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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
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Miscellaneous
Sat, 29 Dec 2012
Philly Winter Weather Update -Sat 8 AM
Last night's model runs at 1 AM show a somewhat colder thermal profile with snow still possible. The NAM and the experimental HRRR (High resolution rapid refresh) shows most of the precipitation in the afternoon, as the coastal low revs up. 1-3 inches still possible N and W of the city , but little to none in the city and NJ, according to these models. This forecast scenario has a lower than usual confidence level due to the fact that the storm is just undergoing cyclogenesis on our doorstep.
posted: Dec 29 2012 at 9:12 am
[/weather/dec12] permanent link
Philly Winter Weather Update -Fri 11 PM
The models are showing warm temps. Expect snow-->sleet and rain-->snow. about 1 inch total. Low confidence forecasy
posted: Dec 29 2012 at 12:02 am
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Fri, 28 Dec 2012Philly Winter Weather Update -Fri 9 PM
The latest NAM model has snow starting between 7-8 AM. The QPF is still about 0.35 inches water. Ordinarily this would be 3-5 inches snow. One uncertainty is the temperature, which is forecast to rise above freezing, especially in NJ. As a result, accumulations would be reduced, possibly considerably. Another unknown is the rate of cyclogenesis off the coast. If strengthening occurs faster, the amount of precip could be greater. The confidence in this storm's snow forecast is lower than usual.
posted: Dec 28 2012 at 9:52 pm
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Philly Weekend Weather Weather - Fri PM
Fast moving disturbance along a frontal boundary will move to our south on Saturday, spawning a coastal low pressure system off the coast, giving us snow. The NAM model shows considerable strengthening far off the Jersey coastline, resulting in a fair amount of snow linger over us in the afternoon. Approximately 0.35 inches QPF (water equivalent fallling) translates into about 3-5 inches of snow for us. (Should development quicken, snowfall could be greater.) Snow starts in the morning, may mix with some sleet/rain briefly before changing back to snow, ending later afternoon. This warming may reduce accumulations.
Sat 12/29: Cloudy, snow develops in the morning and ends lae afternoon. Currently 3-5 inches expected, although there may be some melting on roadways, as temps may in the mid 30s.
Sun 12/30: Mostly sunny, windy and cold. High 36.
posted: Dec 28 2012 at 2:54 pm
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Thu, 27 Dec 2012Philly Winter Weather Update -Wed PM
The latest NAM and GFS models show about 0.25 water falling as snow beginning early Saturday morning. It ends early Saturday afternoon. This translates into 2-4 inches of snow.
posted: Dec 27 2012 at 7:30 pm
[/weather/dec12] permanent link
Tue, 25 Dec 2012Philly Weather Update -Tues PM
The latest NAM model has rain starting after 1PM on Wednesday. Very heavy rain Wedneday evening. No snow for PHL.
posted: Dec 25 2012 at 10:43 pm
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Mon, 24 Dec 2012Philly Weather Update -Mon PM
The latest NAM model continues to forecast the chance of very wet snow later this afternoon and this evening. The NAM model cranks out about 0.20 inches of water equivalent. In Philadelphia and to its immediate north and west, the precipitation will likely be very wet snow, but it's unclear whether there will be any accumulation more than than a coating to perhaps 1 inch mainly on the grassy surfaces. If temperatures were just a bit colder this type of storm could produce as much as 2 inches or so, but the temperature profiles really don't support that. In fact temperatures might be rising a bit towards morning.
posted: Dec 24 2012 at 12:35 pm
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Sun, 23 Dec 2012Philly Weather Update -Sun PM
The latest NAM model has some very wet snow northwestern suburbs Monday evening. The upper atmosphere is cold enough to support snow, but surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing likely preventing any accumulation.
posted: Dec 23 2012 at 10:54 pm
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Sat, 22 Dec 2012Philly Weekend Weather Weather - Sat AM
The associated deep low pressure system with yesterday's cold frontal passage, now in eastern Canada will slowly fill, but our area will be affected by the deep cyclonic flow today, giving us windy conditions. On Sunday, mostly sunny skies for much of the day, but an increase in mid level cloudiness during the afternoon hours as a weak warm front approaches.On X-mas eve, low pressure will move to our south. Cloudiness with a chance of light showers late afternoon or evening, may mix with light wet snow as it ends.
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Sat 12/22: Cloudiness in the morning breaks for partly to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Windy. High seasonably cold at 42, but will feel colder due to windy conditions.
Sun 12/23: Mostly sunny, but increasing cloudiness as a warm front approaches. High 44.
Mon 12/24: Mostly cloudy. Some light sprinkles and rain showers late afternoon which may mix with light wet snow before ending in the evening.
posted: Dec 22 2012 at 7:07 am
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Fri, 14 Dec 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
A warm front will move through the area on Sunday. Before then, departing high pressure will allow some mid level clouds to move in Saturday afternoon.
The actual front moves through Sunday, preceded by light showers in the morning and heavier rain in the later afternoon and evening.
Sat 12/15: Sunny in the morning, increasing mid level clouds in the afternoon.
High 50.
Sun 12/16: Cloudy, light scattered showers possible in the morning, heavier rain develops in the afternoon and evening. High 53.
posted: Dec 14 2012 at 11:22 pm
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Fri, 07 Dec 2012Philly Weekend Weather Weather - Fri PM
A series of fronts move through this weekend. A warm front moving through this evening will be followed by a weak cold front. Another warm front moves through on Sunday into Monday. Fast changing cloud cover and temperatures are expected over the next few days.
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Sat 12/8: Cloudy early, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Clouds move back in towards evening. High 58.
Sun 12/9: Partly cloudy early, becoming cloudy, with a chance of light showers in the early afternoon. High 50.
posted: Dec 07 2012 at 6:46 pm
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Sun, 02 Dec 2012Philly Weekend Weather Weather - Sun AM
Yesterday's "psuedo warm front" has turned into an classic warm front, and a slow moving one at that. The fog we have this morning indicates the front is still to our south; the actual warm air boundary at the surface wont' come through until this evening, possibly with showers. Tomorrow we will finally get the promised 60 degree temps. (hopefully)
Sun 12/2: Foggy, then cloudy. Chance of showers late afternoon or evening. High 54.
posted: Dec 02 2012 at 8:13 am
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Sat, 01 Dec 2012Philly Weekend Weather Weather - Sat AM
Welcome to December! Our highly changeable weather continues with milder temps followed by another cold front for mid week.
For this weekend, high pressure will drift off to our east allowing a southwesterly flow of milder air to enter our area for Sunday. The warm air is moving over colder air at the surface as a pseudo warm front, giving significant mid level clouds on Sunday despite the milder temps.
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Sat 12/1: Clouds break for some sun in the afternoon. Milder. High 54.
Sun 12/2: Considerable mid-level clouds for much of the day. Mild. High 59.
posted: Dec 01 2012 at 9:50 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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