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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Miscellaneous
Fri, 30 Sep 2011
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
The stalled upper low pressure system that had been over the Great Lakes for the past week will merge with an upper trough directly over us on Saturday. A surface low will develop over us for Saturday and cause a chance of showers. Continued unsettled weather is expected for Sunday.
As was the case last weekend, this weekend's weather involves a closed upper low resulting in a lower than average forecast confidence.o
Sat 10/1: Mostly cloudy, breezy and cool with a chance of intermittent showers. High 64.
Sun 10/2: Considerable cloudiness maybe some sunny breaks. Cool. High 60.
posted: Sep 30 2011 at 3:47 pm
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Sat, 24 Sep 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM
An almost stationary closed upper level low over the Great Lakes will continue to affect our weather for several more days.
For Sunday, there are huge differences between the GFS and NAM models with the NAM much wetter. The NWS is going with the drier GFS model. Low confidence forecast.
Sun 9/25: Mostly cloudy, maybe some sun. Warm and humid. High 81.
posted: Sep 24 2011 at 8:25 pm
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Fri, 23 Sep 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
A closed upper level closed low developing from a trough over Canada and the Great Lakes will be blocked from leaving our area from now until at least Monday.
The new NAM model differs from the GFS model for Sunday with the GFS much wetter on Sunday. Flooding is likely if the models are correct.
I'm being optimistic with the mention of sun. The models often have trouble with closed lows, so changes in the forecast is likely.
Sat 9/24: Heavy rains early, then mostly cloudy, some breaks of sun possible. Warm and humid. High 81
Sun 9/25: Cloudy, some breaks of sun likely. Warm and humid High 81.
posted: Sep 23 2011 at 9:25 am
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
A closed upper level closed low developing from a trough over Canada and the Great Lakes will be blocked from leaving our area from now until at least Monday.
Tonight's latest NAM and GFS models show heavy rains late Friday and again Sunday. Flooding is likely if the models are correct.
I'm being optimistic with the mention of sun. The models often have trouble with closed lows, so changes in the forecast is likely.
Sat 9/24: Some lingering showers early, then mostly cloudy, some breaks of sun possible. Rain develops again late in the day. Warm and humid. High 81
Sun 9/25: Cloudy, heavy rains possible. . Warm and humid High 81.
posted: Sep 23 2011 at 12:39 am
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Thu, 22 Sep 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs PM
A closed upper level low developing from a trough over Canada will be blocked from leaving our area from now until at least Monday.
Overall, the weather will be cloudy with periods of rain and showersvthrough the weekend, with the wettest periods expected to be from Friday into early Saturday as a surface frontal boundary focuses precipitation over the area. The rains on Friday on supposed to be significant.
For the rest of the weekend, timing of precipitation will be difficult for the models to achieve, so expect changes in the forecast and low confidence on the specifics. It would not surprise me if the daytimes are dryer with more breaks of sun than currently forecast.
Sat 9/24: Some lingering showers early, then mostly cloudy, some sun. Warm and humid. High 81
Sun 9/25: Mostly cloudy, maybe some sun. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Warm and humid High 81.
posted: Sep 22 2011 at 12:30 pm
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Wed, 21 Sep 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
A closed upper level low developing from a trough over Canada will be blocked from leaving our area from now until at least Monday.
Overall, the weather will be cloudy with periods of rain through the weekend, with the wettest periods expected to be from Friday through Saturday as a surface frontal boundary focuses precipitation over the area
That said, timing of precipitation is difficult for the models to achieve, so expect changes in the forecast and low confidence on the specifics.
Sat 9/24: Cloudy with periods of rain. High 70.
Sun 9/25: Mostly cloudy, maybe some sun. Chance of showers in the afternoon. High 71
posted: Sep 21 2011 at 4:52 pm
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Tue, 20 Sep 2011NAM Model Upgrade Delayed
Today was to be the start of the NAM operational model upgrade to the NAM-B with greatly enhanced resolution and numerous other changes and enhancements. Apparently, there are problems with some parts of the implementation and the upgrade has been delayed to a date tba.
posted: Sep 20 2011 at 9:01 pm
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Sat, 17 Sep 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Sat PM
The easterly flow has resulted in even more clouds than had been expected this afternoon. Sunday should be similar, but with brighter patches and maybe some sun too.
Sun 9/18: clouds with brightening skies, maybe sun in the afternoon. High 71.
posted: Sep 17 2011 at 5:57 pm
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Fri, 16 Sep 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
High pressure moving to our north will cause an easterly or northeasterly flow. Some low level cloudiness mixed with sun expected.
Sat 9/17: A mix of clouds and sun. High 70.
Sun 9/18: More sun than clouds. High 71.
posted: Sep 16 2011 at 6:22 pm
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Sat, 10 Sep 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Sat PM
A weak diffuse pattern is expected over the weekend, as the upper air remnants of the tropical system gets absorbed in the circulation of Katia in the Atlantic.
Sun 9/11: Some cloudiness in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon. Less humid. High 78.
posted: Sep 10 2011 at 9:07 pm
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Fri, 09 Sep 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A weak diffuse pattern is expected over the weekend, as the upper air remnants of the tropical system gets absorbed in the circulation of Katia in the Atlantic. The cloud picture doesn't look very dense and the model output statistics have about a 50% chance of rain during any 12 hour period, which isn't that high. Both the NAM and GFS crank out some scattered showers each afternoon, but it's far from a certainty.
Sat 9/10: A mix of clouds and sun. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially late afternoon. Many areas will remain dry. High 83.
Sun 9/11: More clouds than sun. Warm and humid. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially late afternoon. Many areas will remain dry. High 79.
posted: Sep 09 2011 at 8:40 pm
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Sun, 04 Sep 2011Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Update - Sun PM
The GFS and NAM have some showers developing in the afternoon and heavy rain at night as a front moves through.
Mon 9/5: Becoming cloudy with light showers in the afternoon and heavy rain at night. High 80.
posted: Sep 04 2011 at 6:29 pm
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Sat, 03 Sep 2011Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Update - Sat PM
The weekend is looking better.
Sun 9/4: Partly to mostly sunny, very warm and humid. High 87.
Mon 9/5: Partly sunny very warm and humid. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Showers at night. High 85..
posted: Sep 03 2011 at 10:19 pm
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Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Update - Sat AM
Please see my previous forecast discussion.
Sat 9/3: Partly sunny, but periods of some cloudiness in the mid to late afternoon and a chance of brief, light showers, especially north of the city. Increasing humidity. High 85.
Sun 9/4: Considerable cloudiness, some breaks of sun. Warm and humid. Chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms late in the afternoon, earlier west of PHL. High 86.
Mon 9/5: Mostly cloudy. Very warm and humid. Showers and possible thunderstorms likely. High 83.
posted: Sep 03 2011 at 8:02 am
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Fri, 02 Sep 2011Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Forecast - Fri PM
A southwesterly flow of warm very humid air moves in for the weekend. The amount of moisture is a question mark, and there may be more cloud cover and showers on Sunday and Monday than currently thought.
A developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will be feeding this humid flow. A developing upper level trough and cold front will be approaching slowly from the west. A hurricane (Katia) in the Atlantic will be approaching the east coast late in the period. The final path is a question mark too.
Tropical systems in the picture often play havoc with the forecast by interacting with the jet streams in unpredictable ways--A lower than usual confidence forecast remains for this weekend.
Sat 9/3: Partly sunny, but periods of some cloudiness in the afternoon. Increasing humidity. High 85. Showers possible at night.
Sun 9/4: Considerable cloudiness, some breaks of sun. Warm and humid. Chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms especially late in the afternoon. High 86.
Mon 9/5: Mostly cloudy. Very warm and humid. Showers and possible thunderstorms likely. High 83.
posted: Sep 02 2011 at 5:20 pm
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Thu, 01 Sep 2011Philadelphia Labor Day Weekend Forecast - Thur AM
High pressure that has kept our area dry for the past several days will drift off, as a southwesterly flow of warm very humid air moves in. A busy, complicated weather scenario for the weekend:
A developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will be feeding this humid flow. A developing upper level trough and cold front will be approaching slowly from the west. (A hurricane (Katia) in the Atlantic will be approaching but will likely turn away from the coast.)
Tropical systems in the picture often play havoc with the forecast by interacting with the jet streams in unpredictable ways--A lower than usual confidence forecast for this weekend.
Sat 9/3: Partly sunny, but periods of some cloudiness in the afternoon. Humid. High 85. Showers develop at night.
Sun 9/4: Considerable cloudiness, some breaks of sun possible. Very warm and humid. Chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms throughout the day. High 88.
Mon 9/5: Mostly cloudy. Very warm and humid. Chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. High 83.
posted: Sep 01 2011 at 7:54 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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