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Miscellaneous
Wed, 30 May 2007
Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues PM
High pressure will drift off of the coast by the weekend. A moist southwesterly flow is predicted behind the high as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Areas of vorticity (upper air disturbances) around the approaching low pressure system may bring unsettled weather (showers and thunderstorms) over the weekend, both Saturday and Sunday, especially on Sunday.
The pattern is rather diffuse, according to the GFS, so I expect changes in the forecast as the weekend approaches. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s, giving us a warm, humid weekend.
posted: May 30 2007 at 7:24 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Fri, 25 May 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
High pressure will continue to block disturbances entering our area, although this blocking ridge will break down slowly. There is a chance of showers/thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in some areas, but the rain will not be widespread.
Sat 5/26: Mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. Chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms only about 40%. High 86
Sun 5/27: A mix of sun and clouds. Chance of showers/thunderstorms later in the afternoon and especially the evening. High 82.
posted: May 25 2007 at 7:37 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Wed, 23 May 2007Weather Outlook- Wed
A high pressure system will remain over us, off the Atlantic, through the early part of the weekend. Small disturbances approaching from the west will be deflected north, over the top of the high. Nice weather continues through early Sunday, although weak disturbances will try to get through this blocking high pressure ridge. This blocking high will breakdown during Sunday, allowing showers and unsettled conditions late Sunday through Monday.
posted: May 23 2007 at 6:01 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Tue, 22 May 2007Weather Outlook- Tuesday
A change in the pattern has developed, with a summer-like Bermuda high setting up in the Atlantic. Small disturbances approaching from the west will be deflected north, over the top of the high. Nice weather through the week, with low humidity and fair skies. The longer range GFS has this continuing through the weekend, with only a slight chance of a shower.
posted: May 22 2007 at 7:52 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Mon, 21 May 2007Weather Outlook- Monday
A beautiful week shaping up. Temps in the upper 70s and then low 80s. Some increase in clouds and possible light showers over the weekend, as a low pressure disturbance approaches from the west, but right now, next weekend, especially the first part, looks overall dry.
posted: May 21 2007 at 7:55 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Sat, 19 May 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Saturday AM
A much nicer day today, than previously thought. The GFS model has joined the NAM in predicting wrap around showers Saturday night, keeping the day time period dry. Generally improving conditions on Sunday.
Sat 5/19: Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds in the late afternoon. Showers in the evening. Cool. High 67
Sun 5/20: Cloudy early, then becoming mostly sunny and improving conditions. High near 73.
posted: May 19 2007 at 6:42 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Fri, 18 May 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
Despite the difficulties of predicting the surface conditions from an upper low, the models are the best we can do. (Today was much drier than previously expected.) The GFS model has joined the NAM in predicting wrap around showers Saturday night, keeping the day time period mostly dry. Generally improving conditions on Sunday.
Sat 5/19: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning, broken clouds in the afternoon. Showers by evening. Cool. High 67
Sun 5/20: Partly sunny and improving conditions. High near 70.
posted: May 18 2007 at 7:11 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri AM
While low confidence in the model depiction remains with the upper closed low moving over our area, the latest model output keeps us dry for most of Saturday and Sunday. The rain/showers will be towards our east, into NJ. Conditions improve on Sunday. Changes are likely with this forecast.
Sat 5/19: Partly sunny. Cool. Showers at night. High 70.
Sun 5/20: Becoming mostly sunny. High 72.
posted: May 18 2007 at 5:07 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Thu, 17 May 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs PM
As early as this past Monday, the GFS hinted at a closed low formation around our area. Both the GFS and NAM show the upper closed low affecting us over the weekend, but big differences in the precipitation coverage and timing exist. Regardless of the model, closed lows and their surface low depiction are incredibly difficult to forecast and the amount of sunshine, clouds and rain is almost impossible to forecast. The GFS has shower exiting on Sunday, the NAM keeps things showery through Sunday.
The only thing I can say is that sometimes the forecast with a closed low is much more pessimistic than what actually occurs. Confidence in the forecast specifics is very low.
Sat 5/19: Partly cloudy/sunny. Cool. Chance of mostly showers/thunderstorms. High 73
Sun 5/20: Partly cloudy/sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. High 73
posted: May 17 2007 at 5:08 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Wed, 16 May 2007Week Weather Outlook- Wed AM
A cold front moves through today, with thunderstorms between 4 and 8 PM tonight.
The GFS continues the depiction of a closed low for the weekend, with an uncertain forecast. Currently, the forecast for the weekend has mostly the chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The weekend forecast is low confidence.
Sat 5/19: Partly cloudy/sunny. Chance of mostly afternoon showers/thunderstorms. High 73
Sun 5/20: Partly cloudy/sunny. Chance of mostly afternoon showers/thunderstorms. High 73
posted: May 16 2007 at 6:30 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Tue, 15 May 2007Week Weather Outlook- Tues PM
A cold front moves through on Wednesday, with the NAM showing a high chance of thundershowers later Wednesday.
The GFS has reverted back to showing a closed low and surface low for the coastal areas for the weekend. Predictions of upper closed lows is notoriously difficult, and especially their surface low developments. So there's uncertainty in the weekend forecast. It could be very nice, but it could be cloudy with showers. Unusually low confidence in the weekend forecast.
posted: May 15 2007 at 7:16 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Mon, 14 May 2007Week Weather Outlook- Mon
Typical spring time weather for the coming week- a series of warm fronts and cold fronts moving through, with the greatest chance of precipitation on Thursday and Friday.
The big question is whether a closed, cut off upper low will form over our area next weekend. The latest GFS model reduces that possibility, but it's a scenario we'll have to watch for.
posted: May 14 2007 at 6:39 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Sat, 12 May 2007Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat AM
An upper air disturbance will rapidly pass through to our south this evening, pulling down a frontal boundary and cooler air for Sunday. The GFS model has some showers in central and southern areas today, but keeps Philadelphia dry. Both the NAM and GFS has about .70 inches of rain falling towards midnight, clearing by Sunday morning.
Sat 5/12: Mostly sunny, but areas to our west and south will have more clouds. Cloudiness moves into our area late afternoon. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm likely towards midnight. High 74.
Sun 5/13: Partly to mostly sunny. Windy. High upper 60s to near 70.
posted: May 12 2007 at 7:34 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Fri, 11 May 2007Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri PM
Saturday is looking better, as the latest GFS has only a weak upper disturbance affecting us during the evening hours. Cooler weather builds in for Sunday as high pressure drops down from Canada.
Sat 5/12: Mostly sunny. Some cloudiness during the late afternoon. Light showers possible during the evening. High 74.
Sun 5/13: Partly to mostly sunny. High 70.
posted: May 11 2007 at 1:08 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Thu, 10 May 2007Week Weather Outlook - Thurs AM
A weak front will move through tonight (Thurs) with shower and thunderstorms. The front will linger into Friday, allowing the chance of showers to continue. Another front will move through Saturday night.
Sat 5/12: Sunny in the morning, cloudy in the afternoon. Showers at night. High 74.
Sun 5/13: Partly sunny. High 70.
posted: May 10 2007 at 6:35 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Wed, 09 May 2007Week Weather Outlook - Wed AM
A warmer, moist flow will bring dewpoints into the low 60s. A mix of clouds and sun, with showers increasingly likely through Friday.
The latest models have a cold front pushing through faster, on Friday instead of Saturday. High pressure builds in for the weekend.
Sat 5/12: Partly sunny. High 74.
Sun 5/13: Mostly sunny. High 70.
posted: May 09 2007 at 5:10 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Tue, 08 May 2007Week Weather Outlook - Tues AM
The weak pattern continues for the next several days, as a closed upper low off of the SC/FL coastline meanders around and causes instability later in the week as it gets absorbed into the main circulation. Temperatures will be warming over the next few days, and the latest GFS model has instability showers developing randomly from the Thursday through Saturday period.
A cold front will push through on later Saturday, with showers. High pressure builds in for Sunday. Fair skies return on Sunday.
Sat 5/12: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. High 75
Sun 5/13: Mostly sunny. High 74.
posted: May 08 2007 at 6:13 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Mon, 07 May 2007Week Weather Outlook - Mon AM
A weak weather pattern for the next several days, as a closed upper low off of the SC/FL coastline breaks a standard Bermuda high pattern. Mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures.
A cold front will push through on Friday through Saturday, with showers. High pressure builds in for Sunday. Fair skies and cool temperatures return on Sunday.
Sat 5/12: Outlook: Partly sunny/cloudy. High 75
Sun 5/13: Outlook: Sunny and cooler. High 70.
posted: May 07 2007 at 6:19 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Sat, 05 May 2007Weekend Forcast- Sat PM
A stronger cold front than previously expected will pass through Saturday night. Some clouds, perhaps a shower, are now expected with the frontal passage later Saturday. Fair skies return on Sunday, but it will be cooler and WINDY.
Sun 5/6: Mostly sunny and WINDY. High 63.
posted: May 05 2007 at 9:13 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Fri, 04 May 2007Weekend Forcast- Fri PM
A stronger cold front than previously expected will pass through Saturday night. Some clouds, perhaps a shower, are now expected with the frontal passage later Saturday. Fair skies return on Sunday, but it will be cooler.
Sat 5/5: Sunny in the morning and early afternoon, increasing clouds in the mid and late afternoon. High 70.
Sun 5/6: Sunny and continued beautiful. High 61.
posted: May 04 2007 at 8:39 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Weekend Forcast- Fri
A stronger cold front than previously expected will pass through Saturday night. Some clouds, perhaps a shower, are now expected with the frontal passage later Saturday. Fair skies return on Sunday, but it will be cooler.
Sat 5/5: Sunny and beautiful. High 70.
Sun 5/6: Sunny and continued beautiful. High 61.
posted: May 04 2007 at 3:46 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Thu, 03 May 2007Weekend Forcast- Thurs AM
Relatively simple forecast, as high pressure is expected to build down from Canada for the next several days. Cool, dry weather and sunny skies through Monday. All models in agreement with this, although clouds and showers won't be too far to our south, in the Virginias. The NWS has updated the GFS model and the updated model has become operational as of 5/1.
Sat 5/5: Sunny and beautiful. High 70.
Sun 5/6: Sunny and continued beautiful. High 69.
posted: May 03 2007 at 6:37 am
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Tue, 01 May 2007Weather Outlook-Tues PM
High pressure is expected to nose down over our area for the weekend, shunting any moisture and rain to our south. A nice, but cool weekend expected at this time.
More details tomorrow.
posted: May 01 2007 at 9:14 pm
[/weather/may07] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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