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Miscellaneous
Wed, 31 May 2006
Week Weather Outlook and Weekend Forecast
A cold front will slowly move through from Thursday night through Friday with showers and thunderstorms. An upper trough will follow the front into Saturday.
For today, Wed, we'll be in-between systems. No rain expected, according to the current WRF. Still warm temperatures in the 80s. Dewpoints will be near 70 this evening, giving us a real taste of summer.
Showers Thursday night into Friday, with Friday afternoon the wettest time. Gradual clearing on Saturday.
Sat 6/3: Unsettled, mix of sun and clouds. Chance of a brief shower in the afternoon, although most of the day rain free. Cool, high in the 70s. (At the shore, cool but more sun.)
Sun 6/4: Sunny, breezy and cool. High 78. Similar at the shore.
posted: May 31 2006 at 6:24 am
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Tue, 30 May 2006Week Weather Outlook- Tues PM
The backdoor front still hasn't made it here. The WRF version I'm following has showers and thunderstorms occurring in NE PA moving south and getting here at about 11 PM or so. Last night they never made it here and we'll see if that's again the case tonight.
I've just found out that the current NAM/Eta model is scheduled to be replaced by the WRF model on June 13th. It will still be called the NAM (North American Mesoscale) but the Eta physics will be replaced by the WRF physics package. Look for better forecasts! (I don't think they will be using the version I like so much, but it will be an improvement.)
Tomorrow, Wed, we'll be in-between systems. No rain expected, according to the current WRF. Still warm temperatures in the 80s.
This week, we're looking at a number of frontal boundaries, all attempting to move through. Tonight, the WRF again predicts scattered thunderstorms in Philadelphia between 8 and 11 PM. Some of the model versions are not predicting much of anything. Some showers move through again late Wednesday night into Thurs.
Friday looks like the wettest day, with things clearing for the weekend!
posted: May 30 2006 at 7:11 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Mon
The backdoor cold front didn't make it as far south as had been previously expected. The thunderstorms, predicted by the WRF, formed but fell apart after entering Bucks County. Not totally off, but I had thought we'd get some storms into Philadelphia early last night. Oh well.
This week, we're looking at a number of frontal boundaries, all attempting to move through. Tonight, the WRF again predicts scattered thunderstorms in Philadelphia between 8 and 11 PM. Some of the model versions are not predicting much of anything. Some showers move through again late Wednesday night into Thurs.
Friday looks like the wettest day, with things clearing for the weekend!
posted: May 30 2006 at 5:28 am
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Mon, 29 May 2006Weekend Weather Update- Monday
OK, let's see how good this version of the WRF model is. The major models keep us dry all day and into the evening, with just a 40% chance of a thunderstorm about 8 PM. The WRF ensemble member that I've been tracking has heavy thunderstorms between 7 and 11 PM this evening. We'll see what happens.
Mon 5/29: Mostly sunny and very warm. High 88. Increasing clouds late afternoon with thunderstorms possible this evening. (Shore forecast- continued cool and breezy at the beaches. High in the 70s.)
posted: May 29 2006 at 8:40 am
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Sun, 28 May 2006Weekend Weather Update- Sun
Updated to include the WRF forecast showing a backdoor cold front approaching on Monday.
Sun 5/28: Sunny and cooler. Some clouds late in the afternoon. High 80.
Mon 5/29: Sunny in the morning, increasing clouds in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the evening. High 86.
Shore forecast: Sunday: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures cooler on Sunday. Winds will pickup at the beach mid day from the east. On Monday, some increase in clouds with showers offshore during the afternoon.
posted: May 28 2006 at 12:57 pm
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Weekend Weather Update- Sun AM
No significant change in the forecast. Winds turn to the north and then the northeast on Sunday. Drier air, clear skies and cooler temperatures, especially at the shore.
Sun 5/28: Sunny and cooler. High 80.
Mon 5/29: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. Dewpoints in the low 60s. High 85. (The WRF suggests some clouds and widely scattered light showers in the far northwest areas during the afternoon.)
Shore forecast: Sunday: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures cooler on Sunday. Winds will pickup at the beach mid day from the east. On Monday, some showers offshore during the afternoon.
posted: May 28 2006 at 8:16 am
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Sat, 27 May 2006Weekend Weather Update- Sat PM
Winds turn to the north and then the northeast on Sunday. Drier air, clear skies and cooler temperatures, especially at the shore. My Jersey shore webcam is now operational. Currently pointing west, over the bay area of Ventnor NJ.
Sun 5/28: Sunny and cooler. High 78.
Mon 5/29: Sunny. Warm and humid. Dewpoints in the low 60s. High 85. (Some of the models suggest some clouds, even some showers, especially at the Shore on Monday....will have to watch this.)
Shore forecast: Sunday: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures cooler on Sunday. Winds will pickup at the beach mid day from the east and some clouds may move in during the afternoon.
posted: May 27 2006 at 7:31 pm
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Technical Weather Discussion
Wow, I was really impressed with the WRF model today! Those of you at the NJ shore (Atlantic City area, etc) probably noticed we had a rain shower this afternoon. Only the WRF, specifically a version of the WRF, predicted this instability shower in this area. (The GFS had predicted this and then backed off yesterday.) The GFS and NAM MOS had virtually no chance of showers today.
I've been watching the WRF (Weather Research Forcast) Model for a few months now. The WRF is being groomed to replace the NAM (North American Mesocale) and I believe that the parallel run of the NAM, referred to the NAM-X is really the WRF model being run.
More specifically, I'm using a particular run of the WRF model, that uses the initial conditions of the NAM but different physics packages, specifically the Betts-Miller convection physics and Mellor-Yamada turbulence physics. (Gee, I really don't understand the equations for these things, but I'm glad others do. Somehow, I always think of Betts-Miller as Bette Midler. LOL :-)
I've gotten excited about other models before, only to find that they're good only with certain patterns. But the geniuses behind the numerical modeling in the NWS really are amazing.
The only source I have of this model version is the evening model run, which doesn't become available until the morning, making it 12 hours old. Wish I had more frequent updates, but if it's as accurate as it seems, maybe it's not needed. I'll continue to use this model in the coming months and we'll see how good it really is! Stay tuned!
posted: May 27 2006 at 6:39 pm
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Weekend Weather Update- Sat
Drier air continues to move in. Increasing sun today, and sunny through the weekend! (The WRF continues to show light showers possible in NJ Saturday afternoon; the GFS/NAM have it dry.) My Jersey shore webcam is now operational. Currently pointing west, over the bay area of Ventnor NJ.
Sat 5/27: Some lingering clouds early morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 82.
Sun 5/28: Mostly sunny. High 78.
Mon 5/29: Sunny. Warm and humid. Dewpoints in the low 60s. High 85.
Shore forecast: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures cool on Sunday. Highs in the near 70 for all three days. Sunny skies. Ocean water temperatures are still in the 50s.
posted: May 27 2006 at 7:43 am
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Fri, 26 May 2006A Nice Weekend!- Fri PM
Drier air will filter into our area on Saturday. Gradually clearing skies, with mostly sunny conditions by mid afternoon. (The WRF still predicts a thundershower at the shore on Saturday afternoon; the GFS and NAM do not.) On Sunday continued fair weather as high pressure and north to northeasterly winds bring dry weather.
Sat 5/27: Some lingering clouds early morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 82.
Sun 5/28: Mostly sunny. High 78.
Mon 5/29: Sunny. Warm. High 82.
Shore forecast: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures very cool on Sunday. Highs in the near 70 for all three days. Sunny skies. Ocean water temperatures are still in the 50s.
posted: May 26 2006 at 10:34 pm
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A Nice Weekend!- Fri AM
Last night's GFS and WRF continue to have some showers for our area today, Friday. Things dry out on Saturday through Monday, as dry air moves in from the north and northeast. Showers, previously predicted for Saturday afternoon are no longer in the forecast.
Sat 5/27: Some lingering clouds early morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 82.
Sun 5/28: Mostly sunny. High 83.
Mon 5/29: Sunny. Warm. High 85.
Shore forecast: A north to northeasterly flow off the cold Atlantic will keep beach temperatures very cool. Highs in the near 70 for all three days. Sunny skies. Ocean water temperatures are still in the 50s.
posted: May 26 2006 at 7:59 am
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Thu, 25 May 2006Weekend Looking Better!- Thurs PM
Some heavy showers and rain for Friday and Friday afternoon/evening, according to the GFS and WRF, especially in NJ. Both models have relative clearing on Saturday, but the GFS (and WRF) have been consistent with a prediction of light showers, especially in NJ and at the shore on Saturday afternoon.
Sat 5/27: Lingering clouds in the morning, becoming partly sunny. A shower, especially at the Jersey shore is possible late afternoon. High 80.
Sun 5/28: Mostly sunny. High 82.
Mon 5/29: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 84.
Shore forecast: A greater chance of as shower at the shore on Saturday. Similar forecast to Philadelphia for Sunday and Monday.
posted: May 25 2006 at 7:13 pm
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Wed, 24 May 2006Weekend Looking Better!- Wed PM
The GFS has become more progressive with the low pressure system. The DGEX and GFS still shows some light showers possible late Saturday afternoon, but it's looking like summer finally gets here!
Sat 5/27: Partly sunny, warm and humid. Shower possible late afternoon, especially at teh shore. High 80.
Sun 5/28: Mostly sunny. High 81
Mon 5/29: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 82
Shore forecast: A greater chance of as shower at the shore on Saturday. A northerly to northeasterly flow will keep temps farily cool at the beach.
posted: May 24 2006 at 6:40 pm
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Tue, 23 May 2006Week and Memorial Weekend Weather Forecast- Tues PM
There's been no change with the GFS or DGEX models-- both show a stalled low pressure system off the coast, giving us showers through Saturday. Things begin to clear out Saturday night for Sunday and much of Monday.
Sat 5/27: Mostly cloudy, with showers especially during the mid day and afternoon hours. Highs 77.
Sun 5/28: Becoming mostly sunny with occasional clouds. Breezy. High 78
Mon 5/29: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 80
Shore forecast: Cloudy and and cool on Saturday with showers. Northeasterly flow. Sunny and cool on Sunday; continued onshore NE flow. Mostly sunny, but a chance of a shower on Monday.
posted: May 23 2006 at 7:39 pm
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Week and Memorial Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues AM
The latest GFS model continues to show a stalled low pressure system parked over our area for much of the Memorial Day Weekend. The DGEX (Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension, a DGEX/NAM blend) has a more optimistic forecast, with just a few showers, mostly west.
So, a mix of clouds and sun, with a fairly high chance of showers, especially in the afternoon is the current outlook for both Saturday and Sunday, if the GFS is correct.
I'm having trouble with this pessimistic forecast, since it's our first weekend down at the shore. Let's hope that things change...it often does!
posted: May 23 2006 at 5:16 am
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Mon, 22 May 2006Week and Memorial Weekend Weather Outlook- Mon PM
A warming trend continues through the end of the week. The latest GFS has an unusual low pressure system parking itself over us on Friday and Saturday, with showers. The earlier GFS and the NOGAPS had a more progressive system that would exit and give us a fine weekend. Too early to call right now.
posted: May 22 2006 at 6:32 pm
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Sun, 21 May 2006Week Outlook- Memorial Day Weekend Outlook
The trough pattern that has been with us for some time is promising to transform (finally) into a more spring-summer pattern this week.
Warmer temperatures will finally arrive Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS has a disturbance approaching us on Friday, bringing rather heavy rain during the daytime but promises to clear out by the weekend. Warmer weather and clear skies is the current outlook for at least Saturday and Sunday. This period, though, is more than 5 days away and things in weather may change. Stay tuned!
posted: May 21 2006 at 7:17 pm
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Sunday Outlook
More sun now expected in the morning. Clouds later in the afternoon as a front moves through. The WRF continues with a chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm about 5 PM today.
Sun 5/21: Sunny in the morning; clouds move in mid afternoon and showers/thunderstorms a good bet about 5 PM. High 74.
posted: May 21 2006 at 7:30 am
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Sat, 20 May 2006Weekend Weather- corrected
Reviewed latest WRF and radar. One version of WRF has showers this morning, as currently occurring. (The GFS and NAM had us dry.)
The upper low in eastern Canada continues to rotate areas of moisture and lift through our area.
The latest model run shows decreased precipitation chances for our area, both for today and Sunday. Today looks dry (after some morning spits, as depicted by current radar and one version of the WRF) and the sun should break through later this morning. A surface front will move through on Sunday afternoon and the WRF continues to forecast light showers Sunday afternoon, although the NAM and GFS pops are very low (<25%).
Sat 5/20: Becoming partly sunny after morning clouds and light showers. High 72.
Sun 5/21: More clouds than sun. Most of the day dry, although a light shower is possible in the afternoon. High 70.
posted: May 20 2006 at 8:54 am
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Weekend Weather
The upper low in eastern Canada continues to rotate areas of moisture and lift through our area.
The latest model run shows decreased precipitation chances for our area, both for today and Sunday. Today looks dry (after some early morning spits) and the sun should break through later this morning. A surface front will move through on Sunday afternoon and the WRF continues to forecast light showers Sunday afternoon, although the NAM and GFS pops are very low (<25%).
Sat 5/20: Becoming partly sunny after morning clouds. Dry. High 72.
Sun 5/21: More clouds than sun. Most of the day dry, although a light shower is possible in the afternoon. High 70.
posted: May 20 2006 at 8:46 am
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Fri, 19 May 2006Weekend Forecast - Uncertain Period
With an upper closed low in eastern Canada still affecting us and a shift of pattern occurring this weekend, the models are having a difficult time with a consistent forecast.
Confidence is low with this weekend's forecast as small disturbances still spin into our area, but timing of these disturbances will be difficult. Overall, Saturday is now looking like the drier day, with perhaps a shower late afternoon in some areas. The WRF now shows a frontal boundary moving in on Sunday, with showers during the day, mostly to our north.
Sat 5/20: Partly cloudy/partly sunny. Chance of a shower in the afternoon. Most of the day dry. High 72.
Sun 5/21: More clouds than sun. Windy. Chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. High 70.
posted: May 19 2006 at 6:52 am
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Thu, 18 May 2006Weekend Looking Better!
The weekend is looking sunnier and dryer, as the block type pattern (with closed upper low) we've had for the past few weeks shows signs of truly breaking down.
Sat 5/20: Partly cloudy/partly sunny. High 70.
Sun 5/21: Partly to mostly sunny. High 75.
posted: May 18 2006 at 6:04 am
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Wed, 17 May 2006Weekend Outlook
A somewhat difficult forecast for this weekend, as another upper low is expected to cut off over us again. Partly cloudy skies with a chance of light showers, especially Saturday seems to be in the cards. Cool weather also expected.
Sat 5/20: Partly cloudy/partly sunny. Slight chance of a scattered shower, most likely in the afternoon. Most of the day dry. High 67.
Sun 5/21: Mostly sunny in the morning. Increasing cloudiness in the late afternoon. High 70.
posted: May 17 2006 at 5:47 am
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Tue, 16 May 2006Week Weather Outlook - Tues AM
The WRF correctly predicted the rain this morning. The WRF model I'm using is a 12km high resolution version. Unfortunately, it predicts only 24 hours in advance.
The GFS continues to show a stuck low pressure system north of us, over the St. Lawrence Valley and Canada through the end of the week. Disturbances will continue to rotate around this pool of cold air aloft and will result in instability showers developing for several days. Unsettled weather will continue.
A deep dip in the jet stream is expected over the weekend... this deep trough will move in on Saturday and Sunday. Much cooler temps are expected, but details on how this will interact with the moisture flow isn't clear yet. Some showers are expected over the weekend.
posted: May 16 2006 at 6:50 am
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Mon, 15 May 2006Week Weather Outlook - Mon PM
Last night's WRF got the rain right earlier in the day, but only later runs showed the shower/thunderstorms that passed through this evening.
The GFS and WRF show showers Tuesday morning, and again Wednesday morning, with an unsettled period of sunshine and clouds and occasional showers mixed in.
The upcoming weekend appears to be an unsettled period again where a closed upper low is just north of us in Canada and a deep trough will move in on Saturday and Sunday. Much cooler temps are expected, but details on how this will all interact isn't clear at this time.
posted: May 15 2006 at 7:26 pm
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Week Weather Outlook-Mon
Rain will end about 2PM today (Mon)and skies may clear. The latest WRF doesn't predict any showers later in the afternoon.
A transition the next few days as the closed low lifts out to our northeast.
posted: May 15 2006 at 5:54 am
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Sun, 14 May 2006Week Weather Outlook
This morning's WRF did quite well in predicting the dry conditions and the eventual sunshine that we had this afternoon. The stalled upper low pressure system that has been affecting us will lift out over the next few days, with rain Monday morning and more showers possible later in the afternoon.
The next big feature is another closed low and deep trough forecast for the end of the week into Saturday. Very cool temperatures are likely next Friday and Saturday, as showers form due to instability and surface lows that will move through.
By the way, many long range forecasts are predicting a very cool and rainy summer here for the Northeast. I'm not big on long range forecasts, so I'm just passing this info along.
posted: May 14 2006 at 6:35 pm
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Dry Today...
The GFS has come in line with the WRF -- both predicting that showers will stay fairly far to the west of Philadelphia today, keeping us dry for most of the daytime hours.
Relative humidity fields at 5000 feet and below suggest that the sun should break through the low clouds today, probably late morning.
Sun 5/14: After morning clouds, some sun should break through. A fair amount of sunshine now expected mid-day. Any showers should wait until after 6PM. High 70. Rain late Sunday night/early Monday morning.
posted: May 14 2006 at 7:04 am
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Sat, 13 May 2006Forecast Change - Sunday Looking Better!
The new WRF (Weather Research Forecast) model did very well today. The showers developed mid-day as expected and were from Philadelphia and west. If only it could predict this well every day! (Areas in NJ had sunshine for most of the day, after early fog.)
Let's go with the WRF forecast again for tomorrow. That means that increased stability in our area will allow more sunshine, less clouds...and showers should wait until late afternoon or evening. By the way, the GFS has a much more rainy forecast for Sunday, so we'll see if the WRF does better again!
Sun 5/14: After morning fog, sun should break through. A fair amount of sunshine now expected mid-day. Showers should wait until after 6PM. High 70. Rain Sunday night.
posted: May 13 2006 at 6:33 pm
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Weekend Update- Sat AM
Last night's WRF has light showers developing over us around mid-day. While we'll still see some sun, widely scattered showers will be around from Philadelphia and areas west.
Sat 5/13: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers possible by mid-day into the afternoon in many areas. High around 76
Sun 5/14: Mostly cloudy... with showers possible in the afternoon, probably late. High near 70.
posted: May 13 2006 at 5:41 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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