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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Sun, 31 Aug 2008
Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Weather Forecast- Sun PM
A very warm (OK, hot for September) airmass will move in and control our weather for the next several days. Temps near 90 will feel hot, although dewpoints will be in the comfortable 50s.
Hurricane Gustav continues to move towards Louisianna and will likely hit the coastline just west of New Orleans Monday about noontime. The storm's intensity at landfall is somewhat uncertain, with unexpected weakening having occurred last night as it passed over the end of Cuba. The various computer models are in fairly close agreement with the path of the storm, but there is uncertainty whether it will be a category 3,4 or 5 upon landfall. New Orleans will be in the northeast quadrant, where the most dangerous winds will occur.
Mon 9/1: Sunny and continued dry and hot. High 87.
posted: Aug 31 2008 at 10:28 pm
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Sat, 30 Aug 2008Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM
A very warm (OK, hot for September) airmass will move in and control our weather for the next several days. Temps near 90 will feel hot, although dewpoints will be in the comfortable 50s.
Hurricane Gustav continues to move towards Louisianna and will likely hit the coastline just west of New Orleans Monday afternoon or early evening. This is a large and dangerous hurricane, and will likely approach Category 5. The various computer models are in fairly close agreement with the path, track and intensity of this storm. New Orleans will be in the northeast quadrant, where the most dangerous winds will occur. The best hope, supported by the models, is that the center will be about 50-100 miles west of the city.
Sun 8/31: Mostly sunny, hot and less humid than today. High 89.
Mon 9/1: Sunny and continued dry and hot. High 89.
posted: Aug 30 2008 at 10:35 pm
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Fri, 29 Aug 2008Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Sun 8/31: Mostly sunny, very warm and less humid. High 87.
A disturbance preceeding a frontal boundary is trying to bring some precipitation to our area, and some areas will see a shower this afternoon. The frontal boundary moves through on Saturday and while there will be clouds in the morning, some sun is expected in the afternoon. For the balance of the weekend, Sunday and Monday look dry, sunny and very warm, although dewpoints will be the comfortable 50s.
Hurricane Gustav will move towards Louisianna on Monday. The high pressure system over our region may block northward movement, keeping the storm for a prolonged period along the Gulf coastline.
Sat 8/30: Cloudy in the morning with a slight chance of a scattered shower. Sun breaks through in the afternoon to give us partly sunny skies. High 84.
posted: Aug 29 2008 at 2:38 pm
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Thu, 28 Aug 2008Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
Sun 8/31: Mostly sunny, very warm and less humid. High 86.
Heavy rains in central PA (remnants of Fay) today have stayed to our west, just as predicted by the GFS earlier in the week. Our area stays fairly dry, as the upper dynamics keeps things somewhat cloudy but dry. A front slips through on Saturday afternoon, bringing the slight chance of a shower. Warm high pressure builds in for dry and mostly sunny weather for Sunday and Monday.
Hurricane Gustav will move towards Louisianna on Monday. The high pressure system over our region may block northward movement, keeping the storm for a prolonged period along the Gulf coastline.
Sat 8/30: A mix of clouds and sun. Warm, humid. Chance of a late afternoon scattered shower or thundershower. High 84.
posted: Aug 28 2008 at 5:21 pm
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Wed, 27 Aug 2008Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Sun 8/31: Sunny, hot and less humid. High 89.
The latest models have strong high pressure maintaining warm and dry conditions over the Labor Day weekend. Best chances of showers will be Friday night. While there are some small upper impulses that might bring a chance of a scattered shower Saturday afternoon, the weekend currently looks overall very warm and dry.
Hurricane Gustav will move towards Louisianna on Monday. The high pressure system over our region may block northward movement, keeping the storm for a prolonged period along the Gulf coastline. Tropical storms tend to throw off the models. I'll keep an eye on it.
Sat 8/30: Tentative: Mostly sunny and very warm, humid. Chance of a late afternoon scattered shower. High 87.
posted: Aug 27 2008 at 8:10 pm
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Tue, 26 Aug 2008Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues PM
The remnants of Fay are expected to fall apart to our west over the next few days. An upper trough will drop south over us late Friday and bring some clouds and showers. High pressure will try to build in over the weekend, but it is possible that an easterly flow around the high to our north may bring cool and somewhat mix of clouds at times.
Hurricane Gustav will move towards Louisianna on Monday. Any tropical storm often throws off the models. Will watch.
posted: Aug 26 2008 at 9:12 pm
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Fri, 22 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
High pressure that has brought us beautiful weather should continue for the coming weekend. As we get into a southerwesterly flow around the high, more humidity and haze will creep back in.
Sat 8/23: Sunny with a few scattered clouds. High 85.
Sun 8/24: Sunny with a few scattered clouds. More humid. High 87.
posted: Aug 22 2008 at 3:47 pm
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Tue, 19 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues PM
One of the few times the GFS has done better than the NOGAPS was today when the GFS accurately predicted the tropical storm to move over FL.
The GFS still has the storm moving across FL into the Atlantic, then redevelops and then moves back over FL into the Gulf. Earlier today, I thought this was hard to believe, but so far, it has happened. The NOGAPS has joined the GFS, but keeps the storm further inland without redevelopment in the Atlantic.
Both show the storm back in the Gulf of Mexico and redeveloping.
Since there is so much uncertainty about the movement of Fay, our upcoming weekend forecast is somewhat uncertain, although the models have it dry and nice here. Stay tuned.
posted: Aug 19 2008 at 8:37 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues AM
Our weather this weekend may depend on the track of the remnants of Tropical storm Fay. I will tell you that there are BIG differences in the models-
The NOGAPS (my preferred model for tropical systems) has Fay moving up the western FL coastline and inland over the FL panhandle and having the moisture brought into our region (actually western PA/OH) over the weekend. HOWEVER, the GFS and NAM have more interesting scenarios where Fay moves across FL into the Atlantic, redevelops and then moves back over FL into the Gulph. Whew, that one is hard to believe! But anything is possible.
Since there is so much uncertainty about the movement of Fay, our upcoming weekend forecast is equally uncertain. Stay tuned.
posted: Aug 19 2008 at 7:32 am
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Sun, 17 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sun AM
High pressure will bring nice weather to us today. Increasing humidity will be with us on Monday. (High temperatures yesterday were lower than predicted by the models.)
Tropical storm Fay will be a hurricane and will likely pass offshore of western FL next Tues and Wed. The FL keys awill be affected, but the FL west coast will likely be spared of the highest winds due to a more westerly track.
Sun 8/17: Sunny and pleasant. High 85.
posted: Aug 17 2008 at 8:46 am
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Sat, 16 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
Sun 8/10: Mostly sunny and very warm. High 88.
High pressure builds in from the west this weekend. Increasing temperatures expected over the next few days.
Tropical storm Fay will be a hurricane and likely affect western Fl next Tues and Wed.
Sat 8/9: Sunny and warm. Low humidity. High 85.
posted: Aug 16 2008 at 7:49 am
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Fri, 15 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri
Sun 8/10: Mostly sunny. High 88.
High pressure builds in from the west this weekend. While there may be some instability on Saturday, with causing development of a widely scattered thunderstorm in the afternoon, the weekend will be very nice. T
A developing tropical system will move towards Cuba and FL over the weekend.
Sat 8/9: Increasing sun through the day. Very slight chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm in the afternoon. Essentially dry, though. High 85.
posted: Aug 15 2008 at 11:23 am
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Wed, 13 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed
Sun 8/10: Mostly sunny. High 88.
A lingering upper level trough will bring unsettled weather for Thurs and Fri. The trough will lift away over the weekend, as high pressure builds in from the west. The latest models support a nice upcoming weekend.
A developing tropical system will move towards Cuba and FL over the weekend.
Sat 8/9: Partly to mostly sunny. High 85.
posted: Aug 13 2008 at 9:01 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed
Sun 8/10: Tentative: Partly sunny/partly cloudy. High 88.
A lingering upper level trough will bring unsettled weather for Thurs and Fri. The trough will lift away over the weekend, as high pressure builds in from the west. A weak pattern giving us generally sunny skies is expected for the weekend.
A developing tropical system will move towards Cuba and FL over the weekend.
Sat 8/9: Tentative: Partly sunny/partly cloudy . High 88.
posted: Aug 13 2008 at 7:42 am
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Tue, 12 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues AM
A stalled frontal boundary is predicted to be to our south over the weekend. Disturbances may form and move east along the front. Currently, the models have these disturbances staying to our south, keeping us dry. Any change in the position of this boundary will affect our weather. I'll keep an eye on it.
posted: Aug 12 2008 at 8:52 am
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Sun, 10 Aug 2008Update- Sun AM
Thunderstorms are developing just to our south and moving north at 11 AM today. Showers and thunderstorms will be here by noon if not earlier.
Sun 8/10: Sun in the morning, showers and thunderstorms develop and move over us during late morning into afternoon; some of these storms will be heavy. High 79.
posted: Aug 10 2008 at 10:59 am
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather - Sun AM Update
The experimental high resolution NAM model (very reliable for thunderstorm prediction lately) has some very intense thunderstorms developing to our west about 2 PM and moving slowly through Philadelphia between 3 and 6 PM. Heavy rains and gusty winds expected. The intensity and slowness may result in small areas of flooding.
The expected storms will be the result of an upper air disturbance rotating around a closed upper low that will be passing to our north. The more sun we get this morning, the stronger the storms will be later. (The GFS has much of the activity later this evening; I'm going with the NAM model here.)
Sun 8/10: Sun in the morning, showers and thunderstorms develop to our west and move through between 3-6 PM; some of these storms will be heavy. High 83.
posted: Aug 10 2008 at 8:51 am
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Sat, 09 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weather - Forecast Change
Earlier this week, I mentioned that the deep trough that would bring cooler weather might also bring a closed low. High levels of instability will result tomorrow, as a closed low developing will be over us. The latest NAM has this closed low crossing our area on Sunday with fairly wet weather- showers and thunderstorms likely for Sunday.
Sun 8/10: Some sun in the morning, showers and thunderstorms develop by early afternoon, some of these showers may be heavy. High 83.
posted: Aug 09 2008 at 6:19 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat
Sun 8/10: Sunny in the morning; more clouds in the afternoon with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms towards evening. High 82-87.
Cooler air associated with an upper trough has moved in, as expected. Also theorized was the development of a closed low- the models do show such a low forming and moving through our area later Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop during the afternoon Sunday; the NAM has showers continuing through Sunday night, some heavy.
Cool air aloft will result in billowy clouds Saturday afternoon. No showers expected here. Big range in the high temperatures between the NAM and GFS models.
Sat 8/9: Mostly sunny. A few clouds in the afternoon. High 81-86.
posted: Aug 09 2008 at 8:29 am
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Thu, 07 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Thur
Sun 8/10: Partly sunny/partly cloudy. High 83.
A pattern change for this coming weekend, as a deep upper air trough develops over us on Saturday into Sunday. Cooler temperatures are certain. But, there is a possibility that a closed low will develop- both the NAM and GFS keep this feature to our north.
It remains to be seen how much instability and clouds develop with the trough. The models have it fairly sunny and dry.
Sat 8/9: Partly sunny/partly cloudy . High 82.
posted: Aug 07 2008 at 6:44 am
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Wed, 06 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed
Sun 8/10: Tentative: Partly sunny/partly cloudy. High 80.
A pattern change for this coming weekend, as a deep upper air trough develops over us on Saturday into Sunday. Cooler temperatures are certain. But, there is a possibility that a closed low will develop- should that be the case, the specifics of the weekend forecast may be difficult to pin down.
Instability from the cold air aloft and embedded disturbances will result in showers and changeable weather for Saturday and maybe Sunday as well. Currently, the models have us dry for both days.
Sat 8/9: Tentative: Partly sunny/partly cloudy . High 80.
posted: Aug 06 2008 at 7:38 pm
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Tue, 05 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues
Sun 8/10: More sun than clouds. High 85.
Thunderstorms later this afternoon/early evening are a good bet today
An upper air trough develops over us on Saturday into Sunday. Instability from the cold air aloft and embedded disturbances will result in showers and changeable weather for Saturday and maybe Sunday as well.
Sat 8/9: Tentative: Partly sunny/partly cloudy with a good chance of showers. High 83
posted: Aug 05 2008 at 9:11 am
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Sat, 02 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weather Forecast Update- Sat PM
Well, apparently the storms that went through early today WERE the only storms. While things looked like they would get going in the afternoon, no storms made it into the Philadelphia area. The NAM model did better than the GFS today. The front has moved through and somewhat cooler and drier weather is in store for us on for Sunday.
Sun 8/3: Sunny and less humid. High 83.
posted: Aug 02 2008 at 9:45 pm
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When's the Rain?-Sat Update
Sun 8/3: Sunny and less humid. High 88.
Trying to pin down the rain for today. An impulse with developing showers and thunderstorms went through about 8 AM this morning- this impulse was actually predicted by the experimental NAM for noontime, so was this 'early' or is the main one still coming? The question remains when will it rain during the day today? The NAM continues with a mid-day thundershower while the GFS has thunderstorms more towards the late afternoon.Looking at the current maps, there's additional voriticity maxima (disturbances) rotating through Pittsburgh now and should be here later afternoon. Instability is considerable to our west and that should also move forward. The bottom line is that we're not done with the showers. Expect more to develop and move through, most likely between 12 and 5 PM. If we get some sun breaking through, the storms will be even more intense.
Sat 8/2: Mostly cloudy (some sunny breaks possible) with showers and thunderstorms in the morning again likely between 12-5 PM. Fairly humid. High 89.
posted: Aug 02 2008 at 9:41 am
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Fri, 01 Aug 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri Update
Sun 8/3: Sunny and less humid. High 88.
Today's GFS and NAM models have come together with clouds, showers and thundershowers for Saturday, mostly in the morning and early afternoon as a frontal boundary and weak disturbance pass through. The NAM is much wetter than the GFS for Sunday.
Sat 8/2: Mostly cloudy (some sunny breaks possible) with showers and thunderstorms in the morning into early afternoon. Some clearing likely later in the afternoon. Fairly humid. High 89.
posted: Aug 01 2008 at 2:54 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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