theweatherguy's website
Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
About this blog
theweatherguy's website,
"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."
aka "theweatherguy"
Copy link for RSS feed
These are a few of my favorite links. Meteorology Glossary
Weather Archives:
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
12: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
11: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
10: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
09: Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
07: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
06: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Commentary:
Miscellaneous
Sat, 31 Mar 2007
Weekend Forecast- Sat AM
This deck of middle level clouds, associated with warm air, will move by to our north later this morning. Clouds will break for some sun in the afternoon.
For Sunday, a front will bring rain later in the afternoon on Sunday, probably after 4 PM.
Sat 3/31: Some early clouds, then partly sunny and mild. High 57
Sun 4/1: Breaks of sun very early, then becoming cloudy. Rain starts around 3-5 PM. High 54.
posted: Mar 31 2007 at 7:20 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Fri, 30 Mar 2007Fine Tuning the Forecast- Fri AM
High pressure will be with us over the weekend. Earlier, it appeared that a low pressure system would approach from the west on Sunday, but the latest GFS has it shearing off to our west, while a warm front moves through Sunday night. Sunday should be dry for most of the day.
Sat 3/31: Some early clouds, then mostly sunny and mild. High 59
Sun 4/1: Some sun early, then increasing clouds during the afternoon. Light showers late in the afternoon.. High 56.
posted: Mar 30 2007 at 5:18 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Thu, 29 Mar 2007Weekend is looking Better- Thurs PM
High pressure will be with us over the weekend. Earlier, it appeared that a low pressure system would approach from the west on Sunday, but the latest GFS has it shearing off to our west, while a warm front moves through Sunday night. Sunday should be dry.
Sat 3/31: Sunny and mild. High 59
Sun 4/1: Mostly sunny early, some increase in high clouds during the afternoon. High 56.
posted: Mar 29 2007 at 4:39 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Wed, 28 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed AM
Cooler air filters back in, as a result of a backdoor cold front last night. Nice weather through Saturday.
For Sunday, a disturbance from the midwest will bring showers to our area, especially by Sunday afternoon. There's a lack of consensus on how much precip we'll get on Sunday. Latest models have the precip mid-day.
Sat 3/31: Sunny and mild. High 58
Sun 4/1: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially in the afternoon. High 56
posted: Mar 28 2007 at 6:37 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Tue, 27 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Tues AM
The warm front went through last night and very mild temps are expected today.
A transitional period for the balance of the week, where a weak pattern will maintain clear skies and seasonable mild temperatures. This nice weather will extend into Saturday.
For Sunday, a disturbance in the midwest will bring showers to our area, especially by late Sunday afternoon.
Sat 3/31: Sunny and mild. High 65
Sun 4/1: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially in the afternoon. High 65
posted: Mar 27 2007 at 6:52 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Mon, 26 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Monday AM
A warm frontal boundary will move through later today with possible showers. A warm flow will be with us on Tuesday, before another weak cold front move through. Temps in the upper 50s to near 60 will be with us for the balance of the week into the weekend.
The weekend looks mild and dry.
Sat 3/31: Sunny and mild. High 60
Sun 4/1: Partly cloudy. High 62.
posted: Mar 26 2007 at 6:30 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Sat, 24 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat AM
The models, (as somewhat expected) did not do well with timing of the rain. (Last night, I checked the NAM-WRF and updated the forecast. The NAM had dry conditions for this morning, despite the large area of rain that was then in Pittsburgh. This rain has moved over to our area this morning.)
Last night's GFS (which became available later) has a somewhat more dismal Saturday, with rain through 10-11 AM today and continued cloudy conditions.
Sat 3/10: Cloudy with rain through 10-11 AM and clouds remain, although some brightening skies possible early afternoon. High 50. Showers again at night.
Sun 3/11: Early morning clouds, becoming partly to mostly sunny. High 57.
posted: Mar 24 2007 at 6:03 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Fri, 23 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM
A frontal boundary is moving through our area tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected as the showers move to our south. Another disturbance will move along the front tomorrow afternoon and night, bringing more showers.
Current models seem to keep the periods with clouds and rain at night with mostly dry conditions during the daytime on Saturday.
Sat 3/10: Cloudy early, then some breaks of sun possible late morning, but clouds return by afternoon. High 53. Showers night.
Sun 3/11: Becoming partly sunny. High 59.
posted: Mar 23 2007 at 9:10 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Thu, 22 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Thurs PM
A stalled frontal boundary near us with weak low pressure systems developing and moving along the front will present a forecasting problem for the weekend.
Current models seem to keep the periods with clouds and rain at night with mostly dry conditions during the daytime on Saturday and Sunday.
Sat 3/10: Cloudy early, then some breaks of sun. An easterly flow will keep things cool. High 50. Showers at night.
Sun 3/11: Showers end very early, then partly sunny. High 48.
posted: Mar 22 2007 at 8:39 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Weekend Weather Outlook - Thurs AM
A stalled frontal boundary near us with weak low pressure systems developing and moving along the front will present a forecasting problem for the weekend. Timing these disturbances will be difficult and the NAM and GFS models differ in their handling of this feature. Latest GFS has most of the rain Friday night and Saturday night, giving us a break (of sorts) during the day Saturday and especially Sunday.
Sat 3/10: Cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. High. 54
Sun 3/11: Cloudy in the morning, residual showers, then partial clearing in the afternoon. High 55.
posted: Mar 22 2007 at 6:07 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Wed, 21 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Outlook - Wed PM
A tougher forecast is emerging, as the GFS is showing a stalled frontal boundary near us with disturbances developing along the front and moving over us from Friday through much of Sunday. While it won't be raining the entire time (and timing this rain will be difficult), the earlier promise of a nicer Sunday has vanished for now. We'll also have to watch for an easterly flow, that may supress temperatures.
Sat 3/10: Cloudy with a chance of showers, especially in the afternoon. High 55.
Sun 3/11: Continued cloudy with a chance of showers. High 55.
posted: Mar 21 2007 at 5:38 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Weekend Weather Outlook - Wed AM
A front will approach on Saturday giving us a good chance of showers. Skies clear on Sunday.
Sat 3/10: Cloudy with a chance of showers, especially in the afternoon. High 67.
Sun 3/11: Sunny and continued mild, but cooler than Saturday. High 60.
posted: Mar 21 2007 at 6:30 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Mon, 19 Mar 2007Week Weather Outlook - Monday AM
A front will move through this evening, causing some showers Monday night. High pressure builds in for briefly cooler temperatures before a southwesterly return flow will bring in very mild temps for the end of the week. Temps will approach 70.
Currently, a cold front is expected to approach again on Saturday, bringing showers Saturday afternoon. Clearing, windy and cooler on Sunday is the current outlook, although timing will likely change.
posted: Mar 19 2007 at 6:21 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Sun, 18 Mar 2007Week Weather Outlook - Sun PM
A warm front will move through Monday night, bringing a chance of showers. Warmer temperatures will be in store for the end of the week and the weekend. Highs may approach 70. More details to follow.
posted: Mar 18 2007 at 6:57 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Sat, 17 Mar 2007Weather Update- Sat AM
An upper level disturbance will move through today, causing increased clouds and some snow showers.
Sat 3/17: Sun will give way to some clouds and snow flurries at times. Sunny breaks as well. WINDY and cold. High 37
Sun 3/18: Sunny, windy and colder than normal High 36.
posted: Mar 17 2007 at 7:16 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Fri, 16 Mar 2007Sleet Storm Update- Fri Night
Well, considering the QPF values (quantity water falling), even as sleet, I clearly underestimated the accumulations for this storm, although I correctly predicted that it would be mostly sleet and not much snow.
Latest NAM continues to show sleet ending between midnight and 2 AM here...should continue as sleet and not much if any snow. Latest GFS LAMPS output has temperatures in the low to mid 30s for Saturday.
Sat 3/17: Clouds lingering in the early morning, then a mix of clouds and sun. WINDY and cold. Some snow flurries possible during the day. High 35
Sun 3/18: Sunny, windy and colder than normal High 36.
posted: Mar 16 2007 at 9:04 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Sleet Storm Update- Fri PM
Just got the chance to check the models...
The heaviest precipitation will continue for the next 4-6 hours.... despite the cold temperatures at the surface, the models maintain warmer temps above 8000 feet. This still means sleet instead of snow for Philadelphia, although the sleet accumulations will probably be closer to 2 inches or so, up from my earlier estimate. Precip may end as a light coating of snow.
Roads will get a tricky and icy Friday evening as temperatures will be in the 20s. (It is already.) Icy conditions possible early Saturday morning.
Sat 3/17: Some light snow flurries lingering early morning, then a mix of clouds and sun. WINDY and cold. Some snow flurries possible during the day. High 37
Sun 3/18: Sunny, windy and colder than normal High 36.
posted: Mar 16 2007 at 3:07 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
March Storm Update- Fri AM
Both models last night crank out incredible amounts of rain/sleet for today, especially this afternoon and this evening. Around 3 inches of water expected to fall.
The thermal profile of the upper atmosphere is looking pretty warm, but the temperatures in the lower 5000 feet look close to or below freezing by this afternoon. This means we'll have rain mixing with and turning to sleet this afternoon and especially this evening. With such a dynamic system, some wet snow is also possible, but expect mostly rain, sleet and possibly freezing rain later this evening.
Little accumulation expected on roadways during the daytime hours, although flooding conditions possible later on some roadways. Things might get a little tricky and icy early Friday evening. Expect a slushing coating of sleet, maybe a coating of light snow on top later this evening. Less than an inch of slush, which may freeze. Icy conditions possible early Saturday morning.
Sat 3/17: Some light snow flurries lingering early morning, then clouds breaks for partly sunny skies. WINDY and cold. Some snow flurries possible during the day. High 38
Sun 3/18: Sunny, windy and colder than normal High 38.
posted: Mar 16 2007 at 4:57 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Thu, 15 Mar 2007March Storm Update- Thurs PM
An interesting consequence of an earlier start for Daylight Savings time....waiting for the new data is now one hour later. So the latest NAM data is just becoming available at 10 instead of 9 and the GFS data won't be available until even later.
Anyhow, the latest NAM has temperatures at 5000 feet being below freezing (read sleet) but temperatures at higher levels don't supports snow. March can be a bit different with snow parameters, but I don't expect much of any roadway accumulation in the immediate Philadephia area during the day, although precipitation rates will be heavy (over 2 inches water), especially afternoon and early evening Friday. A very rainy day, mixed with sleet and wet snow for much of the day. More wet than white.
Little accumulation on roadways during the daytime hours. Things might get a little tricky and icy early Friday evening. Expect a slushing coating to an inch or so when things wrap up around midnight Friday. Icy conditions possible early Saturday morning.
Sat 3/17: Some light snow flurries lingering early morning, then clouds breaks for partly sunny skies. WINDY and cold. Some snow flurries possible. High 38
Sun 3/18: Sunny windy and colder than normal High 43.
posted: Mar 15 2007 at 9:13 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
More sleet than snow for Friday afternoon- Thurs AM Update
Big change for Friday
A low pressure system will move through with a cold front on Friday. Cold air will move in during the day on Friday and precipitation will change during the afternoon from rain to sleet, however the latest models have the upper atmosphere too warm for a full changeover to snow. Nonetheless, difficult weather for early Friday evening, as heavy precipitation will be a mix of rain, sleet and wet snow. Perhaps an inch of accumulation of sleet and wet snow.
This will be an interesting weather event. I've found that the parameters for snow in March are slightly different than those during the true winter months and if that proves to be true tomorrow, the the forecasted sleet later in the day Friday will be a heavy, large flaked wet snow. We'll see.
Sat 3/17: Some light snow flurries lingering early morning, then clouds breaks for partly sunny skies. WINDY and cold. High 38
Sun 3/18: Sunny windy and colder than normal High 43.
posted: Mar 15 2007 at 6:08 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Wed, 14 Mar 2007Some snow for Friday night- Wed PM Update
Big change for Friday
A low pressure system will move through with a cold front on Friday. Cold air will move in and moisture around the deepening coastal low will result in some snow for Friday night, as temperatures drop rapidly. Currently NAM model has as much as 2-3 inches of snow by Saturday morning.
Sat 3/17: Some light wet snow lingering early morning, then mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks. WINDY. High 40
Sun 3/18: Mostly sunny and milder. High 46.
posted: Mar 14 2007 at 10:08 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Week and Weekend Outlook - Wed AM
The mild temperatures and southwesterly flow will bring moisture and small low pressure disturbances along an advancing cold frontal boundary over the next few days.
Rain showers are likely by this evening, Wednesday, and a prolonged period of intermittent showers and rain will be with us through Friday night.
Things get most interesting Friday night, as the the front will have passed over us and cold air will be in place...another disturbance will develop off the coastline, giving us a chance of wet snow Friday night before clearing conditions move in during Saturday.
Sat 3/17: Some light wet snow lingering early morning, then mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks. WINDY. High 42
Sun 3/18: Mostly sunny and milder. High 46.
posted: Mar 14 2007 at 4:07 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Tue, 13 Mar 2007Week and Weekend Outlook - Tue AM
Mild temperatures on a southwesterly flow will be with us for the next few days. A storm moving through the Great Lakes will bring rain to our area on Thursday afternoon through Friday.
For the weekend, colder windy weather returns. A fair amount of cloudiness is predicted for Saturday and more sun for Sunday.
posted: Mar 13 2007 at 6:58 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Sun, 11 Mar 2007Today's Forecast and Week Outlook -Sun AM Update
The cool front moved through last night and the rainfall was somewhat greater than expected by the models. Clear skies today, still mild.
For the week, warm temperatures will be with us through Thursday, although showers and rain will move in during the Wednesday-Thursday timeline.
Colder, windy weather returns for next weekend. Perhaps our last blast?
Sun 3/11: Sunny skies. Somewhat windy. High 54.
posted: Mar 11 2007 at 9:04 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Sat, 10 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Forecast- Sat Afternoon
We had more sun than expected today, which was a nice surprise.
A cool front is moving through PA at this time and the latest models have the bulk of the showers between 8PM and 2AM tonight. Skies will clear Sunday morning, but there will be some breezy/windy conditions on Sunday
Sun 3/11: Clouds break for mostly sunny skies by mid morning. Windy. High 50.
posted: Mar 10 2007 at 5:42 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Fri, 09 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Fri AM
Milder temperatures for the weekend, but a southwesterly flow will also bring some moisture and clouds. A cold front will move through Saturday night, with some light showers. The sun will return on Sunday. The forecast trend is towards more clouds on Saturday and more sun on Sunday.
Sat 3/10: Partly cloudy, then mostly cloudy by afternoon. Chance of showers at night. High 55.
Sun 3/11: Clouds break for mostly sunny skies by mid morning. Breezy. High 48.
posted: Mar 09 2007 at 6:20 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Thu, 08 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Thurs AM
Milder temperatures for the weekend, but a southwesterly flow will also bring some moisture and clouds. A cold front will move through Saturday night, with some light showers lasting into early Sunday morning. Skies will gradually clear by Sunday afternoon.
Sat 3/10: Mostly sunny early, then increasing clouds starting late morning into afternoon. Cloudy by late afternoon. Chance of showers at night. High 50.
Sun 3/11: Clouds early, becoming partly sunny during late morning/early afternoon. High 46.
posted: Mar 08 2007 at 7:53 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Wed, 07 Mar 2007Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
We got about 1 inch of snow and the roadways were fine this afternoon.
The cold flow will relax by late Friday, with moderating temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. Originally, it seemed that we would have rain on Sunday, BUT, things are looking much better. A weak front will move through Saturday night with some light showers, likely clearing on Sunday. Breezy conditions and seasonable temps.
Sat 3/10: Mostly sunny early, increasing clouds in the afternoon. Chance of showers at night. High 54.
Sun 3/11: Becoming mostly sunny after early morning clouds. Breezy. High 51.
posted: Mar 07 2007 at 7:12 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Today's Light Snow - Wed AM Update
The snow started a bit earlier than the models showed. Last night's 1AM NAM run shows 0.18 inches water falling, mostly between 8AM and 1 PM, ending as flurries after 2 PM. Last night's GFS is similar. So the snow will be over by late afternoon.
Trying to balance the consistent QPF amounts with the tendency for clipper QPF values to be overpredicted. The snow-water ratio will be high-- this will be a light, powdery snowfall. This suggests 1-3 inches of snow (lower range most likely) with dark roadways having significant solar insolation and melting from the March sun.
Solar insolation on dark roadways will reduce the impact on travel.
A warm up is expected for the weekend, but likely with clouds and there's a chance of showers, especially on Sunday.
posted: Mar 07 2007 at 6:27 am
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Tue, 06 Mar 2007Snow for Wed - Tues PM Update
The latest NAM just became available.
It shows 0.16 inches water total, starting about 7-8 AM and tapering after 1 PM. Total snow accumulation 1-3 inches on grassy surfaces, with the lower end of the spectrum most likely.
Solar insolation on dark roadways will reduce the impact on travel.
A warm up is expected for the weekend, but likely with clouds and there's a chance of showers, especially on Sunday.
posted: Mar 06 2007 at 9:24 pm
[/weather/mar07] permanent link
Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.