theweatherguy's website

theweatherguy's website

Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

About this blog

theweatherguy's website,

"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."

Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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12: Jan Feb Mar Apr
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11: Jan Feb Mar Apr
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10: Jan Feb Mar Apr
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06: Jan Feb Mar Apr
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Find

Sun, 22 Jan 2012
New Bird Feeder Video Cam
Check out our bird feeders on live video. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/birdwatchdeck
When not video streaming on UStream, please check our our BirdFeeder Webcam (with 1 minute updates) on either one of these URLs: http://theweatherguy.net/images/camupload.html.
If that one isn't live, then check out this URL: http://camupload.com/gschreiber One of those URLs will be active when the UStream video isn't live.

posted: Jan 22 2012 at 1:16 pm

[/general] permanent link
Sat, 03 Sep 2011
New NAM Weather Model rolling out Sept 20
A significant advance in the NAM model (North American Mesoscale) will be rolled out as operational on Sept 20th. The model has been under development for some time and is being run as a parallel experimental NAM-B model. This model will continue to be named the NAM. The model will have higher resolution and many other improvements.n See link for details.

posted: Sep 03 2011 at 8:10 am

[/general] permanent link
Wed, 25 Feb 2009
NGM Model being Retired Next Week!
For you weather model lovers, the NGM model (Nested Grid Model), the major weather model of the late 1980s and early 1990s will be run for the last time on March 3, 2009. At the time of its introduction (I think in 1987), the NGM model was considered a large improvement over the earlier model, the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh Model) . Further improvement of the NGM model was discontinued in 1991 and the then-new Eta model was developed shortly thereafter and fine tuned during the late 1990s up until 2006. In May 2006, the Eta was futher modified by physics of the WRF model and was renamed the NAM.

Despite it's age, the NGM was still run twice a day to the present time. It's statistical version, the NGM-MOS was also used in a number of forecasting products.
The NGM model is being retired because it has been surplanted by the more recent WRF-NAM (Weather Research Forecasting-North American Mesoscale) and GFS (Global Forecast System) models in recent years.
It was always fun to look at this model output. The model wasn't bad, but wasn't that good either. Numerical weather forecasting and modeling has come a long way since 1987. I still found that the NGM was very good at predicting clearing skies after a cold frontal passage and sometimes did better at predicting cloud cover.
More information can be found at http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/changes/ngmremove_mdl.php

posted: Feb 25 2009 at 6:15 pm

[/general] permanent link
Sat, 21 Feb 2009
Updated this site to Blosxom Version 2.12
I've updated the code of this website to blosxom version 2.12. If you've had trouble with RSS feeds working, try it now. Copy the RSS code to your news/rss reader from the link on the left.
See microblog updates on the weather on twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy

posted: Feb 21 2009 at 9:09 pm

[/general] permanent link
Fri, 17 Oct 2008
Winter Climate Prediction
With this coming weekend being a good reminder that colder weather is on the way, I thought I'd share my current thinking about the upcoming winter.
Let me first say that climate prediction and weather prediction are totally different fields, and that I usually stay away from climate prediction. However, I believe this coming winter will be influenced by a particular effect of the current extreme low in the sunspot cycle.
The sun undergoes periodic and relatively predictable increases and decreases in sunspot number. These cyles, lasting about 11 years had their last peak in the year 2000. This was the peak of cycle #23.
Cycle #24 was supposed to have started some time ago, but over the past year, there has been a paucity of sunspots, in fact, we have recently completed the longest stretch of time in many years with no sunpots at all. With few or no sunspots, the solar flux (energy coming from the sun) has been at a significant nadir for many months. I believe this accounted for the relatively cool summer we had.
With the solar flux still at an extremely low level, I expect this coming winter to be exceptionally cold, perhaps the coldest we have had in many years.
There are many online sites that discuss ramifications of this lull in the sunspot cycle. Search for Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 24 on Google for more information.
By the way, over the past few weeks, the first sunspots of the beginning of Cycle 24 have developed. So the sun is no longer spotless. The solar flux, though, remains at just 40% of the level we had in 2000. So we have a way to go to warm up this atmosphere.

posted: Oct 17 2008 at 9:04 pm

[/general] permanent link
Sun, 02 Oct 2005
Updated This Site!
Well, as cool as having "writebacks" comments/questions were on the site,I've had to eliminate that functionality temporarily because older posts were filled with bot-created spam entries that simply were in poor taste.
So, to contact me, use the link on the navigational bar to the left. I'll see if I can protect that functionality in the future.
The RSS XML version of the site is now working. (If you copied an older URL from earlier last week, please update your subscription by copying the new link associated with the RSS graphic on the left.) The correct URL to subscribe to the RSS Feed is http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi/?flav=rss
Yahoo news and my.yahoo.com allows you subscribe to RSS feeds. There are also many free RSS/XML and blog aggregators--separate programs that allow you to subscribe to news, blogs, and RSS feeds. I use Thunderbird (www.mozilla.org) for email and news/blogs/RSS subscriptions.

posted: Oct 02 2005 at 7:11 pm

[/general] permanent link
Thu, 29 Sep 2005
New RSS Feed for this Site!
Right click on the RSS graphic and copy the XML link for this site http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi/?flav=rss to your Newsgroup or RSS reader, to receive the weather updates automatically in your inbox. All you need is an email program like Thunderbird and use its RSS/newsgroup ability to receive the weatherguy's weather automatically with your email. Use the question link below if you have any questions!

posted: Sep 29 2005 at 12:12 pm

[/general] permanent link
Wed, 28 Sep 2005
Testing RSS feed!
Just a test of RSS Syndicaton

posted: Sep 28 2005 at 6:29 am

[/general] permanent link
Tue, 27 Sep 2005
New RSS Feed for this Site!
Right click on the RSS graphic and copy the link for this site to receive the weather updates automatically in your inbox. All you need is an email program like Thunderbird and use its RSS/newsgroup ability to receive the weatherguy's weather automatically with your email. Use the question link below if you have any questions!

posted: Sep 27 2005 at 7:02 pm

[/general] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sun, 22 Jan 2012 New Bird Feeder Video Cam Check out our bird feeders on live video. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/birdwatchdeck When not video streaming on UStream, please check our our BirdFeeder Webcam (with 1 minute updates) on either one of these URLs: http://theweatherguy.net/images/camupload.html. If that one isn't live, then check out this URL: http://camupload.com/gschreiber One of those URLs will be active when the UStream video isn't live. posted: Jan 22 2012 at 1:16 pm [/general] permanent link Sat, 03 Sep 2011 New NAM Weather Model rolling out Sept 20 A significant advance in the NAM model (North American Mesoscale) will be rolled out as operational on Sept 20th. The model has been under development for some time and is being run as a parallel experimental NAM-B model. This model will continue to be named the NAM. The model will have higher resolution and many other improvements.n See link for details. posted: Sep 03 2011 at 8:10 am [/general] permanent link Wed, 25 Feb 2009 NGM Model being Retired Next Week! For you weather model lovers, the NGM model (Nested Grid Model), the major weather model of the late 1980s and early 1990s will be run for the last time on March 3, 2009. At the time of its introduction (I think in 1987), the NGM model was considered a large improvement over the earlier model, the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh Model) . Further improvement of the NGM model was discontinued in 1991 and the then-new Eta model was developed shortly thereafter and fine tuned during the late 1990s up until 2006. In May 2006, the Eta was futher modified by physics of the WRF model and was renamed the NAM. Despite it's age, the NGM was still run twice a day to the present time. It's statistical version, the NGM-MOS was also used in a number of forecasting products. The NGM model is being retired because it has been surplanted by the more recent WRF-NAM (Weather Research Forecasting-North American Mesoscale) and GFS (Global Forecast System) models in recent years. It was always fun to look at this model output. The model wasn't bad, but wasn't that good either. Numerical weather forecasting and modeling has come a long way since 1987. I still found that the NGM was very good at predicting clearing skies after a cold frontal passage and sometimes did better at predicting cloud cover. More information can be found at http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/changes/ngmremove_mdl.php posted: Feb 25 2009 at 6:15 pm [/general] permanent link Sat, 21 Feb 2009 Updated this site to Blosxom Version 2.12 I've updated the code of this website to blosxom version 2.12. If you've had trouble with RSS feeds working, try it now. Copy the RSS code to your news/rss reader from the link on the left. See microblog updates on the weather on twitter.com Follow me as: theweatherguy posted: Feb 21 2009 at 9:09 pm [/general] permanent link Fri, 17 Oct 2008 Winter Climate Prediction With this coming weekend being a good reminder that colder weather is on the way, I thought I'd share my current thinking about the upcoming winter. Let me first say that climate prediction and weather prediction are totally different fields, and that I usually stay away from climate prediction. However, I believe this coming winter will be influenced by a particular effect of the current extreme low in the sunspot cycle. The sun undergoes periodic and relatively predictable increases and decreases in sunspot number. These cyles, lasting about 11 years had their last peak in the year 2000. This was the peak of cycle #23. Cycle #24 was supposed to have started some time ago, but over the past year, there has been a paucity of sunspots, in fact, we have recently completed the longest stretch of time in many years with no sunpots at all. With few or no sunspots, the solar flux (energy coming from the sun) has been at a significant nadir for many months. I believe this accounted for the relatively cool summer we had. With the solar flux still at an extremely low level, I expect this coming winter to be exceptionally cold, perhaps the coldest we have had in many years. There are many online sites that discuss ramifications of this lull in the sunspot cycle. Search for Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 24 on Google for more information. By the way, over the past few weeks, the first sunspots of the beginning of Cycle 24 have developed. So the sun is no longer spotless. The solar flux, though, remains at just 40% of the level we had in 2000. So we have a way to go to warm up this atmosphere. posted: Oct 17 2008 at 9:04 pm [/general] permanent link Sun, 02 Oct 2005 Updated This Site! Well, as cool as having "writebacks" comments/questions were on the site,I've had to eliminate that functionality temporarily because older posts were filled with bot-created spam entries that simply were in poor taste. So, to contact me, use the link on the navigational bar to the left. I'll see if I can protect that functionality in the future. The RSS XML version of the site is now working. (If you copied an older URL from earlier last week, please update your subscription by copying the new link associated with the RSS graphic on the left.) The correct URL to subscribe to the RSS Feed is http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi/?flav=rss Yahoo news and my.yahoo.com allows you subscribe to RSS feeds. There are also many free RSS/XML and blog aggregators--separate programs that allow you to subscribe to news, blogs, and RSS feeds. I use Thunderbird (www.mozilla.org) for email and news/blogs/RSS subscriptions. posted: Oct 02 2005 at 7:11 pm [/general] permanent link Thu, 29 Sep 2005 New RSS Feed for this Site! Right click on the RSS graphic and copy the XML link for this site http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi/?flav=rss to your Newsgroup or RSS reader, to receive the weather updates automatically in your inbox. All you need is an email program like Thunderbird and use its RSS/newsgroup ability to receive the weatherguy's weather automatically with your email. Use the question link below if you have any questions! posted: Sep 29 2005 at 12:12 pm [/general] permanent link Wed, 28 Sep 2005 Testing RSS feed! Just a test of RSS Syndicaton posted: Sep 28 2005 at 6:29 am [/general] permanent link Tue, 27 Sep 2005 New RSS Feed for this Site! Right click on the RSS graphic and copy the link for this site to receive the weather updates automatically in your inbox. All you need is an email program like Thunderbird and use its RSS/newsgroup ability to receive the weatherguy's weather automatically with your email. Use the question link below if you have any questions! posted: Sep 27 2005 at 7:02 pm [/general] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.