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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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theweatherguy's website,

"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."

Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Thu, 25 Oct 2012
Hurricane Sandy Update- Thurs Eve
The latest NOGAPS model continues to forecast explosive cyclogenesis with Sandy, as a transition from a hurricane to an extratropical monster Nor'easter occurs off of the NJ/DE shoreline and then negatively tilts toward a westward track into Pennsylvania! High winds and flooding rains still predicted to occur, with possibly devastating effects at the shore due to high astronomical tides associated with a full moon. The timeframe of the NOGAPS brings the storm into NJ/PA late Sunday into Monday, with rain as early as Saturday evening.
The latest GFS model has a somewhat similar track as the NOGAPS, BUT is slower in bringing the storm into the NJ coast. It has the storm not moving inland until Monday night and Tuesday morning. Incredibly, the GFS model has the storm even stronger than the NOGAPS!
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
The current track on the NOGAPS is now being adopted by the National Hurricane center, which has an increasingly similar track. This remains to be a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm and needs to be watched. Updates tomorrow.

posted: Oct 25 2012 at 7:44 pm

[/weather/oct12] permanent link

Hurricane Sandy Update- Thurs PM
The latest NOGAPS model continues to forecast explosive cyclogenesis with Sandy, as a transition from a hurricane to an extratropical monster Nor'easter occurs off of the NJ/DE shoreline and then negatively tilts toward a westward track into Pennsylvania! High winds and flooding rains still predicted to occur, with possibly devastating effects at the shore due to high astronomical tides associated with a full moon. The big change is the timeframe, which now is now similar to the slower GFS model, with the peak effects occuring Sunday night into Monday, as it comes onshore. The other change is the appearance that it may stay more tropical and somewhat smaller upon landfall, and then become more extratropical and larger in structure and size.
The current track on the NOGAPS is now being adopted by the National Hurricane center, which has an increasingly similar track. This remains to be a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm and needs to be watched. Updates later.

posted: Oct 25 2012 at 12:52 pm

[/weather/oct12] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Thu, 25 Oct 2012 Hurricane Sandy Update- Thurs Eve The latest NOGAPS model continues to forecast explosive cyclogenesis with Sandy, as a transition from a hurricane to an extratropical monster Nor'easter occurs off of the NJ/DE shoreline and then negatively tilts toward a westward track into Pennsylvania! High winds and flooding rains still predicted to occur, with possibly devastating effects at the shore due to high astronomical tides associated with a full moon. The timeframe of the NOGAPS brings the storm into NJ/PA late Sunday into Monday, with rain as early as Saturday evening. The latest GFS model has a somewhat similar track as the NOGAPS, BUT is slower in bringing the storm into the NJ coast. It has the storm not moving inland until Monday night and Tuesday morning. Incredibly, the GFS model has the storm even stronger than the NOGAPS! I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model. The current track on the NOGAPS is now being adopted by the National Hurricane center, which has an increasingly similar track. This remains to be a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm and needs to be watched. Updates tomorrow. posted: Oct 25 2012 at 7:44 pm [/weather/oct12] permanent link Hurricane Sandy Update- Thurs PM The latest NOGAPS model continues to forecast explosive cyclogenesis with Sandy, as a transition from a hurricane to an extratropical monster Nor'easter occurs off of the NJ/DE shoreline and then negatively tilts toward a westward track into Pennsylvania! High winds and flooding rains still predicted to occur, with possibly devastating effects at the shore due to high astronomical tides associated with a full moon. The big change is the timeframe, which now is now similar to the slower GFS model, with the peak effects occuring Sunday night into Monday, as it comes onshore. The other change is the appearance that it may stay more tropical and somewhat smaller upon landfall, and then become more extratropical and larger in structure and size. The current track on the NOGAPS is now being adopted by the National Hurricane center, which has an increasingly similar track. This remains to be a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm and needs to be watched. Updates later. posted: Oct 25 2012 at 12:52 pm [/weather/oct12] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.