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Miscellaneous
Mon, 31 May 2010
Weather Update -Mon PM
As mentioned this morning, several experimental vey high resolution models have thunderstorms developing to the west of Philadelphia. Due to the mid and low level winds, these storms may stay just to the west of Philadelphia and are even less likely to affect New Jersey.
posted: May 31 2010 at 4:32 pm
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Philadelphia Memorial Day Weather -Mon AM
A very warm, almost hot day today as temperatures approach 90 degrees and dew points move into the middle 60's.
Several models have thunderstorms developing to the west of Philadelphia later this afternoon and move them near PHL by about 5-6 PM. (The Jersey shore may escape until much later tonight.) It's not entirely clear if the thunderstorms make it into Philly until very late tonight.
Mon 5/31: Mostly sunny and hot. High 90. Chance of a thunderstorm late afternoon or early evening.
posted: May 31 2010 at 9:48 am
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Sat, 29 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Sat PM
Well, the models did poorly today, as neither the NAM or GFS predicted the dry weather and the relatively sunny skies we enjoyed.
For Sunday and Monday, things seem to be simpler as much warmer temps and higher dew points move into the area. The NAM has thunderstorms late on Monday.
Sun 5/30: Mostly sunny, and much warmer. High 88.
Mon 5/31: Mostly sunny and hot. High 90. Chance of a thunderstorm late afternoon or early evening.
posted: May 29 2010 at 6:03 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update-Sat AM
There is greater consensus with the model forecasts today. An unusual backdoor cold front has become stationary to our west and south. Showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop along this frontal boundary. The GFS and NAM models both show clouds in the morning and some breaks of sun in the afternoon. Some light showers possible. The front is expected to wash out for Sunday and Monday, but there's some showers showing for late Monday.
Sat 5/29: Cloudy and damp in the morning. Some light sprinkles possible. Partial clearing, still a chance of sprinkles/light showers. High 78.
Sun 5/30: Sunny, and warmer. High 86.
Mon 5/31: Mostly sunny very warm and more humid. Chance of a shower late afternoon. High 90.
posted: May 29 2010 at 4:01 am
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Fri, 28 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Fri PM
There's a lack of clarity with this weekend's weather forecast. An unusual backdoor cold front has become stationary to our west and south. Showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop along this frontal boundary. The GFS and NAM models differ with the precipitation along this front and into our area on Saturday. Frankly, any forecast for this Saturday is a guess. The front is expected to wash out for Sunday and Monday, but there's even now some showers showing for Monday. Expect the unexpected for the weekend! (Some forecast, heh?)
Sat 5/29: Cloudy and damp in the morning. Some light sprinkles possible. Possible showers, possible clearing later afternoon. High 78.
Sun 5/30: Partly sunny, and warmer. High 83.
Mon 5/31: Partly cloudy and warmer and more humid. High 87.
posted: May 28 2010 at 5:27 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update -Fri AM
Not too surprised by the change in forecast, as the models were showing this scenario earlier in the week. The unusual backdoor cold front hangs up in our area on Saturday. Both the GFS and NAM show a chance of showers early on Saturday and maintain cloudiness through much of the day. Things still expected to clear out for Sunday, but with little model consistency, will have to update again later.
Sat 5/29: Cloudy and damp in the morning. Some light sprinkles possible. Clearing later afternoon. High 78.
Sun 5/30: Sunny, pleasant and warmer. High 83.
Mon 5/31: Sunny and warmer and more humid. High 87.
posted: May 28 2010 at 6:19 am
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Wed, 26 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Wed PM
A cold front will pass through the area Friday night and high pressure will build in over the weekend. A southwesterly flow will develop Sunday and warmer and more humid air will be with us on Monday. A splendid weekend appears to be in the offering.
Sat 5/29: Sunny and very pleasant. High 78.
Sun 5/30: Sunny, pleasant and warmer. High 83.
Mon 5/31: Sunny and warmer and more humid. High 87.
posted: May 26 2010 at 3:42 pm
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Tue, 25 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Tue PM
There has not been much consistency in the forecast for the Memorial Day weekend but the current trend is for a cold front to move through on Friday and high pressure to build in for the weekend. (Previously, the front was expected to stall over the area,but that no longer the case. ). So things look very good right now.
Sat 5/29: Sunny and pleasant. High 78.
Sun 5/30: Sunny and warm. High 83.
posted: May 25 2010 at 9:51 pm
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Sun, 23 May 2010Solar Climate Discussion 5-23-10
Since last summer, I have been forecasting that the prolonged period of relative solar inactivity that corresponded with the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24 would result in cooler temperatures for the fall and winter of 2009-2010. This would occur despite the warming influence of an El ni\361o and greenhouse gases. While the evidence for this trend doesn't necessarily show in Philadelphia's climate data, it certainly shows in areas of the southeastern US.
The solar minimum truly ended in December of 2009 with the increase in sunspots that was observed hailing the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.
Solar cycle 24 has truly ramped up, although many predict that this cycle's maximum will be lower than previous cycles during the past 30 years.
With the recent increase in solar activity and solar wind, are the effects of the this lull in activity gone? Do the low solar flux effects accumulate, or are they subtle, and with the increase in recent activity, the effects become unnoticeable? With such a mild March, is the hypothesized cooling from last year's low solar irradiance proven false?
These are questions that scientists who study solar effects of climate are trying to answer. I certainly don't have the answer. I see the year 2010 as a year that will provide clues. One thing that has impressed me is how little the average temperatures were depressed by the lowered solar irradiance. This suggests that either the"solar effect" is minimal or, more likely, the greenhouse signal is able to overshadow the the lowered solar effect.
Recently, solar activity has gone into a lull again and solar flux is below the predicted value for cycle 24. It's a wait and see approach. We will see if the solar minimum continues to suppress the effects of greenhouse warming. Volcanic ash from the Iceland volcano is also contributing to cooler temps. The current cool temps are expected to linger into June.
posted: May 23 2010 at 4:26 pm
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Fri, 21 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Fri AM
High pressure will move off the coast this weekend and a weak area of low pressure and moisture will try to move in. The rain will arrive during the evening or nighttime hours Saturday.
Sat 5/22: Partly sunny in the morning. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High 82.
Sun 5/23 Cloudy. Rain appears to be likely. High 74.
posted: May 21 2010 at 9:31 am
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Sun, 16 May 2010Philadelphia Week Weather Outlook
High pressure will depart to our northeast and allow warm air to attempt to return to our area. The GFS model keeps this frontal boundary to our south and shows weak low pressure developing on this frontal boundary, giving us chance of showers Tuesday into early Wednesday.
It currently appears that next weekend will be dry and mild.
posted: May 16 2010 at 9:23 pm
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Sat, 15 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Sat PM
High pressure over our area will move to the northeast, allowing warm air to try to move in. A warm frontal boundary develops Monday to our south. Some of the warmer air moves in aloft here on Sunday, giving us some high cloudiness, especially during the afternoon.
Sun 5/16: Mostly sunny, but with increasing high level cloudiness during the mid and late afternoon.. High 74.
posted: May 15 2010 at 5:51 pm
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Wed, 12 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Wed PM
The clouds will break on Thursday. On Friday, another area of low pressure will move through from the west, bringing a cold front through in the late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be with us late Friday and Friday evening. Cool and drier high pressure builds in for the weekend.
Sat 5/15: Sunny and breezy. High 71.
Sun 5/16: Sunny and milder. High 73.
posted: May 12 2010 at 9:23 pm
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Mon, 10 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Mon PM
The dry and cold weather pattern will change briefly this week as a warm front moves through Tuesday night accompanied by showers. Another area of low pressure will move through from the west, bringing a cold front and more showers on Friday. Cool and drier high pressure builds in for the weekend.
Sat 5/15: Sunny and breezy. High 73.
Sun 5/16: Sunny and milder. High 75.
posted: May 10 2010 at 9:01 pm
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Sat, 08 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Sat PM
The front came through and the winds have picked up as expected. Reviewing the moisture fields for this afternoon, I would say that I over predicted the cloudiness that I had expected from the instability this afternoon.
That said, the GFS is still showing cloudiness to develop this evening as an area of moisture moves through and the clouds will last into Sunday.
Sun 5/9: A mix of clouds and sun. Continued cool. High 60.
posted: May 08 2010 at 5:50 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Fri PM
Update: High Resolution Rapid Refresh continues the trend of very light sprinkles and showers before the frontal passage Saturday morning.
A fairly strong cold front will move through Saturday morning, between 8 and 10 AM. The NAM has zero precip, but its parameters suggest both vertical motion (+31) and instability (lifted index -1). The latest GFS has less than 0.07 inches water as a quick shower.
The cold air aloft will result in instability cloudiness both Saturday and possibly Sunday. Windy and much cooler conditions for Saturday and Sunday.
Sat 5/8: Cloudy early with a brief sprinkle or light shower possible before 11AM, then windy and sunny for brief period. Cold air aloft will then cause cloudiness in the afternoon. High 70.
Sun 5/9: A mix of clouds and sun. Continued cool. High 60.
posted: May 08 2010 at 4:52 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Update- Fri PM
Update: High Resolution Rapid Refresh continues the trend of very light sprinkles and showers before the frontal passage Saturday morning.
A fairly strong cold front will move through Saturday morning, between 8 and 10 AM. The NAM has zero precip, but its parameters suggest both vertical motion (+31) and instability (lifted index -1). The latest GFS has less than 0.07 inches water as a quick shower.
The cold air aloft will result in instability cloudiness both Saturday and possibly Sunday. Windy and much cooler conditions for Saturday and Sunday.
Sat 5/8: Cloudy early with a brief sprinkle or light shower possible before 11AM, then windy and sunny for brief period. Cold air aloft will then cause cloudiness in the afternoon. High 70.
Sun 5/9: A mix of clouds and sun. Continued cool. High 60.
posted: May 08 2010 at 4:52 pm
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Fri, 07 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
The upper air pattern will become cyclonic, allowing a series of frontal boundaries to move through over the weekend. A fairly strong cold front will move through Saturday morning, between 8 and 10 AM. The NAM has zero precip, but its parameters suggest both vertical motion (+31) and instability (lifted index -2). The latest GFS has less than 0.07 inches water as a quick shower.
The cold air aloft will result in instability cloudiness both Saturday and possibly Sunday. Windy and much cooler conditions for Saturday and Sunday.
Sat 5/8: Cloudy early with a brief sprinkle or shower possible before 11AM, then windy and sunny for brief period. Cold air aloft will then cause cloudiness in the afternoon. High 70.
Sun 5/9: A mix of clouds and sun. Continued cool. High 60.
posted: May 07 2010 at 4:18 pm
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Thu, 06 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs PM
The upper air pattern will become cyclonic, allowing a series of frontal boundaries to move through over the weekend. A fairly strong cold front will move through Saturday morning. Both the NAM and GFS have light showers quickly moving through on Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will result in instability cloudiness both Saturday and possibly Sunday. Windy and much cooler conditions for Saturday and Sunday.
Sat 5/8: Cloudy with light showers possible in the morning, then cloudy with breaks of sun in at the afternoon. Very windy. High 70.
Sun 5/9: A mix of clouds and sun. Continued cool. High 60.
posted: May 06 2010 at 4:14 pm
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Tue, 04 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Tue PM
The upper air pattern will become cyclonic, allowing a series of frontal boundaries to move through over the weekend. Windy and much cooler conditions for Saturday and Sunday.
Sat 5/8: Partly cloudy, windy and cooler. High 72.
Sun 5/9: Partly sunny/partly cloudy and continued cool. High 60.
Solar Climate Discussion: I've gone climate temperature neutral as we wait to see if the recent solar minimum has affected our temperatures. Recently, solar activity has taken another break, and there has been a string of spotless days and lowered solar irradiance.
posted: May 04 2010 at 9:37 pm
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Sun, 02 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sun AM
The NAM and GFS still differ on the timing of the heavy thunderstorms today. We'll check out the accuracy of the new High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, which has rain and thunderstorms, (fairly heavy) in the far western suburbs during the afternoon and moving into Philadelphia between 5-8 PM this evening. (The NAM delays the rain until after midnight)
Sun 5/2: Some sun early, then increasing cloudiness. A good chance of showers and thundershowers in the far western suburbs during the afternoon and Philadelphia 5-8PM. High 86.
Solar Climate Discussion: I've gone climate temperature neutral as we wait to see if the recent solar minimum has affected our temperatures. Recently, solar activity has taken another break, and there has been a string of spotless days and lowered solar irradiance.
posted: May 02 2010 at 9:21 am
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Sat, 01 May 2010Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat PM
An approaching cold front on Sunday will slow it's eastward movement as it tries to move through Sunday evening. The models differ with handling of the front with the GFS suggesting showers as early as late Sunday afternoon, but the NAM has showers mostly late Sunday into Monday morning. The high resolution WRF NMM version has heavy thunderstorms moving into our area late Sunday afternoon and evening and I think this is the most likely scenario.
Sun 5/2: Some sun early, then increasing cloudiness. A good chance of showers and thundershowers in the far western suburbs during the afternoon and Philadelphia after 6 PM. High 86.
Solar Climate Discussion: I've gone climate temperature neutral as we wait to see if the recent solar minimum has affected our temperatures. Recently, solar activity has taken another break, and there has been a string of spotless days and lowered solar irradiance.
posted: May 01 2010 at 5:34 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Sat AM
An approaching cold front on Sunday will slow it's eastward movement as it tries to move through Sunday evening. The models differ with handling of the front with the GFS suggesting showers as early as late Sunday afternoon, but the NAM has showers mostly late Sunday into Monday morning. The high resolution WRF NMM version has heavy thunderstorms moving into our area late Sunday afternoon and evening and I think this is the most likely scenario.
Sun 5/2: Some sun early, then increasing cloudiness. A good chance of showers and thundershowers in the far western suburbs during the afternoon and Philadelphia after 6 PM. High 86.
Solar Climate Discussion: I've gone climate temperature neutral as we wait to see if the recent solar minimum has affected our temperatures. Recently, solar activity has taken another break, and there has been a string of spotless days and lowered solar irradiance.
posted: May 01 2010 at 5:30 pm
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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