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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Wed, 24 Oct 2012
Possible Major Storm Sunday into Monday- Wed PM Update
The latest two runs of the NOGAPS model continues to have Hurricane Sandy undergo explosive cyclogenesis as it transforms to a severe Nor'easter near the New Jersey coast and phases with the upper air trough associated with a stallling cold front. The tilt of the system becomes extremely negative and the storm moves westward and inland. (Even the latest GFS has this event occuring, although the GFS waits for it to move toward New England.) With the NOGAPS, having much continuity from model run to model run, confidence in the storm disrupting and affecting our area is increasing. The NOGAPS has rain moving in as early as late Saturday afternoon with at least 24 hours of high winds and very heavy rains.
Stay tuned for updates.

posted: Oct 24 2012 at 6:32 pm

[/weather/oct12] permanent link

Possible Major Storm Sunday into Monday- Wednesday Update
Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to move up from the Caribbean, intensify along the eastern Florida coastline, possibly become a hurricane, and then move up along the east coast of the US, possibly coming inland around NJ as a hurricane or major extratropical Nor'easter.
While the computer models show varying tracks, with some of them keeping the storm far off the coast, my regular readers know I favor the Navy NOGAPS model for predicting tropical tracks. The NOGAPS takes this tropical storm/hurricane and transforms it into a dangerous extratropical monster-- a deep Nor'easter that brushes the NJ coastline and affects eastern PA with heavy rains and high winds. Should the NOGAPS be correct, this would be a major disruptive storm.
Wednesday AM Update: The NOGAPS and the European ECMWF models continue with the idea of intense deepening of this system undergoing almost "explosive cyclogenesis" as the tropical storm that moves westward to phase with the slow moving upper air trough/cold front. The NOGAPS is faster with bringing the storm into our area, with rain starting by late Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday. The ECMWF moves the timeframe from Sunday into Monday.
The GFS continues with curving the storm track away from PA and NJ, although its track has moved westwart last night.
Based on the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, this continues to be a potentially major wind and rain storm and needs to be watched. More updates later.

posted: Oct 24 2012 at 8:53 am

[/weather/oct12] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Wed, 24 Oct 2012 Possible Major Storm Sunday into Monday- Wed PM Update The latest two runs of the NOGAPS model continues to have Hurricane Sandy undergo explosive cyclogenesis as it transforms to a severe Nor'easter near the New Jersey coast and phases with the upper air trough associated with a stallling cold front. The tilt of the system becomes extremely negative and the storm moves westward and inland. (Even the latest GFS has this event occuring, although the GFS waits for it to move toward New England.) With the NOGAPS, having much continuity from model run to model run, confidence in the storm disrupting and affecting our area is increasing. The NOGAPS has rain moving in as early as late Saturday afternoon with at least 24 hours of high winds and very heavy rains. Stay tuned for updates. posted: Oct 24 2012 at 6:32 pm [/weather/oct12] permanent link Possible Major Storm Sunday into Monday- Wednesday Update Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to move up from the Caribbean, intensify along the eastern Florida coastline, possibly become a hurricane, and then move up along the east coast of the US, possibly coming inland around NJ as a hurricane or major extratropical Nor'easter. While the computer models show varying tracks, with some of them keeping the storm far off the coast, my regular readers know I favor the Navy NOGAPS model for predicting tropical tracks. The NOGAPS takes this tropical storm/hurricane and transforms it into a dangerous extratropical monster-- a deep Nor'easter that brushes the NJ coastline and affects eastern PA with heavy rains and high winds. Should the NOGAPS be correct, this would be a major disruptive storm. Wednesday AM Update: The NOGAPS and the European ECMWF models continue with the idea of intense deepening of this system undergoing almost "explosive cyclogenesis" as the tropical storm that moves westward to phase with the slow moving upper air trough/cold front. The NOGAPS is faster with bringing the storm into our area, with rain starting by late Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday. The ECMWF moves the timeframe from Sunday into Monday. The GFS continues with curving the storm track away from PA and NJ, although its track has moved westwart last night. Based on the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, this continues to be a potentially major wind and rain storm and needs to be watched. More updates later. posted: Oct 24 2012 at 8:53 am [/weather/oct12] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.