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Miscellaneous
Sun, 31 Dec 2006
When will the Rain Start Tonight? - Sunday AM
There are timing differences with the NAM and GFS models for the start of the rain. This is a warm front system at its start- the models are often too slow with precip here. The latest GFS run from 1AM this morning has the rain starting in Philadelphia as early as 9PM tonight. (I know the radio is saying midnight, but that's why you're reading this forecast.)
Sun 12/31: Mostly sunny in the morning...increasing clouds in the afternoon. Rain starts light about 8-10 PM and becomes heavier towards midnight. Heavy rains before sunrise Monday.
Mon 1/1: Cloudy with heavy rain, especially in the morning. High 52. Rain ends mid to late afternoon. Some brightening skies during the late afternoon but no sun expected.
Happy New Year!
posted: Dec 31 2006 at 9:19 am
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Fri, 29 Dec 2006Weather Update - Friday PM
Fair weather for much of the weekend, but clouds will increase during the afternoon on Sunday as low pressure moves in from the west. Fairly heavy rain is expected on New Years Day (Monday) during the morning hours, tapering off during the mid afternoon.
Sat 12/30: Considerable clouds in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon. High 52.
Sun 12/31: Mostly sunny in the morning...increasing clouds in the afternoon. Rain starts light about 9 PM.
Mon 1/1: Cloudy with heavy rain, especially in the morning. High 48. Some brightening skies during the late afternoon.
posted: Dec 29 2006 at 8:58 pm
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Weather Update - Friday
The warm pattern continues! The models don't have any truly cold air coming down here for the next two weeks! No snow...I've never December weather maps look like this.
Sat 12/30: Mostly sunny and mild. High 53
Sun 12/31: Mostly sunny in the morning...increasing clouds in the afternoon. Chance of showers around midnight.
Mon 1/1: Cloudy with heavy rains, especially in the morning. High 48.
posted: Dec 29 2006 at 7:28 am
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Wed, 20 Dec 2006Xmas Weather Forecast - Wed AM
A very amplified jet stream pattern will develop over the coming week, but we will be on the eastern, warm side of the jet pattern.
The amplified jet pattern will develop significant rainstorms for our area over the weekend and next Tuesday. No sign of snow at this time.
Sat 12/23: Clouds and heavy rain, especially in the morning. Mild. High 57.
Sun 12/24: Mostly sunny and mild. High 55.
Mon 12/25: Sunny in the morning, cloudy in the afternoon. Chance of showers late. High 56.
I'll be away for the next week or so. No Internet access, so the weather will have to go on without me. Happy Holidays!
posted: Dec 20 2006 at 6:57 am
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Mon, 18 Dec 2006Weather Outlook Discussion - Mon PM
A change in the medium range model forecast, as this very warm weather will be interrupted for a Tuesday through Friday. The pattern moves back to a bit milder temps next weekend, although some heavy rain is possible Friday night into Saturday. A mild and likely wet Xmas weekend shaping up, with the current GFS predicting heavy rains for Xmas day. Details with timing not quite clear at this time.
Somewhat above normal temperatures continues to be in the cards for us. A more stormy pattern is developing, beginning this weekend, but the chances of snow are low all the way into the beginning of January. (There are a few storms predicted by the GFS in the future where the cold air may change rain to snow before ending, but no accumulating snow for Philadelphia showing through Jan 2nd. Of course, it this may change.
posted: Dec 18 2006 at 9:37 pm
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Sun, 17 Dec 2006Weather Outlook Discussion - Sun PM
A change in the medium range model forecast, as this very warm weather will be interrupted for a brief cool-down Wednesday and Thursday. The pattern moves back to a warmer pattern next weekend, although some heavy rain is possible late Friday. A warm and possibly wet Xmas shaping up.
Looking at the very long range GFS model, a setup for our first winter storm may be as early as Dec 27- Dec 28th. And the very beginning of January is looking quite stormy here as well. Enjoy the current pattern while we can!
posted: Dec 17 2006 at 6:56 pm
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Sat, 16 Dec 2006Week Weather Outlook- Sat PM
A change in the medium range model forecast, as this very warm weather will be interrupted for a brief cool-down Wednesday and Thursday. The pattern moves back to a warmer pattern next weekend, although some showers or rain is possible. A warm and possibly wet Xmas shaping up.
Sun 12/17: Partly to mostly sunny. High near 60.
posted: Dec 16 2006 at 10:50 pm
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Fri, 15 Dec 2006Week Weather Outlook- Fri AM
Warm weather continues through the weekend, with temperatures in the 50s to near 60.
The models continue to hint at a pattern change for the end of next week (Dec 22). Low pressure will develop and approach from the southwest. Areas to our north may have their first snow, but not enough cold air here for snow (as it appears now.) The jet stream will edge down near our area.
Sat 12/16: Sunny. High 53.
Sun 12/17: Mostly sunny. High 58.
posted: Dec 15 2006 at 8:35 am
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Thu, 14 Dec 2006Week Weather Outlook- Thurs AM
Warm weather continues through the weekend, with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s!
The models have been consistent in bringing in a weather change next week in the Dec 20- Dec 21st time frame, with heavy rains followed by somewhat more seasonable temperatures.
The pattern for NEXT weekend (not this) is an interesting one. Major differences in temperature will be in our area and a significant storm is possible the weekend before Xmas. Whether or not we'll have snow is still uncertain, but it's looking more like rain at this juncture.
Sat 12/16: Sunny. High 54.
Sun 12/17: Sunny. High 60.
posted: Dec 14 2006 at 7:12 am
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Wed, 13 Dec 2006Week Weather Outlook- Wed PM
A somewhat unusual jet stream configuration, with VERY COLD air in CALIFORNIA and very MILD temperatures HERE is predicted by the models for the coming end of the week and almost through Xmas.
High pressure will build in late tonight and skies will clear by Thursday. Mild warm weather for the next several days!
Sat 12/16: Sunny. High 54.
Sun 12/17: Sunny. High 60.
posted: Dec 13 2006 at 7:55 pm
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Tue, 12 Dec 2006Week Weather Outlook- Tues AM
A somewhat unusual jet stream configuration, with VERY COLD air in CALIFORNIA and very MILD temperatures HERE is predicted by the models for the coming end of the week.
Temperatures will be above normal through the next week and a half. Last night's models even extend this warm trend here to almost Xmas.
A weak cold front will pass through Wednesday morning giving us some rain. Temperatures cool down a bit again Friday but remain above average.
Sat 12/16: Sunny. High 56.
Sun 12/17: Sunny. High 56.
posted: Dec 12 2006 at 7:40 am
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Mon, 11 Dec 2006Week Weather Outlook- Mon PM
A somewhat unusual jet stream configuration, with VERY COLD air in CALIFORNIA and very MILD temperatures HERE is predicted by the models for the coming end of the week.
Temperatures will be above normal through the next week and a half.
A weak cold front will pass through Wednesday giving us some light rain showers. Temperatures cool down a bit again Friday but remain above average.
The coming weekend looks nice!
The current pattern, while mild right now, continues to have the ingredients for some major storms for us this winter. It's a sharp, highly amplified pattern and it's just a matter of a slight change in location of the jet for things to get interesting here.
posted: Dec 11 2006 at 7:00 pm
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Sun, 10 Dec 2006Weekend Weather- Sun AM
Not much happening as a mild jet stream pattern, courtesy of El Nino, will be with us through Dec 21st!
Temperatures will be above normal through the next week and a half, as the medium and long range models have the cold air in the west and in Canada. A front will pass through Wednesday through Thursday, giving us some rain showers. Temperatures will cool down again Friday and then moderate again next weekend. Next weekend looks nice! Boring meteorologically! :-)
Sun 12/10: Sunny and milder. High near 50.
posted: Dec 10 2006 at 8:59 am
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Fri, 08 Dec 2006Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
It's cold out there tonight, but a warmup is coming! Cold air will rapidly retreat over the weekend, as high pressure builds in from the west. A warmer flow of air is in store for us for the next week.
I've been looking at the long range model forecasts, and there isn't much chance of snow for us until after Dec 21st. Of course things can change in such a long range outlook, but right now, a mild El Nino is in our immediate future.
Sat 12/9: Mostly sunny. After a cold start, temperatures moderate in the afternoon. High near 45.
Sun 12/10: Sunny and milder. High near 49.
posted: Dec 08 2006 at 8:54 pm
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Thu, 07 Dec 2006Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs
Following a deep cold outbreak on Friday, the temperatures are expected to moderate quickly this weekend. High pressure in control.
After Friday, winter is disappearing for awhile. The latest medium range model for next week has mild temperatures for most of the week and rain on Wednesday.
Sat 12/9: Mostly sunny. After a cold start, temperatures moderate in the afternoon. High near 46.
Sun 12/10: Sunny and milder. High near 50.
posted: Dec 07 2006 at 7:03 am
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Wed, 06 Dec 2006Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed
I'm almost over my disappointment with the NAM-WRF model light snow forecast that I went with on Sunday. The old NAM (Eta) did really well with northern/western extents of precipitation...this was the first opportunity to see the new NAM-WRF in a winter forecast. We'll have to lean towards the GFS on future forecasts.
Following a deep cold outbreak on Friday, the temperatures are expected to moderate quickly this weekend. High pressure in control.
Sat 12/9: Mostly sunny. After a cold start, temperatures moderate in the afternoon. High near 46.
Sun 12/10: Sunny and milder. High near 50.
posted: Dec 06 2006 at 7:24 pm
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Mon, 04 Dec 2006First Winter Snow Post Mortem
The GFS model (which had zero snow for us) was correct this time...precipitation was in NJ but not as far west as Philadephia. I went with the NAM. Live and learn.
Cold weather for the balance of today and much of the week.
posted: Dec 04 2006 at 7:06 am
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Sun, 03 Dec 2006First Winter Snow Update - Sun PM
The latest NAM-WRF model data just became available.... consistent with 0.18 inches QPF water falling as snow before daybreak, about 7AM Monday morning. Similar values for NE Philadelphia (0.15) but significantly less for Chester county= Pottstown (0.02)
Temperatures at or just above freezing will reduce accumulations as previously mentioned. Areas just outside the city may have little or nothing.
High temps on Monday will likely be only in the upper 30s!
posted: Dec 03 2006 at 9:51 pm
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Snow Update - Sunday Afternoon
The afternoon model runs are in....the GFS has ZERO precipitation for Philadelphia and the NAM-WRF has 0.18 inches water for the gridpoint PHL airport.
We're on the western fringe of the expect precip. The last time we had this discrepancy between zero (GFS) and .18 inches (NAM), the NAM was more accurate.
So I'm going with some light wet snow, ending between 7 and 8 AM on Monday. Accumulations are not expected to be much (if colder this could be 2-3 inches of snow), but surface temperatures are expected to be just above freezing, so little will accumulate except on colder surfaces. Atmospheric thickness levels do support snow in Philadelphia, so it will likely fall as snow, not rain or sleet.
I'll update later, about 10PM, if things change.
For the long range, the rest of the week will be cold and quiet. Probably cold through next weekend. We begin a warming trend next week again.
posted: Dec 03 2006 at 5:19 pm
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Light Snow for Monday
As I've been saying since Thursday, the models have been predicting a coastal storm and we've been on the western fringe of the probability path for the storm's precipitation. The statistical models have all included chance snow for our area.
The latest GFS and NAM-WRF models just available this morning show varying amounts of light snow for our area on or about daybreak Monday. The NAM has 0.19 inches water and the GFS has it a bit colder and less precip. (This is for PHL- Philadelphia airport....even lesser amounts north and west.)
Looking at the statistical ensemble forecast from the GFS, the statistical versions have increased the probability of snow for Philadelphia. So getting some snow here is now likely, especially early Monday morning starting before daybreak. Temperatures will be at or above freezing, so the precip probably will fall as snow with a bit of accumulation, from as little as a dusting to less than an inch. Areas in the Philadelphia suburbs may have nothing.
Any snow or flurries we do get will end during the rush hour.
I'll update later.
Sun 12/3: Partly cloudy/sunny in the morning. Increasing clouds late in the afternoon. High upper 40s. Chance of light snow or flurries late Sunday night into Monday morning.
posted: Dec 03 2006 at 10:45 am
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Fri, 01 Dec 2006Cold Weather Coming. Light Snow early Monday??
Deeper thickness of cold air will be advancing into our area over the next several days.
The big question is the path of the coastal storm that is expected to develop Sunday evening. The latest NOGAPS now has it far offshore. The latest GFS has light snow just brushing Philadelphia, with NJ likely seeing some light snow although temperatures will likely be too high for any accumulations.
Looking at the statistical ensemble forecast from the GFS, some statistical versions of the GFS has the light snow extending into Philadelphia. So getting some snow here still a possibility, especially early Monday morning starting before daybreak. Temperatures will be above freezing, but the precip probably will fall as light snow or flurries without accumulating. Stay tuned.
Sat 12/2: Partly to mostly sunny and colder. High in the mid to upper 40s.
Sun 12/3: Partly cloudy/sunny in the morning. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High upper 40s. Chance of light snow or flurries late Sunday night into Monday morning.
posted: Dec 01 2006 at 9:23 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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