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Miscellaneous
Thu, 31 Aug 2006
Big change in Forecast - Thurs PM Revised
My earlier discussion brought out the uncertainty of the current forecast based on giant differences between the NAM-WRF (zero precip) and the GFS (over 3 inches rain).
The GFS has shown incredible consistency: Ernesto was going to punch into a high pressure ridge and bring us heavy rain, starting Friday afternoon. The NAM-WRF has Ernesto being shunted and blocked by very strong high pressure.
For the short term, the NAM-WRF is verifying. High pressure is building into our area from the north and impeding rain from approaching. Confidence in either solution during the next 24 hours is unusually low. The older NGM model may have the right idea--high pressure blocks the rain for Friday, but the rains come in later. I'm going to go with a blend of the GFS/NAM and the old NGM model: which delays the rain until night.
(Latest GFS just became available: still has rain starting Friday afternoon.)
Fri 9/1: Cloudy...rains delayed until evening. Heavy rains develop at night.
Sat 9/2: Rainy and windy. High 72.
Sun 9/3: Lingering showers. Partial clearing in the afternoon. (Forecast uncertain)
Mon 9/4: Partly sunny to mostly sunny. High 84 (Forecast uncertain).
posted: Aug 31 2006 at 10:44 pm
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Big change in Forecast - Thurs PM
My earlier discussion brought out the uncertainty of the current forecast based on giant differences between the NAM-WRF (zero precip) and the GFS (over 3 inches rain).
The GFS has shown incredible consistency: Ernesto was going to punch into a high pressure ridge and bring us heavy rain, starting Friday afternoon. The NAM-WRF has Ernesto being shunted and blocked by very strong high pressure.
For the short term, the NAM-WRF is verifying. High pressure is building into our area from the north and impeding rain from approaching. Confidence in either solution during the next 24 hours is unusually low. The older NGM model may have the right idea--high pressure blocks the rain for Friday, but the rains come in on Saturday and linger. I'm going to go with the NGM model which delays the rain almost 18 hours.
Fri 9/1: Partly/sunny cloudy in the morning, becoming cloudy late in the day. Heavy rains develop at night.
Sat 9/2: Rainy and windy. High 72.
Sun 9/3: Lingering showers. Partial clearing in the afternoon. (Forecast uncertain)
Mon 9/4: Partly sunny to mostly sunny. High 84 (Forecast uncertain).
posted: Aug 31 2006 at 9:51 pm
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Quick Weather Update- Thurs Late Afternoon
Looking at the latest model data....NOGAPS and GFS continue with heavy rains starting about 2PM and continuing into Saturday afternoon. Strangely, the NAM-WRF still has NO RAIN at all through Saturday. I'm continuing to ignore this, but I'm beginning to wonder if I'm ignoring something important. Hard to figure one model with zero and one with 3 inches of rain. With winter storms, this scenario sometimes turns out to be a total fizzler of predicted snowstorms. Gotta wonder if dire predictions of flooding rains is overdone?
The trend is towards slightly slower/later onset with the heaviest amounts mostly occuring Friday night and lingering into Saturday afternoon now. Clearing delayed now and not expected on Saturday. If we go with NAM-WRF, it will rain late Saturday, but we're ignoring this.
The GFS continues to be my preferred model in general, and the NOGAPS, my preferred model for tropical systems.
Still not willing to commit to a forecast for Sunday, with so much short term uncertainty. The bike to NYC event may encounter some rain in NYC. I'll update later.
posted: Aug 31 2006 at 4:54 pm
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Quick Weather Update- Thurs AM
Latest model data just coming available. The GFS continues with rain starting between 12-2 PM on Friday, although amounts are back up to those previously predicted. Trend is towards slightly slower/later onset with the heaviest amounts mostly occuring Friday night and lingering into Saturday afternoon now. Clearing delayed now and not expected on Saturday.
The GFS continues to be my preferred model in general, and the NOGAPS, my preferred model for tropical systems.
The WRF-NAM, which has been least consistent, has the storm lingering in the Carolinas and not affecting us until Saturday night. I'm currently ignoring the NAM model, with its known problems with tropical systems. However, the divergence of forecasts on this storm cannot be completely discounted. Confidence is not as high as I would like with the forecast.
I'll update later when the NOGAPS and more data is available.
posted: Aug 31 2006 at 12:55 pm
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Reduction in Ernesto's Impact? - Thurs AM
Some change with the forecast, based on last night's models. The GFS and NOGAPS continue to have the storm bring heavy rains to our area and the shore Friday through Saturday, although many of the tropical storm models have the center of the moisture moving into central and western PA, with little coastal development. This may mean that rains will be significantly less heavy (and winds significantly lower) than previously expected. Indeed, the 2AM run of the GFS model has precipitation totals way down, with under 2 inches instead of 4+.
There is still uncertainty about how much clearing will occur on Sunday, as a blocking pattern and persistent moist flow may leave plenty of clouds and showers around. The NOGAPS and the GFS clear things out considerably, but the WRF-NAM has another area of low pressure bring showers on Sunday, especially coastal areas.
Fri 9/1: Cloudy with rain developing in the late morning...then windy with heavy rains late afternoon into the night. Flooding possible although looking a bit less likely. High 76. Shore: Heavy rain and windy.
Sat 9/2: Rains and wind taper off during the early afternoon. Some sun may break out in the afternoon. High 76. Shore: Rain ending mid-day. Some sun possible in the afternoon. Continued windy.
Sun 9/3: Mostly cloudy, with some sunny breaks. Still chance of showers during the day. High 79. (Forecast uncertain).
Mon 9/4: Partly sunny. Chance of showers along the coast in the afternoon. High 84 (Forecast uncertain).
I'll update later!
posted: Aug 31 2006 at 5:24 am
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Wed, 30 Aug 2006Late Night Update - Wed PM
Just a quick look at the models tonight...The GFS continues with heavy rain for Philadelphia and the shore, starting late morning on Friday. HOWEVER, the NAM-WRF and old NGM models have it totally dry here!! (It is known that the NAM-WRF is not very good with tropical systems.)
The GFS continues to be my preferred model in general, and the NOGAPS, my preferred model for tropical systems. (The new NOGAPS isn't fully available to me at this hour.)
Just thought I'd mention that the GFS is consistent at this time, but there is not complete consensus with the path of Ernesto's moisture among the major US models. More updates tomorrow.
posted: Aug 30 2006 at 11:12 pm
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Ernesto and Weekend Outlook- Wed PM
Looking over this afternoon's models, many have the remnants of Ernesto moving up the coast, then lifting through central Pennsylvania. We'll be on the northwest quadrant of the storm, with signficant wind and rain, according to the NOGAPS and GFS models. The latest GFS has 3-4 inches of rain in about 24 hours with the heaviest rain from 2 PM on Friday through 2AM Saturday. Winds may be as high as 35-40 mph.
There is still uncertainty about how much clearing will occur on Sunday and Monday, as a blocking pattern and persistent moist flow may leave plenty of clouds and showers around. The NOGAPS is very pessimistic for the balance of the weekend, while the GFS is much drier, beginning Saturday afternoon. I'm going with the more optimistic GFS at this time.
Fri 9/1: Cloudy with rain developing in the late morning...then windy with heavy rains late afternoon into the night. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Heavy rains and strong winds.
Sat 9/2: Heavy rains and wind taper off during the early afternoon. Flooding possible early. Some sun may break out in the afternoon. High 76. Shore: Rain ending mid-day. Some sun possible in the afternoon. Continued windy.
Sun 9/3: Mostly cloudy, with some sunny breaks. Still chance of showers during the day. High 79. (Forecast uncertain).
Mon 9/4: Partly sunny. Chance of showers along the coast in the afternoon. High 84 (Forecast uncertain).
posted: Aug 30 2006 at 7:40 pm
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Heavy Rain Outlook for Friday and Saturday
The models are showing much consistency regarding the moisture remnants of Ernesto, with a coastal track appearing to be very likely.
Ernesto, now over soutwestern Fl, will move northward, with its outflow moisture trapped in an upper wind flow into our area. The NOGAPS and GFS models continue to have tropical storm Ernesto develop into a extra-tropical low pressure that will move up the coast bringing heavy rains to our area at least Friday through Saturday. The latest trends continues with a somewhat inland track, with less development and less wind than previously shown, but it will still be stormy on Friday and Saturday.
There is still uncertainty about how much clearing will occur on Sunday and Monday, as a blocking pattern and persistent moist flow may leave plenty of clouds and showers around. The NOGAPS is very pessimistic for the balance of the weekend, while the GFS is much drier.
Fri 9/1: Cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon...then windy with heavy rains late afternoon into the night. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Heavy rains and strong winds.
Sat 9/2: Heavy rains and wind taper off later during the day. Flooding possible. High 76. Shore: Rain ending late in the day. Continued windy.
Sun 9/3: Mostly cloudy, perhaps some sunny breaks. Still chance of showers during the day. High 79. (Forecast uncertain).
Mon 9/4: Mostly cloudy. Some sun possible. High 82
posted: Aug 30 2006 at 6:58 am
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Tue, 29 Aug 2006Heavy Rains for Friday and Saturday
Ernesto will hit FL as a minimal hurricane or just a tropical storm. The NOGAPS and GFS models continue to have tropical storm Ernesto develop into a potent extra-tropical low pressure that will move up the coast bringing heavy rains to our area at least Friday through Saturday. The GFS and NOGAPS flipped positions on the rest of the weekend, with the NOGAPS continuing with showers through Sunday, but the GFS has us drying out.
The latest trends also showed a more inland track, with less development and somewhat less rain as it makes its way to our area than it showed yesterday.
I'll update later.
posted: Aug 29 2006 at 6:53 am
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Mon, 28 Aug 2006Heavy Rains for the Weekend??
The NOGAPS model is my model of choice to track tropical storms. The current NOGAPS (and backed up by the GFS) has a weak tropical storm/hurricane affecting Florida and then moving up the coast, redeveloping as an extra-tropical noreaster as it gets blocked by high pressure to its north. Currently, heavy-flooding rain and high winds are forecast for Philadelphia and especially the Jersey coast from Friday through Saturday. The GFS continues with the same low pressure causing showers through Sunday.
That said, these scenarios are difficult to forecast, and other models (Canadian, UK, and the DGEX) have the storm redeveloping as a hurricane off of SC and moving out to sea.
While the NOGAPS timing is often a bit off, its forecast track needs to be highly considered.
posted: Aug 28 2006 at 8:03 pm
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Week Weather Outlook
An interesting week, as we'll have some more rain/showers over the next two days, then fair skies from Wednesday through Friday.
Hurricane Ernesto: The Navy NOGAPS model continues to move Ernesto into western Florida on Tues and then moves inland, parallel to the coastline into our area by late Friday, bringing us very heavy rains Friday into Saturday. We need to watch this.
posted: Aug 28 2006 at 6:33 am
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Sun, 27 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Update- Sunday
Heavy rains moved through this morning and the models show a pause in the action for Philadelphia this afternoon. The warm front is slowly moving north of our area and some sun may break through this afternoon. Heavy showers and thunderstorms expected late this afternoon and evening as instability will be enhanced by any sunshine.
Sun 8/27: Some sun and bright skies possible this afternoon before showers and thunderstorms re-develop late afternoon into the night. NJ Beaches: Strong easterly winds will shift to strong southerly winds later this afternoon. Very humid. Showers redevelop.
Hurricane Ernesto: The Navy NOGAPS model has been the most accurate (my observation) for predicting hurricane tracks. The latest NOGAPS model has Ernesto hitting sourthern FL on Tuesday as a moderate strength hurricane. Updates all week.
posted: Aug 27 2006 at 11:42 am
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Sat, 26 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Saturday PM Update
For tonight, the warm front will move north and showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening into Sunday. The current NAM-WRF and GFS models are forecasting fairly heavy showers/rain for Sunday with total rainfall amounts over 1 inch.
Sun 8/27: Cloudy with showers and rain from before daybreak through the day. High 78. NJ Beaches: Cloudy with rain.
posted: Aug 26 2006 at 9:37 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Saturday Update
The warm front has repositioned itself just to our south, and an easterly flow off the ocean will bring clouds and a chance of light drizzle/showers during the day today, Saturday. That 50 mile reposition had signficantly changed the forecast. None of the models got this right.
For tonight, the warm front will move north and showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening into Sunday. The current NAM-WRF is forecasting fairly heavy showers/rain for Sunday.
Sat 8/26: Cloudy with showers lingering in the morning then mostly cloudy, but with breaks of sun possible. Warm and humid. High 79. Showers and rain tonight.
NJ Beaches: Cloudy in the morning. Then some bright spots during the afternoon. High 78. An easterly flow off the ocean expected.
Sun 8/27: Cloudy with showers and rain during the day. High 78. NJ Beaches: Cloudy, chance of showers.
Sunday's forecast still not a certainty. I'll update later.
posted: Aug 26 2006 at 9:06 am
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Fri, 25 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Friday PM Update
It appears that we're entering a less-than-certain forecast scenario. The latest GFS and NAM has showers in the overnight period and into Saturday morning. Cloudy skies for much of Saturday. It appears that the frontal boundary has moved a bit further south at least this evening. The last run of the WRF has this boundary moving north for Sunday. As mentioned yesterday, a slight change in the frontal boundary position will make or break the forecast.
Sat 8/26: Cloudy with showers lingering in the morning then mostly cloudy, but with breaks of sun possible. Warm and humid. High 79.
NJ Beaches: A cloudy start with showers possible in the morning. Then some sun may break out during the afternoon. High 78. (An easterly flow may keep things overcast)
Sun 8/27: Partly cloudy, some sun. Warm and humid. High 83. NJ Beaches: A mix of sun and clouds. No rain expected.
posted: Aug 25 2006 at 10:55 pm
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Friday
The models are consistent with showers developing along a warm front that will be stalled just north of our area during the weekend. Both the GFS and WRF keep most if not all of the showers northern Bucks county and central/north Jersey. It wouldn't take much for the forecast to fall through. The Model Output Statistics (MOS) are forecasting clouds for Saturday and Sunday, but I think they often overstate the cloud cover.
Sat 8/26: Considerable cloudiness, but with breaks of sun. Warm and humid. High 85.
Showers possible but not likely. NJ Beaches: More sun, less clouds. No rain.
Sun 8/27: Continued cloudy with breaks of sun. Warm and humid. High 84. NJ Beaches: A mix of sun and clouds. No rain expected.
posted: Aug 25 2006 at 2:29 pm
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Thu, 24 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
We didn't have the rain predicted for today by the models. No real surprise here, as mentioned in my earlier forecast discussion.
The weekend forecast coming into focus and it's looking better. Much of the precipitation from the warm front and cold front will pass to our north. The Jersey shore looks even drier.
Sat 8/26: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm and humid. High 86. NJ Beaches: More sun, less clouds.
Sun 8/27: A mix of clouds and sun. Some showers possible in the morning. High 82. NJ Beaches: A mix of sun and clouds. Little if any rain expected.
posted: Aug 24 2006 at 8:26 pm
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Week Weather Outlook- Thurs AM
All major models (NAM, WRF and the GFS) show a clipper-type disturbance dropping down from the Great Lakes and exploding a bit as it gets over us. Showers and thunderstorms are likely for Thursday into Thursday evening, as this low pressure system moves through, according to the models. (It will be interesting to see if the rain forecast by the models for Thursday afternoon really develops....the soil moisture is so low and we're in a small drought...the models often overestimate the power of these clipper systems.)
The weekend forecast is very uncertain at this time. High pressure will be departing on Saturday and a warm front is expected to cause showers and some clouds. A cold front may move through on Sunday with more showers.
Sat 8/26: Significant cloudiness, some sun. Warm and humid. High 84 NJ Beaches: More sun, less clouds.
Sun 8/27: Mostly cloudy, with showers and thunderstorms. Exact timing uncertain at this time. High 82. NJ Beaches: same as above, except drier south.
This forecast is likely to change. I'll update later.
posted: Aug 24 2006 at 5:58 am
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Wed, 23 Aug 2006Week Weather Outlook- Wed PM
The "boring weather" I spoke of earlier in the week has also changed and we have some interesting developments in the short range and possibly the weekend.
All major models (NAM-WRF and the GFS) show a clipper-type disturbance dropping down from the Great Lakes and exploding a bit as it gets over us. Showers and thunderstorms are likely for Thursday into Thursday evening, as this low pressure system moves through, according to the models. (It will be interesting to see if the rain forecast by the models for Thursday afternoon really develops....the soil moisture is so low and we're in a small drought...the models often overestimate the power of these clipper systems.)
Things have also changed for the weekend. The weekend forecast is very uncertain at this time. High pressure will be departing on Saturday and a warm front is expected to cause showers and some clouds. A cold front may move through on Sunday with more showers. With the short range forecast having changed so dramatically for Thursday, it would be a guess to predict for this weekend at this time. Consider a mix of clouds and sun, with a chance of a shower on both days. I'll try to pin it down tomorrow.
posted: Aug 23 2006 at 6:23 pm
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Tue, 22 Aug 2006Week Weather Outlook- Tues
Nothing too exciting weatherwise, as high pressure is keeping dry weather with us. A disturbance is predicted to drop down from the northwest on Thursday, possibly giving us some showers. A front will pass through on Sunday.
For the weekend, the current outlook is for fair weather on Saturday and a chance of showers on Sunday with the cold front. Things are changing and I expect the forecast to change by the weekend.
posted: Aug 22 2006 at 6:23 am
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Mon, 21 Aug 2006Week Weather Outlook- Monday
Somewhat boring weather pattern as high pressure will be over us for much of the week. Any showers will be suppressed far to the south.
Generally dry and fair weather through the week.
posted: Aug 21 2006 at 6:23 am
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Sun, 20 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Sunday Update
The front will move through this morning, allowing a shift to westerly winds. A secondary front with drier air will move through late Sunday afternoon.
The experimental high resolution WRF has showers/thunderstorms redeveloping in a scattered way around Philadelphia and just east of Philadelphia late Sunday afternoon and more intensely through NJ in the early evening Sunday.
Sun 8/20: Clouds and will break for some partial clearing and some sun by late morning. High 86. Theres a chance of scattered thunderstorms between 4 and 7PM. NJ Beaches: Cloudy in the morning, some residual showers possible. Clearing with breaks of sun by early afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms early evening between 6-10 PM.
posted: Aug 20 2006 at 1:02 am
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Sat, 19 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Saturday AM Update
Before the days of access to computer models, I used to forecast the weather based on clouds, barometric pressure and wind direction.
Right now, there's a significant amount of "mixed clouds"- an altocumulus layer above (with some cirrus above that) and cumulus congestus layer developing below. This sort of stormy/threatening sky is often found during August, with tropical moisture adding to the instability. I'm wondering if the models are still underestimating the cloudiness and chance of showers today?
Here's my update:
Sat 8/19: More clouds than sunshine, very warm and humid. Cloudy late afternoon. There's a chance of widely scattered showers during the day. High 87. NJ Beaches: Mostly sunny with clouds just inland as instability meets the slightly cooler ocean flow. Chance of showers, mostly inland. Warm, humid with weak variable winds.
Sun 8/20: Clouds and lingering showers will break for some partial clearing and some sun. High 85. NJ Beaches: Cloudy in the morning, some residual showers. Slow clearing with breaks of sun in afternoon. Still uncertainty in this forecast.
posted: Aug 19 2006 at 8:31 am
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Weekend Weather Forecast- Saturday
The models continue to have the bulk of precipitation shearing off to our north on Saturday night/Sunday morning, with a frontal boundary passing through during the morning hours.
The high resolution WRF has showers possible just approaching Philadelphia early this evening (Sat) but continues having the bulk of the heavy precip move just north of Philadelphia proper. At the shore, most of the activity will miss us, although some light showers possible early Sunday morning.
Sat 8/19: A mix of clouds and sunshine, very warm and humid. Some increase in clouds late in the afternoon. High 87. NJ Beaches: Mostly sunny, warm and humid.
Sun 8/20: Clouds and lingering showers will break for some partial clearing and some sun. High 85. NJ Beaches: Cloudy in the morning, some residual showers. Slow clearing with breaks of sun in afternoon.
posted: Aug 19 2006 at 6:53 am
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Fri, 18 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Friday
The latest GFS and NAM models have the bulk of precipitation shearing off to our north on Sunday, with a frontal boundary passing through about noon or early afternoon. Showers prior to the frontal passage on Sunday morning, perhaps with some partial clearing later Sunday afternoon. Slower clearing at the shore on Sunday.
The forecast is complicated a bit by tropical moisture with several disturbances off the coast and along the coast of SC. Some of this moisture may limit sunshine on Saturday and Sunday with more clouds than currently predicted.
Sat 8/19: A mix of clouds and sunshine, warm and humid. Some increase in clouds late in the afternoon. High 87. NJ Beaches: Mixed skies, warm and humid.
Sun 8/20: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible during the morning, into early afternoon. High 85. NJ Beaches: Cloudy, showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
posted: Aug 18 2006 at 12:58 pm
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Thu, 17 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Outlook- Uncertain Sunday Forecast
Diffuse area of showers and low pressure, predicted by the GFS to move through on Sunday, is depicted quite differently by the DGEX, which shows a distinct frontal passage late on Sunday in Philadelphia and even later at the shore.
There's uncertainty about Sunday's forecast.
Sat 8/19: Mostly sunny, warm and humid. Some increase in clouds late in the afternoon. High 87. NJ Beaches: More sun, warm and humid.
Sun 8/20: Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88. NJ Beaches: Becoming cloudy later in the day. Showers at night.
posted: Aug 17 2006 at 6:36 am
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Wed, 16 Aug 2006Weekend Weather Outlook- Wednesday
A tropical low is meandering around the NC coast. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict little development at this time.
As mentioned in my last forecast outlook, low pressure is expected to develop along a stalled boundary just south of our area and move over us on Sunday. The latest GFS model and DGEX (Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension) show rain moving in Saturday night and lasting much of the day on Sunday and even more so at the shore.
Sat 8/19: Sunny in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon. Warm and humid. High 87. NJ Beaches: More sun, warm and humid.
Sun 8/20: Mostly cloudy with rain during the morning, tapering in the afternoon. Perhaps some late clearing. High 87. NJ Beaches: Cloudy with rain throughout the day.
posted: Aug 16 2006 at 5:42 pm
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Tue, 15 Aug 2006Philly Weather Update - Tuesday
The front is currently to our west with most of the showers and thunderstorms shearing off to our north.
Last night's WRF has most of the showers dissipating this morning in Philadelphia, then areas of showers re-develop about 2 PM into this evening, with most of the activity just to the east of Philadelphia. Most of the activity will lack dynamics to truly develop in our area.
High pressure builds in after the frontal passage. The weekend is looking iffy, as low pressure is expected to develop along a stalled front and move in from the west late Saturday through Sunday. A less than ideal day for Sunday currently the outlook.
posted: Aug 15 2006 at 6:35 am
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Mon, 14 Aug 2006Philly Weather Update - Monday PM
The humidity and heat returned as expected.
A cold front passing through our area on Tuesday will cause showers and thunderstorms during the mid-day hours in Philadelphia and stronger storms to our east and south during Tuesday afternoon. The GFS has the front somewhat slower than the NAM/WRF with the NAM WRF having showers in Philadelphia during the early morning.
We also have to watch a weak tropical disturbance, which may organize a bit more near the coast of NC, according to the WRF.
posted: Aug 14 2006 at 9:20 pm
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Philly Weather Update - Monday
Warmer weather returns for later today, Monday, as a southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring back more humidity and higher temps.
The cold front, originally scheduled to pass through tonight/early Tues, is now forecast to pass through late afternoon on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are predicted by the WRF for late Tuesday afternoon.
We also have to watch a weak tropical disturbance, which is right off the coastline. The WRF has this developing slightly and moving up and away at the present time.
posted: Aug 14 2006 at 6:28 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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