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Miscellaneous
Wed, 30 Sep 2009
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes will rotate moisture into our area on Saturday and possibly Sunday. It's not completely clear to me how this is going to play out, since I believe the models might be over-estimating the rain on Saturday. Will have to keep an eye on this.
Sat 10/3: Cloudy with showers, especially during the morning hours. Not sure if we'll have continuous rain; there could very well be some breaks in the overcast. High 74
Sun 10/4: Partly cloudy/sunny, chance of a shower. High 77.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
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posted: Sep 30 2009 at 7:31 pm
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Sun, 27 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Sun AM
Low pressure that formed along the front last night is delaying its departure. Moisture continues to stream up from VA and the GFS LAMPS forecast has showers until 1PM (especially from PHL eastward). POPs remain high even through 3PM.
So the original forecast of a sunny afternoon will only be true in a technical sense, since we may not see any sun until 4-6 PM. West of PHL, things may dry out and clear a bit earlier. East of PHL, the clearing may be further delayed.
Sun 9/27: Cloudy with showers, tapering about 1-2PM, then slow clearing with sun possibly breaking through during the very late afternoon. High 72
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
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posted: Sep 27 2009 at 8:12 am
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Sat, 26 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Sat PM
Both the NAM and GFS models have heavy rains for tonight, starting about 7-9 PM. The GFS continues with rain through Sunday morning and it may be until noon or 1 PM before the rain stops. (Sometimes) the GFS over-extends the rain period, so we'll see if this is the case tomorrow.
Sat 9/26: Rain starts about 7-9 PM.
Sun 9/27: Cloudy with rain ending about noon, then slow clearing with sun breaking through during the late afternoon. High 72
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 26 2009 at 4:47 pm
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Fri, 25 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Fri PM
Saturday is looking better, as the GFS and NAM models have delayed the rain until after 8PM at night. The NAM is forecasting extremely heavy rain Saturday night, while the GFS has much less. Both models have the rain ending during the morning hours on Sunday, with the NAM a bit more delayed. We should see some sun again Sunday afternoon, likely after 2 PM.
Sat 9/26: Some sun early, then increasing cloudiness during the late morning and early afternoon. Then cloudy late afternoon. Rain, possibly heavy, during the evening and at night. High 70.
Sun 9/27: Cloudy with lingering showers early morning, then clearing with sun breaking through during the afternoon. High 75
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 25 2009 at 5:10 pm
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Wed, 23 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
A blocked weather pattern will give us unsettled weather through Friday, but the amount of rain/showers will be very limited. High pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday, ahead of an advancing weak frontal boundary. Moisture will increase significantly ahead of the front and a rain Saturday night is likely. Things clear out for the afternoon on Sunday.
Sat 9/26: Sunny early, then increasing clouds with rain by late afternoon or early evening. Current models have the rain starting 4-5 PM {+- 1 hour}. Cool. High 68.
Sun 9/27: Cloudy early then clearing with sunshine by afternoon. High 79
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 23 2009 at 8:14 pm
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Tue, 22 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues PM
A blocked weather pattern will give us unsettled weather through Friday, but the amount of rain/showers will be very limited. High pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday, ahead of an advancing weak frontal boundary. Moisture will increase significantly ahead of the front and a rain Saturday night is likely. Things clear out for the afternoon on Sunday.
Sat 9/26: Sunny early, then increasing clouds with rain by late afternoon or early evening. Most of the day dry. High 74.
Sun 9/27: Cloudy early then clearing with sunshine by afternoon. High 73
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 22 2009 at 8:49 pm
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Solar - Climate Forecast for 2009-2010
The solar activity that had been detected on far side of the sun from the STEREO satellites and the GONG research group. has rotated into earth view. An additional spotted region has also developed today. Solar flux remains low, but has had a recent increase with the spotted region.
It is appears likely Solar Cycle 24 has truly begun, albeit a year or two late. Solar activity has remained low for such a long time that the effects of low solar irradiance will still affect our climate in the short term.
We will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the fall and early winter, although things will begin to change as the sun becomes more active. While we will certainly see some typical warmer weather stretches, continue to expect a cooler than normal fall on average.
This colder pattern will likely extend well into the early winter period, with things possibly changing late winter. It's still possible that we my have a record cold early winter this year.
posted: Sep 22 2009 at 8:47 pm
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Fri, 18 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
A large high pressure system will move over us for the weekend, bringing beautiful late summer/early fall weather to our area.
Sat 9/19: Sunny and delightful. High 76.
Sun 9/20: Sunny and milder. High 78.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 18 2009 at 8:36 am
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Wed, 16 Sep 2009Solar - Climate Forecast for 2009-2010
The visible sun remains spotless, although a recent increase in solar activity has been detected on far side of the sun from the STEREO satellites and the GONG research group. Solar flux remains low (below 70), but has shown signs of a gradual increase.
It is appears possible that Solar Cycle 24 will begin in earnest shortly. Nonetheless, activity has remained so low that the depressed effects of low solar irradiance will still likely affect our climate in the short term.
Due to this lull in the the sunspot cycle, I believe we will remain in an climatically cool weather pattern for the fall and the winter. While we will certainly see some typical warmer weather stretches, continue to expect a cooler than normal fall on average.
This colder pattern will likely extend well into the early winter period, with things possibly changing late winter. It's possible that we my have a record cold early winter this year.
posted: Sep 16 2009 at 9:42 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Wed PM
After we get rid of this easterly flow on Friday evening, a large high pressure system will move over us for the weekend, bringing beautiful late summer/early fall weather to our area.
Sat 9/19: Sunny and crisp. High 76.
Sun 9/20: Sunny and milder. High 80.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 16 2009 at 9:38 pm
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Sun, 13 Sep 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Sun Eve
We finally got some sunny, dry weather today and it will persist until late Tuesday. Our weather repeats with what is often a late October/November scenario with high pressure moving off to the NE and an easterly flow develops combining with moisture moving up from the south. Several more days of cloudy, wet weather for Wednesday through Friday. Not sure how things clear for Saturday.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 13 2009 at 6:24 pm
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Fri, 11 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
The tropical low combined with the upper low that is giving us all of the wet weather today is expected to move out to the NE later tonight. An upper cyclonic flow will remain, though. The models maintain a signficant amount of low cloudiness on Saturday, although little rain is expected (possibly a few quick spits.)
A tough forecast, since upper lows and tropical lows can be difficult to nail down. (Although the models, particularly, the NOGAPS, did a great job in predicting the heavy rain waiting for early today.)
Sat 9/12: Low cloudiness, cool and damp. Possibly some bright breaks during the day. A light sprinkle can't be ruled out. High 72
Sun 9/13: Early morning clouds break to partly sunny conditions and milder. High near 80.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 11 2009 at 11:51 am
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Sun, 06 Sep 2009Labor Day Weekend Forecast Update- Sun AM
As expected, high pressure brought perfect conditions for today, Saturday. However, the trajectory of the high will move it to the NE, giving us an easterly flow.
The GFS and NAM have partly cloudy conditions for today and cloudy conditions on Monday.
Sun 9/6: Sunny early, then increasing middle level cloudiness with partly cloudy conditions by the afternoon. High 83.
Mon 9/7: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late or at night. High 80.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 06 2009 at 9:23 am
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Sat, 05 Sep 2009Labor Day Weekend Forecast Update- Sat PM
As expected, high pressure brought perfect conditions for today, Saturday. However, the trajectory of the high will move it to the NE, giving us an easterly flow.
The GFS and NAM show considerable clouds for Sunday and Monday, with the GFS a bit more optimistic about sunshine. These sort of situations are tough to call.
Tonight's NAM data just becoming available continues to show increasing clouds for Sunday. No rain is expected.
Sun 9/6: Sunny early, then increasing middle level cloudiness with mostly cloudy conditions by the mid afternoon. Some sunny breaks possible. (More sunshine to the west of Phila.) High 81.
Mon 9/7: Considerable cloudiness. High 81.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 05 2009 at 10:25 pm
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Fri, 04 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Fri PM
High pressure will build in for the weekend. High pressure usually means fair skies, but the latest trends has the core of the high moving to our northeast. This would result in an easterly flow off the ocean. This easterly flow can bring in low clouds, especially nearer the coast, and even some light showers. Right now, the best days will be Saturday and Sunday with the easterly flow bringing more clouds for Monday.
Sat 9/5: Mostly sunny and warm. High 87
Sun 9/6: Partly cloudy/partly sunny. High 83.
Mon 9/7: Considerable cloudiness, chance of a light shower. High 81.
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 04 2009 at 3:00 pm
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Wed, 02 Sep 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook-Wed PM
A beautiful fall-like weather map for Labor Day Weekend, as a large high pressure system will descend on us from Canada, providing fair weather and any blocking moisture from reaching us for several days.
Sat 9/5: Sunny and pleasant. High 83
Sun 9/6: Sunny and pleasant. High 84
Mon 9/7: Sunny and pleasant. High 83
Read my most recent climate discussion here.
Follow me on Twitter as theweatherguy for on-the-fly weather updates and observations.
posted: Sep 02 2009 at 7:47 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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