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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Fri, 27 Jul 2012
Philly Weekend Weather Update -Fri PM
The latest NAM model has a weak front moving through on Saturday with showers and thinderstorms late morning and afternoon.

Sat 7/28: Mostly cloudy and warm with showers and thunderstorms.. High 87.
Sun 7/29: Partly sunny and very warm. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms late. High 89.

posted: Jul 27 2012 at 10:54 pm

[/weather/jul12] permanent link

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A weak frontal boundary has slipped south of us into Virginia this morning, and a west to northwesterly flow of very warm but less humid air should filter in later today and on Saturday. The front may start to move north as a warm front on Monday.

Sat 7/28: Mostly sunny and very warm. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible late afternoon. High 90.
Sun 7/29: Partly sunny and very warm. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms late. High 89.

posted: Jul 27 2012 at 9:01 am

[/weather/jul12] permanent link
Fri, 20 Jul 2012
Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A stalled frontal boundary will sink south on Saturday, allowing a northeast flow to partially clear skies. Temps will remain below normal. The front moves north as a warm front Saturday night, with clearing and warmer temps for Sunday.
Sat 7/21: Gradual clearing, partly cloudy by afternoon. High 81.
Sun 7/22: Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. High 87.

posted: Jul 20 2012 at 9:15 pm

[/weather/jul12] permanent link
Sun, 15 Jul 2012
Philly Weekend Weather Update -Sun AM
The forecast remains difficult to pin down regarding specifics of precipitation. Neither the GFS nor NAM model have been very accurate at predicting showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Timing and coverage of showers remains difficult
Current radar shows isolated showers moving through Chester and Delaware counties. The current short range GFS-LAMP forecast has high chance of showers and thunderstorms starting about 4 PM this afternoon. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) based ont the NAM has mch of the expected showers this morning. So go figure. An experimental 4 Km NAM nested model somewhat agrees with the GFS and GFS-LAMP forecast. So we'll go with light scattered showers this morning and then heavier thundershowers possible this afternoon after 4 PM.
Sun 7/15: Cloudy, very warm and humid. Some bright spots or sunny breaks possible mid-day. Widely scattered showers possible this morning. Thunderstorms likely this afternoon after 4 PM. High 88.

posted: Jul 15 2012 at 8:44 am

[/weather/jul12] permanent link
Sat, 14 Jul 2012
Philly Weekend Weather Update -Sat AM
A clearly difficult forecast this weekend, as neither the NAM nor the GFS has predicted the showers for this morning. Current radar suggests that a frontal boundary to our south had formed and is moving back as a warm front earlier than had been predicted.
Looking at current radar and the most recent run of the short range HRRR model, it appears that rain showers will be with us through 10 or 11 AM today and then should shift southward into Delaware for the afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are likely headed towards us later this afternoon and this evening.
Sat 7/14: Showers ending later in the morning. Perhaps some sunny breaks. Chance of thunderstorms late afternoon and continuing through the evening. Humid. High 85.
Sun 7/15: Cloudy, very warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the morning. Exact timing uncertain. High 91.

posted: Jul 14 2012 at 7:15 am

[/weather/jul12] permanent link
Fri, 13 Jul 2012
Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A southwesterly surface flow of increasing moist and unstable air will combine with weak upper air disturbances resulting in significant cloudiness and the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially Saturday night and Sunday.
The specific triggers for thunderstorms are not well defined, except for the approaching upper air frontal wave that approaches late Sunday. While the GFS has almost an inch of rain falling this weekend, it remains to be seen if the weak triggers are enough to break this drought dryness trend. Supporting the idea that the weekend may remain relatively dry is the NAM model, which shows very little in the way of instability or precipitation.
Sat 7/14: Considerable cloudiness. Perhaps some sunny breaks. Chance of thunderstorms late afternoon, although most of the day will be dry. High 89.
Sun 7/15: Considerable cloudiness, very warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible. High 91.

posted: Jul 13 2012 at 8:08 pm

[/weather/jul12] permanent link
Mon, 09 Jul 2012
Summer Climate Forecast Update- July 2012
Back on March 12th, I had made a climate prediction about this summer. Much of my forecast was based on the current year corresponding to the same solar cycle period as years 1999-2001, a year or so before the solar cycle sunspot maximum. See my climate prediction at this link.
The current solar cycle maximum is less than two years away. While this solar maximum will be significantly lower than the previous two cycles, and while we are coming off of a significantly lengthy solar minimum, it's my opinion that this coming spring and summer will approach the very dry and hot summers we had in 2000-2001. Expect much above average normal temps and little rainfall.
In fact, by next Fall, I think we will be hearing the word "drought" in the news.
The extreme temperatures we're experiencing and the increasing drought conditions seems to be verifying. I expect the rest of the summer and early fall to continue to set temperature records, and we will be increasingly dealing with a drought situation. Why the news media avoids the clear connection between the solar cycle and high temperatures/drought escapes me. But superimposing greenhouse gases related global warming with the solar maximum effects appears to present a major impact on our planet's climate.

posted: Jul 09 2012 at 6:49 pm

[/weather/jul12] permanent link
Fri, 06 Jul 2012
Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A front moves through Saturday night, about midnight and then stalls over DE. Prior to the frontal passage, the NAM model is predicting high temps on Saturday at 103 while the GFS is predicting highs of 99. With the passage of the front Saturday evening, showers and thunderstorms are predicted by the NAM. Cloudiness lingers on Sunday with a disturbance along the front bringing showers by late afternoon.
As mentioned in my recent post, the models haven't been doing very well lately.
Sat 7/7: Sunny hot and humid. High 100. Increasing cloudiness in the late afternoon with showers and thunderstorms during the evening.
Sun 7/8: Considerable cloudiness, very warm and humid. High 90. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening.

posted: Jul 06 2012 at 2:40 pm

[/weather/jul12] permanent link
Thu, 05 Jul 2012
Philadelphia Weather Discussion- Thur PM
Well, we've had some pretty wild weather this past week. I think what stands out in my mind most is how poorly the models have been at predicting several of the events in the current weather. The best example is last Friday's derecho thunderstorm complex. None of the models had predicted even a high chance of thunderstorms Friday night and the chance of severe weather was predicted to be very low as well.
Regarding the current heat wave, all of the models had a cooling trend to occur this past Tuesday; then the front was supposed to cool things down on Thursday (today). Now, the front is supposed to move through Sunday night. But will it?
The models are now predicting a greater pattern change for next week, where a cyclonic flow in eastern Canada, an extension of the polar vortex, will move the front through and maintain cooler temperatures. This change had been predicted to occur this week. We will see if this happens.

posted: Jul 05 2012 at 8:49 pm

[/weather/jul12] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 27 Jul 2012 Philly Weekend Weather Update -Fri PM The latest NAM model has a weak front moving through on Saturday with showers and thinderstorms late morning and afternoon. Sat 7/28: Mostly cloudy and warm with showers and thunderstorms.. High 87. Sun 7/29: Partly sunny and very warm. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms late. High 89. posted: Jul 27 2012 at 10:54 pm [/weather/jul12] permanent link Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM A weak frontal boundary has slipped south of us into Virginia this morning, and a west to northwesterly flow of very warm but less humid air should filter in later today and on Saturday. The front may start to move north as a warm front on Monday. Sat 7/28: Mostly sunny and very warm. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible late afternoon. High 90. Sun 7/29: Partly sunny and very warm. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms late. High 89. posted: Jul 27 2012 at 9:01 am [/weather/jul12] permanent link Fri, 20 Jul 2012 Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM A stalled frontal boundary will sink south on Saturday, allowing a northeast flow to partially clear skies. Temps will remain below normal. The front moves north as a warm front Saturday night, with clearing and warmer temps for Sunday. Sat 7/21: Gradual clearing, partly cloudy by afternoon. High 81. Sun 7/22: Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. High 87. posted: Jul 20 2012 at 9:15 pm [/weather/jul12] permanent link Sun, 15 Jul 2012 Philly Weekend Weather Update -Sun AM The forecast remains difficult to pin down regarding specifics of precipitation. Neither the GFS nor NAM model have been very accurate at predicting showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Timing and coverage of showers remains difficult Current radar shows isolated showers moving through Chester and Delaware counties. The current short range GFS-LAMP forecast has high chance of showers and thunderstorms starting about 4 PM this afternoon. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) based ont the NAM has mch of the expected showers this morning. So go figure. An experimental 4 Km NAM nested model somewhat agrees with the GFS and GFS-LAMP forecast. So we'll go with light scattered showers this morning and then heavier thundershowers possible this afternoon after 4 PM. Sun 7/15: Cloudy, very warm and humid. Some bright spots or sunny breaks possible mid-day. Widely scattered showers possible this morning. Thunderstorms likely this afternoon after 4 PM. High 88. posted: Jul 15 2012 at 8:44 am [/weather/jul12] permanent link Sat, 14 Jul 2012 Philly Weekend Weather Update -Sat AM A clearly difficult forecast this weekend, as neither the NAM nor the GFS has predicted the showers for this morning. Current radar suggests that a frontal boundary to our south had formed and is moving back as a warm front earlier than had been predicted. Looking at current radar and the most recent run of the short range HRRR model, it appears that rain showers will be with us through 10 or 11 AM today and then should shift southward into Delaware for the afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are likely headed towards us later this afternoon and this evening. Sat 7/14: Showers ending later in the morning. Perhaps some sunny breaks. Chance of thunderstorms late afternoon and continuing through the evening. Humid. High 85. Sun 7/15: Cloudy, very warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the morning. Exact timing uncertain. High 91. posted: Jul 14 2012 at 7:15 am [/weather/jul12] permanent link Fri, 13 Jul 2012 Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM A southwesterly surface flow of increasing moist and unstable air will combine with weak upper air disturbances resulting in significant cloudiness and the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially Saturday night and Sunday. The specific triggers for thunderstorms are not well defined, except for the approaching upper air frontal wave that approaches late Sunday. While the GFS has almost an inch of rain falling this weekend, it remains to be seen if the weak triggers are enough to break this drought dryness trend. Supporting the idea that the weekend may remain relatively dry is the NAM model, which shows very little in the way of instability or precipitation. Sat 7/14: Considerable cloudiness. Perhaps some sunny breaks. Chance of thunderstorms late afternoon, although most of the day will be dry. High 89. Sun 7/15: Considerable cloudiness, very warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible. High 91. posted: Jul 13 2012 at 8:08 pm [/weather/jul12] permanent link Mon, 09 Jul 2012 Summer Climate Forecast Update- July 2012 Back on March 12th, I had made a climate prediction about this summer. Much of my forecast was based on the current year corresponding to the same solar cycle period as years 1999-2001, a year or so before the solar cycle sunspot maximum. See my climate prediction at this link. The current solar cycle maximum is less than two years away. While this solar maximum will be significantly lower than the previous two cycles, and while we are coming off of a significantly lengthy solar minimum, it's my opinion that this coming spring and summer will approach the very dry and hot summers we had in 2000-2001. Expect much above average normal temps and little rainfall. In fact, by next Fall, I think we will be hearing the word "drought" in the news. The extreme temperatures we're experiencing and the increasing drought conditions seems to be verifying. I expect the rest of the summer and early fall to continue to set temperature records, and we will be increasingly dealing with a drought situation. Why the news media avoids the clear connection between the solar cycle and high temperatures/drought escapes me. But superimposing greenhouse gases related global warming with the solar maximum effects appears to present a major impact on our planet's climate. posted: Jul 09 2012 at 6:49 pm [/weather/jul12] permanent link Fri, 06 Jul 2012 Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM A front moves through Saturday night, about midnight and then stalls over DE. Prior to the frontal passage, the NAM model is predicting high temps on Saturday at 103 while the GFS is predicting highs of 99. With the passage of the front Saturday evening, showers and thunderstorms are predicted by the NAM. Cloudiness lingers on Sunday with a disturbance along the front bringing showers by late afternoon. As mentioned in my recent post, the models haven't been doing very well lately. Sat 7/7: Sunny hot and humid. High 100. Increasing cloudiness in the late afternoon with showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Sun 7/8: Considerable cloudiness, very warm and humid. High 90. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening. posted: Jul 06 2012 at 2:40 pm [/weather/jul12] permanent link Thu, 05 Jul 2012 Philadelphia Weather Discussion- Thur PM Well, we've had some pretty wild weather this past week. I think what stands out in my mind most is how poorly the models have been at predicting several of the events in the current weather. The best example is last Friday's derecho thunderstorm complex. None of the models had predicted even a high chance of thunderstorms Friday night and the chance of severe weather was predicted to be very low as well. Regarding the current heat wave, all of the models had a cooling trend to occur this past Tuesday; then the front was supposed to cool things down on Thursday (today). Now, the front is supposed to move through Sunday night. But will it? The models are now predicting a greater pattern change for next week, where a cyclonic flow in eastern Canada, an extension of the polar vortex, will move the front through and maintain cooler temperatures. This change had been predicted to occur this week. We will see if this happens. posted: Jul 05 2012 at 8:49 pm [/weather/jul12] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.