flux values have gradually risen into 70s. There have been several areas of active sunspots emerging over recent weeks and an older very active area is rotating back into view.
Solar Cycle 24 has truly begun, albeit a year or two late. As a result of having had solar activity remain so low for such a long time, the effects of low total solar irradiance will likely to continue to affect our climate in the short term.
Despite some stretches of warm weather (recent weeks being an example), I believe we will remain in an climatically cold weather pattern on average for the fall and most of our winter. Indeed, it is possible that we may have record cold for the winter. While greater than average snowfall is possible, precipitation predictions are much less certain. <p>
posted: Nov 30 2009 at 6:39 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Sun, 29 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weather Week Outlook- Sun PM
A weak front will move through on Monday. A deep upper trough will develop Wednesday through Thursday and a deep Nor'easter will develop along the boundary and move over us Thursday.
Thursday looks stormy with wind and rain. Friday looks wintery, as very cold weather moves in. Saturday remains dry and cold, and like today, next Sunday will see fair, milder weather.
The weather map, not surprisingly, looks more and more like December, as cold air masses are poised to move in.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 29 2009 at 6:50 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Sat, 28 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Forecast- Sat PM
High pressure will move off the coast as low pressure approaches. The latest models have slowed down the moisture return aloft, so clouds will move in mostly after dark on Sunday.
Sun 11/29 Mostly sunny and mild. High near 60.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 28 2009 at 4:57 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Thu, 26 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update-Thurs PM
A quick update- Latest NAM has showers lasting until 10-11 AM on Friday. Very windy conditions and temps in the 40s.
posted: Nov 26 2009 at 10:15 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Philadelphia Week Weather Forecast- Thurs AM
Despite the model predictions for overcast skies, I thought the cloud cover might be thin enough for some bright spots or even some sun peeking through. Still holding out for this today. A cold front will move through with rain tonight, ending during the early morning hours of Friday. Friday will turn out to be partly cloudy, windy and cooler.
The upper trough will relax over the weekend, allowing high pressure to build in. With the return of milder air, (mostly aloft), we'll have dry weather and partly cloudy/partly sunny conditions. Difficult to determine how much in the way of high cloudiness.
Fri 11/27: Clouds and early light showers will break mid-morning to partly sunny/partly cloudy conditions, but WINDY. High 48.
Sat 11/28: Partly cloudy/partly sunny. High 51
Sun 11/29 Partly cloudy/partly sunny for most of the day. Some increasing cloudiness late in the afternoon. High 55
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 26 2009 at 10:14 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook
The current pattern of warmer than average weather will undergo a change this week with the transitional day being Thursday. A week ago, the GFS was showing wet weather for Thursday, but the model has not been consistent in the long term lately and it now shows dry, fair weather. (Example--Today's beautiful weather was not in the GFS forecast four days ago. )
Colder, windy weather will be with us for most of Friday through the weekend.
With this expected pattern change and the lack of model cpnsistency, expect changes in the forecast as well.
posted: Nov 26 2009 at 10:12 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Wed AM
The models continue to be inconsistent. Specifics of the forecast for later part of the week continue change and the sharp upper trough expected to bring colder weather (and windy rain) will have its maximum effect on Friday.
The deep trough previously predicted to go negative tilt is now predicted to relax by Saturday, keeping the cold inclement weather mostly for Friday.
Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, doesn't look too bad, as a coastal low will be far offshore. I think Thursday will be mostly dry, possibly even some sun in the morning before the cold front and showers come through during the evening.
Friday appears to be the timeframe of bad weather, with windy, cold and rainy conditions, although the latest GFS has backed off considerably on the amount of rain for Fri.
Saturday will likely be breezy but mostly sunny and milder than previously expected. (High 55)
Sunday will be nice and even milder.
There still appears to be much model inconsistency with the upcoming weekend specifics. Expect changes in the forecast.
posted: Nov 26 2009 at 11:52 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Tue, 24 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Tues AM
Specifics of the forecast for later part of the week continue change and the sharp upper trough expected to bring colder weather (and windy rain) will have its maximum effect on Friday.
For the next few days though, specifics have been inconsistent.
Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, doesn't look too bad, as a coastal low will be far offshore. I think Thursday will be mostly dry, possibly even some sun (?)
Thursday night through Friday appears to be the timeframe of bad weather, with windy, cold and rainy conditions.
Saturday will likely be windy and colder.
This upper trough is expected to relax on Sunday, with moderating temperatures and perhaps some cloudiness as warm air moves back from the south over the cold airmass.
The cold pattern disappears again by next week, but the long range model output (not surprisingly) is looking colder and more winter-like.
There still appears to be much uncertainty with the upcoming weekend specifics. Expect changes in the forecast.
posted: Nov 24 2009 at 7:49 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Mon, 23 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Mon PM
The pattern change I spoke of yesterday is still on schedule. Specifics of the forecast for Thanksgiving and the weekend continue to evolve.
The sharp upper trough expected to move through late Thursday may spawn some light showers. Low pressure is now expected to develop on the approaching cold front Thursday evening, giving us a windy, rainy day for Friday.
Saturday will likely be windy and colder.
This upper trough is expected to relax on Sunday, with moderating temperatures and perhpas some cloudiness as warm air moves back from the south over the cold airmass.
The cold pattern disappears by next week, but the long range model output is (not surprisingly) looking colder and more winter-like.
There still appears to be much uncertainty with the upcoming weekend specifics. Expect changes in the forecast.
posted: Nov 23 2009 at 9:53 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Sun, 22 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook
The current pattern of warmer than average weather will undergo a change this week with the transitional day being Thursday. A week ago, the GFS was showing wet weather for Thursday, but the model has not been consistent in the long term lately and it now shows dry, fair weather. (Example--Today's beautiful weather was not in the GFS forecast four days ago. )
Colder, windy weather will be with us for most of Friday through the weekend.
With this expected pattern change and the lack of model cpnsistency, expect changes in the forecast as well.
posted: Nov 22 2009 at 9:02 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Sat, 21 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
High pressure will build in following the departing low on Friday. Saturday should be pleasant wiith mostly sunny skies. it now appears that the high will suppress the approaching low to our south on Sunday.
Sat 11/21: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 60.
Sun 11/22 Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 60.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 21 2009 at 8:29 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Thu, 19 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs AM
High pressure will build in following the departing low on Friday. Saturday should be pleasant wiith mostly sunny skies. An approachin low will bring increasing clouds on Sunday.
Sat 11/21: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 60.
Sun 11/22 Increasing clouds early, becoming mostly cloudy by late afternoon. Chance of a light shower late. High 62.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 19 2009 at 8:49 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Tue, 17 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Tues AM
High pressure will build in following the departing low on Friday. Saturday should be pleasant with partly to mostly sunny skies. The GFS is showing a low pressure system develop in the Gulf of Mexico and quickly move up along and east of the coast on Sunday, giving us some increasingly cloudy conditions.
Sat 11/21: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 59.
Sun 11/22 Increasing clouds early, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. Chance of a light shower late. High 55.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 17 2009 at 7:36 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Sat, 14 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat AM
The coastal low will gradually weaken as it moves slowly away on Saturday. Winds will diminish and there will be less of a chance of showers and drizzle. A weak front moves through Sunday morning. The coming week looks to be mild and nicer.
Sat 11/14: Clouds with light drizzle or light spotty showers in the morning, dry but still mostly cloudy in the afternoon; some bright spots possible. Mild. High 60
Sun 11/15 Mostly cloudy early, then partly cloudy/partly sunny by afternoon. High 67
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 14 2009 at 8:48 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Fri, 13 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri PM
The coastal low will gradually weaken as it moves slowly away on Saturday. Winds will diminish and there will be less of a chance of showers and drizzle. A weak front moves through Sunday morning.
Sat 11/14: Clouds with light drizzle or light spotty showers mostly in the morning, mostly dry but still mostly cloudy in the afternoon; some bright spots possible. Mild. High 60
Sun 11/15 Mostly cloudy early, then partly cloudy/partly sunny by afternoon. High 67
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 13 2009 at 7:42 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Wed, 11 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook-Wed PM
The GFS has done very well in predicting the cloudiness and light rain for today. Assuming continued accuracy, an easterly flow from a coastal low to our southeast and high pressure to our northeast will keep damp and cool temps through Saturday. Things clear out for Sunday. Still not the highest confidence forecast, but the GFS model seems to be doing well.
Sat 11/14: Clouds with light drizzle or spotty showers. High 58 (medium confidence forecast)
Sun 11/15 Mostly sunny and milder. High 65. (medium confidence forecast)
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 11 2009 at 5:47 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Tue, 10 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook-Tues AM
There remain significant differences in the computer models for the track of tropical storm Ida's moisture once it comes inland.
It's clear that tropical storm Ida will not directly affect our area. However, it's less clear what happens to the moisture once Ida moves inland and becomes 'extratropical'. Most of the models keep the moisture track suppressed to our south, along with most of the rain. Some moisture may move in to our area on Wednesday. After that time, there's much uncertainty about whether the moisture spawns another low off the coast or near the coastline. While the coming weekend was looking to be very nice, this uncertainty in the development of another low, along with a possible easterly flow may give us a damp day on Saturday and even Sunday. This is an unusually low confidence forecast. Expect changes.
Sat 11/14: Tentative: Some clouds. Possibly some drizzle. High 58 (Low confidence forecast)
Sun 11/15 Partly cloudy and milder. High 65. (Low confidence forecast)
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 10 2009 at 10:22 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Mon, 09 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook-Mon PM
There remain significant differences in the computer models for the track of tropical storm Ida once it comes inland.
Most of the computer models (and there are several tropical storm models) keep the moisture and storm well to our south, suppressed to South Carolina. The Navy NOGAPS model, a favorite for storm prediction in terms of land fall point, keeps the moisture to our south as well. The GFS model continues to move the moisture up to our area, suppressed just to the south of Philadelphia. There is still too much uncertainty with the track of this moisture to make a call, but the trend is to remain south of us at this time. Stay tuned.
Next weekend also looks good at this time, although a colder pattern is in store for the week following.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 09 2009 at 7:20 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Sun, 08 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook-Sun PM
Amazing how quickly the forecast for the upcoming week has changed. Several days ago, we just had a frontal system affecting us on Wednesday. Now, tropical storm Ida is expected to move into the Gulf states and move northward.
There are significant differences in the model tracks, once the storm moves inland. The GFS has a very stormy time for us on Wednesday through Thursday, as the storm stimulates an extratropical system to form just south of us. The Navy NOGAPS and several hurricane models has the hurricane's moisture suppressed far to our south, possibly making a large curve into the Atlantic near SC. Much uncertainty, but the operational GFS model (calling for heavy rain here on Wed) is the outlier. Stay tuned.
Next weekend also looks good at this time, although a colder pattern is in store for the week following.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 08 2009 at 8:17 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Sun AM
Today will be a beautiful day, with mild temps and sunshine. The outlook for the current week has changed as the remnants of a tropical storm will move up through the Gulf states and redevelop a coastal low off the mid atlantic coast. We'll have very wet weather from late Tuesday night through Thursday. Temps remain on the mild side, despite the rains. Next weekend also looks good at this time, although a colder pattern is in store for the week following.
Sun 11/8 Sunny and very pleasant. Milder. High 65.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 08 2009 at 8:38 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Fri, 06 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
High pressure will move off the coast, allowing a return flow of milder air for this weekend. The upcoming weekend looks very nice and is a high confidence forecast. For the coming week, milder weather continues into next weekend. The very long range is for things to get cold and stormy in two weeks.
Sat 11/7: Partly to mostly sunny, a bit cool and pleasant. High 55.
Sun 11/8 Sunny and very pleasant. Milder. High 65.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 06 2009 at 5:55 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Wed, 04 Nov 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Wed PM
A small short wave in the upper trough is bringing clouds and light showers tonight. More cold air for Thurs and Friday, before high pressure moves off the coast, allowing a return flow of milder air for the weekend. The weekend looks very nice and is a high confidence forecast.
Sat 11/7: Partly to mostly sunny, somewhat cool and pleasant. High 55.
Sun 11/8 Sunny and very pleasant. Milder. High 65.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 04 2009 at 5:36 pm
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Tue, 03 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook
A winter-like upper trough will make a brief appearance this week, giving us cold weather. The upper trough fades into the weekend, with milder temps taking over. High pressure will control the weather.
Sat 11/7: Partly to mostly sunny, cool and pleasant. High 57.
Sun 11/8 Sunny and very pleasant. Milder. High 64.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 03 2009 at 8:05 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Sun, 01 Nov 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Update- Sun AM
As anticipated, the low confidence forecast translated into having the position of the stalled front is further north than was originally predicted. Hence, the clouds and rain.
Moisture and rain continues to stream up just to the south of Philadelphia, with occasional light precip making it further north and east.
Last night's models have readjusted the clearing time frame to this afternoon, after 1 PM with a good chance of showers before that time. While the 1PM time frame for clearing appears reasonable, any unexpected development along the stalled front could bomb out this forecast too.
Sun 11/1: Cloudy with light showers before 1 PM, then partial clearing, with some sun possible. (Areas in Delaware and Southern NJ may continue to have rain all day.) This remains a low-confidence forecast. High 58.
Read my most recent Fall-Winter Climate prediction here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Nov 01 2009 at 9:45 am
[/weather/nov09] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.