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Fri, 26 Oct 2012
Severe Storm Sandy Update- Fri 11PM
The latest NAM model just available supports the NOGAPS in timing with Sandy coming onshore (in cental NJ) about 6 pm Monday evening. New NOGAPS wont be avaiable until after midnight.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 11:31 pm
[/weather/oct12] permanent link
Severe Storm Sandy Update- Fri Eve
This afternoon's model runs are in- the NOGAPS continues with the storm retrograding towards the NJ coast and over Philadelphia! The ECMWF is similar to the NOGAPS. The GFS brings it up further towards Long Island, but retrogrades it back towards NJ and Pennsylvania.
Earlier today, it appeared that the trend was a bit away from us and less intense, but these model runs restore the storm track and intensity to that expected yesterday.
The big issue still is timing, with the NOGAPS at least 12 hours earlier with the storm than the GFS. The NOGAPS has landfall in NJ early evening Monday, while the GFS has it waiting until Tuesday morning. That said, the early effects of the storm will be felt by Monday morning, with rain starting as early as Sunday afternoon. Updates late tonight or tomorrow morning.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 7:53 pm
[/weather/oct12] permanent link
Severe Storm Sandy Update- Fri Afternoon
The latest models are looking more optimistic for our PHL area, keeping Sandy off the coast to the vicinity of Long Island, then retrograding it westward to Northern NJ. This would keep a direct strike away from our area. Both the NOGAPS, NAM and GFS seem to have made this change. Updates later.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model. Updates later.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 12:52 pm
[/weather/oct12] permanent link
Severe Storm Sandy Commentary- Fri AM
From a meteorologist's point of view, this upcoming storm will be very impressive and interesting. Barometers will be pinned to very low readings and the duration of the storm will be memorable.
Looking over the models and expected surface features (wind, rain), I don't believe we, in the immediate Philadelphia area and suburbs, will see hurricane force winds or items being blow across streets.
The main concerns with this storm in the PHL area will be the long duration of heavy rain, stream and urban flooding, and power disruptions from trees. Rainfall totals are likely to be 6-12 inches with locally higher amounts by sometime Tuesday. With so many leaves falling from trees, and trees falling as well, obstruction of normal street draining will be the main difficult, making driving extremely hazardous. In center city, you are in an area that doesn't experience frequent power disruptions, this will just be a very miserable two or three days of wind-swept rains.
At the immediate NJ shore, things will be more significant with, higher winds, flooding and possibly significant wind damage.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model. Updates later.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 11:36 am
[/weather/oct12] permanent link
Severe Storm Sandy Update- Fri AM
There have been few changes in the models from yesterday, although the GFS and NOGAPS models are more similar in time frame a bit- the real action begins Sunday evening and continues through Monday. The NOGAPS continues to bring the hurricane/extratropical storm into NJ and PA, while the GFS keeps the storm off shore until almost NYC, then retrogrades it into NJ/PA. Both models show explosive cyclogeneis of the tropical system into an extratropically structured Nor'easter. The NOGAPS shows earlier weakening on Tuesday, while the GFS maintains a deep active cyclonic structure through early Wednesday.
Sat 10/27: Cloudy and mild. Some light showers late in the day. High 70
Sun 10/28: Cloudy with light showers, becoming heavier in the evening. Winds start increasing during the afternoon and evening. High 60.
Mon 10/29: Depending on the track- Severe Nor'easter- heaviest rains and strong winds either in the morning (NOGAPS or in the afternoon and evening (GFS model). High 59. Winds 30-40mph with higher gusts. Locally heavy rains, some flooding in urban areas possible. Stormy conditions continue into Tuesday.
I've been tracking this since Tuesday -- Here are background posts regarding the storm where my bets have been on the NOGAPS model.
The current track on the NOGAPS is now being adopted by the National Hurricane center, which has an increasingly similar track. This remains to be a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm and needs to be watched. Updates tomorrow.
posted: Oct 26 2012 at 9:57 am
[/weather/oct12] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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