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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
   

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  • Glenn F Schreiber
    aka "theweatherguy"

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    Mon, 28 May 2012

    Philly Weekend Weather Update -Mon AM
    High pressure will keep a southwesterly flow of very warm, humid air over us today. Summer-like conditions for the unofficial start of the summer season!

    Yesterday, the NAM-NMM was correct in keeping the thunderstorms to our west. Last night, thunderstorms made it into upper Montgomery and far western Chester county, but dissipated by the time they reached Philadelphia.

    Last night's high resolution NAM model predicts considerable thunderstorm activity in our area today, during the late afternoon and evening hours. This morning's NAM FOUS data shows an lifted index of -8, which indicates unusually high instability and can support heavy thunderstorm development. (We get heavy thunderstorms around here with lifted indexes of -4 to -6; the more negative, the greater the instability of the atmosphere. A lifted index as unstable as -8 isn't very common around here.) While the instability is very high, the vertical movement of the atmosphere doesn't become favorable until this evening.

    Mon 5/28: Mostly sunny, very warm, humid. A good chance of moderate to severe thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening. High 89.

    posted: May 28 2012 at 12:02 pm

    [/weather/may12] permanent link

    Sun, 27 May 2012

    Philly Weekend Weather Update -Sun AM
    The thunderstorms early this morning were poorly captured by the regular models yesterday. Looking over the high resolution WRF-NAM model versions from last night, it appears that the stalled frontal boundary that had been in northern PA has settled a bit further south, closer to us. Daytime heating, and moisture convergence along the boundary will result in more thunderstorms possible during the day today. Depending on which model one looks at, the NMM-NAM (Non Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model) initialized with the NAM/WRF physics has thunderstorms more in western PA, while the NMM-ARW (initialized with the GFS physics) has thunderstorms in our area during the day.

    Sun 5/27: A mix of clouds and sun, very warm and somewhat humid. High 86. Showers and thunderstorms possible anytime during the day, especially during the afternoon.

    Mon 5/28: Partly to mostly sunny, very warm humid. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. High 88.

    posted: May 27 2012 at 8:38 am

    [/weather/may12] permanent link

    Fri, 25 May 2012

    Philly Weekend Weather Outlook -Fri AM
    The latest models have a much drier forecast, with only a slight chance of showers each day. With the drier, forecast, there may be somewhat more clouds than originally thought.

    High pressure centered over the middle of the country will bring a southwesterly flow of warm to hot weather for Memorial Day Weekend. Complicating the picture will be an upper air flow that will contain disturbances likely to trigger afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The most distinct of these disturbances will move through on Sunday. The latest GFS model shows less shower activity than had previously been forecast.

    Sat 5/26: A mix of clouds and sun, very warm and somewhat humid. Slight chance of a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. High 88.

    Sun 5/27: A mix of clouds and sun, very warm and somewhat humid. High 88. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.

    Mon 5/28: Partly to mostly sunny, warm humid. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. High 85

    posted: May 25 2012 at 11:48 am

    [/weather/may12] permanent link

    Philly Weekend Weather Outlook -Fri AM
    High pressure centered over the middle of the country will bring a southwesterly flow of warm to hot weather for Memorial Day Weekend. Complicating the picture will be an upper air flow that will contain disturbances likely to trigger afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The most distinct of these disturbances will move through on Sunday. The latest GFS model shows less shower activity than had previously been forecast.

    Sat 5/26: Mostly sunny, very warm and somewhat humid. Slight chance of a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. High 89.

    Sun 5/27: Sunny the morning, becoming partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible Warm and humid. High 85.

    Mon 5/28: Partly to mostly sunny, warm humid. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. High 88

    posted: May 25 2012 at 8:46 am

    [/weather/may12] permanent link

    Wed, 23 May 2012

    Philly Weekend Weather Outlook -Wed PM
    High pressure centered over the middle of the country will bring a southwesterly flow of warm to hot weather for Memorial Day Weekend. Complicating the picture will be an upper air flow that will contain disturbances likely to trigger afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The most distinct of these disturbances will move through on Sunday.

    Sat 5/26: Mostly sunny, very warm and somewhat humid. Slight chance of a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. High 88.

    Sun 5/27: Sunny the morning, becoming partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Warm and humid. High 85.

    Mon 5/28: Mostly sunny, warm humid. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. High 88

    posted: May 23 2012 at 9:43 pm

    [/weather/may12] permanent link

    Fri, 18 May 2012

    Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
    High pressure will retreat to the northeast and an easterly wind flow will develop over the weekend. Weak low pressure along the coastline will move north and bring the chance of showers by Sunday evening.

    Sat 5/19: Sunny and very nice. High 80

    Sun 5/20: Sunny, then increasingly cloudiness, becoming mostly cloudy by late afternoon. Chance of a light shower very late afternoon. High 79.

    posted: May 18 2012 at 9:50 pm

    [/weather/may12] permanent link

    Thu, 10 May 2012

    Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Thu PM
    The upper trough with cool weather will relax over the weekend, as surface high pressure moves off to the east. The northwesterly flow of cool dry air will be replaced by a surface warmer southwesterly flow aloft. This may bring some clouds in for Sunday, but no precipitation is expected.

    Sat 5/12: Sunny, dry and warm. High 80.

    Sun 5/13: Sunny to start, with some mid-level clouds in the afternoon. High 81.

    posted: May 10 2012 at 9:28 pm

    [/weather/may12] permanent link



    Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

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