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Miscellaneous
Tue, 31 Jul 2007
Week Weather Outlook- Tues
Not much happening weatherwise this week, as a typical Bermuda high pressure system will bring hot summer weather to us. The weekend currently looks mostly sunny and hot. The usual chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, but most places dry.
posted: Jul 31 2007 at 7:52 pm
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Sun, 29 Jul 2007Weekend Forecast- Sun Update
The latest NAM has precip shutting down after 2-3PM...the GFS continues the current intensity of rain through this afternoon into Monday afternoon. The current radar favors the pessimistic GFS. So if the GFS prevails, it will be a rain out.
Sun 7/29: Cloudy with showers and some embedded thunderstorms through this afternoon. High 86
posted: Jul 29 2007 at 11:10 am
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Weekend Forecast- Sun AM
The area of showers/thunderstorms predicted by the NAM and GFS has formed to our south and west and will move through this morning into mid-day.
The NAM doesn't crank out any more thunderstorms for the later part of the afternoon, but instabililty and lift values suggest the chance of more heavy thunderstorms.
Sun 7/29: A mix of clouds and sun; showers/thunderstorms likely late morning or early afternoon. While more thunderstorms possible after 2 PM, the models don't explicitly show this. Humid. High 86
posted: Jul 29 2007 at 6:35 am
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Sat, 28 Jul 2007Weekend Forecast- Sat PM
On Sunday, both the NAM and GFS crank out some precipitation in the late morning/early afternoon. The amounts aren't particularly impressive, but I do expect some showers and thunderstorms mid-day on Sunday. While the NWS and Accuweather have been hyping the rain prospects for Sunday, I don't see anything in the model numbers that is extremely impressive. (We'll see if the impressive heavy rains develop.)
The upper low is now over New England and an upper trough is over us. The GFS wasn't particularly wet today, and despite pesimistic forecasts from Accuweather and the NWS, we didn't have any thunderstorms today.
posted: Jul 28 2007 at 8:43 pm
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Weekend Forecast- Sat AM
Upper low pressure continues to affect us. Forecast confidence still low.
Sat 7/28: Latest GFS has it much drier today. Slight chance of a shower this morning, then partly cloudy/partly sunny. Showers at night. High 89
Sun 7/29: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day. High 83
posted: Jul 28 2007 at 5:24 am
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Fri, 27 Jul 2007Weekend Forecast- Fri PM
Upper lows are notoriously difficult to forecast and the models haven't done too well this past week, so confidence in the forecast this weekend isn't extremely high. At times, the GFS has done well this week; other times the WRF-NAM. And sometimes, neither model got it right.
A closed upper low is moving across NY State. This low had been stalled over Michigan for the past week.
As the low slowly passes us by to our north, we'll become entrapped in the upper low circulation, allowing showers and thunderstorms to form over us, especially if sunshine breaks through the clouds. Difficult to time exactly, but the GFS has some light rain Saturday morning and heavier thunderstorms more likely after 3 PM Saturday.
posted: Jul 27 2007 at 9:46 pm
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Weather Update - Fri PM
I've been taking a break this month from predicting the weather. It's a good thing, since the models have been doing a terrible job, especially this week, in predicting the movement and dissolution of the upper low over the Midwest.
The models are showing a heavy rain event sometime this weekend, especially for New Jersey. Our first thunderstorms will be moving through tonight.
posted: Jul 27 2007 at 4:19 pm
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Tue, 17 Jul 2007Week Weather Outlook- Tues AM
The frontal boundary just to our south moved a bit further south last night, removing the chance of thundershowers for us last night and today. This was different than predicted by the models.
The front is still expected to be a focal point for upper air disturbances over the next few days, giving us a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The models haven't done that well with the position of the front, so timing which day we'll have showers/thunderstorms is uncertain.
This coming weekend looks much better than it did yesterday. The upper low isn't expected to form over us, and the rainstorm that looked so impressive doesn't look like it will develop. The weekend looks pretty good at this time.
posted: Jul 17 2007 at 6:46 am
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Sun, 15 Jul 2007Week Weather Outlook- Sunday PM
Latest surface data suggests that the frontal boundary moving through is beginning to trigger showers and thunderstorms this evening. The models didn't show this.
The GFS and WRF-NAM have been showing a frontal boundary to slip to our south on Monday, and then waves of low pressure will form along this boundary, probably getting kicked back as a warm front Monday night.
We'll likely have some heavy thunderstorms Monday evening into night and there's some suggestion that showers and thunderstorms will be around much of Tuesday. (The NAM has thunderstorms late afternoon on Monday.)
Timing this sort of situation is difficult, but expect some soggy conditions on and off for the next several days.
posted: Jul 15 2007 at 8:22 pm
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Week Weather Outlook- Sunday
The models have been doing quite well with the forecast for this weekend. The humidity returned, just as expected today.
The GFS and WRF-NAM have been showing a frontal boundary to slip to our south on Monday, and then waves of low pressure will form along this boundary, probably getting kicked back as a warm front Monday night.
We'll likely have some heavy thunderstorms Monday evening into night and there's some suggestion that showers and thunderstorms will be around much of Tuesday. (The NAM has thunderstorms late afternoon on Monday.)
Timing this sort of situation is difficult, but expect some soggy conditions on and off for the next several days.
posted: Jul 15 2007 at 3:35 pm
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Sat, 14 Jul 2007Weekend Forecast- Sat AM
A typical summer pattern for the weekend. Temperatures will be near 90 with increasing humidity on Sunday. A weak trough moves through Sunday night. Scattered showers possible.
Sat 7/14: Mostly sunny and very warm. High upper 80s
Sun 7/15: Partly sunny, hot and humid. High near 90.
posted: Jul 14 2007 at 7:40 am
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Fri, 13 Jul 2007Weekend Forecast- Fri AM
A typical summer pattern for the weekend. Temperatures will be near 90 with increasing humidity on Sunday. A weak trough moves through Sunday night. Scattered showers possible.
Looking at the models for next week, a weak front boundary stalled to our south may give a chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of next week.
Sat 7/14: Mostly sunny and very warm. High near 90.
Sun 7/15: Partly sunny, warm and humid. High near 90. Increasing clouds in the late afternoon.
posted: Jul 13 2007 at 7:28 am
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Wed, 11 Jul 2007Weather Outlook- Wed AM
Today's WRF high resolution model has thunderstorms forming to our west by 3-4 PM and slowing marching through as they intensify- the immediate Philadelphia area and suburbs will be socked by intense thunderstorms between 4:30PM and 7 PM. The model shows these storms to be very intense, in fact, I haven't seen this model show such an intense line for our area in a long time. The most severe activity will, according to the model, be in Bucks and Lehigh counties.
posted: Jul 11 2007 at 6:15 am
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Tue, 10 Jul 2007Weather Outlook- Tues PM
The WRF model correctly predicted today's thunderstorms. When I first looked at the model output this morning, I was wondering if they would really form as shown.
The dynamics for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday are fairly impressive, so expect activity tomorrow. There's even a chance of thunderstorms in the morning!
I'll update tomorrow morning.
posted: Jul 10 2007 at 8:24 pm
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Sun, 08 Jul 2007Weather Outlook- Sun AM
The GFS model output statistics (MOS) has the high temperature for Monday at 101. Lately, the GFS MOS has been overstating the high temps, so high 90s is a better bet. (The NAM/Eta MOS has a high of 97 for Monday.)
Hot weather through Wednesday, when a cold front moves through Wednesday evening.
posted: Jul 08 2007 at 7:10 am
[/weather/july07] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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