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Miscellaneous
Tue, 31 Oct 2006
Week Weather Outlook- Tues AM
An upper northwesterly flow will dominate the weather pattern for the week, once a front moves through on Wednesday.
Increasing cool/colder temperatures will evident over the weekend. The NOGAPS and the GFS are now together in keeping any storm development offshore.
Sat 11/4: Sunny, breezy and cool. High 51.
Sun 11/5: Mostly sunny, some clouds. High 50.
posted: Oct 31 2006 at 7:39 am
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Mon, 30 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Mon PM
An upper northwesterly flow will dominate the weather pattern for the week, once a front moves through on Wednesday.
Increasing cool/colder temperatures will evident over the weekend. The NOGAPS and the GFS are now together in keeping any storm development offshore.
As a result, the preliminary outlook for the weekend is fair skies and cool/cold temperatures.
posted: Oct 30 2006 at 7:20 pm
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Sun, 29 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook
The low pressure system that gave us the rain and then the winds will move away. Things will warm up for Monday and Tuesday!
A front will move through on Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures. High pressure will build in for Wednesday and Thursday, giving nice weather but cool.
Big differences for Friday and the weekend between the NOGAPS and the GFS. The NOGAPS has rain for Friday while the GFS keeps us clear and dry. The NOGAPS also has an upper trough over us for the weekend, bringing cold and somewhat unsettled conditions. The NOGAPS model did better the last time we had these differences. I'll update during the week.
posted: Oct 29 2006 at 7:22 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast - Sun AM
The winds continue today, with gusts as high as 40mph, especially between 10 AM and 3PM. Low level moisture.
Sun 10/29: A mix of clouds and sun. Continued very windy with gusts up to 40mph. High 55.
There's a big warmup for Monday and Tuesday.
For the balance of the upcoming week, an upper trough moves in on Wednesday with some clouds. Cool/cold and unsettled conditions with possible rain on Friday...colder through next Saturday.
posted: Oct 29 2006 at 7:58 am
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Sat, 28 Oct 2006Weekend Weather Forecast - Sat Update
Significant deepening of the storm as it departs with high pressure building in will create pressure gradient resulting in very windy conditions.
Latest models have winds at their highest this evening and tonight with average speeds around 30mph.
The wind gusts in the models are only in the 35-40 mph range. I think the weather service and Accuweather may be hyping the extreme wind conditions. It WILL be very windy, but I don't think it will be as bad as the news is hyping.
Sat 10/28: Some sun breaks through between noon and 2PM, but considerable cloudiness will still be with us. Windy! High 60 falling into the 40s later in the day and into the 30s at night.
Sun 10/29: A mix of clouds and sun in the morning. Increased cloudiness in the afternoon. Continued windy. High 52.
There's a big warmup for Monday and Tuesday.
posted: Oct 28 2006 at 11:29 am
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Weekend Weather Forecast - Sat AM
The rain will be ending shortly, as the back edge moves up from the south.
Significant deepening of the storm as it departs with high pressure building in will create pressure gradient resulting in very windy conditions. The wind gusts in the models are only in the 35 mph range. I think the weather service and Accuweather may be hyping the extreme wind conditions. It WILL be very windy, but I don't think it will be as bad as the news is hyping.
Sat 10/28: Heavy rain ends early this morning. Some sun breaks through between noon and 2PM, but considerable cloudiness will still be with us. Windy! High 60 falling into the 40s later Saturday eve.
Sun 10/29: A mix of clouds and sun in the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. Continued windy. High 52.
There's a big warmup for Monday and Tuesday.
posted: Oct 28 2006 at 7:50 am
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Fri, 27 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Fri PM
The heavy rain event that's been predicted by the GFS and NAM for several days is upon us.
Both models show about 2 inches of rain falling over the next 15 hours, with the heaviest rains between 2AM and 8AM Saturday. Highest winds during the rain will be the early morning hours.
Temperatures will be warmer in the morning (58) on Saturday. Colder air rushes in after the rain ends with winds picking up again later in the day Saturday as the low intensifies and moves away.
Sat 10/28: Heavy rain early tapers to showers, ending between 10AM and noon. Sun breaks through between noon and 2PM. Becoming very windy and chilly. High 58 falling into the 40s later Saturday.
Sun 10/29: Some sun in the morning but afternoon cloudiness likely. Very windy. High 52.
There's a big warmup for Monday and Tuesday.
posted: Oct 27 2006 at 6:57 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Fri AM
The heavy rain event that's been predicted by the GFS and NAM for several days is still shaping up for our area tonight into Saturday morning.
A strong low will move into our area and intensify over us Friday night. Clouds increase during the day on Friday, with rain Friday night beginning about 5-8PM ending Saturday morning between 10AM and 2PM. The NAM has about 2.5 inches of rain and the GFS has about 2 inches of rain falling during the storm.
Temperatures will be warmer in the morning (58) on Saturday. Cold air rushes in after the rain ends with high winds.
Sat 10/28: Rain tapers to showers, ending between 10AM and 2 PM. Sun breaks through in the mid to late afternoon. Becoming very windy and chilly. High 58 falling into the 40s late Saturday.
Sun 10/29: Some sun in the morning but afternoon cloudiness likely. Continued windy. High 50.
posted: Oct 27 2006 at 6:22 am
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Thu, 26 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Thurs AM
A nice day today (Thurs), with sunshine and moderating temperatures.
A strong low approaches Friday. Sun in the morning on Friday, clouds increase during the early afternoon on Friday, with heavy rain Friday night beginning about 6-9PM ending Saturday morning between 10AM and 1PM. The trend has been for the rain to start later on Friday and to linger longer into Saturday, but the last few model runs have been consisent with these times.
Cold air rushes in Saturday afternoon through Sunday, with high winds. Warmer air returns for Halloween.
Sat 10/28: Rain tapers to showers, ending between 10AM and 1 PM. Sun breaks through in the mid to late afternoon. Becoming very windy and chilly. High 50.
Sun 10/29: Some sun in the morning but afternoon cloudiness likely. Continued windy. High 50.
posted: Oct 26 2006 at 7:25 am
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Wed, 25 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Thursday should be a nice day, with sunshine and moderating temperatures.
A strong low approaches Friday. Clouds increase during the early afternoon on Friday, with rain, likely heavy, Friday night ending Saturday morning. The trend has been for the rain to start later on Friday and to linger longer into Saturday.
Sat 10/28: Rain tapers to showers, about noon. (The trend continues with the rain lingering later in the day.) Windy and chilly. High 50.
Sun 10/29: Some sun in the morning but afternoon cloudiness likely. Continued very windy. High 50.
posted: Oct 25 2006 at 6:06 pm
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Tue, 24 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Tues PM
The cold flow will abate somewhat for the next few days before a low pressure system bring rain Friday night into early Saturday morning.
For Wednesday, more sunshine, but some cloudiness will again creep in during the afternoon hours. Thursday should have more sunshine.
A strong low approaches Friday. Clouds increase during the early afternoon on Friday, with rain, likely heavy, Friday night ending Saturday morning. Continued slow clearing and unsettled on Saturday with windy conditions. Things may calm down on Sunday.
Sat 10/28: Rain tapers to showers, then ending during the morning. Exact timing isn't clear but the trend has been towards later in the day. Windy and chilly. High 53.
Sun 10/29: Mostly sunny in the morning, but afternoon cloudiness likely. Continued windy. High 50.
posted: Oct 24 2006 at 8:02 pm
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Mon, 23 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Mon PM
The cold flow continues into Wednesday. Considerable moisture at 5000 feet and 10000 feet will result show itself in more clouds again for Tuesday. Some breaks of sun possible in the afternoon, similar to today.
The weekend is looking iffy, especially Saturday, where a strong upper cyclonic flow may bring unsettled weather- clouds and even showers to our area. Too early to be sure.
posted: Oct 23 2006 at 7:57 pm
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Week Weather Outlook
An upper cold flow will affect us through much of the week until a frontal system gives us showers on Friday. More cool/cold weather for the weekend.
For today, Monday, some low level clouds will develop, similar to yesterday, with breaks of sun and clouds at times. Winds will be gusty.
Tuesday will see the development of slightly more clouds due to cold air aloft. Otherwise dry.
posted: Oct 23 2006 at 6:35 am
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Sun, 22 Oct 2006Weekend Weather- Sun AM
An approaching frontal system will bring clouds by 2 PM and a chance of very light showers (less than 0.06 inches water) starting sometime between 5-7 PM.
A very brisk flow of cold air will follow the front and will keep things cool for much of the week. Temperatures will only be in the 50s for much of the week. Next chance of rain is Friday.
Sun 10/22: Some sun early, then increasing clouds by noon. Light showers possible starting sometime between 5 and 7 PM. High 61.
posted: Oct 22 2006 at 7:45 am
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Sat, 21 Oct 2006Weekend Weather- Sat AM
A northwesterly flow for Saturday will give us beautiful weather, althought cold air aloft will result in signficant puffy stratocumulus clouds Saturday afternoon. High pressure will depart on Sunday as another front approaches, giving us showers. Latest GFS has these showers very light, as there isn't much moisture with this front.
Sat 10/21: Sunny and seasonably cool. Some puffy fair weather clouds in the afternoon. High 61.
Sun 10/22: Some sun early, then increasing clouds by noon, light showers possible starting sometime between 3 and 6 PM. High 62.
posted: Oct 21 2006 at 8:30 am
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Fri, 20 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Fri PM
A northwesterly flow for Saturday will give us beautiful weather. (The upper air disturbance previously predicted for the afternoon has disappeared from the model forecast.)
An approaching frontal system on Sunday will bring clouds and the chance of showers later Sunday afternoon.
Sat 10/21: Sunny and seasonably cool. Some puffy fair weather clouds in the afternoon. High 61.
Sun 10/22: Some sun early, then increasing clouds by noon, showers starting sometime between 3 and 6 PM. High 62.
posted: Oct 20 2006 at 9:19 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Fri AM
The rain will be out of here in a few hours, but gusty winds (30 mph) will develop around noon and peak later this afternoon as cooler air filters in.
Northwesterly flow for Saturday, with an imbedded disturbance of spin (vorticity) will give us some clouds in the afternoon. Approaching frontal system on Sunday will bring clouds and the chance of showers later Sunday afternoon. Exact timing for showers uncertain right now.
Sat 10/21: Sunny and seasonably cool in the morning. Some cloudiness during the afternoon as an upper disturbance moves through. High 62.
Sun 10/22: Some sun early, then increasing clouds by the afternoon, showers late afternoon. High 63.
posted: Oct 20 2006 at 7:20 am
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Thu, 19 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring rain overnight, with some remaining showers Friday morning, before windy clearing conditions. Sun in the afternoon.
High pressure builds in on Saturday and remains for much of the weekend before a strong cold front brings showers Sunday night.
Colder weather again for late Monday into Wednesday of next week.
Sat 10/21: Sunny and seasonably cool. Nice. Some cloudiness during the afternoon. High 61.
Sun 10/22: Some sun early, then increasing clouds by the afternoon, possible light showers late afternoon. High 63.
posted: Oct 19 2006 at 12:16 pm
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Wed, 18 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Another low pressure system approaches on Friday, then high pressure builds in for the first part of the weekend. Another low pressure system approaches late Sunday.
Thursday should be somewhat similar to today. The sun will be trying to break through some low level moisture. Perhaps it will be more successful on Thursday.
Friday looks cloudy in the morning, with a chance of very light showers. Some clearing in the afternoon.
Sat 10/21: Some middle level clouds early morning, then mostly sunny. High 62.
Sun 10/22: Some sun early, then increasing clouds during the day, possible showers late. High 60.
posted: Oct 18 2006 at 5:48 pm
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Tue, 17 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Tuesday
Rain will move in from the southwest today as a strong, moist system brings us about 1 inch of rain, mostly this afternoon and this evening. Gradual clearing on Wednesday with mild temps. Clouds increase on Thursday with rain at night. Clearing during the day on Friday, after some early morning remaining showers.
Sat 10/21: Sunny, crisp and cool. High 60.
Sun 10/22: Sunny in the early morning, increasing clouds during the day, possible showers late. High 60.
posted: Oct 17 2006 at 7:29 am
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Sun, 15 Oct 2006Weekend Weather Forecast - Sun AM
No change from yesterday's forecast. High pressure will remain in control through Monday. A return flow of warm air aloft may bring in a few middle/high clouds during the afternoon today.
More seasonable temperatures expected by Monday. The next big changes are for Tuesday, where low pressure will bring rain by Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Things clear out on Wednesday and Thursday and another deep cold front will bring rain on Friday.
Next weekend looks similar to this weekend. Sunny skies, windy and chilly.
Sun 10/15: Sunny and a bit warmer. A bit of middle level/high clouds during the late afternoon, hardly noticeable. High in the low 60s.
posted: Oct 15 2006 at 8:27 am
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Sat, 14 Oct 2006Weekend Weather Forecast - Sat AM
No change from yesterday's forecast. High pressure will build in over the weekend. A return flow of warm air aloft may bring in some middle/high clouds during the afternoon on Sunday.
Sat 10/14: Sunny and crisp. High in the low 60s.
Sun 10/15: Sunny and a bit warmer. A bit of middle level/high clouds during the late afternoon. High in the low 60s.
posted: Oct 14 2006 at 8:22 am
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Fri, 13 Oct 2006Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
High pressure will build in over the weekend. A return flow of warm air aloft may bring in some middle/high clouds during the afternoon on Sunday.
Sat 10/14: Sunny and crisp. High in the low 60s.
Sun 10/15: Sunny and a bit warmer. A bit of middle level/high clouds during the late afternoon. High in the low 60s.
posted: Oct 13 2006 at 7:31 am
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Thu, 12 Oct 2006Weekend Weather Forecast - Thurs PM
A cold front will move through this evening. Friday through Sunday will be much cooler than normal, although the extreme changes originally forecast disappeared from the models a few days ago. High pressure will build in over the weekend.
Sat 10/14: Sunny and crisp. High in the low 60s.
Sun 10/15: Sunny and a bit warmer. Some high cloudiness moves in during the late afternoon. High in the mid 60s.
posted: Oct 12 2006 at 6:41 pm
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Wed, 11 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook-Forecast Change- Wed AM
The dramatic change predicted for Friday and the weekend is looking much less dramatic, as the latest models do not dip the jet stream as far south as they had been showing previously.
Instead, a cool, chilly airmass will move into our area Thursday night, preceded by light showers on Thursday night.
The strong winds previously expected and very cold temperatures will not materialize.
Friday will be the coolest day, with temperatures in the 50s.
Saturday and Sunday will be crisp and cool, quite nice actually, with highs near 60. Winds will NOT be a problem.
There will be some increase in clouds during the afternoon on Sunday.
posted: Oct 11 2006 at 5:55 am
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Mon, 09 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Mon PM
The dramatic weather change expected from Thursday night through Sunday is on it's way, according to the GFS and NOGAPS models.
An extremely deep storm in southern Canada will bring unusually cold air to our area Thursday night. With the cold frontal passage, there's a good chance of SNOW showers late Thursday into Friday morning, especially in the northern and western suburbs.
Thursday afternoon may be quite stormy with strong winds and a rapid drop in temperatures will make us feel that we went from summer directly to winter.
On Friday, temperatures may not get much higher than 47-50 degrees and will likely go near freezing Friday night. It will likely remain cold on Saturday, and I think the model statistics are showing it too warm. Frost on the pumpkin and maybe a freeze Friday night or Saturday night.
Saturday and Sunday will likely be cold with winds diminishing late Saturday. Increasing clouds on Sunday afternoon, but dry both days.
posted: Oct 09 2006 at 6:38 pm
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Sun, 08 Oct 2006Week Weather Outlook- Sun PM
Beautiful weather today will continue for the next couple of days.
A significant, anomolous weather pattern, more typical of a stormy March instead of a dry, tranquil October, will develop from Thursday through the weekend. While not likely, the forecast maps suggest the possibility of wet snow flurries Friday morning! And next Friday through Saturday will be unusually cold and windy.
The extended (GFSX) model forecasts a stormy and cold pattern which might continue, with some breaks, for the next two weeks.
Should this pattern continue, a stormy winter will be in store for us.
posted: Oct 08 2006 at 5:55 pm
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Sat, 07 Oct 2006Weekend Forecast Update- Sat PM
While it looked like the sun might break out in the mid morning, the clouds and low level cirulation around the closed upper low remained with us for today.
For Sunday, the GFS has a considerable sunshine, the NAM is a bit slower to clear us out. Most of Sunday will be very nice fall weather, with temps in the low 70s.
The medium/long range GFS model has been advertising an EXTREME, deep, winter-like trough for us next weekend. This deep trough, with exceptionally cold air, has been consistently pointed to by the GFS for the past week! Unsettled weather is expected for the end of the week, as the trough approaches. Next weekend's weather will be colder...it's not clear if it will be stormy.
Sun 10/8: Following some very early morning clouds, becoming mostly sunny and very pleasant. High 76.
posted: Oct 07 2006 at 6:22 pm
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Forecast Update- Sat AM
The difficulties predicting the formation and movement of upper closed lows is evident this morning, as a strong northeasterly flow and upsloping (lifting due orographic differences from the coastal plain to ridges of Montco and Bucks county) is manifesting itself this morning. Light showers/drizzle is scattered around our area.
It's not clear if the models are getting the details right today. Last night's models now show considerable moisture/clouds through much of the afternoon today. Not too sure if we'll see sun now, although brightening skies certainly a possibility.
If the upper air low fails to move as far south as currently forecast by the models, clouds, wind and drizzle will remain with us longer today. We can't count on the models to be highly reliable with upper closed lows, especially when they're predicting an unusual movement to the south.
Sat 10/7:Light drizzle/scattered showers this morning, ending earlier in the northern and western suburbs. Brightening skies early afternoon, although not sure if sun will break out now High 65.
Sun 10/8: Mostly sunny and very pleasant. High 76.
posted: Oct 07 2006 at 7:10 am
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Fri, 06 Oct 2006Improving Weather.... Fri PM
The NAM-WRF is much drier for Saturday than the GFS and looking at radar, the WRF is doing better forecasting this closed low.
Much of Saturday will be dry, after some early drizzle, especially in southern areas. The sun should break out in the afternoon, although some clouds will still be around
Sat 10/7:Light drizzle early morning, ending earlier in the northern and western suburbs. Most of the day dry. Sun breaking out by early afternoon, although some clouds still around. High 67.
Sun 10/8: Sunny and very pleasant. High 76.
posted: Oct 06 2006 at 6:58 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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