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Miscellaneous
Tue, 31 Mar 2009
Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook - Tues PM
Low pressure will affect us on Wednesday and again on Friday. Tomorrow (Wednesday's) system again shears off with less precipitation than originally thought. Friday's system appears to give us some much-needed rain, but it's been a repeated situation where the heavy precipitation misses our area.
The weekend has clearing and windy conditions and cooler temps. The longer range continues cooler than normal conditions.
Sat 4/4: Tentative : Mostly sunny and windy. High 60
Sun 4/5: Tentative: Sunny and less windy. High 65
Space Weather:
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html Also check out Solar Activity at http://www.solen.info/solar/
See microblog updates and commments about the current weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 31 2009 at 8:43 pm
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Mon, 30 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook - Mon AM
High pressure along with a departing low will bring windy weather and cooler temps today and Tuesday. Low pressure and a frontal boundary brings showers late Wednesday.
A slow clearing pattern due to an easterly flow may keep things cloudy, cool and damp with showers through Friday night.
The weekend has improving conditions.
Sat 4/4: Tentative : Mostly sunny and windy. High 65
Sun 4/5: Tentative: Sunny and less windy. High 65
Space Weather: The sun continues spotless. Solar flux has risen to about 71.
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html Also check out Solar Activity at http://www.solen.info/solar/
See microblog updates and commments about the current weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 30 2009 at 7:25 am
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Sun, 29 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather - Sun PM
A warm front is just clearing northern Delaware and continues to move north. Some bright skies and warm temps will be with us this afternoon. (Not predicted by the models or earlier forecasts.) Temps may warm into the upper 60s. There's a chance of a thundershower, but not a certainty, as a cold front approaches from the west.
Space Weather: The sun continues spotless.
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html Also check out Solar Activity at http://www.solen.info/solar/
See microblog updates about the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 29 2009 at 12:35 pm
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Sat, 28 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather - Sat AM
Last night's NAM and GFS joined together for rain last night, but differed for Saturday. The NAM which had been predicting rain had much of Saturday dry, while the GFS brought in light precip and drizzle for the morning.(By the way, with daylight savings time, the GFS data is now available at about 11:40 PM and this is often too late to make it into my forecasts, or for that matter, the 11 PM news.)
Much of the day will be dry, but very damp, as an easterly flow keeps low level moisture in. Rain redevelops Saturday evening and night and may continue through much of the day Sunday.
Sat 3/28: Light shower before 8 AM, then cloudy, damp. Showers wait for evening. High near 56.
Sun 3/29: Cloudy with rain in the morning, tapering to light showers and drizzle. Becoming windy and partial clearing possible late afternoon. Mild. High 65.
Space Weather: The sun continues spotless.
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html Also check out Solar Activity at http://www.solen.info/solar/
See microblog updates about the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 28 2009 at 7:16 am
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Fri, 27 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather - Fri PM
As usual, the GFS and NAM models differ, although the NAM has dropped heavy rain for Saturday. This afternoon's NAM and GFS are most similar. Light showers early morning, then most of Saturday dry. Towards Saturday evening, light rain starting and continuing on and off through much of Sunday.
Sat 3/28: Light shower before 8 AM, then cloudy and mild. Showers wait for evening. High near 56.
Sun 3/29: Cloudy with rain in the morning, tapering to light showers and drizzle. Becoming windy and clearing possible late. Mild. High 65.
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 27 2009 at 5:12 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather - Fri AM
See previous discussion. Changing forecast details
Latest GFS and NAM have cut back the amount of rain significantly. Saturday will be dry until evening. Sunday has light rain, but things are changing.
Sat 3/28: Cloudy and mild. Showers wait for evening. High near 60.
Sun 3/29: Cloudy with rain ending during the afternoon. Some sunny breaks possible late in the afternoon. Becoming windy. Mild. High 65.
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 27 2009 at 6:36 am
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Thu, 26 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook - Thurs PM
Deep low pressure near the Great Lakes will attempt to spawn a secondary low this weekend in New England. These double low centers are causing differences in the model predictions for this weekend. The NAM and GFS differ by 12 hours with precipitation. The GFS continues the idea that Saturday will start dry and rain will wait for late in the afternoon or early evening. The NAM (which I've recently decided to try to ignore) has rain starting in the morning on Saturday and continuing through the day. The NAM has much cooler temps on Saturday.
For Sunday, the GFS has the rain starting later (on Saturday) and therefore continuing later on Sunday. Much of Sunday morning will be wet (unless we get into a dry slot). I will go with the GFS this week.
Sat 3/28: Cloudy and mild with rain developing late in the afternoon. High near 58.
Sun 3/29: Cloudy with rain ending during the afternoon. Some sunny breaks possible late in the afternoon. Becoming windy. Mild. High 65.
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 26 2009 at 9:22 pm
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Tue, 24 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook -Tues PM
A series of low pressure systems will begin to affect our area, starting on Thursday, and likely continuing through the weekend. It's been very dry here lately, so to some extent, it's good to see the chance of some precipitation. Only wish it weren't going to rain over the weekend.
Saturday may start dry, but rain will move in during the early afternoon, according to the GFS model. Rain returns on Sunday with another impulse. There's still plenty of time for details to change, but there's been some consistency in this scenario over the past few days.
Sat 3/28: tentative: Cloudy with rain. High 54.
Sun 3/29: tentative: Cloudy with showers. High near 60.
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 24 2009 at 7:07 pm
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Mon, 23 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook -Mon PM
Milder temps return later Wednesday, but moisture and clouds return as well. There's a chance of showers Thursday through Sunday, but details aren't reliable at this time. That said, it appeared the wettest days would be Saturday and Sunday.
Sat 3/28: tentative: Cloudy with showers. High 53.
Sun 3/29:tentative: Cloudy with rain. . High 58
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 23 2009 at 9:31 pm
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Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook -Mon AM
The backdoor cold front slipped through yesterday and colder than normal temperatures will be with us into Wednesday. Milder temps return later Wednesday, but moisture and clouds return as well. There's a chance of showers Thursday through Sunday, but details aren't reliable at this time. That said, it appeared the wettest days would be Saturday and Sunday.
Sat 3/28: tentative: Cloudy with rain. High 53.
Sun 3/29:tentative: Cloudy with showers. High 58
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 23 2009 at 7:24 am
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Sun, 22 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather -Sun PM
Much sunnier than I thought today. Last night's NAM MOS (Model Output Statistics) through me off. I've got to learn to ignore the NAM model and the new NAM MOS. It's more often wrong than correct. A nice day today, but still a bit chilly.
posted: Mar 22 2009 at 6:46 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather -Sat PM
It looks like considerable cloudiness for Sunday.
posted: Mar 22 2009 at 12:09 am
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Sat, 21 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Sat AM
High pressure in control brings sunny skies today and mostly sunny on Sunday. A backdoor cold front brings a few clouds on Sunday.
Our cooler than usual weather continues into spring, as the sunspot minimum continues and solar flux remains at a very low level. Expect the spring to be cooler on average. Check out the solar flux at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
Sat 3/21: Sunny and near normal temps. High 49.
Sun 3/22: Sunny, a few clouds, and slightly milder. High 56.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 21 2009 at 8:18 am
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Fri, 20 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
High pressure will build in today after an [unexpected] upper air disturbance moves out. Clear skies for the weekend, although there may be a few clouds on Sunday as some moisture returns aloft as the high exits.
Sat 3/21: Sunny and near normal temps. High 53.
Sun 3/22: Sunny, a few clouds, and slightly milder. High 57.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 20 2009 at 6:17 am
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Thu, 19 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Forecast - Thur AM
A cold front will pass through today and an upper trough will bring cooler temps and somewhat breezy conditions for Friday. This upper trough is expected to hang on tight for the next several days as high pressure builds in. The models have sunny skies through the weekend, but there is a chance that a return moist flow aloft may bring some clouds. Will have to see. I'm going with the GFS MOS forecast of clear skies.
Sat 3/21: Sunny and near normal temps. High 53.
Sun 3/22: Sunny and slightly milder. High 55.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 19 2009 at 10:57 am
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Sun, 15 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sun AM
Clearing skies looks unlikely, as the models keep damp conditions throughout the day. There's considerable rain just to our south and we remain on the northern edge of the moisture. (We could really use some heavy rain here, but we're just stuck in the drabness.)
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Sun 3/15: Damp and cloudy for with some light drizzle possible in the morning, then cloudy perhaps with some bright spots. High 49.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 15 2009 at 7:47 am
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Sat, 14 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sat AM
Last night's NAM and GFS models have very light precipitation this evening and early Sunday. (0.01- 0.05) The NAM QPF is almost nil. The disturbance is still expected to pass to our south, just brushing our region. A weak pressure pattern for Sunday may stall clearing or slow things down.
Sat 3/14: Some sun in the morning, becoming cloudy by early afternoon. Very light showers possible very late afternoon and evening. High near 50.
Sun 3/15: Damp early, then gradual clearing with possibly some sun during the afternoon. Amount of clearing is uncertain. High 57.
(While I can't wait for warmer temps and spring, the GFS has cold, windy weather returning for next weekend.)
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 14 2009 at 8:52 am
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Fri, 13 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Forecast -Fri AM
The latest GFS model continues to show low pressure affecting us late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, as it passes just to our south. The GFS continues to show showers over by Sunday morning, and slow clearing with some sun by afternoon.
Sat 3/14: Some sun in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Showers possible late afternoon and especially evening. High 49.
Sun 3/15: Damp very early, then gradual clearing with some sun during the afternoon. High 57.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 13 2009 at 5:51 am
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Thu, 12 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Forecast -Thurs PM
Change in Forecast. The latest GFS model shows a change for the weekend, as low pressure that was expected to be suppressed to our south now appears to affect us late Saturday and Saturday night. Most of the precipitation is now expected Saturday night, with just dampness and clouds lingering for Sunday.
The high pressure system that was expected to dominate and suppress the low now appears to be absent. Not a high confidence forecast, especially the amount of clearing on Sunday, as a weak low lingers over PA.
Sat 3/14: Partly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon. Showers possible late afternoon into the evening. High 51.
Sun 3/15: Considerable cloudiness, damp, partial clearing possible in the afternoon. High 50.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 12 2009 at 5:41 pm
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Philadelphia Week Weather Forecast -Thurs AM
The current pattern is one where significant rain storms will be moving just north and just south of us.
The cold front passed through last night and cooler temps are with us. That said, it's March and high temps will be near 50 or above. Normal high is about 53.
For the weekend, high pressure will move to our northeast. A northeasterly flow around the high will keep clouds in our area, as low pressure scoots to our south. I still expect us to remain dry. Currently, the models have temps in the low 50s, but if the northeasterly flow develops, we may have trouble getting out the of the 40s.
Sat 3/14: Partly sunny/partly cloudy. High 52.
Sun 3/15: Considerable cloudiness. High 52 (although, northeast wind may bring temps down to the 40s.)
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 12 2009 at 7:29 am
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Tue, 10 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook -Tues PM
The current pattern is one where significant rain storms will be moving just north and just south of us.
A front will pass through on Wednesday, with a moderate chance of showers. Again, most of the dynamics will pass to our north. Cooler and windy conditions for Thursday and Friday.
The weekend weather, especially Sunday, is uncertain. But things are looking dry as high pressure suppresses low pressure to our south.
Sat 3/14: Tentative: Partly sunny and mild. High 57.
Sun 3/15: Tentative: Considerable cloudiness. Chance of showers late afternoon, but likely to be dry for most of the day. High 51
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 10 2009 at 9:28 pm
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Mon, 09 Mar 2009Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook -Mon PM
A cold front will push through on Wed. Before then, showers will push through on Tues and Wed.
Colder temps return for Thursday and Friday. Temps moderate on Saturday. High pressure is expected to build in for the weekend, suppressing low pressure to our south. Deep low pressure will approach late Sunday. A return to cold early next week.
posted: Mar 09 2009 at 10:36 pm
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Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook -Mon AM
The current pattern is one where significant rain storms will be moving just north and just south of us.
There's a chance of some light showers, especially north, on Tuesday afternoon. Colder temps return for Thursday and Friday. High pressure is expected to build in for the weekend, suppressing low pressure to our south. Some over-running moisture/clouds is possible over the weekend, with rain possible Sunday.
posted: Mar 09 2009 at 7:37 am
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Sun, 08 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sun AM
A series of frontal boundaries centered in Ohio and PA will bring clouds and showers to our area today and tonight. The GFS brings in light showers late afternoon, while the NAM holds off until the evening. The cloud cover will reduce high temps today.
Sun 3/8: Cloudy and mild. High 64. Showers move in late afternoon or evening.
See microblog updates on the weather on Twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy
posted: Mar 08 2009 at 9:22 am
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sun AM
A series of frontal boundaries centered in Ohio and PA will bring clouds and showers to our area today and tonight. The GFS brings in light showers late afternoon, while the NAM holds off until the evening. The cloud cover will reduce high temps today.
Sun 3/8: Cloudy and mild. High 64. Showers move in late afternoon or evening.
posted: Mar 08 2009 at 8:55 am
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Sat, 07 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Sat AM
Saturday will have more sun. Sunday looks like it will have considerable clouds.
Sat 3/7: Partly sunny. High near 62.
Sun 3/8: Mostly cloudy, possible showers late. High near 70.
posted: Mar 07 2009 at 7:08 am
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Fri, 06 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri AM
Warmer air will move in over the weekend. The warming will first occur with the warm air moving in aloft. This warm frontal-type behavior will result in considerable clouds on Saturday. Continued clouds on Sunday possible showers late.
The big question will be the cloud cover. Warm frontal behavior, especially this time of year, can be difficult for the models to pin down. Significant clouds may hold down the warm temps.
Sat 3/7: Considerable cloudiness, bightening skies, some sun possible in the afternoon. High near 62.
Sun 3/8: Mostly cloudy, possible showers late. High near 70.
posted: Mar 06 2009 at 10:42 am
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Thu, 05 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Thur PM
Warmer air will move in over the weekend. The warming will first occur with the warm air moving in aloft. This warm frontal-type behavior will result in considerable clouds on Saturday. There's the chance of a light shower early (NAM model) and less of a chance (GFS).
The big question will be the cloud cover. Warm frontal behavior, especially this time of year, can be difficult for the models to pin down. Significant clouds may hold down the warm temps. If things clear as expected on Sunday, temps could easily approach or exceed 70.
Sat 3/7: Considerable cloudiness, chance of a light shower early, most of the day dry. High near 62.
Sun 3/8: Mix of sun and some clouds. High near 70.
posted: Mar 05 2009 at 8:03 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Thur AM
Warmer air will move in over the weekend. The warming will first occur with the warm air moving in aloft. This warm frontal type behavior will result in considerable clouds on Saturday and more sun on Sunday. Temps in the 60s!
Sat 3/7: Considerable cloudiness, chance of a light shower, most of the day dry. High near 60.
Sun 3/8: Mix of sun and some clouds. High 66.
posted: Mar 05 2009 at 7:22 am
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Tue, 03 Mar 2009Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook
The extreme cold of the past few days will be replaced by milder conditions and possibly some moisture over the weekend.
Sat 3/7: tentative: Partly sunny and mild. High near 60.
Sun 3/8: tentative: Partly sunny and mild. High 54.
posted: Mar 03 2009 at 8:47 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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