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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Miscellaneous
Sat, 28 Jan 2012
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Discussion - Sat PM
A weak cold front will move in late Sunday. Today was less windy than had been predicted
This coming week, we get another warmup mid-week before things get cold and wintery with the start of February. In fact, today's GFS is advertising another small snowfall for Friday morning and a cold blast for next weekend. The models have been somewhat inconsistent, so we'll have to see if there's consistency in the next model runs.
Sun 1/29: Mostly sunny and cooler. Some clouds in the late afternoon. High about 45
posted: Jan 28 2012 at 6:06 pm
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Fri, 27 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
Low pressure will move to eastern Canada as high pressure gradually builds in. The airmass moving in isn't that cold, due to its Pacific origin. Another cold front will move in late Sunday.
Sat 1/28: Partly to mostly sunny and very mild. Windy!. Highs near 51
Sun 1/29: Mostly sunny and cooler. Increasing clouds in the late afternoon. High about 45
posted: Jan 27 2012 at 9:17 am
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Sun, 22 Jan 2012Philly Weekend Weather Discussion - Sun PM
Saturday's weather was captured fairly well by the models, with the GFS more accurately capturing the precipitation amounts and the NAM somewhat more accurately capturing the temperatures that didn't rise above freezing. Neither model predicted the cold weather that stayed entrenched today (Sunday.)
Most interesting is the fact that neither model had really predicted this very far in advance. Already, the overall pattern for this coming week has changed considerably than had been predicted even five days earlier.
While there will be a warmup for Monday and Tuesday, the warmup is much less than the models had been predicting last week.
For the coming weekend, there is a chance of snow again on Saturday. That said, expect things to change in a few days!
posted: Jan 22 2012 at 5:09 pm
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Fri, 20 Jan 2012Winter Weather Update -10 PM
The latest NAM has just become available, along with the latest run of the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model.
These models continue to show between 3 and 4 inches of snow for Philadelphia, north and west by 7AM. The snow transitions to freezing rain about 7 AM where it continues to fall as freezing rain for several hours.
The freezing rain and rain ends about 1 PM. Expect hazardous driving conditions for much of the morning, north and west of Philadelphia.
posted: Jan 20 2012 at 10:02 pm
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Philadelphia Winter Weather Forecast - Fri 6 PM
A warm-frontal type system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to our area. Somewhat warmer air approaching from the south ahead of a weak disturbance along the warm-cold boundary will lift and cause precipitation in the hours before daybreak on Saturday.
All models show enough warming of the upper atmosphere by 7AM Saturday, that snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain after 7AM. The NAM is more aggresive with the early amounts of precipitation as snow, with as much as 3-4 inches in PHL; the GFS has lower amounts of 1-2 inches of snow falling before 7AM.
The question is the transition. The NAM is colder and keeps the temps around 32 for much of the morning; the GFS warms a bit more. So the NAM suggests a a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain; the GFS transitions things to rain a bit quicker.
Based on past warm-frontal events, I think the NAM will be correct in areas just outside the city, with 3-4 inches of snow, and the amounts will then be reduced and packed down by sleet and freezing rain between 7-10 AM. Driving conditions will be dicey early, but improve by 10AM on most roads in the city. Areas just outside the city and north/west will continue to have some icing problems.
Precipitation ends early afternoon.
Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the early afternoon. High 35.
Sun 1/22: Sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. High 38.
posted: Jan 20 2012 at 6:22 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri 2 PM
A warm-frontal type system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to our area. Somewhat warmer air approaching from the south ahead of a weak disturbance along the warm-cold boundary will lift and cause precipitation in the hours before daybreak on Saturday.
All models show enough warming of the upper atmosphere by 7AM Saturday, that snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain after 7AM. The NAM is more aggresive with the early amounts of precipitation as snow, with as much as 3-4 inches in PHL; the GFS has lower amounts of 1-2 inches of snow falling before 7AM.
The question is the transition. The NAM is colder and keeps the temps around 32 for much of the morning; the GFS warms a bit more. So the NAM suggests a a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain; the GFS transitions things to rain a bit quicker.
Based on past warm-frontal events, I think the NAM will be correct in areas just outside the city, with 3-4 inches of snow, and the amounts will then be reduced and packed down by sleet and freezing rain between 7-10 AM. Driving conditions will be dicey early, but improve by 10AM on most roads in the city. Areas just outside the city and north/west will continue to have some problems.
Precipitation ends early afternoon.
Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the early afternoon. High 38.
Sun 1/22: Sunny and seasonably cold. High 40.
posted: Jan 20 2012 at 2:42 pm
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Thu, 19 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook - Thu PM
The latest NAM model cranks out considerable precipitation for early Saturday with several inches (2-3) of snow changing to a period of heavy sleet and freezing rain during the morning. Stay tuned
posted: Jan 19 2012 at 10:53 pm
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Wed, 18 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Wed PM
The forecast for the coming period continues to change. There has been very little consistency, especially with the long range forecast. The general trend is the continued alternating warm and cold periods we have had for much of this month.
Regarding this weekend, a low pressure system moves in before daybreak on Saturday. While temps will be moderating on Saturday, the timing of the precipitation before daybreak will allow the precipitation to fall initially snow mixed with sleet and then a period of freezing rain possible in the early morning. An eventual changeover to sleet and rain is likely during the day on Saturday.
Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the afternoon. High 38.
Sun 1/22: Sunny and seasonably cold. High 40.
posted: Jan 18 2012 at 7:56 pm
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Thu, 12 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weather Outlook - Thu AM
The GFS has backed off of the low again!
Sat 1/14: Mostly sunny breezy and cold. High 36.
Sun 1/15: Partly to mostly sunny. High 32.
posted: Jan 12 2012 at 7:11 am
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Wed, 11 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weather Outlook - Wed AM
The latest GFS again shows the possibility of light snow for Sunday. An upper air disturbance is expected to move over us and develop off of the coast. The models continue to show the development occurs too far into the Atlantic to give us a storm, but the upper disturbance does crank out some light snow or flurries for us on Sunday.
Sat 1/14: Mostly sunny breezy and cold. High 36.
Sun 1/15: Cloudy and cold. Chance of light snow or flurries. High 35.
posted: Jan 11 2012 at 7:54 am
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Tue, 10 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weather Outlook - Update
The possible snow for Sunday is already gone from the models. Expect cold and clear weather for the weekend.
Sat 1/14: Sunny breezy and cold. High 36.
Sun 1/15: Sunny and cold. High 35..
posted: Jan 10 2012 at 9:29 pm
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Mon, 09 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weather Outlook -Possible Snow
This afternoon's GFS model shows an interesting possibility for this coming Sunday afternoon and night- our first possible snow.
An amplified jet stream and a low pressure system developing along the coast may be the right ingredients for a snowfall. Right now, the low tracks to our south and east, but that is often the GFS bias early in storm development. Stay tuned.
posted: Jan 09 2012 at 9:49 pm
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Sun, 08 Jan 2012Philly Weekend Weather Update- Sun AM
The temperatures got much higher yesterday than the model MOS forecasts. These very warm periods for this winter will likely continue, interspersed with colder periods. The reason is the approaching solar sunspot maximum, superimposed on global warming. See my climate forecast from Nov 27th for more information.
Today, Sunday, will have a variable amount of clouds, as a disturbance is suppressed to our south along yesterday's frontal bounday. High temps are expected to be cooler than yesterday:47.
posted: Jan 08 2012 at 8:46 am
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Wed, 04 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
The highly amplified upper pattern that brought the cold weather will relax a bit by Saturday, and milder temps will return. Another weak cold front will move through later Saturday, bringing temps down for Sunday. The front will stall to our south, as a disturbance moves up along the front on Monday, perhaps bringing some light showers or snow to us on Monday. Still too early to tell.
Sat 1/7: Partly sunny and mild. Some increasing clouds late in the day. High 52.
Sun 1/8: Mostly sunny in the morning, some increasing clouds in the late afternoon. High 47.
posted: Jan 04 2012 at 7:50 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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