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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Miscellaneous
Sat, 29 Oct 2005
Saturday Weather Update
A lingering upper level low pressure system may allow some clouds to mix with sunshine today. Things clear on Sunday.
posted: Oct 29 2005 at 6:52 am
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Fri, 28 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather - Sat 10/29 and Sun 10/30
Sat 10/22: Mostly sunny and cool. High upper 50s to near 60.
Sun 10/23: Sunny and warmer. High in the upper 60s to near 70.
A closed upper low and low pressure departs on Friday, allowing high pressure to build directly over us for the weekend. Beautiful weather, cool on Saturday, but warming on Sunday.
posted: Oct 28 2005 at 7:18 am
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Mon, 24 Oct 2005Monday Weather Update
The remnant moisture tonight is being brought into our area by a closed upper low pressure system in Ohio, as the main low pressure system that was Wilma moves up the coast, somewhat out to sea. The upper low will crank out a fair amount of precipitation tonight into Tuesday, but the 2PM run of the GFS has those amounts somewhat lower than previously forecast (except in NJ, where heavy rains will occur.)
As for the coming weekend (October 29 and October 30th), the current outlook is unclear, since another upper low is expected to cut off in the Ohio Valley. Too early to predict the coming weekend.
The GFS model did pretty well, as did the NOGAPS, in forecasting the path of Wilma. The timing with both models only came into focus over the weekend. The NOGAPS was especially good and predicting the storm that's developing off the coast tonight. The GFS was a latecomer to this idea.
posted: Oct 24 2005 at 4:48 pm
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Sat, 22 Oct 2005Weather Update
The latest GFS has the storm moving up the coast, giving us very stormy and rainy conditions on Tuesday. The Jersey shore may be hard hit. Stay tuned.
The latest GFS has come into line with the NOGAPS model regarding Hurricane Wilma. The hurricane hits mid (GFS) to southern (NOGAPS)Florida early Monday morning. It then moves up the coastline.
posted: Oct 22 2005 at 10:33 pm
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Philly Weekend Weather Update
Sun 10/23: Cloudy and damp very early. Some partial clearing with a mix of clouds and some sun. High 61.
Low pressure will depart tonight. Currently, it's expected that dry air will filter in on Sunday, giving us sunny skies. Since we will still be under cyclonic flow, it would not surprise me if some cloudiness develops on Sunday due to low level moisture and cyclonic flow.
posted: Oct 22 2005 at 8:29 am
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Fri, 21 Oct 2005Weather Update
I'll update about Wilma over the weekend. The NOGAPS still suggests it might affect our weather on Tuesday.
The NOGAPS has again changed the outlook for Florida, with Wilma reorganizing as at least a category 2 and hitting Florida on Monday afternoon or evening. As for our weather, heavy rains Saturday morning will taper off to shower Saturday night as low pressure moves over us and departs on Sunday. Unsettled conditions on Sunday will allow partial clearing.
posted: Oct 21 2005 at 10:41 pm
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Philly Weekend Weather Outlook - Sat 10/22 and Sun 10/23
Sat 10/22: Cloudy with heavy rains possible. High 57.
Sun 10/23: Cloudy and damp early. Some partial clearing and some sun possible in the afternoon. High low 60s.
Forecasting hurricanes is a tough business. Big changes in the forecast, both for us and for Florida. Latest models have changed considerably, as Wilma now hits the Yucatan penninsula of Mexico and falls apart. The remants then move over Florida on Monday and well east of us on Tuesday. As for us, the stalled front to our south allows low pressure to move over us on Saturday.
posted: Oct 21 2005 at 5:24 am
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Thu, 20 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather Outlook - Sat 10/22 and Sun 10/23
Sat 10/22: Cloudy with showers likely. High in the 58.
Sun 10/23: Continued cloudy with some rain likely into Monday. High 59. The NOGAPS has the remnants of Wilma becoming an extratropical superstorm affecting us on Monday, the GFS keeps it further east.
Hurricane Wilma will slow down a bit, according to the NOGAPS and GFS models, still hitting Florida on Sunday. The GFS has the remnants moving off into the Atlantic, but the NOGAPS creates a superstorm along the coast, giving us major winds and rain on Monday. Big differences between the models here, but we have to be concerned if the NOGAPS is correct.
posted: Oct 20 2005 at 6:22 am
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Wed, 19 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather Outlook - Sat 10/22 and Sun 10/23
Sat 10/22: Cloudy with showers likely. High in the 60s.
Sun 10/23: Continued cloudy with some heavy rain, likely into Monday. High in the mid 60s. The NOGAPS has a strong tropical storm affecting the coast on Monday, the GFS keeps it further east.
As Hurricane Wilma crosses south central Florida over the weekend, moisture of its outflow joins in with an upper trough giving us showers on Saturday and heavier rain on Sunday. Only the Jersey shore will be somewhat drier on Saturday. If the NOGAPS is correct, the hurricane moves up along the coast affecting us on Monday. (The GFS has a broader upper trough and keeps the hurricane offshore.) We'll have to watch this on Monday.
posted: Oct 19 2005 at 5:07 am
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Tue, 18 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather Outlook - Sat 10/22 and Sun 10/23
Sat 10/22: Cloudy with showers likely. High in the 60s.
Sun 10/23: Continued cloudy with some heavy rain possible into Monday. High in the mid 60s.
Interesting weather for the weekend, as the latest GFS model has moisture from Hurricane Wilma entrained in an upper trough approaching our area. Heavy rain possible Sunday into Monday. Concerns about flooding during the same period.
posted: Oct 18 2005 at 6:10 am
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Mon, 17 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather Outlook - Sat 10/22 and Sun 10/23
Sat 10/22: Cloudy with a chance of showers. High in the 60s.
Sun 10/23: Becoming sunny. High near 65.
Early outlook for the weekend shows a low pressure system affecting us on Saturday. Exact timing will likely change by the weekend, so this early forecast has low confidence. Another area to watch is a tropical storm, possibly becoming a hurricane, that's expected to move westward in the Gulf of Mexico.
posted: Oct 17 2005 at 6:28 am
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Fri, 14 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather - Sat 10/15 and Sun 10/16
Sat 10/15: After some very early clouds, the sun will come out mid morning. Mostly sunny, fairly breezy. Mild. High in the 70s.
Sun 10/16: Sunny. High near 68.
The models are together on the front coming through with clearing and sun on Saturday.
posted: Oct 14 2005 at 5:40 am
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Wed, 12 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather - Sat 10/15 and Sun 10/16
Sat 10/15: Becoming a mix of sun and clouds. (Depends upon how quickly the coastal low departs. (The NOGAPS keeps things unsettled, the GFS has sunny skies.) High near 73.
Sun 10/16: Mostly sunny. High near 68.
The front is now expected to come through early Saturday morning. Clearing is expected on Saturday with sun making its appearance. There are differences in the models, though, with the NOGAPS holding onto some clouds and moisture for Saturday.
posted: Oct 12 2005 at 6:08 am
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Tue, 11 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather - Sat 10/15 and Sun 10/16
Sat 10/15: Partly sunny. High near 70.
Sun 10/16: Mostly sunny. High near 70.
The current blocked upper low pattern will finally lose its grip for the coming weekend. A front will pass through on Friday, clearing things out for the weekend.
posted: Oct 11 2005 at 6:42 am
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Sun, 09 Oct 2005Weather Update - Sun 10/9
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The models prevailed and there was no sun today. But it was dry enough for bike rides and outdoor activities. An incredible amount of rain yesterday, and the GFS did a good job at predicting the event. An interest pattern for the coming week, as a stalled front and impulses affect our weather. The coming weekend will be a different ballgame, but it still looks unsettled as a deep trough stuck over us along with another system in the Atlantic may retrograde westward and give us more rain. Way too early to be sure.
posted: Oct 09 2005 at 7:33 pm
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Weather Update - Sun 10/9
Sun 10/9: Light drizzle ending early morning. Mostly cloudy. Based on water vapor and barometric tendencies, I think brightening skies and even some sun breaking through is possible. Be advised that the computer models keep it cloudy today. High in the upper 60s.
Trying to determine today's weather. Upper closed low near Pittsburgh keeps things static. Lower wind flow from the north will interact with upper moist flow from the south. I think today will be essentially dry and I'm trying to determine whether skies will brighten and sun may break through in the afternoon. I still think that's possible, although the computer models show clouds for today.
posted: Oct 09 2005 at 6:12 am
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Sat, 08 Oct 2005Weather Update
Sun 10/9: Cloudy in the early morning; I think partly sunny is a possibility. Dry. High in the 60s.
As I've been saying, Sunday looks better, weatherwise. Based on water vapor imagery and barometric pressure changes, I think Sunday will be better than currently being forecast by the models and the commercial weather companies. I guess we'll see! :)
posted: Oct 08 2005 at 10:56 pm
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Weather Update - Sat 10/8 and Sun 10/9
Sat 10/8: Rain, heavy at times through the day. Humid. High upper 60s.
Sun 10/9: Rain ending in the morning, probably before 9 AM. Remaining cloudy through the afternoon....but it should be dry. High mid to upper 60s. (Rain approaches again on Monday.)
Latest GFS still reduces chance of rain on Sunday to slight. Cloudy skies still expected on Sunday, but should be dry after
posted: Oct 08 2005 at 6:12 am
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Fri, 07 Oct 2005Weather Update - Sat 10/8 and Sun 10/9
Sat 10/8: Rain, heavy at times through the day. Humid. High mid 60s.
Sun 10/9: Rain ending in the morning, perhaps before daybreak. Remaining cloudy through the afternoon....but it should be dry. (Rain approaches again on Monday.)
No change, as the GFS keeps heavy rain through Friday night into Saturday night. It does have the focus of rain shifting to the east on Sunday. Clouds will remain, but the rain will likely let up on Sunday.
posted: Oct 07 2005 at 5:01 pm
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Thu, 06 Oct 2005Weather Update - Sat 10/8 and Sun 10/9
Sat 10/8: Rain continues, due to a coastal low merging with a slowing front. Highs low 60s
Sun 10/9: Uncertainty now about degree of clearing and sunshine. I think the weather will be more optimistic than currently painted by the models. A mix of clouds and sun. High near 64.
The GFS has continued to slow down the system, with lingering heavy rain from Friday through Saturday. Rains may exceed 2 inches by Saturday night. We'll see if this verifies. Clouds linger into Sunday, according to the GFS, but I think this is overdone.
posted: Oct 06 2005 at 9:29 pm
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Philly Weekend Weather - Sat 10/8 and Sun 10/9
Sat 10/8: Rain early, then a chance of light showers continues to linger into much of Saturday. Still a chance of a shower in the afternoon, but only the mid to late afternoon will be dry. Clearing skies will be slow to occur. High 65.
Sun 10/9: Sunny and cool. High only in the low 60s.
The GFS continues to slow down the front and the rain from exiting our area on Saturday.
posted: Oct 06 2005 at 5:34 am
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Tue, 04 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather - Sat 10/8 and Sun 10/9
Sat 10/8: Rain showers may linger into Saturday morning, with clearing skies around noontime. Partly sunny conditions possible by afternoon. Much cooler! High near 62.
Sun 10/9: Sunny and cool. High only in the low 60s.
Latest GFS creates a significant 'inverted trough' and coastal low on Friday, which merges with a cold front moving through on early Saturday morning. Rain on Friday may now linger into some part of Saturday morning. This frontal passage has slowed down since yesterday's models; not definite how much of Saturday morning will be wet. Will watch this.
posted: Oct 04 2005 at 7:21 pm
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Mon, 03 Oct 2005Philly Weekend Weather - Sat 10/8 and Sun 10/9
Sat 10/8: After some morning clouds, partly sunny conditions and cool temps. High near 70.
Sun 10/9: Sunny and seasonably cool. High upper 60s to near 70.
A coastal low departs Friday night with a cold front passing through. High pressure builds in on Saturday, bringing cooler temps and dryer conditions.
posted: Oct 03 2005 at 7:08 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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