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Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Mon, 19 Dec 2011
Philadelphia Winter Climate Forecast- December
Here's a repost of my winter climate forecast--
While climate forecasting is not my forte (for that matter, I don't think it's anyone's forte) I do like to share with my readers what I'm thinking about regarding the upcoming 2011-2012 winter season.
My regular readers know that two years ago, I put great stock in the solar cycle (and a lesser extent the sea surface temperature cycles) to predict a very cold winter.
We have now reached a point in the current solar cycle where the expected observed increase in total solar irradiance has become evident. We are two years away from the solar maximum. While this solar maximum will be significantly lower than our last two cycles, and we are coming off of a significantly lengthy solar minimum, it's my opinion that this coming winter will approach the very mild winters we had in 1999 and 2000.
During those winters, we had unseasonably warm periods throughout the winter. Certainly we had stretches of cold weather and snow, but the 60-70 degree temps we had this weekend were very similar at that stage of the solar cycle. Add to this the greenhouse gases and I think we will have large stretches of very mild weather this winter and on average it will be very warmer than normal.
In recent past winters, we haven't really seen winter-like weather until after December 15th and I expect that to occur this year as well. But overall, I think we'll see repeated long stretches of mild weather occurring in December, January, and February this season.
I guess we'll find out if the solar cycle does affect our winter this year.

posted: Dec 19 2011 at 10:31 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link
Fri, 16 Dec 2011
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A sharpening upper cyclonic flow with low pressure scooting out to sea to our south will usher in colder temps over the weekend. Some cloudiness from the low will be with us on Saturday.
As in past weeks, the amplified jet stream relaxes on Monday, allowing moderating temps to return.
Sat 12/17: Considerable cloudiness, some sun. Breezy. High 44.
Sun 12/18: Sunny and cold. High 41.

posted: Dec 16 2011 at 10:06 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link
Fri, 09 Dec 2011
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
Low pressure is moving up the coastline this evening along the old frontal boundary that moved through on Thursday. The immediate Philadelphia area will just have some cloudiness associated with this low early Saturday. As the low passes, a weak frontal boundary moves through and colder air filters in for late Saturday and Sunday.
The amplified jet stream relaxes on Monday, allowing moderating temps to return.
Sat 12/10: Some cloudiness in the morning, especially east of Philadelphia. More sunshine in the afternoon. High 44.
Sun 12/11: Sunny and cold. High 42.

posted: Dec 09 2011 at 9:04 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link
Wed, 07 Dec 2011
Philadelphia Winter Weather Update-Wed 10PM
The latest NAM model just became available. Colder air aloft moves into Philadelphia by 1AM. Precipitation ends by daybreak. Based on this data and the latest experimental HRRR model run, expect a coating to 1 inch in the immediate PHL area, but areas in Montgomery county and Chester and NW Bucks may have 1-3 inches when it ends near daybreak.

posted: Dec 07 2011 at 10:03 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link

Philadelphia Winter Weather Update-Wed 8PM
No real changes with the models and the forecast.
The NAM continues to have the precip linger in Philadelphia long enough that a coating to an inch of wet snow is possible before ending by about 9 AM Thursday morning.
The GFS clears out the precip sooner, leaving little chance of snow at the end. Again, this will be a good chance to evaluate the recently updated/improved NAM model.

posted: Dec 07 2011 at 8:39 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link
Tue, 06 Dec 2011
Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow?
There are differences between the GFS and NAM models for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS has most of the precipitation ending before the cold air moves in. The NAM has cold air moving in early Wednesday evening while maintaining precipitation. The GFS has typically been very good, but the new NAM model has a chance to show its stuff tomorrow night.
So, this storm will be an interesting test of the new NAM model. If it's correct, expect a couple of inches of wet snow by daybreak Thursday. If the GFS is correct, expect just wet conditions, maybe a coating of wet snow on grassy surfaces. Will update again tomorrow.
10PM update-- latest NAM just became available. Like the GFS, most of the precip ends before the cold air moves in. Maybe a coating of snow at daybreak Thursday.

posted: Dec 06 2011 at 10:48 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link

Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow?
There are differences between the GFS and NAM models for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS has most of the precipitation ending before the cold air moves in. The NAM has cold air moving in early Wednesday evening while maintaining precipitation. The GFS has typically been very good, but the new NAM model has a chance to show its stuff tomorrow night.
So, this storm will be an interesting test of the new NAM model. If it's correct, expect a couple of inches of wet snow by daybreak Thursday. If the GFS is correct, expect just wet conditions, maybe a coating of wet snow on grassy surfaces. Will update again tomorrow.

posted: Dec 06 2011 at 7:55 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link
Mon, 05 Dec 2011
Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow on Thurs?
Too early to take seriously, but the new NAM model has significant snow for us at daybreak Thursday. Current NAM model has an intensifying low pressure system hugging the coastline late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. More than 4 inches is possible, according to the NAM. Stay tuned.
Monday 10 pm update- Tonight's NAM model keeps the colder air just west of Philadelphia for most of Wednesday night. The changeover to snow occurs early Thursday morning, but the heavier precipitation will have ended keeping accumulations very light in Philadelphia. Updates to continue.

posted: Dec 05 2011 at 10:31 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link

Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow on Thurs?
Too early to take seriously, but the new NAM model has significant snow for us at daybreak Thursday. Current NAM model has an intensifying low pressure system hugging the coastline late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. More than 4 inches is possible, according to the NAM. Stay tuned.

posted: Dec 05 2011 at 8:29 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link
Fri, 02 Dec 2011
Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Fri PM
A similar pattern to last weekend, as colder air on Saturday quickly retreats as milder air moves in on Sunday ahead of a stalled cold front in the middle of the country. The weekend will be dry as a large high pressure system remains over us. The milder air moves in late Saturday and some mid-level cloudiness expected Sunday afternoon.
Sat 12/3: Sunny and a bit chilly. Some cloudiness very late afternoon. High 50.
Sun 12/4: Mostly sunny early, Mid-level cloudiness in the afternoon. Milder. High 57.

posted: Dec 02 2011 at 5:29 pm

[/weather/dec11] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Mon, 19 Dec 2011 Philadelphia Winter Climate Forecast- December Here's a repost of my winter climate forecast-- While climate forecasting is not my forte (for that matter, I don't think it's anyone's forte) I do like to share with my readers what I'm thinking about regarding the upcoming 2011-2012 winter season. My regular readers know that two years ago, I put great stock in the solar cycle (and a lesser extent the sea surface temperature cycles) to predict a very cold winter. We have now reached a point in the current solar cycle where the expected observed increase in total solar irradiance has become evident. We are two years away from the solar maximum. While this solar maximum will be significantly lower than our last two cycles, and we are coming off of a significantly lengthy solar minimum, it's my opinion that this coming winter will approach the very mild winters we had in 1999 and 2000. During those winters, we had unseasonably warm periods throughout the winter. Certainly we had stretches of cold weather and snow, but the 60-70 degree temps we had this weekend were very similar at that stage of the solar cycle. Add to this the greenhouse gases and I think we will have large stretches of very mild weather this winter and on average it will be very warmer than normal. In recent past winters, we haven't really seen winter-like weather until after December 15th and I expect that to occur this year as well. But overall, I think we'll see repeated long stretches of mild weather occurring in December, January, and February this season. I guess we'll find out if the solar cycle does affect our winter this year. posted: Dec 19 2011 at 10:31 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Fri, 16 Dec 2011 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM A sharpening upper cyclonic flow with low pressure scooting out to sea to our south will usher in colder temps over the weekend. Some cloudiness from the low will be with us on Saturday. As in past weeks, the amplified jet stream relaxes on Monday, allowing moderating temps to return. Sat 12/17: Considerable cloudiness, some sun. Breezy. High 44. Sun 12/18: Sunny and cold. High 41. posted: Dec 16 2011 at 10:06 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Fri, 09 Dec 2011 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM Low pressure is moving up the coastline this evening along the old frontal boundary that moved through on Thursday. The immediate Philadelphia area will just have some cloudiness associated with this low early Saturday. As the low passes, a weak frontal boundary moves through and colder air filters in for late Saturday and Sunday. The amplified jet stream relaxes on Monday, allowing moderating temps to return. Sat 12/10: Some cloudiness in the morning, especially east of Philadelphia. More sunshine in the afternoon. High 44. Sun 12/11: Sunny and cold. High 42. posted: Dec 09 2011 at 9:04 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Wed, 07 Dec 2011 Philadelphia Winter Weather Update-Wed 10PM The latest NAM model just became available. Colder air aloft moves into Philadelphia by 1AM. Precipitation ends by daybreak. Based on this data and the latest experimental HRRR model run, expect a coating to 1 inch in the immediate PHL area, but areas in Montgomery county and Chester and NW Bucks may have 1-3 inches when it ends near daybreak. posted: Dec 07 2011 at 10:03 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Philadelphia Winter Weather Update-Wed 8PM No real changes with the models and the forecast. The NAM continues to have the precip linger in Philadelphia long enough that a coating to an inch of wet snow is possible before ending by about 9 AM Thursday morning. The GFS clears out the precip sooner, leaving little chance of snow at the end. Again, this will be a good chance to evaluate the recently updated/improved NAM model. posted: Dec 07 2011 at 8:39 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Tue, 06 Dec 2011 Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow? There are differences between the GFS and NAM models for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS has most of the precipitation ending before the cold air moves in. The NAM has cold air moving in early Wednesday evening while maintaining precipitation. The GFS has typically been very good, but the new NAM model has a chance to show its stuff tomorrow night. So, this storm will be an interesting test of the new NAM model. If it's correct, expect a couple of inches of wet snow by daybreak Thursday. If the GFS is correct, expect just wet conditions, maybe a coating of wet snow on grassy surfaces. Will update again tomorrow. 10PM update-- latest NAM just became available. Like the GFS, most of the precip ends before the cold air moves in. Maybe a coating of snow at daybreak Thursday. posted: Dec 06 2011 at 10:48 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow? There are differences between the GFS and NAM models for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS has most of the precipitation ending before the cold air moves in. The NAM has cold air moving in early Wednesday evening while maintaining precipitation. The GFS has typically been very good, but the new NAM model has a chance to show its stuff tomorrow night. So, this storm will be an interesting test of the new NAM model. If it's correct, expect a couple of inches of wet snow by daybreak Thursday. If the GFS is correct, expect just wet conditions, maybe a coating of wet snow on grassy surfaces. Will update again tomorrow. posted: Dec 06 2011 at 7:55 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Mon, 05 Dec 2011 Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow on Thurs? Too early to take seriously, but the new NAM model has significant snow for us at daybreak Thursday. Current NAM model has an intensifying low pressure system hugging the coastline late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. More than 4 inches is possible, according to the NAM. Stay tuned. Monday 10 pm update- Tonight's NAM model keeps the colder air just west of Philadelphia for most of Wednesday night. The changeover to snow occurs early Thursday morning, but the heavier precipitation will have ended keeping accumulations very light in Philadelphia. Updates to continue. posted: Dec 05 2011 at 10:31 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow on Thurs? Too early to take seriously, but the new NAM model has significant snow for us at daybreak Thursday. Current NAM model has an intensifying low pressure system hugging the coastline late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. More than 4 inches is possible, according to the NAM. Stay tuned. posted: Dec 05 2011 at 8:29 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Fri, 02 Dec 2011 Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Fri PM A similar pattern to last weekend, as colder air on Saturday quickly retreats as milder air moves in on Sunday ahead of a stalled cold front in the middle of the country. The weekend will be dry as a large high pressure system remains over us. The milder air moves in late Saturday and some mid-level cloudiness expected Sunday afternoon. Sat 12/3: Sunny and a bit chilly. Some cloudiness very late afternoon. High 50. Sun 12/4: Mostly sunny early, Mid-level cloudiness in the afternoon. Milder. High 57. posted: Dec 02 2011 at 5:29 pm [/weather/dec11] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.