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Miscellaneous
Thu, 30 Nov 2006
Winter Returns this Weekend- Light Snow Monday?
A cold front will push through on Friday; low pressure developing on this front will bring rain, possibly heavy, to our area. (Latest GFS has heaviest rains to our west.)
The depth (thickness) of cold air is looking a bit deeper for the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s.
A low pressure system will develop Sunday night along the front, east of our area. The latest NOGAPS has light snow, probably NOT accumulating, during the day Monday. The GFS has been on the fence about the track of this storm. Too early to be sure.
Sat 12/2: Partly sunny and colder. High in the mid to upper 40s.
Sun 12/3: Partly cloudy. High upper 40s to near 50.
posted: Nov 30 2006 at 5:59 pm
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Winter Returns this Weekend- Thurs AM Update
A cold front will push through on Friday; low pressure developing on this front will bring rain, possibly heavy, to our area. (Latest GFS has heaviest rains to our west.)
The depth (thickness) of cold air is looking a bit deeper for the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s.
The coastal storm, expected to develop on Sunday, looks like it will be too far offshore to affect our weather.
Sat 12/2: Partly sunny and colder. High in the mid to upper 40s.
Sun 12/3: Partly cloudy. High upper 40s to near 50.
posted: Nov 30 2006 at 7:14 am
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Wed, 29 Nov 2006Winter Returns this Weekend
A cold front will push through on Friday; low pressure developing on this front will bring rain, possibly heavy, to our area. (Latest GFS has heaviest rains to our west.)
The depth (thickness) of cold air is looking a bit deeper for the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s.
Still on the maps is a coastal storm that is expected to form Sunday night and move up the coast. The exact track is still uncertain, but it appears that we will be brushed with the western extent of the precipitation. Light wet snow or snow flurries is possible late Sunday night.
Sat 12/2: Partly sunny and colder. High in the mid to upper 40s.
Sun 12/3: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of light wet snow/flurries late Sunday night. High in the 40s.
posted: Nov 29 2006 at 5:54 am
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Tue, 28 Nov 2006Week Weather Outlook
The big weather event for this week will be the cold front moving through on Friday, with rain, heavy at times, during the day on Friday.
The cold air associated with this front will not be very deep in the atmosphere, so very cold temperatures aren't expected.
Of more interest is a coastal storm that is predicted to form Sunday night and move up the coast. Thickness of the cold air will be marginal, but the most recent model run suggests some light wet snow possible Sunday night into Monday. I'll keep an eye on this.
Sat 12/2: Partly sunny and colder. High in the 40s.
Sun 12/3: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow late Sunday night. High in the 40s.
posted: Nov 28 2006 at 7:36 am
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Mon, 27 Nov 2006Week Weather Outlook
An outbreak of cold air will spread down across the upper midwest this week. Initially, it appeared that it would affect our area next weekend, but subsequent model runs show this front to take its time moving through on Friday. Friday will be fairly wet with moderate rains. The cold front will bring only shallow depth of cold air and will retreat again into Canada next week.
So, while it had looked like it would be wintery and stormy, the latest model runs have it milder with little chance of snow during the next week or so.
posted: Nov 27 2006 at 7:24 am
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Sat, 25 Nov 2006Weekend Forecast -Updated Sat PM
The NAM continues to forecast fog for late tonight into early Sunday morning. (The GFS does not predict fog.) The GFS has moisture increasing in the upper atmosphere on Sunday. I think we'll see high to middle level clouds, especially in the afternoon. Mild weather continues until a major pattern change on Friday. Winter returns next weekend!
Sun 11/26: Some fog early. Considerable high to middle level clouds mixed with sun in the afternoon. High 58.
posted: Nov 25 2006 at 10:06 pm
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Fri, 24 Nov 2006Weekend Forecast -Updated Fri PM
The latest NAM model has fog early Sunday morning. The GFS has been hinting at warm air moving in causing some mid-level clouds. Continued mild.
Fri 11/24: Sunny and mild. High 59.
Sat 11/25: Sunny and mild. High 60.
Sun 11/26: Some fog early. Middle level clouds mixed with sun. High 59
posted: Nov 24 2006 at 8:32 pm
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Weekend Forecast -Updated Fri AM
Temperatures for the coming weekend and week will be warm, with highs approaching 60. Warm air aloft returns on Sunday. Considerable mid-level clouds will mix with breaks of sun on Sunday.
Fri 11/24: Sunny and mild. High 59.
Sat 11/25: Sunny and mild. High 60.
Sun 11/26: Mostly sunny early, then mid-level clouds increase for the balance of the day. Mild. High 60.
posted: Nov 24 2006 at 9:22 am
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Thu, 23 Nov 2006Weekend Forecast -Updated Thurs PM
Low pressure moves out later this evening. High pressure builds in for sunny skies over the weekend and very mild temperatures!
Temperatures for the coming weekend and week will be very warm, with highs approaching 60 (and above 60!).
Looking at the long range forecast, enjoy this last week of November, because a major winter trough pattern develops by next weekend (Dec 2,3) and the first snowstorm in the northeast looks like a possibility the first week in December. This first snow may miss us, but a second storm could give us snow as early as the second week of December.
Fri 11/24: Sunny and mild. High 59.
Sat 11/25: Sunny and mild. High 59.
Sun 11/26: Mostly sunny. Some mid-level clouds early afternoon. Mild. High 60.
posted: Nov 23 2006 at 9:02 pm
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Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast Update- Thurs
Rain, scattered at times, continues through today, Thursday. High pressure builds in for the weekend. Warm air aloft gives us some clouds mid day Sunday.
Thurs 11/23: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the late afternoon. Windy. High 43.
Fri 11/24: Sunny and mild. High 56.
Sat 11/25: Sunny and mild. High 57.
Sun 11/26: Mostly sunny. Some mid-level clouds early afternoon. Mild. High 59.
posted: Nov 23 2006 at 11:19 am
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Wed, 22 Nov 2006Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast Update
The rain started earlier than predicted by the models. The latest models have the rain lasting through Thursday afternoon, ending during the late afternoon. The GFS has much less rain than the NAM. Both models continue rain through mid to late Thursday afternoon.
Thurs 11/23: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the afternoon. Windy. High 43.
Fri 11/24: Mostly sunny and mild. High 56.
Sat 11/25: Mostly sunny and mild. High 57.
Sun 11/26: Mostly sunny and mild. High 62.
posted: Nov 22 2006 at 8:39 pm
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Another Forecast Change & A Beautiful Weekend
The models have the rain starting in Philadelphia between 3-4 PM today. (The radar suggests earlier.)
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The latest GFS and NAM models eject this closed low up the coast much quicker and away from us by Friday. An upper ridge takes its place.
As a result of these big model changes, rain will move in faster-- on Wednesday afternoon and will be ending during the day on Thursday. Friday will have some sunny skies and warm weather moves in for the weekend.
Thurs 11/23: Rain tapering off during the afternoon. Remaining cloudy. Windy. High 45.
Fri 11/24: Mostly sunny and mild. High 56.
Sat 11/25: Mostly sunny and mild. High 60.
Sun 11/26: Mostly sunny and mild. High 62.
posted: Nov 22 2006 at 7:40 am
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Tue, 21 Nov 2006Forecast Change & A Beautiful Weekend -- Update
Latest NAM model has rain here as early as late afternoon Wednesday.
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As mentioned yesterday, predicting weather from a surface low tied to an upper closed low has a lot of uncertainty with it. The latest models have changed their tune from yesterday.
The latest GFS and NAM models eject this closed low up the coast much quicker and away from us by Friday. An upper ridge takes its place.
As a result of these big model changes, rain will move in faster-- on Wednesday evening and will be ending during the day on Thursday. Friday will have some sunny skies and warm weather moves in for the weekend. Let's see if this scenario sticks!
Sat 11/25: Mostly sunny and mild. High 60.
Sun 11/26: Mostly sunny and mild. High 62.
posted: Nov 21 2006 at 10:24 pm
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Forecast Change & A Beautiful Weekend
As mentioned yesterday, predicting weather from a surface low tied to an upper closed low has a lot of uncertainty with it. The latest models have changed their tune from yesterday.
The latest GFS and NAM models eject this closed low up the coast much quicker and away from us by Friday. An upper ridge takes its place.
As a result of these big model changes, rain will move in faster-- on Wednesday evening and will be ending during the day on Thursday. Friday will have some sunny skies and warm weather moves in for the weekend. Let's see if this scenario sticks!
Sat 11/25: Mostly sunny and mild. High 60.
Sun 11/26: Mostly sunny and mild. High 62.
posted: Nov 21 2006 at 6:31 pm
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Mon, 20 Nov 2006Week Weather Outlook- Thanksgiving Update
Perhaps we'll see some sun tomorrow? (Tues)
The scenario for the coastal storm for later in the week is still developing. The deep trough will cut off into a upper cut off low near SC/Fl. Surface low pressure will gradually slide up the coast through Friday.
Depending upon the model, rain will start either early Thursday or Thursday evening. Winds and clouds will preceed this surface low. Since the coastal storm is being influenced by an upper closed low, much uncertainty remains with this system's development and its movement/speed. Rain through Thursday night and Friday morning is a good bet. Rain could be heavy.
posted: Nov 20 2006 at 7:01 pm
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Sun, 19 Nov 2006Week Weather Outlook- A Stormy Thanksgiving possible
The clouds developed today, as expected, with moisture and a cyclonic flow upper flow. Generally improving conditions will occur from Monday through Tuesday, as drier air moves in.
The GFS model (and NOGAPS) have been predicting for the past several days the formation of a coastal low pressure system for the Thanksgiving period. The latest model runs continue the trend for stormy weather for us from Wednesday through Thursday, as a the coastal low now appears to have a track close to the coastline. Windy, chilly conditions with rain at times is now expected.
The trend is for a more developed low with colder air present. While not currently in the forecast, a chance of wet snow in the northwestern suburbs is becoming a possibility.
As mentioned in a previous posting, the current pattern suggests a stormy winter for us.
posted: Nov 19 2006 at 5:25 pm
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Weekend Forecast- Sun AM
A significant upper trough will develop for the next four days, bringing cold air and unsettled conditions. Today will be cool/cold and dry but upper air moisture and areas of 'vorticity' revolving around the upper low will cause clouds to form by mid day.
For the coming week, the GFS extended model shows the development of a coastal low pressure system that will slowly move up the coastline from Wednesday through Friday. Each consecutive model run has this low closer to the coastline. It does appear possible that some of the rain (and wind) will affect us by Wednesday or Thursday.
Sun 10/19: After some sunny breaks, becoming mostly cloudy. High 50.
posted: Nov 19 2006 at 8:29 am
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Sat, 18 Nov 2006Weekend Forecast- Sat PM
A significant upper trough will develop for the next four days, bringing cold air and unsettled conditions. Tomorrow, Sunday, will be cool/cold and dry but upper air moisture and areas of 'vorticity' revolving around the upper low will cause clouds to form.
For the coming week, the GFS extended model is still showing the development of a coastal low pressure system that will slowly move up the coastline from Wednesday through Friday. The models are not clear about how far east this storm will be from us...the latest GFS suggest it might brush us with some light rain on Thursday. Too early to tell.
Sun 10/19: Mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks during the morning and late afternoon. High 48-50.
posted: Nov 18 2006 at 5:44 pm
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Fri, 17 Nov 2006Weekend Forecast- Fri PM
Cooler/colder temperatures (actually seasonable) are back with us for the coming weekend and much of the coming week.
Upper air disturbances will move through the area on the upper northwesterly flow both Saturday and Sunday with clouds during the day as well as sunshine at times.
Sat 11/18: Considerable cloudiness, (mostly middle level clouds) some sunny breaks possible. High 53
Sun 10/19: Partly cloudy, partly sunny. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High 53
Next week, around Thanksgiving, we'll see the first development of a winter-like coastal storm that will move up the coast. Cold air will be in short supply, so rain is the forecast from this storm. Should the current pattern continue, considerable snow and ice is expected for Philadelphia this winter.
posted: Nov 17 2006 at 9:17 pm
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Weekend Forecast- Fri AM
Cooler/colder temperatures (actually seasonable) are back with us for the coming weekend and much of the coming week.
Upper air disturbances will move through the area on the upper northwesterly flow both Saturday and Sunday with clouds during the day as well as sunshine at times.
Sat 11/18: Considerable cloudiness, some sunny breaks possible. High 53
Sun 10/19: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy. High 53
Next week, around Thanksgiving, we'll see the first development of a winter-like coastal storm that will move up the coast. Cold air will be in short supply, so rain is the forecast from this storm. Should the current pattern continue, considerable snow and ice is expected for Philadelphia this winter.
posted: Nov 17 2006 at 8:24 am
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Thu, 16 Nov 2006Weekend Forecast- Thurs PM
The rains have moved through and cold air will filter in to our area. More seasonable temperatures for the weekend.
Upper air disturbances will move through the area on the upper northwesterly flow both Saturday and Sunday with clouds during the day as well as sunshine at times.
Sat 11/18: A mix of clouds and some sun. High 50.
Sun 10/19: A mix of clouds and some sun. High 52.
posted: Nov 16 2006 at 7:49 pm
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Weather Update- Thurs AM
The latest models do not look that impressive with today's weather. Rain about 1 inch and some windy conditions with thunderstorms. No big deal.
Sat 11/18: Partly to mostly sunny and seasonably cool. High 50.
Sun 10/19: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52.
posted: Nov 16 2006 at 7:36 am
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Wed, 15 Nov 2006Weather Update for Thurs- Wed PM
General agreement with the NAM-WRF and GFS models for between 1 and 2 inches of rain on Thursday, but some differences between the timing of the rain. (Latest models have come down a bit on the precipitation totals...closer to 1.25 inches total. The latest models also have come down a bit on the winds.)
The GFS is slightly faster with the rain, starting in the mid-afternoon and ending during the early evening, with the heaviest during the mid to late afternoon. The NAM is somewhat later with the heavy rain, with much of it occuring in the early evening. The NAM winds are still much higher than the GFS.
Colder weather for the weekend, with temperatures near 50. Nice, dry and tranquil. Regarding amounts of sunshine, upper air disturbances may move down with the northwesterly flow giving us some clouds at times.
Sat 11/18: Partly to mostly sunny and seasonably cool. High 50.
Sun 10/19: A mix of sun and clouds. High 52.
We have to keep an eye on coastal development late Sunday through Monday, as it is possible that a coastal storm may develop and even bring us some wet snow Monday night. Too early to tell for sure.
posted: Nov 15 2006 at 8:24 pm
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Tue, 14 Nov 2006Severe Weather for Thursday Night
The latest GFS and NAM models are predicting heavy, possibly flooding, rains for Thursday night. High winds are expected to accompany these rains with winds 30 mph with much higher gusts.
The rain will likely wait until late afternoon on Thursday. The latest NAM has over 1.5 inches falling in a 6 hour period between 7 PM and 1 AM Thursday night. That's a lot!
Colder weather for the weekend. I'll update tomorrow!
posted: Nov 14 2006 at 10:19 pm
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Sun, 12 Nov 2006Week Weather Outlook- Sun PM
The GFS and WRF did well in predicting that the heavy rain would just miss Philadelphia. (Heavy rain continues to fall in NJ and DE). The closed low will be slow to exit, with residual showers/drizzle through much of Monday.
For the coming week, a lot of clouds around, except Wednesday. Thursday is looking like very wet with a heavy rainstorm affecting us. The weekend looks colder and dry.
posted: Nov 12 2006 at 6:21 pm
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Weekend Forecast- Sun AM
The cold front is right on our door step this morning, but is being slowed by a low pressure system developing along the front. An upper low pressure will close off right just to our south, enhancing the development of the surface low.
The exact placement of the cut-off upper low and the surface development continues to be slightly uncertain. More importantly, the models have the path of the maximum moisture plume (and heaviest rain) being west of Philadelphia and then re-configuring around the low. Even though the NWS is calling for a flood watch in Philly, the actual model rain totals are very low (WRF model) and less than an inch (GFS model) in Philadelphia proper. My guess is that the NWS is playing it safe.
While it WILL rain in Philly, especially after noon, rain totals predicted by the models in Philadelphia are much less than areas immediately to the west of Philadelphia. Of course, an slight change in moisture plume can change things; hence the caution of the NWS.
Sun 11/12: Cloudy with rain starting about noon in Philadelphia (earlier to our west). Becoming breezy. High 56.
posted: Nov 12 2006 at 8:46 am
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Sat, 11 Nov 2006Weekend Forecast- Sat AM
Today's clouds will break up shortly and we'll have a very nice Saturday, although an increase in moisture from an approaching front will result in more cloudiness later in the afternoon.
The more pessimistic forecast for Sunday continues, although the details keep changing.
As the front moves through tonight, the upper low pressure will close off right just to our south, resulting in a closed low that will allow a coastal storm to develop just off of the DE/MD coastline. Exact placement of the cut-off upper low and the surface development continues to be slighly uncertain. The latest GFS has it occuring to our south, with rain becoming heavier in the afternoon. (It had been morning). Precipitation amounts of 2+ inches are back in the latest model. The latest model continues light drizzle into Monday.
Sat 11/11: Mid-level clouds in the early morning, becoming partly sunny. Increasing clouds again during the afternoon. Mild and breezy. High 68.
Sun 11/12: Cloudy with rain, especially heavy in the late afternoon and evening. (Timing and amounts still uncertain.) Windy and cooler. High 54.
posted: Nov 11 2006 at 11:55 am
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Weekend Forecast- Fri PM Update
A cold front will approach on Saturday, but most of the clouds (and the showers) will wait until Sunday. Saturday will be a pretty nice day for November.
The more pessimistic forecast for Sunday continues... As the front moves through on Saturday evening, the upper low pressure will close off right above us resulting in a closed low that will allow a coastal storm to develop just off of the DE-NJ coastline. The latest GFS and NAM has the heaviest rain Sunday morning with light showers in the afternoon. Precipitation amounts are lower than previous model runs, less than 3/4 inch.
Sat 11/11: Mid-level clouds in the early morning, becoming partly sunny. Increasing clouds again during the afternoon. Mild and breezy. High 68.
Sun 11/12: Rain in the morning tapering to light showers in the afternoon. Some brightening skies possible late afternoon. Breezy and cooler High 54.
posted: Nov 11 2006 at 11:53 am
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Fri, 10 Nov 2006Weekend Forecast- Big Change for Sunday!
A cold front will approach on Saturday, but most of the clouds (and the showers) will wait until the evening on Saturday. Saturday will be a pretty nice day for November.
A big change for Sunday... As the front moves through on Saturday evening, the upper low pressure will close off right above us resulting in a closed low that will allow a coastal storm to develop just off of the DE-NJ coastline. (The GFS has been hinting at this scenario for two days with the latest run showing a significant rainstorm for Sunday.)
Sat 11/11: Cloudy in the early morning, becoming partly sunny. Increasing clouds again during the afternoon. Mild and breezy. Rain showers after 7 PM at night. Windy at night. High 68.
Sun 11/12: Cloudy with rain developing during the morning. Rain, heavy at times (2 inches of rain possible.) Windy! High 58.
I'll update later today!
posted: Nov 10 2006 at 7:46 am
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Thu, 09 Nov 2006Weekend Outlook- Thurs PM
A mild weekend ahead, as a cold front moves through Saturday night. The timing of the showers associated with this front has shifted around each model run. The timing and scenario continues to change with some showers lingering into early Sunday morning. The GFS shows some sprinkles Sunday afternoon as an upper low closes off along the coast and low pressure develops.
Sat 11/11: Cloudy in the early morning, some breaks of sun mid-day, becoming cloudy again during the afternoon. Mild and breezy. Rain showers after 7 PM at night. Windy at night. High 68.
Sun 11/12: Lingering showers early...brightening skies, but clouds reform in the afternoon with some sprinkles possible as an upper low closes off over us. High 53.
posted: Nov 09 2006 at 6:15 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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