theweatherguy's website
Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
About this blog
theweatherguy's website,
"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."
aka "theweatherguy"
Copy link for RSS feed
These are a few of my favorite links. Meteorology Glossary
Weather Archives:
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
12: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
11: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
10: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
09: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
07: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
06: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Commentary:
Miscellaneous
Tue, 30 Dec 2008
Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Tues PM
A strong cold front will pass through our area about 10 AM Wednesday morning. Cold air will move in on strong winds during and after the frontal passage. The GFS and WRF models are cranking out about 0.10 inches of water falling as snow showers late morning on Wednesday. A coating of snow is possible Wed.
A coastal low will develop during a frontal passage on Friday afternoon. The models have been consistent with this low developing too late after the passage to affect our area, except for some light snow showers. Will keep an eye on this.
This weekend will be cold and dry, perhaps with some clouds on Sunday.
posted: Dec 30 2008 at 6:53 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Mon, 29 Dec 2008Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Mon PM
After over a week in warmer climes, I'll be returning home soon to an active weather pattern with a coastal storm expected to develop Friday into Saturday. Right now expected snow amounts don't appear very impressive for Philadelphia but I'll be keeping my eye on it. Updated on the road via iPhone.
posted: Dec 29 2008 at 5:18 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Sat, 20 Dec 2008Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Sat PM
Latest model data has almost .50 qpf water falling. Temps support more snow and sleet than rain. 2-4 inches snow possible. Ending about noon. Update via iPhone.
posted: Dec 20 2008 at 11:03 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Philadelphia Weather Weekend Forecast-Sat AM Update
Cold air has moved in today as a weak disturbance will cause light snow flurries (or freezing drizzle). A more intense (but fast moving) low approaching Saturday night will bring snow changing to sleet and then rain on Sunday. About 1-3 inches of snow and sleet before a changeover to rain later Sunday.
Update: Latest models are faster and colder for Sunday morning. Total QPF is about .40 inches water, over by 1 PM. Windy.
Sat 12/20: Cloudy with light snow showers or freezing drizzle possible during the day. Cold! High 31.
Sun 12/21: Snow before daybreak possibly 2-3 inches of snow and sleet, possibly mixed with rain, especially south. Ending after 1PM. Becoming windy. High 37.
I'll be away in warmer climes for the next week. May not have internet service but will check in if I do. New iPhone app will let me update the website remotely. Happy Holidays!
posted: Dec 20 2008 at 11:45 am
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Philadelphia Weather Weekend Forecast-Sat AM
Cold air has moved in today as a weak disturbance will cause light snow flurries (or freezing drizzle). A more intense (but fast moving) low approaching Saturday night will bring snow changing to sleet and then rain on Sunday. About 1-3 inches of snow and sleet before a changeover to rain later Sunday.
Sat 12/20: Cloudy with light snow showers or freezing drizzle possible during the day. Cold! High 31.
Sun 12/21: Snow before daybreak possibly 1-3 inches of snow and sleet before changing to rain in the late morning. High 39.
I'll be away in warmer climes for the next week. May not have internet service but will check in if I do. New iPhone app will let me update the website remotely. Happy Holidays!
posted: Dec 20 2008 at 6:58 am
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Fri, 19 Dec 2008Philadelphia Weather Weekend Forecast- Fri AM
A jet pattern reminiscent of 1994 (the ice storms and super cold temps) has set up where we continue to be on the border of cold and warm air.
After Friday's rain, cold air will move in on saturday as a weak disturbance causes snow showers on Saturday. Another intense low approaching Saturday night will bring snow changing eventually to rain on Sunday. About 1-3 inches of snow is possible before a change to sleet and rain Sunday.
Slight changes in position could affect our precipitation type, but right now, most of the precip will be in the form of rain.
Sat 12/20: Cloudy with light snow showers possible during the day. Cold! High 33.
Sun 12/21: Snow before daybreak possibly 1-3 inches before changing to sleet and then rain. High 40.
Read my winter climate prediction from my October 17th blog entry..
posted: Dec 19 2008 at 3:20 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Thu, 18 Dec 2008Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Thurs PM
The latest model data shows essentially a rain event for Fri. I don't think the temps in the city and immediate suburbs will allow much snow or sleet .
There is the possibility of some areas of surface icing early but expect mostly rain.
posted: Dec 18 2008 at 11:06 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Philadelphia Weather Weekend Forecast- Thur PM
A jet pattern reminiscent of 1994 (the ice storms and super cold temps) has set up where we continue to be on the border of cold and warm air.
Low pressure systems continue to develop along this jet boundary, with rain on Friday, snow showers on Saturday and light snow back to rain on Sunday.
Slight changes in position could affect our precipitation type, but right now, most of the precip will be in the form of rain.
Sat 12/20: Cloudy with light snow shower possible during the day. Cold! High 33.
Sun 12/21: Light snow will give way to sleet and then rain. High 40.
Read my winter climate prediction from my October 17th blog entry..
posted: Dec 18 2008 at 5:34 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Mon, 15 Dec 2008Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Mon PM
A frontal boundary is moving eastward through PA tonight, as low pressure moves up along the front. As cold air moves in, light precipitation in the form of rain will change and mix with sleet and freezing rain.i
This evening's WRF-NAM data just available. NO SNOW. Sleet early evening becomes RAIN towards midnight. This storm will be insignificant.
posted: Dec 15 2008 at 9:19 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Philadelphia Winter Weather Update- Mon PM
A frontal boundary is moving eastward through PA tonight, as low pressure moves up along the front. As cold air moves in, light precipitation in the form of rain will change and mix with sleet and freezing rain.
The atmospheric thermal profile suggests that snow is not possible, but temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere appear to be low enough for freezing rain and sleet to develop.
According to the WRF model, the immediate Philadelphia area may not have to deal with this difficult weather until Tuesday evening, although areas to the north and west will have the cold air filter during the late afternoon.
The latest WRF model has some fairly large amount of ice and sleet possibly falling Tuesday night, which means that the early commute on Wednesday may be difficult.
I'll update this situation.
posted: Dec 15 2008 at 6:10 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Sun, 14 Dec 2008Philadelphia Weather Week outlook -Sun PM
High pressure moves off the coast and warm air returns. The amplfied trough pattern that has been with us relaxes this week in the east as a trough develops in the west.
Cloudiness will be prominent as moisture returns with the cold air.
Read my winter climate prediction from my October 17th blog entry..
posted: Dec 14 2008 at 9:41 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Philadelphia Weather Week outlook -Sun PM
High pressure moves off the coast and warm air returns. The amplfied trough pattern that has been with us relaxes this week in the east as a trough develops in the west.
Cloudiness will be prominent as moisture returns with the cold air.
Read my winter climate prediction from my October 17th blog entry..
posted: Dec 14 2008 at 9:40 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Fri, 12 Dec 2008Philadelphia Weather Weekend Forecast- Fri PM
Cold air has filtered in behind the front that passed through earlier today. Dry conditions expected for the weekend. Warm air returning aloft on Sunday may result in some cloudiness.
Sat 12/13: Sunny and cold. High 39.
Sun 12/14: Partly cloudy and milder. High 47.
Read my winter climate prediction from my October 17th blog entry..
posted: Dec 12 2008 at 8:37 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Thu, 11 Dec 2008Philadelphia Weather Weekend Forecast- Thur AM
A rainy day today as low pressure moves up over us. Latest models have the rain lingering into late Friday morning. High pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday, but the amplified pattern that promised to give us very cold temps is relaxing somewhat with the latest model having milder temps for Sunday.
Sat 12/13: Sunny and cold. High 39.
Sun 12/14: Mostly sunny, some clouds, cold. High 46.
Read my winter climate prediction from my October 17th blog entry..
posted: Dec 11 2008 at 7:37 am
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Wed, 10 Dec 2008Cancel that snow- Wed AM
After roller coaster week of extreme temps, (today, expected to be near 65), colder air returns on Thursday into Friday. Timing and track of the expected coastal low has changed, with the low moving more inland and faster than previously thought. This will give us rain, ending early Friday. The precip may end as light snow Friday morning. Seasonably cold air for the weekend.
Sat 12/13: Sunny and seasonably cold. High 44.
Sun 12/14: Sunny and seasonably cold cold. High 46.
Read my winter climate prediction from myOctober 17th blog entry..
posted: Dec 10 2008 at 6:50 am
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Mon, 08 Dec 2008Possible Snow Fri Eve?- Mon PM
After a roller coaster week of extreme temps, (today, barely making it above 32, Wednesday expected to be near 60), cold air returns on Thursday. A coastal low (inverted trough type) is depicted by the GFS developing along the SE coast and moving northward towards us late Friday afternoon and into the evening. It is possible for snow or rain turning to snow. Exact configuration and track will determine and it's too early to call.
Sat 12/13: Clearing windy and cold. High 35.
Sun 12/14: Mostly sunny and cold. High 34.
Read my winter climate prediction from myOctober 17th blog entry..
posted: Dec 08 2008 at 8:52 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Sat, 06 Dec 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
A clipper disturbance and a coastal low (in the Atlantic) will interact on Saturday night and Sunday. There's the chance of snow showers Saturday evening. The models have less than 0.05 inches water falling as snow showers.
A warmup next week with rain will be followed by another blast of cold air for later next week. The cold pattern continues through the third week of December. Long range, we may get into a warmer pattern just before Xmas.
Sat 12/6: Sunny through early afternoon, then becoming cloudy. Chance of a light snow shower at night. High 40.
Sun 12/7: Cloudy early, then becoming mostly sunny and cold. Windy. High 36.
Is it true? OJ Simpson will be a spokesman for AT&T from prison? I heard somewhere that Simpson will will use their slogan, "more bars in more places". Has yet to be confirmed. :-)
posted: Dec 06 2008 at 8:25 am
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Thu, 04 Dec 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Thur PM
A front associated with a continuing highly amplified pattern in the eastern US will push through this evening and cold air will be filtering in for the next several days. A clipper disturbance and a coastal low (in the Atlantic) will interact on Saturday night and Sunday. There's the chance of snow showers, possibly giving a coating, late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It's unlikely that much will amount to this, but we need to watch the interaction between these systems.
A warmup next week with rain will be followed by another blast of cold air for later next week. The cold pattern continues through the third week of December. Long range, we may get into a warmer pattern just before Xmas.
Sat 12/6: Partly sunny/cloudy and cold. High 40. Chance of snow showers at night.
Sun 12/7: Cloudy early, some snow showers possible, then a mix of clouds and some sun. Windy. High 36.
An anomalous lull in the sunspot number has resulted in many months of reduced solar energy reaching us. I believe this will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. I first predicted this scenario in my October 17th blog entry.. This is going to be a very interesting winter.
posted: Dec 04 2008 at 8:19 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Wed, 03 Dec 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM
While we will have some relaxation of the winter pattern through Thursday (with temps approaching 50), winter will begin to make itself felt again over the weekend and for early next week. A deep trough will develop over us for the weekend and a clipper type disturbance will bring some clouds and a snow shower possible.
The current models show less of a deep trough for the weekend, meaning that temps won't fall as low as previously thought. A clipper disturbance may bring a snow shower or flurry for Sunday morning.
Sat 12/6: Partly sunny/cloudy and cold. High 41.
Sun 12/7: A mix of sun and clouds. Windy. Chance of a snow shower in the morning. High 40.
An anomalous lull in the sunspot number has resulted in many months of reduced solar energy reaching us. I believe this will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. I first predicted this scenario in my October 17th blog entry.. This is going to be a very interesting winter.
posted: Dec 03 2008 at 8:31 am
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Mon, 01 Dec 2008Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Mon PM
While we will have some relaxation of the winter pattern through Thursday (with temps approaching 50), winter will begin to make itself felt again over the weekend and for early next week.
The pattern this late fall/early winter has been different than many recent previous early winters with significant cold air masses moving down from Canada and a pronounced upper air trough pattern that shows no sign of abating. Very cold air is expected by Sunday and the chance of light snow with our first Alberta clipper system is likely in the time frame from next Sunday through Tuesday.
The pattern is consistent with a low solar output of many months. This winter promises to be a doozy.
Sat 12/6: Tentative: Partly cloudy and cold. High 42.
Sun 12/7: Tentative: Partly sunny and very cold. High 34.
An anomalous lull in the sunspot number has resulted in many months of reduced solar energy reaching us. I believe this will give us an unseasonably cold (and stormy) winter. I first predicted this scenario in my October 17th blog entry.. This is going to be a very interesting winter.
posted: Dec 01 2008 at 8:48 pm
[/weather/dec08] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.