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Tue, 02 Feb 2010
Weather Update- Tues
The latest models have 1-3 inches for Philadelphia beginning well before daybreak on Wed and ending in the morning.
posted: Feb 02 2010 at 1:34 pm
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Sat, 30 Jan 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Sat AM
The steep dome of cold high pressure over the NE will suppress the center of a low pressure system to our south today. The depth and steepness of this dome of high pressure is the best example of expression "it's too cold to snow".
However, the last few runs of the GFS and NAM models have some light precipitation punching through this dome and reaching Philadelphia late afternoon on Saturday. The QPF values vary from 0.04 inches water (NAM) to about 0.13 inches water (GFS). Snow should start 3-4 PM and be over during the early evening.
A light coating of snow is possible (coating to 1 inch) from Philadelphia on south, but northwest and northern suburbs will likely receive a dusting or no accumulation. It wouldn't take much for this forecast to go wrong, but right now the models are consistent with the forecast above.
Sat 1/30: Cloudy and cold. A light coating of snow possible late afternoon Philadelphia and south. High 22.
Sun 1/31: Mostly sunny and cold. High 26.
Solar Climate Discussion Updated 1/30: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a prolonged lull in solar activity. The sun is beginning to come out of a solar minimum, and there has finally been the long expected increase in solar activity signaling the real beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance continues to be about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, in April 2000.
Looking at the long range GFS, things aren't looking as cold as I had expected for early February. Not sure if the postulated solar effect is minimal or whether the El Nino effect is trumping any solar effect. I guess we'll see as the winter continues.
posted: Jan 30 2010 at 8:13 am
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Fri, 29 Jan 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update-Fri PM [2]
So things are changing.
The latest GFS and model trends suggest an inch or so of snow late afternoon on Saturday for the gridpoint of PHL airport.
posted: Jan 29 2010 at 11:51 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update-Fri PM
The model trend has been towards some light snow possible.
The latest NAM and model trends suggest a coating of snow possible late afternoon or early evening. This for areas near gridpoints around PHL and PNE airports.
posted: Jan 29 2010 at 9:49 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
A dome of cold, high pressure will suppress the southern stream jet to our south, along with any low pressure systems developing along this boundary.
Low pressure moving from west to east will track just to the south of us on Sat. The high-pressure dome will prevent the low reaching from us. Although, the latest GFS model has some light precipitation reaching Philadelphia late afternoon on Saturday. A light coating of snow is possible from Philadelphia on south, but northwest and west suburbs will likely not receive anything. This is the best example of the expression "it's too cold to snow".
Sat 1/30: Cloudy and cold. A light coating of snow possible late afternoon areas to the south. Breezy. High 28
Sun 1/31: Mostly sunny and cold. High 29.
Solar Climate Discussion Updated 1/27: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity over the past two months indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000.
That said, there is an uptick in solar wind values and solar flux. Looking at the long range GFS, things aren't looking as cold as I had expected for early February. Not sure if the postulated solar effect is minimal or whether the El Nino effect is trumping any solar effect. I guess we'll see as the winter continues.
posted: Jan 29 2010 at 4:41 pm
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Thu, 28 Jan 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Wed PM
A dome of cold, high pressure will suppress the southern stream jet to our south, along with any low pressure systems developing along this boundary.
Sat 1/30: Partly sunny/cloudy and cold. Breezy. High 30
Sun 1/31: Sunny and cold. High 31.
Solar Climate Discussion Updated 1/27: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity over the past two months indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000.
That said, there is an uptick in solar wind values and solar flux. Looking at the long range GFS, things aren't looking as cold as I had expected for early February. Not sure if the postulated solar effect is minimal or whether the El Nino effect is trumping any solar effect. I guess we'll see as the winter continues.
posted: Jan 28 2010 at 9:56 pm
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Tue, 26 Jan 2010Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Tues PM
See yesterday's outlook for the big features.
The models are now trending the snow for Friday/Sat to our south, only affecting DE and far southern NJ. Either way, the area of snow doesn't look like it will undergo much development.
With the upper pattern in a transition, expect changes in the forecast over the next few days.
posted: Jan 26 2010 at 8:12 pm
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Mon, 25 Jan 2010Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Monday
The January Thaw that we have experienced for the past 10 days will begin to fade as a colder upper air pattern re-establishes itself over most of the eastern US. Daily average temperatures will begin to move downward over the next several days with below normal cold temps over the weekend, although the real cold weather may wait until next week.
At the same time that the cold upper air pattern reestablishes itself, an active southerly jet stream from an El Nino Pacific trend will keep moist air trying to move into the area.
The models are beginning to hint at an over-running snow pattern for Friday into Saturday, as low pressure forms along the southern jet flow. Currently, a minor snow is possible Friday into Saturday.
With the upper pattern in a transition, expect big changes in the forecast over the next few days.
posted: Jan 25 2010 at 7:32 pm
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Sun, 24 Jan 2010Philly Weather Forecast Forecast- Sun AM
Trying to nail down the onset of the rain. Radar has some light showers moving rapidly through areas of south jersey right now. The main onset of the rain still waits until about 4-5 PM, but there may be some very light, scattered, very fast moving showers passing through from time to time before then.
Sun 1/24: Cloudy. Very light passing highly scattered showers during the day. Rain moves in about 4-5 PM. Mild. High 51.
With the slowing of this system, the January Thaw may be with us through Wednesday. Temps are expected to go below normal for next weekend.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity over the past two months indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 24 2010 at 8:56 am
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Sat, 23 Jan 2010Philly Weather Forecast Change- Sat Eve [2]
Yet another change in the forecast for Sunday. The latest NAM data just became available and it shows the rain holding off until Sunday evening again. Additionally, it holds off the heavier rain until the early hours of Monday and Monday morning.
Unfortunately, my source of GFS Grib2 live data hasn't been available over the past week, so will have to wait for the end of the model run to get the update. This won't be available until after midnight.
The bottom line is that the weather during the day Sunday may be drier than previously predicted.
Sun 1/24: Partial sun very early, then thickening clouds. Rain develops very late in the afternoon. Mild. High 51.
With the slowing of this system, the January Thaw may be with us through Wednesday. Temps are expected to go below normal for next weekend.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity over the past two months indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 23 2010 at 10:28 pm
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Weather Update- Sat Eve
The latest in NAM model has rain starting about 1 PM on Sunday. Rain is expected to become very heavy at night.
posted: Jan 23 2010 at 8:28 pm
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Fri, 22 Jan 2010Weather Update- Fri Eve
The latest NAM holds off the rain until Sunday evening. Much of the weekend will be dry.
posted: Jan 22 2010 at 10:08 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
Low pressure and precipitation stayed to our south, as expected.
For this weekend, high pressure builds in for Saturday. A deeping low in the midwest will bring rain to our area on Sunday afternoon.
Our January Thaw ends this week as much colder weather returns on Tuesday.
Sat 1/25 Sunny and mild. High 46.
Sun 1/26 Cloudy in the morning, light rain in the afternoon. Heavier rain late. High 49.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity over the past two months indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 22 2010 at 10:06 am
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Thu, 21 Jan 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs PM
Low pressure tonight will most likely miss us and stay to our south. Areas to the south of PHL will have some light rain. Philadelphia and north will likely stay dry.
For the weekend, high pressure builds in for Saturday. A deeping low in the midwest will bring rain to our area on Sunday afternoon.
Sat 1/25 Sunny and mild. High 46.
Sun 1/26 Cloudy in the morning, rain by afternoon. High 44.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity over the past two months indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 21 2010 at 7:45 pm
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Winter Weather Update- Thurs AM
For tomorrow, Friday: Based on the NAM model, snow/sleet and rain early Friday should stay south of Philadelphia. Areas south and southeast of PHL may have some rain with mixed sleet. It wouldn't take much for this to change, but the NAM has been very good at predicting the northern extent of precip.
posted: Jan 21 2010 at 7:45 am
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Wed, 20 Jan 2010Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Wed PM
Low pressure will move past our area on Friday, possibly missing us, possibly giving us some rain. Deep low pressure develops in the midwest and moves towards us on Sunday.
Sat 1/25 Sunny and mild. High 46.
Sun 1/26 Cloudy in the morning, rain by afternoon. High 44.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity over the past two months indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 20 2010 at 8:13 pm
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Tue, 19 Jan 2010Week Weather Outlook
This week has mild temperatures and rain for Friday. Saturday will be seasonally cold and there will be increasing clouds on Sunday with a chance of rain during the late afternoon. Things get a bit cooler starting next week. It appears that very cold weather will be returning just before the end of January.
posted: Jan 19 2010 at 9:39 pm
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Sat, 16 Jan 2010Weather Update
The GFS continues to have over 1 inch of rain for tomorrow with the greatest amount falling during the afternoon. The NAM model has less rain. A rainy day for Sunday either way.
posted: Jan 16 2010 at 10:52 pm
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Philadelphia Week Weather Forecast- Sat AM
Low pressure will move up the Appalachians on Sunday. Moderately heavy rain expected. The NAM has joined the GFS now in having rain starting in the morning hours.
Sat 1/18 Partly sunny/cloudy and milder. High 49
Sun 1/19 Cloudy with rain, moderately heavy starting mid morning. Colder easterly wind. High 39.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity in December indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 16 2010 at 8:51 am
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Fri, 15 Jan 2010Weather Update
Tonight's models differ on the onset of rain for Sunday. The NAM model has rain starting in the afternoon while the GFS has rain starting in the morning.
posted: Jan 15 2010 at 11:08 pm
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Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Fri PM
As the amplified trough retreats somewhat, allowing somewhat a somewhat milder flow to raise temps a bit here, a deep low pressure system is progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move up along the Appalachians. Heavy rain is possible for Sunday. The GFS has the rain starting in the morning, the NAM waits until early afternoon. The NAM has more clouds for Saturday.
Sat 1/18 Partly sunny/cloudy and milder. Some high cloudiness possible late afternoon. High 45
Sun 1/19 Cloudy with rain, possibly heavy, by late morning. High 39.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity in December indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 15 2010 at 8:29 pm
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Wed, 13 Jan 2010Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Wed PM
As the amplified trough retreats somewhat, allowing somewhat a somewhat milder flow to raise temps a bit here, a deep low pressure system is progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move up the coast. There has been a lack of consistency with the low's track and development, but the trend has been to move further and further north, affecting us on Sunday. The GFS has rain for us on Sunday, but the DGEX keeps the rain to our south. The GFS has caught up with the European ECMWF model which has been suggesting this rain for us for several days.
Sat 1/18 Tentative: Mostly sunny and milder. Some high cloudiness possible late afternoon. High 45
Sun 1/19 Tentative: Cloudy with rain, possibly heavy, by late morning. There's the chance that it may start as some freezing rain early on Sunday. High 42.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity in December indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 13 2010 at 8:02 pm
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Tue, 12 Jan 2010Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Tues PM
Still keeping an eye on the expected development of a strong low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico expected to move towards us over the weekend. There has been alot of model inconsistency, with most models moving it off the coast far to our south.
The latest trend shows this low to move up close or just south of our area. Temps will be above freezing, so this will likely be a rain event, not snow.
Sat 1/18 Tentative: Mostly sunny and milder. High 49
Sun 1/19 Tentative: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the afternoon. High 46.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity in December indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures on average for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 12 2010 at 8:33 pm
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Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Tues AM
Still keeping an eye on the expected development of a strong low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico expected to move towards us over the weekend. There has been alot of model inconsistency, with most models moving it off the coast far to our south. However, the latest trend keeps it as close as the Carolinas. Further northward movement and we could have a significant storm here.
Sat 1/18 Uncertain
Sun 1/19 Uncertain
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity in December indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 12 2010 at 7:37 am
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Mon, 11 Jan 2010Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook- Mon
It now looks like the warm-up mentioned for Thursday will be delayed a bit, as the upper trough holds on for the weekend. In doing so, it suppresses the Gulf of Mexico low over the weekend to our south, probably not affecting us at all. (That said, this is a pattern change and transitional period, so we will need to keep an eye on the upcoming changes.) We will have milder temps, however, as highs slighly above normal
A true January Thaw pattern is developing for us for the timeframe about Jan 20-27th according to the GFS model.
Just as it's been extremely cold in Florida, it looks like it might get warmer in the East and very cold in California sometime next week. So while we'll be warming up for our 'thaw', we'll be hearing news stories of record cold weather in California.
The January Thaw will end before the end of January. It promises to get very cold here again and stormy.
Sat 1/10 Tentative. Mostly sunny, high clouds. High 45
Sun 1/10 Tentative. Mostly sunny. High 44.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity in December indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 11 2010 at 9:33 pm
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Sun, 10 Jan 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather-Sun AM
An unexpected change in the upper air pattern begins this week, as a significant warmup will occur beginning Thursday. The upper trough will be replaced with a zonal or upper ridge for what looks like a 10 day period. Warmer temperatures may be with us for this time period, comprising an early "January Thaw". The anticipated storm for next week, mentioned in my last post, will not have the upper air support and will NOT explode off the coast as previously thought; it may shear off into the Atlantic next weekend, not affecting us.
So, after a long stretch of deep cold, look forward to a January Thaw coming up.
Sun 1/10 Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High 31.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity in December indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 10 2010 at 9:25 am
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Fri, 08 Jan 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather- Fri PM
The deep northwesterly flow and upper trough will be with us through the weekend. Continued below normal temperatures are expected.
For NEXT weekend, the models are predicting the development of a major storm in the Gulf of Mexico with the potential for a huge coastal storm here. Right now, it looks like a rain/snow scenario, but things will likely change. Stay tuned.
Sat 1/9: Partly sunny, windy and cold. High 30.
Sun 1/10 Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High 31.
Solar Climate Discussion: This past summer (see post), I suggested that this upcoming winter would be unusually cold due to a lull in solar activity. The sun remains at a prolonged minimum sunspot activity, although there has finally been a long expected uptick in activity in December indicating the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Total Solar Irradiance is about 1 watt/m2 lower than it was during the peak of the last solar cycle in April 2000. Continue to expect below normal temperatures for this winter and early spring.
posted: Jan 08 2010 at 5:11 pm
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Thu, 07 Jan 2010Winter Weather Update- Thurs 9 PM
This evening's NAM data just available. QPF values are now only 0.08 inches water or slightly more than 1 inch snow. Again, this sort of scenario often leads to amounts that are less.
So, I'm forecasting a dusting to 1.5 inches.
posted: Jan 07 2010 at 9:15 pm
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Winter Weather Update- Thurs PM
This afternoon's models consistently crank out about 0.15 inches water, or 2 or so inches of snow for the cold front that will pass through in the early hours of Friday morning. So, while I had thought that this would be a fizzler and could result in little or no accumuation, I have to respect the model's consistency at this point. So I'm raising the snow totals to about 1-2 inches. Still hedging on the low side.
Again this scenario is often surprises, usually in the direction of lower than predicted snow totals. That said, it's difficult to ignore the model's consistency.
The snow, if we get it, will affect Friday's rush hour. I'll try to nail it down better this evening. Look for updates a little after 9 PM, based on the NAM model.
posted: Jan 07 2010 at 8:27 pm
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Winter Weather Update- Thurs AM
A cold front will move through Thurs night. Weak low pressure is expected to develop over our area as the front moves through. About 0.1 inch water is expected to fall as snow which translates into about 1 inch or so of snow. Since this low will dynamically form as the front moves through, confidence in the exact amount and location of the most snow is low. These sort of scenarios often disappoint, with nothing at all accumulating. Occasionally, the enhancement and development of the low is greater than predicted, causing more. The most likely amount is about 1 inch, but it could range from zero to 2.
The snow, if we get it, will affect Friday's rush hour. I'll try to nail it down better this evening. Look for updates after 9 PM, based on the NAM model.
posted: Jan 07 2010 at 7:22 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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