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Miscellaneous
Sat, 29 Nov 2008
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat PM
Low pressure developing in the Mississippi Valley will move northward and intensify as an upper level trough maintains its position through Monday.
The GFS and NAM have come together with rain starting in the morning. The GFS model did better on this one.
Sun 11/30: Cloudy. Rain starts in the morning and continues through the day. Temperatures rise as the day goes by and approaches the 50s by the evening.
An anomalous lull in the sunspot number has resulted in many months of reduced solar energy reaching us. I believe this will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. My first prediction of this was in my October 17th blog entry.. We're already seeing this begin.
posted: Nov 29 2008 at 6:33 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Fri, 28 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri PM
High pressure maintains nice weather through Saturday night. Low pressure developing in the Mississippi Valley will move northward and intensify as an upper level trough maintains its position through Monday. A secondary low may try to organize off the coast, but the main low is expected (at this time) to be inland.
There are differences between the GFS and the NAM-WRF with the GFS having light rain Sunday morning while the NAM waits for the later afternoon. Hard to tell which is right, but the NAM has been doing better lately.
Sat 11/29: Mostly sunny and milder. High 47.
Sun 11/30: Cloudy. Rain starts in the morning (GFS model) or late afternoon (NAM model) I will update this. High 44.
An anomalous lull in the sunspot number has resulted in many months of reduced solar energy reaching us. I believe this will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. My first prediction of this was in my October 17th blog entry.. We're already seeing this begin.
posted: Nov 28 2008 at 1:15 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Thu, 27 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Thur PM
After some tranquil days from Thanksgiving through Saturday, a very active pattern develops later Sunday. Low pressure is expected to develop in the Mississippi Valley and intensify. A secondary low may possibly form off the coast. Rain late Sunday into Sunday night and lingers through Monday, giving us high winds.
Sat 11/29: Mostly sunny and milder. High 47.
Sun 11/30: Sunny early, then becoming cloudy by noon. Rain starts late in the afternoon. High 45.
An anomalous lull in the sunspot number has resulted in many months of reduced solar energy reaching us. I believe this will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. My first prediction of this was in my October 17th blog entry.. We're already seeing this begin.
posted: Nov 27 2008 at 11:12 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Wed, 26 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Wed PM
After some tranquil days from Thanksgiving through Saturday, a very active pattern develops during the later part of the weekend- Deep low pressure is expected to develop in the Missippi Valley and intensify into a super storm;; a secondary low may possibly form off the coast. A major rain storm results late Sunday into Sunday night and lingers through Monday, giving us high winds. Exact course will determine rain intensity and the possibility of any snow, although current trends is that the secondary low will not take over the circulation; this means we will remain on the warmer side of the flow with rain as the precipitation type.
The exact details of this storm have been changing from day to day. Expect other changes as the weekend approaches.
Sat 11/29: Partly sunny and cold. High 47.
Sun 11/30: Cloudy with rain and wind developing by afternoon and continuing into the night. Some snow may mix in at night. High 44.
An anomalous lull in the sunspot number has resulted in many months of reduced solar energy reaching us. I believe this will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. My first prediction of this was in my October 17th blog entry.. We're already seeing this begin.
posted: Nov 26 2008 at 9:05 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Wed AM
A very active weather pattern continues with an overall wintery broad level trough affecting our weather for the coming week. This pattern is showing high variability from each successive model run, so specifics of any particular day's forecast is likely to be changing. Confidence in the specifics for the weekend are lower than usual.
Several low pressure systems are expected to develop along the trough. Currently, most are expected to be off in the Atlantic, but small changes in the jet configuration will result in big changes in our weather. There's even a chance of some snow for Sunday night.
Sat 11/29: Partly sunny and cold. High 47.
Sun 11/30: Cloudy with showers,especially afternoon and night. Some snow may mix in at night. High 44.
The low solar flux for many months as a result of an anomalous lull in the sunspot cycle I believe will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. My first prediction of this was in my October 17th Blog entry.. We're already seeing this begin.
posted: Nov 26 2008 at 7:58 am
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Fri, 21 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
The wintery pattern continues. The latest models are even colder for the weekend.
The low solar flux for many months as a result of an anomalous lull in the sunspot cycle I believe will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. We're already seeing this begin.
Sat 11/22: Sunny and very cold (Some clouds in the afternoon) High 34.
Sun 11/23: Sunny and cold. Again some clouds in the afternoon. High 38.
posted: Nov 21 2008 at 11:24 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Tue, 18 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues PM
Our wintery pattern with a deep upper level trough appears to be in a stuck pattern for the next week. Much below normal temperatures will be with us, with occasional clipper type disturbances expected for the weekend. (The GFS has briefly showed a snowstorm for Sunday, but backed away from that forecast over the past two days.) Nonetheless, this unseasonable pattern may have some surprises for us before the month is over.
Again, the low solar flux for many months as a result of an anomalous lull in the sunspot cycle I believe will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. We're already seeing this begin.
Sat 11/22: Tentative: Sunny and cold. High 44
Sun 11/23: Tentative: Sunny and cold. High 43.
posted: Nov 18 2008 at 8:30 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Sun, 16 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sun AM
The cold front moved through and cold air aloft with lower moisture will result in stratocumulus clouds today for much of the area, especially from PHL north and west.
For the coming week, a wintery pattern develops keeping us fairly cold for November. This pattern is consistent with my prediction for an unusually cold upcoming winter. The long range model continue with this stormy, wintery pattern into Thanksgiving weekend.
Sun 11/16: Mostly cloudy, windy and colder. High 49 but temperatures fall during the afternoon into the mid 40s.
posted: Nov 16 2008 at 9:26 am
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Fri, 14 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
A very strong cold front will barrel through on Saturday. Low pressure will develop along the front, bringing heavy rain/showers during the day. The latest models have a negative tilt developing for the upper trough, prolonging the rain. Blustery and cold temperatures for Sunday, as cold air moves in with a deep upper trough pattern.
For the coming week, a wintery pattern develops keeping us fairly cold for November. This pattern is consistent with my prediction for an unusually cold upcoming winter. The long range model continue with this stormy, wintery pattern into Thanksgiving weekend.
Sat 11/15: Cloudy, windy with rain, heavy at times. Cooler air moves in later at night. High 62.
Sun 11/16: Cloudy early, then clearing with partial sun, windy and colder. High 49 but temperatures fall during the afternoon through the 40s.
posted: Nov 14 2008 at 5:03 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
A very strong cold front will barrel through on Saturday. Low pressure will develop along the front, bringing heavy rain/showers during the day. The latest models have a negative tilt developing for the upper trough, prolonging the rain. Blustery and cold temperatures for Sunday, as cold air moves in with a deep upper trough pattern.
For the coming week, a wintery pattern develops keeping us fairly cold for November. This pattern is consistent with my prediction for an unusually cold upcoming winter. The long range model continue with this stormy, wintery pattern into Thanksgiving weekend.
Sat 11/15: Cloudy, windy with rain, heavy at times. Colder air moves in later in the evening. High 62.
Sun 11/16: Cloudy with lingering showers in morning. Breaks of sun in the afternoon possible. Windy and colder. High 49.
posted: Nov 14 2008 at 6:15 am
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Wed, 12 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
A very strong cold front will barrel through on Saturday. Low pressure may develop along the front, bringing heavy showers during the day. Blustery and cold temperatures for Sunday, as cold air moves in with a deep upper trough pattern.
For the coming week, a wintery pattern develops keeping us fairly cold for November. This pattern is consistent with my prediction for an unusually cold upcoming winter.
Sat 11/15: Cloudy, windy with showers much of the day. Colder air moves in later in the day. High 54.
Sun 11/16: A mix of clouds and sun. Windy and colder. High 46.
posted: Nov 12 2008 at 8:30 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Fri, 07 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Deep low pressure in the Great Lakes will result in an upper air trough developing in the central US. A front associated with this low pressure will pass through on Saturday, with showers expected, especially mid-day. Showers will be heavier the further north you go.
New MOS forecast data becomes available on December 9th, as the Eta MOS data now becomes the NAM MOS based on the WRF model. This is occuring over two years after the WRF model replaced the Eta. Expect better temperature forecasts in the future.
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/nam.php
You can see the new data in the interim at http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.nmm.php
Sat 11/8: Cloudy, with showers likely by mid/late morning continuing through mid afternoon. Breezy. High 64.
Sun 11/9: A mix of clouds and sun. High 57.
posted: Nov 07 2008 at 2:55 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Thu, 06 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Thur AM
Deep low pressure in the Great Lakes will result in an upper air trough developing in the central US. A front associated with this low pressure will pass through on Saturday, with showers expected, especially mid-day. (Models no longer have the showers to our north.)
New MOS forecast data becomes available on December 9th, as the Eta MOS data now becomes the NAM MOS based on the WRF model. This is occuring over two years after the WRF model replaced the Eta. Expect better temperature forecasts in the future.
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/nam.php
You can see the new data in the interim at http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.nmm.php
Sat 11/8: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely by late morning/early afternoon. Breezy. High 64.
Sun 11/9: Partly to mostly sunny and cooler. High 54.
posted: Nov 06 2008 at 7:24 am
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Wed, 05 Nov 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Deep low pressure in the Great Lakes will result in an upper air trough developing in the central US. A front associated with this low pressure will pass through on Saturday, and while some showers are expected mid-day, much of the activity appears to shear off to our north. Areas south of Philadelphia may remain dry.
New MOS forecast data becomes available on December 9th, as the Eta MOS data now becomes the NAM MOS based on the WRF model. This is occuring over two years after the WRF model replaced the Eta. Expect better temperature forecasts in the future.
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/nam.php
You can see the new data in the interim at http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.nmm.php
Sat 11/8: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers mid-day, especially north of the city. Breezy. High 64.
Sun 11/9: Partly to mostly sunny and cooler. High 54.
posted: Nov 05 2008 at 7:03 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Sun, 02 Nov 2008Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Sun PM
High pressure that built in for this past weekend will drift northeast, giving us a easterly flow by Tuesday. Along this flow, a coastal low will form and slowly move up to our area by late Tuesday. The low, blocked by the high pressure system, will linger through Thursday. A strong cold front associated with a deep low in the Great Lakes may bring rain for Saturday. It's too early to hold to that.
Sat 11/8: Tentative: cloudy with showers.
Sun 11/9: Tentative: clearing windy and cooler.
posted: Nov 02 2008 at 8:21 pm
[/weather/nov08] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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