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Fri, 30 Apr 2010
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri PM
A southwesterly flow around a Bermuda-like high pressure system will bring warm and sunny conditions for Saturday. An approaching low pressure with a cold front will bring increasing clouds and showers/thunderstorms late afternoon or very early evening
Sat 5/1: Mostly sunny and very warm. High 87
Sun 5/2: Some sun early, then increasing cloudiness. Chance of showers or thundershowers late. High 85.
Solar Climate Discussion: I've gone climate temperature neutral as we wait to see if the recent solar minimum has affected our temperatures. Recently, solar activity has taken another break, and there has been a string of spotless days and lowered solar irradiance.
posted: Apr 30 2010 at 10:12 pm
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Thu, 29 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Thur PM
A southwesterly flow around a Bermuda-like high pressure system will bring warm and sunny conditions for Saturday. An approaching low pressure system will shear it's energy off to our north on Sunday, although there is still is a 33% chance of showers later on Sunday as a cold front approaches.
Sat 5/1: Mostly sunny and very warm. High 87
Sun 5/2: Sunny through early afternoon, then increasing cloudiness late in the afternoon. Chance of showers or thundershowers late. High 87.
Solar Climate Discussion: I've gone climate temperature neutral as we wait to see if the recent solar minimum has affected our temperatures. Recently, solar activity has taken another break, and there has been a string of spotless days and lowered solar irradiance.
posted: Apr 29 2010 at 10:09 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Thurs AM
A southwesterly flow around a Bermuda-like high pressure system will bring warm and sunny conditions for Saturday. An approaching low pressure system will shear it's energy off to our north on Sunday, although there is still is a chance of showers later on Sunday as a cold front pushes through.
Sat 5/1: Mostly sunny and very warm. High 87
Sun 5/2: A mix of sun and clouds early, then increasing cloudinesss. Chance of showers or thundershowers. High 86
Solar Climate Discussion: I've gone climate temperature neutral as we wait to see if the recent solar minimum has affected our temperatures. Recently, solar activity has taken another break, and there has been a string of spotless days and lowered solar irradiance.
posted: Apr 29 2010 at 7:36 am
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Tue, 27 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tue PM
A southwesterly flow around a Bermuda-like high pressure system will bring warm and sunny conditions for Saturday. An approaching low pressure system will shear it's energy off to our north on Sunday, although there is still is a chance of showers on Sunday.
Sat 5/1: Mostly sunny and warm. High 81
Sun 5/2: Clouds, maybe some sun. Chance of showers. High 78
Looking at the long range models show an unsettled and damp pattern for the end of April into May with a cool-down the first week of May.
posted: Apr 27 2010 at 9:45 pm
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Sat, 24 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat PM
The rain came in slightly ahead of schedule. The models continue with the heaviest rain during the overnight hours, with a break in the action during the mid day and afternoon hours on Sunday. I thought there might be some sun during the afternoon on Sunday, but with an easterly flow instead of a southerly flow, the low level clouds might not break. Instead, some drizzle may remain. More rain returns for Sunday night and Monday.
Sun 4/25: Heavy rains end in the early morning, then cloudy and damp. Some bright spots in the cloud cover possible in the afternoon. High near 60.
Looking at the long range models show an unsettled and damp pattern for the end of April into May with a cool-down the first week of May.
posted: Apr 24 2010 at 10:00 pm
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Fri, 23 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Low pressure system will slowly approach from the midwest and will rotate small areas of moisture into our area over the weekend. The GFS and NAM models have the rain waiting until the evening on Saturday, possibly as late as 9 PM. Both models also agree that the heavy rain will over by early Sunday morning. While the models continue with damp conditions and low clouds for Sunday, it would not surprise me if there's some sun that breaks out in the afternoon.
Sat 4/24: Some sun in the morning, becoming increasingly cloudy during the afternoon. Showers during the evening. High 69.
Sun 4/25: Heavy rains end in the early morning, then cloudy and damp. Some breaks of sun possible afternoon. High near 70.
Looking at the long range models show an unsettled and damp pattern for the end of April into May with a cool-down the first week of May.
posted: Apr 23 2010 at 4:15 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
Low pressure system will slowly approach from the midwest and will rotate small areas of moisture into our area over the weekend. Exact timing of the showers for Saturday and Sunday remains uncertain, but expect the later part of the weekend to be damp and unsettled.
Sat 4/24: Some sun in the morning, becoming increasingly cloudy during the afternoon. Showers during the evening. High 69. .
Sun 4/25: Rain in the morning, ending early afternoon. Some breaks of sun possible afternoon. High near 70.
Looking at the long range models show an unsettled and damp pattern for the end of April into May with a cool-down the first week of May.
posted: Apr 23 2010 at 3:58 pm
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Wed, 21 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Low pressure system will slowly approach from the midwest and will rotate small areas of moisture into our area over the weekend. Exact timing of the showers for Saturday and Sunday remains uncertain, but expect the later part of the weekend to be damp and unsettled.
Sat 4/24: Some sun in the morning, chance of a shower later in the afternoon. High 69. .
Sun 4/25: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Cooler, high 60.
Looking at the long range models show an unsettled and damp pattern for the end of April into May with a cool-down the first week of May.
posted: Apr 21 2010 at 10:50 pm
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Mon, 19 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Mon PM
This week will be characterized by a cool flow and slight upper trough that relaxes over time. A low pressure system will slowly approach from the midwest and will rotate small areas of moisture into our area over the weekend. Exact timing of the showers for Saturday and Sunday is uncertain, but expect the weekend to be damp and unsettled.
Look for changes and clarification as the weekend approaches.
posted: Apr 19 2010 at 8:28 pm
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Fri, 16 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
The cold front is moving through this evening. The latest NAM model has it dry for Saturday, although the winds will pick up and temps will be in the 50's. It will feel more like March instead of April Cold air aloft will result in significant instability cloudiness, as billowy cumulus clouds will block out sunshine for periods during the day. The winds will subside on Sunday, making it seem warmer, but the upper air closing off low may continue to provide periods of clouds.
Sat 4/17: Slight chance of lingering sprinkles in the morning. Considerable cloudiness, some breaks of sun, windy, colder. High 56.
Sun 4/18: Partly sunny/partly cloudy and continued cool. High 57.
posted: Apr 16 2010 at 10:14 pm
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Thu, 15 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast
A cold front moves through our area before daybreak on Saturday Most of the shower activity moves through before daybreak on Saturday, but the GFS MOS continues to show a slight chance of showers on Saturday early Saturday morning. Most of Saturday will be dry, but windy conditions and colder temps will put a dent in the springlike temps we've enjoyed. Cold air aloft will result in significant instability cloudiness, as billowy cumulus clouds will block out sunshine for periods during the day. The winds will subside on Sunday, making it seem warmer, but the upper air closing off low may continue to provide periods of clouds.
Sat 4/17: Slight chance of lingering sprinkles in the morning. Considerable cloudiness, some breaks of sun, windy, colder. High 57.
Sun 4/18: Partly sunny/partly cloudy and continued cool. High 57.
posted: Apr 15 2010 at 8:36 pm
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Wed, 14 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast
The warmer temperatures we've been used to for a few weeks will take a hiatus, as a cold front moves through our area late Friday. Most of the shower activity moves through late Friday and before daybreak on Saturday, but the GFS MOS continues to show a slight chance of showers on Saturday. Most of Saturday will be dry, but windy conditions and colder temps will put a dent in the springlike temps we've enjoyed. The winds will subside on Sunday, making it seem warmer.
Sat 4/17: A mix of clouds and sun, windy, colder. Slight chance of a shower. High 58.
Sun 4/18: Sunny and continued cool. High 57.
posted: Apr 14 2010 at 7:16 pm
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Fri, 09 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast
High pressure will build in for the weekend. While temperatures will be lower over the weekend than this past week, temps will still average several degrees above normal.
Sat 4/10: Sunny and pleasant. High 65
Sun 4/11: Sunny and mild. High 70
posted: Apr 09 2010 at 3:59 pm
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Wed, 07 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook - Thur
A weak cold front will move through on Thursday night. High pressure will build in for the weekend. While temperatures are expected to be lower over the weekend, they will still average several degrees above normal.
Sat 4/10: Sunny and pleasant. High 67
Sun 4/11: Sunny and mild. High 69
posted: Apr 07 2010 at 6:12 pm
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Climate Discussion 4-8-10
Since last summer, I have been forecasting that the prolonged period of relative solar inactivity that corresponded with the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24 would result in cooler temperatures for the fall and winter of 2009-2010. This would occur despite the warming influence of an El ni\361o and greenhouse gases. While the evidence for this trend doesn't necessarily show in Philadelphia's climate data, it certainly shows in areas of the southeastern US.
The solar minimum truly ended in December of 2009 with the increase in sunspots that was observed hailing the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.
Solar cycle 24 has truly ramped up, although many predict that this cycle's maximum will be lower than previous cycles during the past 30 years.
With the recent increase in solar activity and solar wind, are the effects of the this lull in activity gone? Do the low solar flux effects accumulate, or are they subtle, and with the increase in recent activity, the effects become unnoticeable? With such a mild March, is the hypothesized cooling from last year's low solar irradiance proven false?
These are questions that scientists who study solar effects of climate are trying to answer. I certainly don't have the answer. I see the year 2010 as a year that will provide clues. One thing that has impressed me is how little the average temperatures were depressed by the lowered solar irradiance. This suggests that either the"solar effect" is minimal or, more likely, the greenhouse signal is able to overshadow the the lowered solar effect.
So my current solar-climate prediction is somewhat of a hedge and I'm calling for neutral trends and average temperatures. Again, I think 2010 will be a telling year regarding climate trends and the immediate effects of global warming.
posted: Apr 07 2010 at 4:19 pm
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Sat, 03 Apr 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
Been a busy week and this is the first I've looked at the weather.
Those high clouds yesterday afternoon represented an unexpected cold frontal boundary. It looks like weak cold boundary moved through last night and stalled just south of Philadelphia. The boundary is returning as a warm front, giving us fog and clouds this morning. The GFS MOS data captures this cloudiness and fog pretty well. The warm front is expected to move further to our north, letting a southwesterly flow of continued mild air to influence our weather. (This small scale feature wasn't well captured by the models. The movement north of this warm front is expected this afternoon, but sometimes it gets slowed down, which could cause lingering clouds and cool temps. )
Sat 4/3: Cloudy with some fog, clearing during the afternoon. Cool early, warming later int he afternoon. High 70.
Sun 4/4: Sunny and mild. High 74
posted: Apr 03 2010 at 8:27 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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